Post Revis Myths and Spin

Rob0729 · Mar 19, 2015

Ok, listening around town to people and the media, it seems that both sides of the argument are developing these annoying little myths and spins since he has left. I just want to address some of them:

Oh no! We are going back to 2011 all over again! I have heard this a lot in recent weeks. When did 2011 become a bad year for the Pats? That year, the Pats were in the Super Bowl and even were leading the game with a minute left in it. And even focusing on the defense, that defense wasn't nearly as bad as people give it credit for. The Pats did not give up more than 27 points on defense in any game. Yes, it was the dreaded "bend, but don't break defense" but the key point was it rarely broke. It wasn't a great defense, but it wasn't horrible either. It was good enough to get to Super Bowl with what looks to be a worse offense on paper than the Pats will have this upcoming season.

Revis has lost a step and is already 30 and maybe the Pats were concerned about that. The Jerry Thornton argument. It is silly because he is still elite and should be elite for the next two to three years. The Pats did not drop out of the bidding because of his age or his decline in production.

The Pats are going back to letting mediocre and bad QBs look like Peyton Manning. This never happened. Sure occasionally a mediocre or bad QB would have a really good game vs. the Patriots, but overall these QBs got a lot yards and garbage time TDs, but that was because of the "bend, but don't break" philosophy and the Pats protecting sizable leads. Sure if you looked at the stat lines, these QBs had great games. Watching the games you so a lot of yards with little points and a lot of garbage time stat padding.

Last year the Pats were great on 3rd downs and the Pats will go back to sucking at it. The Pats were not nearly as good on third downs as people want to believe. They allowed opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 40.2% rate or 16th in the league. In 2011 (since everyone wants to bring up that year), the Pats allowed opponents to convert 43.1% which was 28th in the league. Yes, they were worse in 2011, but not worlds worse as people want to make it out to be. The Pats improved on third downs, but didn't cure the problems. Hell in 2009, the Pats allowed opponents to only convert 37.1% of their passes without an elite CB.

Browner isn't necessary without Revis. I think this is partially true, but not 100% true. Browner would certainly have a role in this defense without Revis, BUT his role would be reduced. If the Pats use a lot more zone (which is going to happen, but we don't know how much), his value to the team drops because he is not a zone coverage CB. But they could use him on man plays and certain zone situations. The question is was his salary and cap hit worth his reduced role? Obviously, the Pats didn't think so.

Galeb · Mar 19, 2015

People are really saying Revis is losing a step? He was a monster this year.

Tunescribe · Mar 19, 2015

Rob0729 said:
Ok, listening around town to people and the media, it seems that both sides of the argument are developing these annoying little myths and spins since he has left. I just want to address some of them:

Oh no! We are going back to 2011 all over again! I have heard this a lot in recent weeks. When did 2011 become a bad year for the Pats? That year, the Pats were in the Super Bowl and even were leading the game with a minute left in it. And even focusing on the defense, that defense wasn't nearly as bad as people give it credit for. The Pats did not give up more than 27 points on defense in any game. Yes, it was the dreaded "bend, but don't break defense" but the key point was it rarely broke. It wasn't a great defense, but it wasn't horrible either. It was good enough to get to Super Bowl with what looks to be a worse offense on paper than the Pats will have this upcoming season.

Revis has lost a step and is already 30 and maybe the Pats were concerned about that. The Jerry Thornton argument. It is silly because he is still elite and should be elite for the next two to three years. The Pats did not drop out of the bidding because of his age or his decline in production.

The Pats are going back to letting mediocre and bad QBs look like Peyton Manning. This never happened. Sure occasionally a mediocre or bad QB would have a really good game vs. the Patriots, but overall these QBs got a lot yards and garbage time TDs, but that was because of the "bend, but don't break" philosophy and the Pats protecting sizable leads. Sure if you looked at the stat lines, these QBs had great games. Watching the games you so a lot of yards with little points and a lot of garbage time stat padding.

Last year the Pats were great on 3rd downs and the Pats will go back to sucking at it. The Pats were not nearly as good on third downs as people want to believe. They allowed opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 40.2% rate or 16th in the league. In 2011 (since everyone wants to bring up that year), the Pats allowed opponents to convert 43.1% which was 28th in the league. Yes, they were worse in 2011, but not worlds worse as people want to make it out to be. The Pats improved on third downs, but didn't cure the problems. Hell in 2009, the Pats allowed opponents to only convert 37.1% of their passes without an elite CB.

Browner isn't necessary without Revis. I think this is partially true, but not 100% true. Browner would certainly have a role in this defense without Revis, BUT his role would be reduced. If the Pats use a lot more zone (which is going to happen, but we don't know how much), his value to the team drops because he is not a zone coverage CB. But they could use him on man plays and certain zone situations. The question is was his salary and cap hit worth his reduced role? Obviously, the Pats didn't think so.

Nice perspectives.

voluntarysaftey · Mar 19, 2015

Only problem I have with letting Browner go is now we need to find two good zone CBs. With Browner, we only needed to find one good/decent man CB.
I guess finding two zone CBs is easier/cheaper than finding one man CB

Rob0729 · Mar 19, 2015

Galeb said:
People are really saying Revis is losing a step? He was a monster this year.

I have heard it. But that is what Jerry Thornton on WEEI is selling. It isn't a majority, but it is being thrown around there.

Funny, the Jets fans were saying it last year, but now they are changing their tune.

RobertWeathers · Mar 19, 2015

Galeb said:
People are really saying Revis is losing a step? He was a monster this year.

It is logical to say that an athlete at 22 or 23 is quicker and faster than an 30 year old athlete who has had a major knee injury. Reflexes slow down as well. Different people. Different rates. Darrell Green was still playing at a Pro Bowl level at 37 years old. Herschel Walker was running a 4.4 at 48 years old or something like that. Everyone is different.

It is also possible for a 30 year old athlete to be a better player than a 22 year old one. Experience. Takes care of his body. Studies film, etc.

I'm not an expert but it seemed to me that Revis wasn't burned deep (or often by anyone) really by speed guys as his technique is incredible and knew where his help was. Plus he still has the jets when needed.

Did he lose a step? Maybe a fraction of one. Is he not as good of a player? I couldn't tell.

patsfan-1982 · Mar 19, 2015

the pats paid 20 million to two starting CB's to be 17th vs the pass and at times could not stop the 27th ranked Seahawks pass offense in the SB. at lest when the eagles gave 20 million to two CB's they were in the top 10 vs the pass,

with McCourty over top and a bunch of CB's on the roster who have started games and played vs #1 WR's I think they can find a way to be 17th vs the pass

50-yard-line · Mar 19, 2015

Revis remains a top1-4 CB in the league (Sherman, Haden and Peterson are there, too, I think) and I expect he'll be so for the next couple of years. The guy is really great and works as hard as anyone with film study and perfecting his body/techniques. I remain a big fan of the player. I wish they had found a way to keep him around.

My only problem with Browner is that I can't figure out why they couldn't have traded him on that team-friendly (2/9.6 with no guaranteed money) for some value. Certainly that would have been a better value to a team than the 3/18 he got (at 31-years-old).

It might have been a miscalculation by the Pats on what the market would bear for the guy, or maybe they were just doing him a solid after his performance here and let him go out and get what he deserved after restoring his stock in the NFL. I hope that's what it was 9along with getting Wilfork his snaps in the last game to reach his incentives, and now rewarding Ninkovich for his herculean efforts).

Easy to root for a team that once in a while offers a pat on the back to the guys who actually do the dirty work.

hwc · Mar 19, 2015

I don't think dumping Browner had anything to do with Revis. I just don't think Belichick and the Pats coaches graded his play that highly. Not highly enough to justify his contract.

He's a one dimensional player. His large number of penalties (19, I believe) surely knocked his grade down.

There's really no other explanation for dumping his fairly reasonable contract. They just didn't see a starting role for him going forward.

FibSeq13478 · Mar 19, 2015

patsfan-1982 said:
the pats paid 20 million to two starting CB's to be 17th vs the pass and at times could not stop the 27th ranked Seahawks pass offense in the SB. at lest when the eagles gave 20 million to two CB's they were in the top 10 vs the pass,

To be fair, the super bowl poor performance in the 2nd and 3rd quarters had everything to do with poor coaching and strategy - Revis & Browner played very well- hard to understand why they thought they could match up Matthews and lockette with the much smaller Arrington/Ryan when Browner was available.

PatsDeb · Mar 19, 2015

Last year the Pats were great on 3rd downs and the Pats will go back to sucking at it.The Pats were not nearly as good on third downs as people want to believe. They allowed opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 40.2% rate or 16th in the league. In 2011 (since everyone wants to bring up that year), the Pats allowed opponents to convert 43.1% which was 28th in the league. Yes, they were worse in 2011, but not worlds worse as people want to make it out to be. The Pats improved on third downs, but didn't cure the problems. Hell in 2009, the Pats allowed opponents to only convert 37.1% of their passes without an elite CB.

I'm sorry, but 16th to 28th is worlds worse. We were terrible on D in 2011 and it's a wonder we got as far as we did. I hated seeing 3rd and long completed time after time after time. I don't think we're going back there, at least not willingly. I think BB accepted that Revis was a one year rental, helped us get the prize we all desired, and now we have to move on. He looked around, saw there was nobody close to Revis available to pair with Browner, and quickly decided that he was going to have to go with another scheme next year. Back to a strong front 7 with a weaker secondary, but at least one strong trustworthy component (McCourtey) in place. Get rid of Browner as now he no longer fits the scheme and in that scenario, his penalties aren't worth it; say goodbye to Vince as he can no longer hold the middle like he used to. Shore up the linebackers and start signing the best available d-lineman (or the ones you think you can best coach up). Get another good TE to pair with Gronk & shore up the running game. Target whatever you can't get in free agency in the draft.

I think we'll be fine and competitive again this year. Revis is a great player but we couldn't justify breaking the bank to get him back. We still have Brady & Gronk. Keep calm and soldier on.

Oswlek · Mar 19, 2015

FibSeq13478 said:
hard to understand why they thought they could match up Matthews and lockette with the much smaller Arrington/Ryan

Matthews hadn't caught a pass in his career at that point. I suspect most coaches would use their top two guys elsewhere.

Rob0729 · Mar 19, 2015

PatsDeb said:
Last year the Pats were great on 3rd downs and the Pats will go back to sucking at it.The Pats were not nearly as good on third downs as people want to believe. They allowed opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 40.2% rate or 16th in the league. In 2011 (since everyone wants to bring up that year), the Pats allowed opponents to convert 43.1% which was 28th in the league. Yes, they were worse in 2011, but not worlds worse as people want to make it out to be. The Pats improved on third downs, but didn't cure the problems. Hell in 2009, the Pats allowed opponents to only convert 37.1% of their passes without an elite CB.

I'm sorry, but 16th to 28th is worlds worse. We were terrible on D in 2011 and it's a wonder we got as far as we did. I hated seeing 3rd and long completed time after time after time. I don't think we're going back there, at least not willingly. I think BB accepted that Revis was a one year rental, helped us get the prize we all desired, and now we have to move on. He looked around, saw there was nobody close to Revis available to pair with Browner, and quickly decided that he was going to have to go with another scheme next year. Back to a strong front 7 with a weaker secondary, but at least one strong trustworthy component (McCourtey) in place. Get rid of Browner as now he no longer fits the scheme and in that scenario, his penalties aren't worth it; say goodbye to Vince as he can no longer hold the middle like he used to. Shore up the linebackers and start signing the best available d-lineman (or the ones you think you can best coach up). Get another good TE to pair with Gronk & shore up the running game. Target whatever you can't get in free agency in the draft.

I think we'll be fine and competitive again this year. Revis is a great player but we couldn't justify breaking the bank to get him back. We still have Brady & Gronk. Keep calm and soldier on.

The percentages are not worlds worse. But the point is that people act like the Pats were great on third downs last year and they weren't.

But each year is different. So ranking would be different each years. If the Pats had the 2011 conversion percentage last year, they would have been 24th or 25th. Other years they might have been 30th.

Galeb · Mar 19, 2015

patsfan-1982 said:
the pats paid 20 million to two starting CB's to be 17th vs the pass and at times could not stop the 27th ranked Seahawks pass offense in the SB. at lest when the eagles gave 20 million to two CB's they were in the top 10 vs the pass,

with McCourty over top and a bunch of CB's on the roster who have started games and played vs #1 WR's I think they can find a way to be 17th vs the pass

17th vs. the pass when you consider the 6 game gauntlet they went through is pretty fricken good. When you combine it with the number of blowouts the Pats were the victor of, it's pretty awesome.

billdog3484 · Mar 19, 2015

patsfan-1982 said:
the pats paid 20 million to two starting CB's to be 17th vs the pass and at times could not stop the 27th ranked Seahawks pass offense in the SB. at lest when the eagles gave 20 million to two CB's they were in the top 10 vs the pass,

with McCourty over top and a bunch of CB's on the roster who have started games and played vs #1 WR's I think they can find a way to be 17th vs the pass

at times couldnt stop the seahawks????i mean, i guess thats true. but my eyes told me the seahawks were a little more lucky passing vs us than good. they had nothing for most of the game outside 4 bombs

alamo · Mar 19, 2015

Rob0729 said:
Last year the Pats were great on 3rd downs and the Pats will go back to sucking at it. The Pats were not nearly as good on third downs as people want to believe. They allowed opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 40.2% rate or 16th in the league. In 2011 (since everyone wants to bring up that year), the Pats allowed opponents to convert 43.1% which was 28th in the league. Yes, they were worse in 2011, but not worlds worse as people want to make it out to be.

IMO a slightly misleading stat-- that 40.2% was regular season only.

In the 2014 postseason they were significantly better at 23.3%. (2011 postseason they were worse at 45.7%).

Brady2Moss · Mar 19, 2015

Defense never got off the field in the super bowl in 2011, TOP was a huge issue and a huge reason why we lost. Painting that defense as "not bad" is a joke on many levels.

JMC00 · Mar 19, 2015

PatsDeb said:
I'm sorry, but 16th to 28th is worlds worse. We were terrible on D in 2011 and it's a wonder we got as far as we did. I hated seeing 3rd and long completed time after time after time.

3rd down conversions allowed

2014- 84 of 209
2011- 87 of 202

RobertWeathers · Mar 19, 2015

Brady2Moss said:
Defense never got off the field in the super bowl in 2011, TOP was a huge issue and a huge reason why we lost. Painting that defense as "not bad" is a joke on many levels.

...and that team did not have Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins or Donte Hightower.

People seem to think that by adding Revis to the 2011 defense wins that Super Bowl. It doesn't.

Mack Herron · Mar 19, 2015

I think that the appropriate comparison is 2014 with 2015, which remains incomplete and hypothetical. The obvious thing is that we lost 2 starting CBs, one of whom is an irreplaceable HOF player, so it is not unreasonable to fear that our pass defense would project to be worse in 2015 than it was in 2014. We could always draft Mike Haynes II, but I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that as of today we would be fielding inferior talent.

Post Revis Myths and Spin

PatsFans.com Supporter

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

PatsFans.com Supporter

Third String But Playing on Special Teams

PatsFans.com Supporter

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

In the Starting Line-Up

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

In the Starting Line-Up

On the Game Day Roster

PatsFans.com Supporter

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

PatsFans.com Supporter

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

PatsFans.com Supporter

praedica numerum!

2nd Team Getting Their First Start

Pro Bowl Player

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

Pro Bowl Player

Similar threads