From a draft perspective, I have hit a rut. I was rolling along assuming that Revis would be a part of the defense and then POW!
The problem is, I feel like in most cases, the Patriots go into a draft with no glaring needs. This gives them the options and flexibility to move around and get their guys. This year, the needs are piling up (CBx2, OG, DT, LB)
I don't want it to become a situation where they are reaching for players to fill needs. I assume they won't, but that already got me in trouble.
That being said, if Peters is there at 32, I would take him. It is looking more and more that Waynes, Peters, and maybe even Johnson are off the board by then, and I don't see any other CB worth that high of pick. I am not a huge PJ Williams guy. His speed, COD, and inability to turn and find the ball scare me. He could be a penalty machine in the NFL if doesn't improve in those areas.
If there were a "sympathize" button I would hit it, repeatedly if possible. My whole defensive blueprint and draft board have been blown up in the past week. I'm not sure that's entirely a bad thing - there is great creative value in deviating from convention and being forced to re-invent - but it's certainly much trickier.
A few thoughts:
1. I completely agree about not reaching to fill needs. That is the door that leads to perdition. Like you, I doubt the Pats will do that. The closest example that I can think of to going into a draft with a glaring need was 2010, after the Pats allowed Ben Watson to leave in FA and cut Chris Baker. That was the strongest prospective TE class in memory, which helped. Even so, the Pats made a strong play to trade for Greg Olsen from Chicago, before balking at the asking price (reportedly a 2nd). They double dipped with Gronk and Hernandez, and we know how that played out.
2. I agree about Marcus Peters being a high value target. He's the best press-man CB prospect I've seen in a couple of drafts. Right now he's probably #2 after Todd Gurley on my draft board. I think both are top 15 talents, and getting that kind of talent later on in the draft is what it's all about.
3. I know Manx likes PJ Williams, and I like his physicality, but his long speed and COD scare the hell out of me. I think he'd make a terrific #2 CB, but I think that I can get Eric Rowe or Josh Shaw to fill that role later - hopefully 40-50 picks later.
4. I think there's a good chance the Pats will do something between now and the draft to address the CB situation with a veteran. Tramon Williams and Peanut Tillman are still FAs. A trade could be explored. So I would continue to scout the position aggressively but keep an open mind.
Right now, my algorithm looks something like this:
1. Take Gurley if he's on the board at 32. If Gurley and Peters are both on the board, consider whether there is a way to get both. If not, consider whether you can get Peters and another top RB (Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, David Johnson).
2. If Gurley is off the board, take Peters if he's available, then try to get one of the other top RBs, Hardison and Marpet (or other quality offensive lineman, though I'm still focused on Marpet).
3. If Gurley and Peters are both gone, look at who else at CB is available and what their value is. Consider trading back to grab Byron Jones or Kevin Johnson if they are still available, but don't reach.
My worst case scenario at CB would be to ignore the position until our projected 3rd round comp pick, then double dip there and on day 3. We could potentially get guys like Eric Rowe, Josh Shaw, Ronald Darby, Nick Marshall, etc. Not bad for the long term, but certainly not ideal for 2015.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
