The Patriots will pick a RB in the first 2 rounds

dryheat44 said:

Nope. I think with Blount and Gray under contract for a big back, James White as a 3rd down back, and Tyler Gaffney as an option in between, plus Brandon Bolden, who will be on the team regardless for ST reasons, I'll be stunned if we draft an RB, unless something ridiculous happens like Gurley falling to the 3rd round. BB might even decide a cheap one-year deal for Ridley is preferable if the market doesn't develop for him.

More likely, I think, is to sign some cheap vet free agents, such as Helu or Pierre Thomas (whom BB has tried to trade for previously), for competition for the third-down role, and sign a street free agent RB or two for the practice squad. I'm fairly certain, though, that BB feels that he got his Vereen replacement last year, and with a full year of practicing in the system, White is capable.

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If Gurley falls to the 3rd round, the Pats won't touch him because something major will have happened..

Unfortunately, Helu is gone to the Raiders.. Pierre Thomas would be interesting.. I haven't watched Thomas enough to know how he is at blocking in the back-field on passing attempts.. Fill me in?

Let's see ......

NT, CB, OG, TE

The New England Patriots already have six running backs under contract for training camp:

Blount
Bolden
Gaffney
Gray
Lewis
White

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster

ATippett56 said:

Let's see ......

NT, CB, OG, TE

The New England Patriots already have six running backs under contract for training camp:

Blount
Bolden
Gaffney
Gray
Lewis
White

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster

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Already stated with the way FA has gone (which i did not at all predict) I have said this position is no longer one i hold at least at this point. It was always tentative based on how FA unfolded as of course that determines at least part of your draft approach.

Too many other areas now must be addressed now as things stand. Depending on how FA unfolds between now and the draft that MIGHT change.

On a side note the list of RBs you have named did not change and I did not consider it a big deal. None of those guys stop you from getting a true lead back or a 3rd down specialist.

Bolden - STer and emergency.
Develin - (I'll add him too) - FB and roll player
Blount - hot and cold back. Ideally a #2 and a meh #1
Gaffney - unproven
Grey - 1 great game but unproven
Lewis - unproven
White - unproven

I don't see anyone here that leads me to believe this position could not be upgraded substantially.

BobDigital said:

Already stated with the way FA has gone (which i did not at all predict) I have said this position is no longer one i hold at least at this point. It was always tentative based on how FA unfolded as of course that determines at least part of your draft approach.

Too many other areas now must be addressed now as things stand. Depending on how FA unfolds between now and the draft that MIGHT change.

On a side note the list of RBs you have named did not change and I did not consider it a big deal. None of those guys stop you from getting a true lead back or a 3rd down specialist.

Bolden - STer and emergency.
Develin - (I'll add him too) - FB and roll player
Blount - hot and cold back. Ideally a #2 and a meh #1
Gaffney - unproven
Grey - 1 great game but unproven
Lewis - unproven
White - unproven

I don't see anyone here that leads me to believe this position could not be upgraded substantially.

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The New England Patriots are not going to improve the running game going forward with Josh Kline and Chris Barker as the starting offensive guards. Furthermore, I'm not sold on Ryan Wendell as a starting offensive guard, especially when it comes to improving the running game. Marcus Cannon proved to be a flop at offensive guard and Cameron Fleming was inactive against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.

ATippett56 said:

The New England Patriots are not going to improve the running game going forward with Josh Kline and Chris Barker as the starting offensive guards. Furthermore, I'm not sold on Ryan Wendell as a starting offensive guard, especially when it comes to improving the running game. Marcus Cannon proved to be a flop at offensive guard and Cameron Fleming was inactive against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.

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Fleming was inactive because Belichick had no intention of even trying to run the ball that game..

ATippett56 said:

The New England Patriots are not going to improve the running game going forward with Josh Kline and Chris Barker as the starting offensive guards. Furthermore, I'm not sold on Ryan Wendell as a starting offensive guard, especially when it comes to improving the running game. Marcus Cannon proved to be a flop at offensive guard and Cameron Fleming was inactive against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.

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Sure at least 1 guard spot needs to be upgraded and very possibly both. I was simply pointing out it is not like we have great backs that are only held back by a bad run blocking OL. Connolly/Wendell were hardly a fearsome run blocking tandem last year surely. But to be far is it not like we had McCoy or Lynch even an Eddie Lacy back there.

BobDigital said:

Sure at least 1 guard spot needs to be upgraded and very possibly both. I was simply pointing out it is not like we have great backs that are only held back by a bad run blocking OL. Connolly/Wendell were hardly a fearsome run blocking tandem last year surely. But to be far is it not like we had McCoy or Lynch even an Eddie Lacy back there.

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It wouldn't have mattered if we had McCoy, Lacy or Lynch back there with the way the O-line wise. You're just going around in circles and taking pot shots at the RBs again..

Honestly I think Blount is being held back by the o-line. I wouldn't call him a great back but unlike Antowain Smith for example he is dynamite on the second level of the defense.

If we had some great guards that could get him there with regularity I think Blount's production explodes. Linebackers just seem to roll off him. It's picking through the trash at the LOS where he's a liability.

Also a point nobody seems to have made yet, despite this being kind of a dead horse:

A RB in the first is highly unlikely because of the optional fifth year. For any pick outside the Top Ten (I think) its the average of the 3rd through 25th highest contracts at that position. For a RB this year that's between $4 and $5 million, or between $3 and $4 million more than any RB on this roster is currently making.

I don't see the Pats ever picking up the option year on a RB they've drafted. The whole point of drafting these RBs is to get them cheap.

If the Pats did draft Gurley at 32, they'd have him on the field at most 3 years. You'd have to be really high on him for that to be good value.

Far better to draft a position in the first where the option year is in play from a cap management perspective.

unoriginal said:

Also a point nobody seems to have made yet, despite this being kind of a dead horse:

A RB in the first is highly unlikely because of the optional fifth year. For any pick outside the Top Ten (I think) its the average of the 3rd through 25th highest contracts at that position. For a RB this year that's between $4 and $5 million, or between $3 and $4 million more than any RB on this roster is currently making.

I don't see the Pats ever picking up the option year on a RB they've drafted. The whole point of drafting these RBs is to get them cheap.

If the Pats did draft Gurley at 32, they'd have him on the field at most 3 years. You'd have to be really high on him for that to be good value.

Far better to draft a position in the first where the option year is in play from a cap management perspective.

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It's a reasonable point, but bear in mind that when the option becomes an issue, Brady is probably retired and this offense might well have come to rely on Gurley much as the Seahawks have Marshawn Lynch. Gurley is one of those guys on which you build an offense around - that's worth the extra money you spend on retaining him. This will be a different team in four years.

manxman2601 said:

It's a reasonable point, but bear in mind that when the option becomes an issue, Brady is probably retired and this offense might well have come to rely on Gurley much as the Seahawks have Marshawn Lynch. Gurley is one of those guys on which you build an offense around - that's worth the extra money you spend on retaining him. This will be a different team in four years.

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You're higher on Gurley than I am. I think he would be good value at 32 with two healthy legs.

You're higher on Ameer as well I might add. After watching highlight tape as I was asked to earlier in this thread, nobody seems to go down on contact quicker than Abdullah out of this year's acclaimed RBs. Most of his highlights are of him scooting through holes big enough for five Ameers. Have the Pats ever shown interest in a zone-read RB?

Shane Vereen and James White by comparison seemed like bulldozers, and they can't run draws at all on the NFL level. I question the obvious fit on that basis.

unoriginal said:

You're higher on Gurley than I am. I think he would be good value at 32 with two healthy legs.

You're higher on Ameer as well I might add. After watching highlight tape as I was asked to earlier in this thread, nobody seems to go down on contact quicker than Abdullah out of this year's acclaimed RBs. Most of his highlights are of him scooting through holes big enough for five Ameers. Have the Pats ever shown interest in a zone-read RB?

Shane Vereen and James White by comparison seemed like bulldozers, and they can't run draws at all on the NFL level. I question the obvious fit on that basis.

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That surprises me. Ameer seems to make about five yards after first contact almost every time.

unoriginal said:

Also a point nobody seems to have made yet, despite this being kind of a dead horse:

A RB in the first is highly unlikely because of the optional fifth year. For any pick outside the Top Ten (I think) its the average of the 3rd through 25th highest contracts at that position. For a RB this year that's between $4 and $5 million, or between $3 and $4 million more than any RB on this roster is currently making.

I don't see the Pats ever picking up the option year on a RB they've drafted. The whole point of drafting these RBs is to get them cheap.

If the Pats did draft Gurley at 32, they'd have him on the field at most 3 years. You'd have to be really high on him for that to be good value.

Far better to draft a position in the first where the option year is in play from a cap management perspective.

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Interesting points and you are right. I don't think BB would pick up a 5th year option on a RB. However to be contrarian I think it is also fair to point out that RBs year 1 can have an instant impact easier than a lot of other positions so it some ways it is almost like you are getting their year 2 jump on year 1.

Of course with Gurley we have no idea what his year 1 might look like due to injury so that argument might not even apply to him. I was in the camp of strongly considering taking him before FA but I see that now as far too much of a luxury pick at this point and his value is not so through the roof it justifies it.

I think if there was an elite back drafted there is a chance BB just MIGHT pay him 6 million for his final year. He has given out what would be close to 4M a year in cap space (adjusted) to Faulk for a few years IIRC. I think looking at that it might be possible he would pay a bit more for a guy who could do it all if Gurley indeed can. It is hard to say what BB would value an elite back at (assuming he drafts a back who becomes elite) cause we have never see him pay for one.

All we know for sure after this off season is he will not even consider paying 8m/per cause he did not even bother looking at backs he knew would command that price.

Of course this is all just theory talk as currently I am not looking to target a RB high considering the state of this team.

manxman2601 said:

That surprises me. Ameer seems to make about five yards after first contact almost every time.

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That surprises me. I was expecting something along the lines of "who gives a damn about the inside draw! did you see how this guy runs in space?" But I don't think I'm wrong about his YAC ability. I saw the two most prominent youtube highlight videos. What should I be looking at here?

The mid-round RBs I like on film are Duke Johnson and Artis-Payne. Love how they both can take body shots and keep moving. Artis-Payne tends to get loose in such situations, whirling about like a dervish with his legs splayed out, but he does keep his feet. Duke Johnson to my eye has it all, speed and inside running ability, though apparently he's not much of a pass blocker. Also like how he ran power behind a fullback a bunch. Very Ridley-like his one-cut-and-accelerate style. Plus he returns kicks.

RBs I dislike high: Tevin Coleman, Jeremy Langford, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson. Go down faster than they should, and/or run really high. Langford with his measurables and Michigan State's power offense should be amazing on tape, and he just does not break through any tackles. All contact slows him to a crawl. David Johnson runs in the NFL like he shows on tape, he'll die.

unoriginal said:

That surprises me. I was expecting something along the lines of "who gives a damn about the inside draw! did you see how this guy runs in space?" But I don't think I'm wrong about his YAC ability. I saw the two most prominent youtube highlight videos. What should I be looking at here?

The mid-round RBs I like on film are Duke Johnson and Artis-Payne. Love how they both can take body shots and keep moving. Artis-Payne tends to get loose in such situations, whirling about like a dervish with his legs splayed out, but he does keep his feet. Duke Johnson to my eye has it all, speed and inside running ability, though apparently he's not much of a pass blocker. Also like how he ran power behind a fullback a bunch. Very Ridley-like his one-cut-and-accelerate style. Plus he returns kicks.

RBs I dislike high: Tevin Coleman, Jeremy Langford, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson. Go down faster than they should, and/or run really high. Langford with his measurables and Michigan State's power offense should be amazing on tape, and he just does not break through any tackles. All contact slows him to a crawl. David Johnson runs in the NFL like he shows on tape, he'll die.

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Ha. My four favourite are Gurley, Abdullah, Coleman and David Johnson. I don't think we'll be seeing eye to eye on this subject

In fairness, I see David Johnson as more of a receiver who can run out of the backfield rather than a RB per se.

unoriginal said:

That surprises me. I was expecting something along the lines of "who gives a damn about the inside draw! did you see how this guy runs in space?" But I don't think I'm wrong about his YAC ability. I saw the two most prominent youtube highlight videos. What should I be looking at here?

The mid-round RBs I like on film are Duke Johnson and Artis-Payne. Love how they both can take body shots and keep moving. Artis-Payne tends to get loose in such situations, whirling about like a dervish with his legs splayed out, but he does keep his feet. Duke Johnson to my eye has it all, speed and inside running ability, though apparently he's not much of a pass blocker. Also like how he ran power behind a fullback a bunch. Very Ridley-like his one-cut-and-accelerate style. Plus he returns kicks.

RBs I dislike high: Tevin Coleman, Jeremy Langford, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson. Go down faster than they should, and/or run really high. Langford with his measurables and Michigan State's power offense should be amazing on tape, and he just does not break through any tackles. All contact slows him to a crawl. David Johnson runs in the NFL like he shows on tape, he'll die.

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It's funny you say that about Coleman, I've seen him run over a lot of guys and continue running. Just seems like he's running past people so often, people might think he's not a contact runner.

scott99 said:

It's funny you say that about Coleman, I've seen him run over a lot of guys and continue running. Just seems like he's running past people so often, people might think he's not a contact runner.

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For example, in this highlight video I get a running count of 20 out of 28 runs where Coleman goes untouched until he is is ether tackled or scores a TD. Every run is from a zone-read look. And in other reels I haven't seen much different. The only tackles he ever breaks are arm "tackles." We don't even see much juke in the hole, its zone-read, up cut, and all open field stuff.

As a prospect, you can just ball all this tape up and throw it in the trash, because you will be making the evaluation off of interviews and measurables. Nothing shown will have anything to do with how he performs in the NFL, apart from the constant demonstration that he does not run with forward lean or behind his shoulder pads.

That's what I'm seeing. What/where are you seeing different?

1:03 - In a Patriots-esque single-back goalline formation, Johnson finds a DT blowing into his hole and has enough power and agility to reverse out of it. He'll never make the corner like that in the NFL but that initial move is big boy football.

1:25 Very next play is a Ridley-esque dive in goalline with a fullback in front of him. Excellent forward lean mixed with agility. Should be able to run inside competently in the NFL.

1:43 Runs with two-hands on the ball on outside zone until he's in the open field. That's not just a coaching point: some guys slow down tremendously when they do so. Then bounces off a body shot and keeps going forward for seven more yards. This from an NFL "third-down" back and KR.

3:03 Runs a textbook circle on sweep.

3:50 Stop-start acceleration is crazy.

Everywhere love the way he attacks the second level of the defense. Looks like a combination of the best traits of Mike Davis (power) and Ameer Abdullah (speed). Why is this guy not getting more love? Injury history? His lowlight tape must be atrocious!

unoriginal said:

1:03 - In a Patriots-esque single-back goalline formation, Johnson finds a DT blowing into his hole and has enough power and agility to reverse out of it. He'll never make the corner like that in the NFL but that initial move is big boy football.

1:25 Very next play is a Ridley-esque dive in goalline with a fullback in front of him. Excellent forward lean mixed with agility. Should be able to run inside competently in the NFL.

1:43 Runs with two-hands on the ball on outside zone until he's in the open field. That's not just a coaching point: some guys slow down tremendously when they do so. Then bounces off a body shot and keeps going forward for seven more yards. This from an NFL "third-down" back and KR.

3:03 Runs a textbook circle on sweep.

3:50 Stop-start acceleration is crazy.

Everywhere love the way he attacks the second level of the defense. Looks like a combination of the best traits of Mike Davis (power) and Ameer Abdullah (speed). Why is this guy not getting more love? Injury history? His lowlight tape must be atrocious!

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I like Duke Johnson but I prefer Abdullah for three reasons:

1. Abdullah has the best vision I've seen in a RB I've ever scouted. Admittedly that's only 3-4 years.
2. Abdullah's ability to change direction is best in class as his combine testified to.
3. Fits the Shane Vereen role perfectly and would be an improvement on Vereen. To my mind he's the best Vereen replacement and I'd rather have the best rather than second best.

I'd be fine with Duke Johnson, I just prefer Abdullah.

I would caution against scouting through highlight tapes alone. at Draftbreakdown you get full game cut ups of all the various RBs. It gives you a better all-round perspective.

manxman2601 said:

It's a reasonable point, but bear in mind that when the option becomes an issue, Brady is probably retired and this offense might well have come to rely on Gurley much as the Seahawks have Marshawn Lynch. Gurley is one of those guys on which you build an offense around - that's worth the extra money you spend on retaining him. This will be a different team in four years.

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With what happened in dallas i wouldn't be surprised if they took gurley which would render the whole question moot.