The Irreplaceable Revis

ensoul said:

The Pats have never won a title without a shut down corner. In 01,03-04 it was Law. Last year it was Revis. It's not so much that they lost Revis is that they lost a shut down corner and he cannot be replaced.

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Ahhhhhhhhhhhh Law good hurt in the Pittsburgh game in 2004.

They won with Samuel and Earthwind Moreland and Randall Gay.

Bartmac36 said:

To be fair, he went to back-to-back AFC title games with the Jets, so that's a little misleading. Overall I agree with your point though, this is by no means a knock out punch for the Patriots hopes of repeating, it just lessens the possibility for the time being.

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I don't consider getting to the AFCCG twice and losing both in 6 years to be 'winning'. Especially in the context of this topic.

Bartmac36 said:

To be fair, he went to back-to-back AFC title games with the Jets, so that's a little misleading. Overall I agree with your point though, this is by no means a knock out punch for the Patriots hopes of repeating, it just lessens the possibility for the time being.

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What does that mean?

When did losing in the AFCCG become the pinnacle of success?

I'm okay with Revis leaving. Huge loss obviously, but we'll move on and adjust. Our defense was alot better last year for the most part yes, but when it mattered most they had meh efforts in 2 of 3 playoff games against Baltimore and Seattle (31 PA and 24 PA respectively against offenses we should've handled) , it was Brady who had to bail us out. Brady didn't win the games, he carried the team on his back. Not something you want with a secondary potentially costing you $40M +. This would be alot tougher to grasp if we were coming off a run like 03/04 where in 5 of the 6 playoff games our defense performed at and above what we wanted from them.

It will be a loss, but with the Sheard signing, potential of Easley and Mayo inacreased contributions (plus whatever other additions this offseason) we may be fielding a monstrous front 7 which could offset the losses. In 2004, we didn't have a true #1 CB (Asante wasn't there yet,) Randall Gay and Eugene Wilson were starters, Troy Brown was the nickel back. They won the battles upfront and made it work. This year we may field a front 7 that can make it work.

patsfanincleveland said:

Ahhhhhhhhhhhh Law good hurt in the Pittsburgh game in 2004.

They won with Samuel and Earthwind Moreland and Randall Gay.

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Don't forget Hank Poteat and shutdown slot DB Troy Brown!

AndyJohnson said:

I get that people wanted him back, but some of the comments on this board have been ridiculous.
Lets recognize that Revis came to a winner, he did not create a winner.
Since 2001 Bill Belichick is 170-54 in the regular season and 21-8 in the postseason.
Before joining the Patriots Revis had played in 98 regular season NFL games, winning 46, or less than half of them and is 4-2 in the playoffs, for a total non-Patriot record of 50-54.
The Patriots have won without Revis, and Revis has only won with the Patriots.
I loved having him here, but lets be clear, he was a piece of the puzzle, and one that history shows is not irreplaceable in the scope of a team.

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good post. I'm still a little concerned with our CB situation. Still a long ways to go before the start of the season so lets wait and see.

ensoul said:

Yes Welker dropping a pass could have cost the pats the game. Pats punted then the giants ended up getting the ball at the 12 yard line with 3:46 to go. Then Manning proceeded to throw passes of 38, 18, 18, and 14 yards because the pats corners were unable to make a play..

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I don't think anyone is trying to argue that we're better off having a defense that can't get off the field. Of course we want a defense that can get off the field, but Darrelle Revis is not a prerequisite for it. We signed Sheard yesterday - improving the front 7 can make up for the loss of Revis.

And the larger point is that SB46 is an example where, yeah, the team had its holes. But it was right there with a chance to win. And if we haven't learned by now, that is the goal. There is no sure fire way to guarantee a SB victory. You need to get yourself in the mix, and Belichick is the best guy in the league at achieving that.

Boston Boxer said:

good post. I'm still a little concerned with our CB situation. Still a long ways to go before the start of the season so lets wait and see.

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There are always going to be areas to be concerned with. There will always be weaknesses. The posters on this board that act as if having a weakness is caused by negligence and mental ******ation will complain right up to the final play of the SB then start up again within a month, if not sooner.
The key under a capped system is accepting that there are weaknesses, doing your best to cover them up, and trying to make your strengths outweigh them.
If BB tried to build a team without weaknesses, he would need to have a $250million cap.

Revis is a big loss but imo it was inevitable once the Jets tampered with him and made it clear they would go to whatever length necessary to sign him. Those knocking the Patriots have to ask themselves if they really believe any offer the Patriots made wasn't going to be topped. Imo it didn't make any difference what the Patriots offered because Johnson was going to go higher, so the Patriots were going to have to reconstruct the defense for life without Revis no matter how much they offered him. With the signing of Sheard they have officially,started to move on.

Revis who?

Tunescribe said:

Yeah, in early March, five weeks after winning the Super Bowl. A thousand things can (and will) happen between now and Sept. 10, some of which might more than compensate elsewhere defensively for Revis's absence. BB will have a good plan, we just don't what it is yet and might not know 'til well into the next regular season.

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The way the Pats operate use to bother me. I didn't like the fact that everything was so secretive and we didn't get many good sound bites from our HC. Even though we won I still thought it could be done a little better.

Now I really enjoy the way they operate. I came to realize that the reason the Pats have been so dominant in a league where it's not supposed to happen, is because of that kind of attention to detail. I keep thinking back to the SB prep this year, when BB had the team practice a longer halftime.

Now when a top talent leaves I get excited, knowing that they really do have a plan B,C, D and E, and they might end up better than plan A.

In Bill I Trust.

AndyJohnson said:

The key under a capped system is accepting that there are weaknesses, doing your best to cover them up, and trying to make your strengths outweigh them.

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Yep, it is a classic optimization problem. Tons of literature available in scientific journals. That is if you can find a metric to score players and their roles accordingly.

Rarely ever can you sum up a complex thing like a football organization with one word, but if I had to choose one that sums up the Patriots' entire philosophy as an operation it would be flexibility. This is true with the kind of players they like (versatile, multiple positions, smart) and their team building. They like having the ability to go out and fix a problem on the fly, so they leave themselves cap room to start a season that looks "wasted". They like to approach free agency with the ability to dip into a lot of mid level targets, so they try not to overspend on one guy. And they like to be able to weigh their draft strategy heavier on the BPA side than the need side, so they try to be solid (if not spectacular) in every area going in. It frustrates some people, but I think it really helps to understand their thought process when you keep that word in mind.

luuked said:

Yep, it is a classic optimization problem. Tons of literature available in scientific journals. That is if you can find a metric to score players and their roles accordingly.

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Which you can't which is why you have to consider who is making the decision, and their track record before passing judgment. Signing or not signing Revis is a piece of potentially 20 different roster and contract decisions. Its very easy to say we are better with Revis, but until you consider all of those related transactions you cannot know.
If the decision is being made by someone with an excellent track record, you have to trust their opinion of weighing the value you get by signing the player vs the value you get by using it elsewhere, because they have proven that their system and priorities are good. If the decision is being made by Mike Tannenbaum or Matt Millen or Dan Snyder you trust it is wrong because their track record shows they don't make good decisions.

Saying that they can mitigate the loss of Revis by improving other positions does nothing to refute the assertion that Revis is irreplaceable; rather it supports it. If he were replaceable, you would just replace him with a CB.

I think everyone understands that the Patriots were not only great the year they had Revis, but also the 13 years before he got here. But I think we had all grown tired of the soft zone defenses that couldn't force the issue at the critical moment. Revis allowed us to play more man-to-man, rush the QB more aggressively, and just be a more attacking D in general. That style of defense likely goes out the window and we'll be back to a more passive style, which I think people are bummed out about, even if we've won with that style in the past.

As far as replacing the irreplaceable, how about drafting Quinten Rollins? I'm no Mel Kiper but the guy is projected as a late 1st early 2nd round pick and looks pretty damn good to me.

letekro said:

Saying that they can mitigate the loss of Revis by improving other positions does nothing to refute the assertion that Revis is irreplaceable; rather it supports it. If he were replaceable, you would just replace him with a CB.

I think everyone understands that the Patriots were not only great the year they had Revis, but also the 13 years before he got here. But I think we had all grown tired of the soft zone defenses that couldn't force the issue at the critical moment. Revis allowed us to play more man-to-man, rush the QB more aggressively, and just be a more attacking D in general. That style of defense likely goes out the window and we'll be back to a more passive style, which I think people are bummed out about, even if we've won with that style in the past.

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Good point. Fans liked the defense better as if it was a dramatic improvement, even though the improvement was only marginal.
I don't care if the scheme is fun, just that it wins.

LightSkinSmurf said:

Yeah, that's a very optimistic way to look at it. I don't see any chance that this defense is better next year without revis, no chance. That being said I still think we can reach or possibly win the SB. We still have brady belichick and gronk. Might just need a few more breaks this time around.

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This is where a calendar can come in real handy.

Sorry to see Revis "leave us" but I am not ready to assume the Pats can't figure out how to manage without him. One positive I take from what the Jets did is that, in spite of their new HC and GM, they are still throwing money at problems, looking for the quick fix with the flashy free agent signing. Same goes for the Dolphins with Tannenbaum.

AndyJohnson said:

Which you can't which is why you have to consider who is making the decision, and their track record before passing judgment. Signing or not signing Revis is a piece of potentially 20 different roster and contract decisions. Its very easy to say we are better with Revis, but until you consider all of those related transactions you cannot know.
If the decision is being made by someone with an excellent track record, you have to trust their opinion of weighing the value you get by signing the player vs the value you get by using it elsewhere, because they have proven that their system and priorities are good. If the decision is being made by Mike Tannenbaum or Matt Millen or Dan Snyder you trust it is wrong because their track record shows they don't make good decisions.

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I agree with your entire point Andy. I was just trying to smuggle the terminology into the discussion since a lot of my work in research is around optimization problems.