Assuming we cut Revis we are about $18M under the cap. There are plenty of other ways to free up an additional $10-15M or so ($8M could be freed up with Brady and Mayo restructuring, per Miguel, and about $3-4M by cutting Amendola with a post June 1 designation). I'm going to assume about $30M to work with from those 3 moves, as a starting point. Other moves that could free up even more money would include:
- A long term deal for Nate Solder.
- A long term deal for Stephen Gostkowski.
- Trading Alfonzo Dennard would save around $1M in cap space. He's in the last year of his rookie deal.
- Cutting Michael Hoomanawanui (would save around $1.2M).
- Small restructures for Kyle Arrington, Brandon Browner and Sebastian Vollmer.
Even without those moves, with $30M in 2015 cap space to start with the Pats could potentially do some of the following:
1. Re-sign Darrelle Revis (4 years/$60M, $20M signing bonus, $20M guaranteed). 2015 cap hit $10M.
2. Re-sign Devin McCourty (5 years/$40M, $10M signing bonus, $16M guaranteed). 2015 cap hit $5M.
3. Cut Danny Amendola and sign Brian Hartline for Brandon LaFell kind of money. 2015 cap hit about $2.5M.
4. Sign Pierre Thomas to replace Shane Vereen as the 3rd down back, Thomas' 2014 deal with NO was for 2 years/$4M. Say 2 years/$3M with some incentives. 2015 cap hit about $1.5M. Thomas and Hartline could probably both be squeezed into the cap savings from cutting Danny Amendola with a post-June 1 designation.
5. Re-sign Akeem Ayers. Say 3 years/$12M or 4 years/$16M. Roughly Kyle Arrington kind of money. 2015 cap hit about $3M. I think BB will value Ayers' versatility and usefulness as a rotional player at both DE and LB.
6. Re-sign Alan Branch. Say 2 years/$3M. 2015 cap hit of about $1.5M.
7. Sign UFA DT Kenrick Ellis (Jets). Say 3 years/$8M plus incentives. 2015 cap hit around $2.5M. Ellis was a VERY good run stopper on a rotational basis, and is only 27.
8. Sign UFA TE Lance Kendricks. Say 2 years/$3M. 2015 cap hit around $1M.
Those signings come to about $27M in 2015 cap space. That leaves about $3M left over as a reserve. I would like to squeeze in low-cost re-signings for Dan Connolly and Jonathan Casillas if possible, but I'll leave them off for now. Clint Boling would be a great acquisition, but I'm assuming he's too pricey for now, depending on what other cost-cutting moves the team makes.
The draft:
1(32). I'd take Todd Gurley if he's available. I'd also strongly consider EDGE Bud Dupree, EDGE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (possibly with a trade back), EDGE Danielle Hunter (with a traceback), OL Cameron Erving, OL TJ Clemmings, OL Jake Fisher (with a tradeback).
2(64). Marcus Hardison, DT/DE, Arizona St. 6'3" 307# with 4.84 speed and a 7.29 3-cone. Can play anywhere from the 0/1 to the 9 tech. He and Easley would be the Collins/Hightower of the DL.
3(70-80, with a trade up from 96). Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6'4" 307#. I think he'll be a long term starter at LG. Re-signing Connolly at low cost would provide a transition path.
3(97 - projected comp pick). If Gurley wasn't the pick at 32 I'd hope for someone like RB David Johnson or Jay Ajayi, though both could be gone. If Gurley was the pick I'd probably take the best available lineman.
4 (from TB). Trade back for a late 4th and a 5th.
4 (after trading back). Max Valles, EDGE, Virginia. 6'5" 251#. Raw, but with a great skill set to both place in space or on the line. If the Pats took an EDGE player in the 1st or early-mid 2nd round, then I'd consider a WR like Tre McBride or an OL.
4. Traded to move up in the 3rd round for Ali Marpet.
5 (after trading back). DeAndre Smelter, RB, Georgia Tech. 6'2" 222#. Will need a redshirt year after an ACL tear, but has day 1-2 talent.
6 (from TB). Ben Heeney, LB, Kansas. 6'0" 232#. 4.59 speed with a 6.68 3-cone and great instincts. Played for Charlie Weiss. Would be a long-term Casillas upgrade.
6 (projected comp). Best available DB.
7 (from Tenn). BPA.
That gives a team that looks roughly something like this (depending on the exact draft picks):
QB: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garroppolo
RB: Todd Gurley or a day 2 rookie RB, LeGarrette Blount, Pierre Thomas, James White, Jonas Gray, Tyler Gaffney, Dion Lewis
FB/H-Back: James Develin
WR: Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Brian Hartline, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Brian Tyms, possibly a rookie like Tre McBridge; DeAndre Smelter on PUP and probably IR
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright, Lance Kendricks; maybe a rookie UDFA pick up
OL: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Dan Connolly (unless upgraded to Clint Boling), Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell, Ali Marpet, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming, Josh Kline, Jordan Devey
DT: Sealver Siliga, Kenrick Ellis, Alan Branch, Dominique Easley, Marcus Hardison, Chris Jones
DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Akeem Ayers (also LB), Max Valles (also LB), Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore
LB: Jerod Mayo Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, [Jonathan Casillas], Ben Heeney, Darius Fleming, James Morris (also Akeem Ayers and Max Valles)
S: Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Alfonzo Dennard/rookie
ST: Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Matt Slater, LS (Aiken, Ott, or someone else)
I think that would be a pretty competitive group, with competition and injury sorting out the final cutdowns.
