My Blueprint for the Defense

No dt available at the end of the first round in this draft could step in and start from day one. But some could contribute in 2015.

We are drafting a dt for 2016.

While I agree we need more pass rushers, if we can not stop the run, why would teams pass against us.

mayoclinic said:

That's what "some of it will be required to get under the cap" was meant to convey. My bad if I wasn't clear.

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No prob. I didn't want people to think we had that much money and see a slew of let's sign Suh proposals

Ochmed Jones said:

No dt available at the end of the first round in this draft could step in and start from day one. But some could contribute in 2015.

We are drafting a dt for 2016.

While I agree we need more pass rushers, if we can not stop the run, why would teams pass against us.

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Would like to sign Branch since we let VW go. He seemed productive whenever he played. The question to me is do we go for a guy like; Mbu, Hardison or McCarthy at 96,97 or 102? They might be as good as a dt you get at 32. Though, I would take Goldman if he is there.

patsfaninpa said:

Would like to sign Branch since we let VW go. He seemed productive whenever he played. The question to me is do we go for a guy like; Mbu, Hardison or McCarthy at 96,97 or 102? They might be as good as a dt you get at 32. Though, I would take Goldman if he is there.

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FWIW I've taken Mbu off my board. Tested horribly at the combine -was last or second last in almost every category amongst DTs. I'm starting to orient towards Simon, Leterrius Walton or Angelo Blackson for a run-stopping DT.

Alan Branch (picked up as a free agent in whom no other team seemed to have any interest) played 11 games for the Patriots in 2014. He was signed expressly and only to improve the interior run defense. In those 11 games, he amassed 13 tackles, none for a loss, and managed to see the field on 14.8% of the defensive snaps. Despite his only asset being a supposed ability to stop the run, the Patriots interior run defense remained porous throughout the rest of the year and he had trouble even getting on the field. He wasn't even remotely mediocre, never mind productive. Now we have lost VW to further weaken the position. Yet our plan for next year to fortify our biggest defensive deficiency is to resign Branch and further bolster the position with a rookie taken at the end of the third round? Which of us is dreaming?

mosi's man said:

Alan Branch (picked up as a free agent in whom no other team seemed to have any interest) played 11 games for the Patriots in 2014. He was signed expressly and only to improve the interior run defense. In those 11 games, he amassed 13 tackles, none for a loss, and managed to see the field on 14.8% of the defensive snaps. Despite his only asset being a supposed ability to stop the run, the Patriots interior run defense remained porous throughout the rest of the year and he had trouble even getting on the field. He wasn't even remotely mediocre, never mind productive. Now we have lost VW to further weaken the position. Yet our plan for next year to fortify our biggest defensive deficiency is to resign Branch and further bolster the position with a rookie taken at the end of the third round? Which of us is dreaming?

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He had 13 tackles in less than 15 pct of snaps. He can play more if he's put in there. Wilfork played over 70pct of the snaps and had 28 tackles. Produced at a much better clip than VW. You can't mix percentages and then totals when using stats.

I'm hoping the pats can somehow get Kendrick Ellis or Dan Williams on the cheap. I think if we're able to plug in one maybe even both(doubt it) then that should truly mitigate the loss of VW. Hopefully an early draft pick can help. I think the where the loss of VW is going to be felt is when it comes to leadership. Hopefully we can resign D-Mac and mayo( if he returns, and restructures) can lessen that problem.

Also idk if it was mayock or kiper who did the latest mock, but they didnt have bud Dupree in the first. Now they had the pats taking Carl Davis. Would you guys rather have Davis or Dupree? I personally would take Dupree. I think he would be able to replace ayers production and possibly do it better then he did.

patsfaninpa said:

He had 13 tackles in less than 15 pct of snaps. He can play more if he's put in there. Wilfork played over 70pct of the snaps and had 28 tackles. Produced at a much better clip than VW. You can't mix percentages and then totals when using stats.

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Haha. Nice point.

Still I'm real high on them bringing in Kenrick Ellis.

He's 6'5 345 of our run stuffing goodness. PFF Highlighted him in their 2014 "Secret Superstar series" saying

"Despite never playing more than 16 snaps against the run in a game all season, he definitely made the most of his opportunity. In his first game despite playing just 18 snaps, he had three highly-graded plays thanks to beating his block to make run stops. There was not a single game where he had a negative rating in run defense all season.

He ended up making 17 run stops on 114 run snaps on the season, which gave him a Run Stop Percentage of 14.9%. Over the last six years, John Henderson in 2010 was the only defensive or nose tackle with at least 100 snaps against the run and a better Run Stop Percentage."

His 2014 production was almost identical, go look at his 2014 PFF grades. He looks like the perfect cheap player to replace Wilfork.

Gabriel_p94 said:

I'm hoping the pats can somehow get Kendrick Ellis or Dan Williams on the cheap. I think if we're able to plug in one maybe even both(doubt it) then that should truly mitigate the loss of VW. Hopefully an early draft pick can help. I think the where the loss of VW is going to be felt is when it comes to leadership. Hopefully we can resign D-Mac and mayo( if he returns, and restructures) can lessen that problem.

Also idk if it was mayock or kiper who did the latest mock, but they didnt have bud Dupree in the first. Now they had the pats taking Carl Davis. Would you guys rather have Davis or Dupree? I personally would take Dupree. I think he would be able to replace ayers production and possibly do it better then he did.

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Just seen this after I replied saying something very similar.

patsfaninpa said:

He had 13 tackles in less than 15 pct of snaps. He can play more if he's put in there. Wilfork played over 70pct of the snaps and had 28 tackles. Produced at a much better clip than VW. You can't mix percentages and then totals when using stats.

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Your point is a good one but you are still dead wrong. The Pats are the ultimate meritocracy. Playing in arguably the weakest position group on the team, Branch played 15% of the snaps. If he was worthy of playing time he would have played more snaps. He wasn't. What was the problem? Was he unable to get fit? Was he unable to pick up the scheme? Was his effort inconsistent? You tell me, because he couldn't get on the field for BB on a regular basis despite the obvious need for a big-bodied interior lineman. The notion that he'd be more productive with more playing time is, in my opinion, very unlikely. I sure hope the Pats have got a better plan for 2015 than Branch and some rookie third rounder who may or may not be able to play.

The Pats secondary was fantastic last season. I hope it returns intact. But let's suppose for a minute they can't/don't resign Revis (never mind McCourty). Do you think the Pats will be able to get away with the style of defense they played last year where they often required the secondary to cover for five or six seconds at a time? The Pats were able to cover up for their lack of pressure up front with remarkable coverage skills. If their coverage ability is lessened, how do you propose they balance out the loss? Is there another cornerback out there who can replace Revis adequately? Do they make up for the loss somewhere else on the defense? What is the plan? Alan Branch and a rookie third rounder?

HawaiianPatsfan said:

I'm real high on them bringing in Kenrick Ellis.

He's 6'5 345 of our run stuffing goodness. PFF Highlighted him in their 2014 "Secret Superstar series" saying

"Despite never playing more than 16 snaps against the run in a game all season, he definitely made the most of his opportunity. In his first game despite playing just 18 snaps, he had three highly-graded plays thanks to beating his block to make run stops. There was not a single game where he had a negative rating in run defense all season.

He ended up making 17 run stops on 114 run snaps on the season, which gave him a Run Stop Percentage of 14.9%. Over the last six years, John Henderson in 2010 was the only defensive or nose tackle with at least 100 snaps against the run and a better Run Stop Percentage."

His 2014 production was almost identical, go look at his 2014 PFF grades. He looks like the perfect cheap player to replace Wilfork.

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I think Kendrick Ellis plus re-signing Alan Branch in addition to Sealver Siliga would give the Pats a nice rotation of big DTs to go heavy, at very reasonable cost. Upgrade Chris Jones with Marcus Hardison in the draft, and add a healthy Easley, and the Pats would have a very decent young DT rotation with a variety of skill sets.

Dan Williams would also be a nice fit, but I think he'd be much more pricy than Ellis.

I'd be surprised if both Branch & someone like Ellis are signed. Could more likely be one or the other,
depending on the money the FO has available to spend at the position.

Boy, I'm surprised by this. The Pats secondary looks in real danger of getting weaker next year and the line has lost it's only reliable interior player yet we are comfortable with those four question marks. To recap, Saliga has looked promising but, after bouncing around a couple practice squads, has been injured as often as not playing five games in 2013 and seven last year. Easley has great potential but obviously represents a significant injury risk as well as uncertain playing ability especially against the run. Ellis has been a part time player for three seasons after going later in the draft than he seemed to merit due to character concerns and questions regarding work ethic. Then add bright shiny new toy Marcus Hardison and the aforementioned Alan Branch round out the list. Not a single player who can be penciled in as even reliable never mind an upgrade,or provide interior pressure on the qb, but you think it's a solid approach.... The irony is that Chris Jones, who is pretty weak overall, has been the most reliable member of the group and he's the one getting jettisoned.

It obviously doesn't have to be Suh, but really?

mosi's man said:

Boy, I'm surprised by this. The Pats secondary looks in real danger of getting weaker next year and the line has lost it's only reliable interior player yet we are comfortable with those four question marks. To recap, Saliga has looked promising but, after bouncing around a couple practice squads, has been injured as often as not playing five games in 2013 and seven last year. Easley has great potential but obviously represents a significant injury risk as well as uncertain playing ability especially against the run. Ellis has been a part time player for three seasons after going later in the draft than he seemed to merit due to character concerns and questions regarding work ethic. Then add bright shiny new toy Marcus Hardison and the aforementioned Alan Branch round out the list. Not a single player who can be penciled in as even reliable never mind an upgrade,or provide interior pressure on the qb, but you think it's a solid approach.... The irony is that Chris Jones, who is pretty weak overall, has been the most reliable member of the group and he's the one getting jettisoned.

It obviously doesn't have to be Suh, but really?

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First I just want to say, I always read and listen to anyone who's post's opinion, including yours. With that being said, I think your overreacting a little. On top of that, I'm not sure you understand different formations and how the Patriots and BB tend to use them, and also tend to switch them on a yearly, or even weekly basis. To top it off, you have nothing but negative things to say, yet offer no real solution.

Tell me, what do you think we should do? Try to bring in Suh? Because let me tell you, I'm almost willing to bet my house that isn't going to happen. Its nice to fantasize, but you have to look at things from a more realistic salary cap approach.

Another last resort option is Terrence Cody. A big NT who came from the Saban pipeline.

I say last resort because personally I want nothing to do with him. Id rather have someone who hit a female, over someone who was horrible to animals. At least a female can hit back.

mosi's man said:

Boy, I'm surprised by this. The Pats secondary looks in real danger of getting weaker next year and the line has lost it's only reliable interior player yet we are comfortable with those four question marks. To recap, Saliga has looked promising but, after bouncing around a couple practice squads, has been injured as often as not playing five games in 2013 and seven last year. Easley has great potential but obviously represents a significant injury risk as well as uncertain playing ability especially against the run. Ellis has been a part time player for three seasons after going later in the draft than he seemed to merit due to character concerns and questions regarding work ethic. Then add bright shiny new toy Marcus Hardison and the aforementioned Alan Branch round out the list. Not a single player who can be penciled in as even reliable never mind an upgrade,or provide interior pressure on the qb, but you think it's a solid approach.... The irony is that Chris Jones, who is pretty weak overall, has been the most reliable member of the group and he's the one getting jettisoned.

It obviously doesn't have to be Suh, but really?

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I think you have to put together the best defense that you can within your budget. Personally, I think Suh is a pipe dream. He's looking for $16M+, and I'm pretty sure he won't take a discount for the Pats.

I'm still hoping that at least one of Revis and McCourty can be kept, and I haven't given up hope for both. I'm assuming that the money to spend on a DT will be limited. Probably my top options to replace VW would be Dan Williams or Terrance Knighton, but there are a lot of teams who could use a good run stuffing NT. If either is affordable within our budget I'd make a run. Ellis would be my next option. I think Branch can probably be kept fairly cheaply, and provides useful depth, but I'd like someone younger to build around.

If Revis and McCourty both go elsewhere then I'd certainly like a more dominant DT, but other than Suh I don't see anyone who fits that description. Jared Odrick would be a nice pickup, but he's not a consistently dominant player.

mayoclinic said:

I think Kendrick Ellis plus re-signing Alan Branch in addition to Sealver Siliga would give the Pats a nice rotation of big DTs to go heavy, at very reasonable cost. Upgrade Chris Jones with Marcus Hardison in the draft, and add a healthy Easley, and the Pats would have a very decent young DT rotation with a variety of skill sets.

Dan Williams would also be a nice fit, but I think he'd be much more pricy than Ellis.

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Yes I agree too. Ive been working on a few mocks, they also include my approach to free agency. Even before they announced they will release Wilfork yesterday, Branch, Ellis, and Siliga were the 3 run stuffers I thought we should target. In one of them, I have them taking Micheal Bennett at 64, and Hardison in the 3rd. That would give us 6DT, which is a little crazy, but Bennett, Hardison, and Easley all carry the ability to efectively play DE, especially in a 3-4 formation. Having these 6 DT would allows us to have a extremely hybrid and versatile defensive front, with great depth which would give them a high motor late in games, and late in the season. Bennett, Hardison, and Easley are also very scary off the snap and could team up for some very trick stunt plays on a regular basis. Offensive linemen would have a extremely hard time preparing for who they might face on a regular basis. Soon ill release that mock, which goes much more into depth.

mayoclinic said:

I think you have to put together the best defense that you can within your budget. Personally, I think Suh is a pipe dream. He's looking for $16M+, and I'm pretty sure he won't take a discount for the Pats.

I'm still hoping that at least one of Revis and McCourty can be kept, and I haven't given up hope for both. I'm assuming that the money to spend on a DT will be limited. Probably my top options to replace VW would be Dan Williams or Terrance Knighton, but there are a lot of teams who could use a good run stuffing NT. If either is affordable within our budget I'd make a run. Ellis would be my next option. I think Branch can probably be kept fairly cheaply, and provides useful depth, but I'd like someone younger to build around.

If Revis and McCourty both go elsewhere then I'd certainly like a more dominant DT, but other than Suh I don't see anyone who fits that description. Jared Odrick would be a nice pickup, but he's not a consistently dominant player.

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Also BJ raji is another highly versatile option who might come cheap. Although, reports are saying he's going back to GB

HawaiianPatsfan said:

First I just want to say, I always read and listen to anyone who's post's opinion, including yours. With that being said, I think your overreacting a little. On top of that, I'm not sure you understand different formations and how the Patriots and BB tend to use them, and also tend to switch them on a yearly, or even weekly basis. To top it off, you have nothing but negative things to say, yet offer no real solution.

Tell me, what do you think we should do? Try to bring in Suh? Because let me tell you, I'm almost willing to bet my house that isn't going to happen. Its nice to fantasize, but you have to look at things from a more realistic salary cap approach.

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So let me take the points you've made in order:

1. I may well be overreacting a little. Could be. A fair opinion. Or perhaps I'm just a little irritated at the snark.

2. As a longtime Patriot/football fan, I hope I understand the vagaries of formation and the changing landscape of the nfl about as well as most posters. I recognize the diminishing importance of the base defense versus the sub package and the de-emphasis of the run. I know BB changes scheme lots on a weekly (often quarter by quarter) basis and have, I think, taken his approach into account in my analysis. I have posted on this thread for several months, as I find it comprises some of the most intelligent analysis on the website and enjoy the back and forth. I don't think I've been especially negative overall, but in an effort to be positive, let me summarize:

The Pats have arguably the best secondary in football, emerging young linebackers, and a less than elite defensive line, especially in the interior. Their Superbowl win and place among the league's best defenses rests, in my opinion, on a superb secondary masking the inconsistent play of their line. Now it appears that the secondary might be negatively impacted by defections in the offseason. So, in order to remain a Superbowl calibre defense, I think they must either reinforce their secondary or the d-line (I very much like their linebackers). The question is which will be easier both in the draft and in free agency. With this in mind, I think the d-line will be the most difficult to improve (at least in the short term) via the draft. I would prefer any savings engendered by a Revis defection or a McCourty loss to go to veteran help on the d-line. I think a belief that Ellis or Branch (and especially Cody) will solidify this unit is unlikely to be realized. I would look to shore up the offensive line (where I suspect more certain value can be obtained) via the draft, along with adding young depth along the d-line and possibly d-end and maybe even the secondary, depending on who we lose. I frankly don't give a **** about wide out or running back; I think the Pats are fine with what they have at both positions and am much more comfortable with their ability to "scheme" their way to points offensively compared to doing so on defense.

Regarding the salary cap, obviously any free agent signings depend on who we lose. If we sign Revis and McCourty, great! We'll have to do the best we can along the interior line but can still count on superb secondary and linebacker play. But if we don't resign them, then I think becoming a team that is stronger in the front seven is a reasonable approach as we attempt to make up for the losses we sustain in the backfield, and I would favor that approach with Knighton or Odrick or even Suh (although I fully recognize the unlikelihood of this ever happening) rather than spare parts and rookies. And if we lose Revis and/or McCourty we should be able to afford veteran help.

HawaiianPatsfan said:

Also BJ raji is another highly versatile option who might come cheap. Although, reports are saying he's going back to GB

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Raji's play has fallen off quite a bit. I'm a bit leery.