Who is worth the pick at 32?

manxman2601 · Mar 1, 2015

Did anyone else notice this from Reiss having attended a football panel in which Nick Caserio was involved:

Later in the panel, Caserio shared an interesting analytics-based nugget on Chandler Jones in the 2012 draft process.

Caserio shared that Jones' height and weight met the team's standards, as did his arm length, while his 10-yard split was a bit lower than desired. While those things were easier to quantify, Caserio then noted how Jones' ability to play with leverage, bend and collapse the pocket was much tougher to quantify from a data perspective.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...ots-nick-caserio-on-analytics-and-akeem-ayers

Interesting that the 10 yd split is singled out. Jones had a 1.66 split according to NFL Draft Scout. Those that were better at the combine:

Anthony Chickillo - 1.59 (but also had a 1.7)
Eli Harold - 1.56
Danielle Hunter - 1.56 (no agility or explosion drills though)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa - 1.62
Preston Smith - 1.63
Bud Dupree - 1.60
Max Valles - 1.66

If we're drafting an EDGE player early, it looks like it might come down to Hunter, Odighizuwa and Preston Smith. All three are within 1/2" of each other in terms of arm length with Hunter being the longest but Hunter gives up 15-20lbs on the other two. Smith had the same 3cone as Chandler Jones but Obdighizuwa had better explosion and shuttle. We'll have to wait for Hunter's pro-day to see where his athleticism lies.

Of course, a DE/OLB might be off the board completely in the first two rounds.

Note: I've left Harold off for now as he's under 250b and that doesn't seem like a great fit.

mayoclinic · Mar 1, 2015

manxman2601 said:
Did anyone else notice this from Reiss having attended a football panel in which Nick Caserio was involved:

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...ots-nick-caserio-on-analytics-and-akeem-ayers

Interesting that the 10 yd split is singled out. Jones had a 1.66 split according to NFL Draft Scout. Those that were better at the combine:

Anthony Chickillo - 1.59 (but also had a 1.7)
Eli Harold - 1.56
Danielle Hunter - 1.56 (no agility or explosion drills though)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa - 1.62
Preston Smith - 1.63
Bud Dupree - 1.60
Max Valles - 1.66

If we're drafting an EDGE player early, it looks like it might come down to Hunter, Odighizuwa and Preston Smith. All three are within 1/2" of each other in terms of arm length with Hunter being the longest but Hunter gives up 15-20lbs on the other two. Smith had the same 3cone as Chandler Jones but Obdighizuwa had better explosion and shuttle. We'll have to wait for Hunter's pro-day to see where his athleticism lies.

Of course, a DE/OLB might be off the board completely in the first two rounds.

Note: I've left Harold off for now as he's under 250b and that doesn't seem like a great fit.

I mentioned it yesterday in the draft prospect thread when I compared Hunter and Valles to Jones. Hunter reportedly has had a 39" VJ in the past, BTW.

midwestpatsfan · Mar 1, 2015

manxman2601 said:
If you have Marcus Peters, then how about Byron Jones? And what about Todd Gurley?

My list is currently:

TJ Clemmings
Cameron Erving
Jake Fisher
Todd Gurley
Odighizuwa
Byron Jones

Dupree, Fowler, Collins and Brown aren't on the list because I'm assuming they are gone.

The following are guys I personally wouldn't take in the first, but if BB does take them in the first, I'd be OK with it:

Eddie Goldman
Jordan Phillips
DGB
Ameer Abdullah
DJ Humphries
Danielle Hunter
Arik Armstead

The following are in the "Well OK, but you should have traded down BB" group:
Shaq Thompson
Maxx Williams
AJ Cann
Devin Smith

None of these are in order within their tiers.

Absolutely in on Gurley if he is there. Just an oversite on the list. I have not watched Byron Jones or Jake Fisher yet.

midwestpatsfan · Mar 1, 2015

I think I mentioned this as well, but I see a lot of chandler jones in Danielle Hunter.

Leemo · Mar 1, 2015

Right now

Odighizuwa
Cameron Erving
Maxx Williams
Todd Gurley
Jaelen Strong
Carl Davis
Arik Armstead

patchick · Mar 1, 2015

midwestpatsfan said:
I think I mentioned this as well, but I see a lot of chandler jones in Danielle Hunter.

So do I. I like Hunter a lot, but I'm having trouble talking myself into a Chandler Jr. high in this draft.

manxman2601 · Mar 1, 2015

patchick said:
So do I. I like Hunter a lot, but I'm having trouble talking myself into a Chandler Jr. high in this draft.

It's probably a year too early, but if they figure they can only extend two of Jones, Collins and Hightower it might make sense to replace arguably the most replaceable. In the sense that Hunter is very similar to Jones ( as is Preston Smith athletically ).

MrNathanDrake · Mar 1, 2015

manxman2601 said:
Did anyone else notice this from Reiss having attended a football panel in which Nick Caserio was involved:

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...ots-nick-caserio-on-analytics-and-akeem-ayers

Interesting that the 10 yd split is singled out. Jones had a 1.66 split according to NFL Draft Scout. Those that were better at the combine:

Anthony Chickillo - 1.59 (but also had a 1.7)
Eli Harold - 1.56
Danielle Hunter - 1.56 (no agility or explosion drills though)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa - 1.62
Preston Smith - 1.63
Bud Dupree - 1.60
Max Valles - 1.66

Chickillo looked good at the Combine. I like him as a mid round pick. One of those guys that will add good depth on the DLine, but we need a future starter at DT.

luuked · Mar 2, 2015

manxman2601 said:
It's probably a year too early, but if they figure they can only extend two of Jones, Collins and Hightower it might make sense to replace arguably the most replaceable. In the sense that Hunter is very similar to Jones ( as is Preston Smith athletically ).

I also think that this might be where we are heading. And I would be totally fine with it.

To be honest a year ago I would have never chosen Hightower over Jones, but his growth into the system has been simply amazing this year and Jones seems to be stuck as "breakout year" candidate for at least 2 years in a row now. He is a very good player but as it is not worth the big contract as much as the other two fellas.

Gabriel_p94 · Mar 2, 2015

luuked said:
I also think that this might be where we are heading. And I would be totally fine with it.

To be honest a year ago I would have never chosen Hightower over Jones, but his growth into the system has been simply amazing this year and Jones seems to be stuck as "breakout year" candidate for at least 2 years in a row now. He is a very good player but as it is not worth the big contract as much as the other two fellas.

I see what your saying and I agree. But I have a feeling if we draft or sign someone who can give C.jones a break, I think that's when we're gonna see him breakout. By the time the season was midway through it seemed as if he was gassed, there was nobody reliable enough to sub in for him so he was forced back on the field. Especially after he came back from the injury it seemed as if his explosion off the line was gone. I could be dead wrong, but if Easely, a draft pick, or a FA can give him a breather on a few downs then well see jones at his full potential.

Off The Grid · Mar 2, 2015

manxman2601 said:
It's probably a year too early, but if they figure they can only extend two of Jones, Collins and Hightower it might make sense to replace arguably the most replaceable.

In the sense that Hunter is very similar to Jones ( as is Preston Smith athletically ).

luuked said:
I also think that this might be where we are heading. And I would be totally fine with it.

To be honest a year ago I would have never chosen Hightower over Jones, but his growth into the system has been simply amazing this year and Jones seems to be stuck as "breakout year" candidate for at least 2 years in a row now.

He is a very good player but as it is not worth the big contract as much as the other two fellas.

Gabriel_p94 said:
I see what your saying and I agree.

But I have a feeling if we draft or sign someone who can give C.jones a break, I think that's when we're gonna see him breakout.

By the time the season was midway through it seemed as if he was gassed, there was nobody reliable enough to sub in for him so he was forced back on the field. Especially after he came back from the injury it seemed as if his explosion off the line was gone. I could be dead wrong, but if Easely, a draft pick, or a FA can give him a breather on a few downs then well see jones at his full potential.

It's pretty rare that one sees 3 Consecutive Posts of such Excellence by 3 different Posters.

Just capturing The Moment.

manxman2601 · Mar 3, 2015

Who is worth the pick at 32?

Not Maxx Williams apparently according to Tony Pauline?

As initially posted earlier, Maxx Williams sat on his combine numbers at Minnesota's pro day, but as reported by others, he looked good in pass catching drills. And while I don't consider Williams a first-round selection, a number of teams disagree. Last night, I was informed every team between picks 26 through 32, except for the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, will consider selecting Williams late in Round 1.

http://walterfootball.com/proday.php

dryheat44 · Mar 3, 2015

I think if McCourty leaves, we'd better get comfortable with reaching for a safety in the first, or at least with our first pick somewhere between 32 and 40. The free agent options suck, and although the consensus seems to be that Collins, Prewitt, Smith, etc. aren't first round values, unless Belichick, Patricia, and Boyer can cobble together some chicken salad out of Harmon, Chung, Wilson, Ebner, and/or a CB conversion, that's where this pick is going.

Now, I think McCourty stays, and if he doesn't, Harmon was ostensibly drafted to develop behind him and insure against this day. Maybe Harmon will look like a pro in his third year with more playing time in his natural position, but I wouldn't count on it.

mayoclinic · Mar 3, 2015

dryheat44 said:
I think if McCourty leaves, we'd better get comfortable with reaching for a safety in the first, or at least with our first pick somewhere between 32 and 40. The free agent options suck, and although the consensus seems to be that Collins, Prewitt, Smith, etc. aren't first round values, unless Belichick, Patricia, and Boyer can cobble together some chicken salad out of Harmon, Chung, Wilson, Ebner, and/or a CB conversion, that's where this pick is going.

Now, I think McCourty stays, and if he doesn't, Harmon was ostensibly drafted to develop behind him and insure against this day. Maybe Harmon will look like a pro in his third year with more playing time in his natural position, but I wouldn't count on it.

I sure hope not. None is worth a 1st IMO, and none is a rangy FS.

Arizona St.'s Demaryius Randall day 2, OTOH, would make a ton of sense. Randall + Marcus Hardison would be a really nice ASU double dip.

Just as a comparison, here's Randall vs. McCourty and Logan Ryan:

Height: Randall 5' 11" / McCourty 5' 10 3/4" / Ryan 5' 11 1/8"
Weight: Randall 196 / McCourty 193 / Ryan 191#
Arm Length: Randall 30 1/4" / McCourty 32" / Ryan 31 3/8"
40: Randall 4.46 / McCourty 4.38 / Ryan 4.53
10-split: Randall 1.55 / McCourty 1.53 / Ryan 1.55
SS: Randall 4.07 / McCourty 4.07 / Ryan 4.06
3C: Randall 6.83 / McCourty 6.70 / Ryan 6.69
VJ: Randall 38" / McCourty 36" / Ryan 32 1/2"
BJ: Randall 10' 0" / McCourty 10' 6" / Ryan 9' 8"

McCourty and Ryan played for Greg Schiano at Rutgers. Randall plays for Pat Graham at Arizona St. - like Schiano, a tough disciplinarian. He also has a complex defensive scheme with a lot of pre- and post-snap adjustments.

manxman2601 · Mar 3, 2015

Don't know why no-one is talking about Anthony Harris. Most McCourty-like safety in the draft.

mayoclinic · Mar 3, 2015

manxman2601 said:
Don't know why no-one is talking about Anthony Harris. Most McCourty-like safety in the draft.

More so than Randall? You liked him too, IIRC.

In any case, whether Harroos or Randall, if McCourty walks then I think a day 2 FS in the McCourty mold at reasonable cost is more likely than reaching for someone who doesn't really have FS skills.

manxman2601 · Mar 3, 2015

mayoclinic said:
More so than Randall? You liked him too, IIRC.

I do. But Randall is more a Jimmie Ward man-cover safety but Harris is more suited to the deep cover role. Both are a little undersized though.

Clark Ryan · Mar 3, 2015

This year's draft safeties crop is nothing to write home about. We need to figure out one way or another to keep Mccourty/Revis in a Pats uniform!! It's notta question, thought, or anything else but a MUST! I dunno bout you but i wouldn't be cracking smiles ear to ear if we had to depend on Ryan, Harmon and i believe Ebner as well as our #1 guys

..

manxman2601 · Mar 3, 2015

Clark Ryan said:
This year's draft safeties crop is nothing to write home about. We need to figure out one way or another to keep Mccourty/Revis in a Pats uniform!! It's notta question, thought, or anything else but a MUST! I dunno bout you but i wouldn't be cracking smiles ear to ear if we had to depend on Ryan, Harmon and i believe Ebner as well as our #1 guys ..

BB was comfortable putting Harmon into McCourty's spot whenever McCourty went man on a TE or receiver.

luuked · Mar 3, 2015

I seriously doubt that DMac's decision to stay or walk has a big influence on this year's draft. It would be insane to assume that Belichick's strategy to deal with a potential loss of DMac is to hope for a draft choice to deliver.

There is another plan B.. it could be Nate Allen, it could be Logan Ryan.. all I know is that there are contingencies that definitely do not rely on the draft.

Who is worth the pick at 32?

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