My Blueprint for the Defense

mayoclinic · Feb 16, 2015

patsfaninpa said:
I think when we've struggled vs the run it's been one of two things.

1. Our de's did a poor job of setting the edge. That's a technique issue not an athletic one. The 2 Jets games are perfect examples of this. Horrible play from the de's.

2. The zone blocking just gets a hat on a hat. The rb looks for the hole. While the fatties are good at the point of attack. They have struggled getting off the block and don't have the movement skills to make the tackle. Really evident against Baltimore in the playoff game. Teams don't run ISO's and attack a hole any more. With some exceptions. I just feel the desire to get the next VW is like fighting the last war. Not, the next one. Just my .02. I like Hardison and Edwards. I think either one might work in the type of DT I would prefer. I also wouldn't mind a one-trick pony as our 9th DL. A speed rusher who comes in on 3rd down and just tries to turn the corner. Maybe, Michael Buchanan can be that guy. Make the qb move. Hope Easley and a new DT are quick enough to track him down.

I like the idea of quickness to the hole, even if it means giving up something at the POA. I rather agree with you that "the desire to get the next VW is like fighting the last war". I like Eddie Goldman because of his movement skills, but I'm think that even more mobile and explosive guys like Edwards and Hardison might be the way to go, and cheaper. Easley, Hardison and Edwards plus Chris Jones or Zach Moore as a DE/DT would be a nice group, and then have Siliga and Branch/Wilfork as the wide bodies.

I like the "interchangeable parts" defense. Someone like Max Valles would be my preference to add as an EDGE player with versatility and movement skills. Jones, Ninkovich, Highertower Collins, Ayers and Valles/Buchanan could be the EDGE guys along with Mayo (at a reduced cap hit) and Casillas as off-LOS LBs.

mayoclinic · Feb 23, 2015

With the 2015 Combine in the books and FA just over 2 weeks away, a few thoughts on the defensive "blueprint" for 2015:

1. The 2014 defense was largely what I hoped for a year ago. It was a SB-worthy defense that was better than its stats. There were some WTF moments, but it was the best Pats defense since 2003. I'm hoping that Mike Loyko is right when he says that it hasn't fully hit it's stride yet.

2. The secondary was the biggest story of 2014, and keeping it together should be the top priority for 2015. The FA market is poor, and teams will spend highly after the success of the Pats and Seahawks. Byron Maxwell is expected to get in the neighborhood of $10M/year, and he's not worth it. Chris Culliver is being touted as a "top" FA target. Letting either McCourty or Revis walk would be a major step backwards, but to keep Revis on his option and tag McCourty would cost almost 25% of the projected league-wide cap.

3. Akeem Ayers is a very important player, and needs to be locked up. I'd previously listed 4 years/$16M (the Arrington deal) as a target, and some people thought that was insane. With Jerod Mayo coming off a knee injury and with a high cap hit and Dont'a Hightower out for 6-7 months following shoulder surgery, Ayers' versatility only becomes more important. He can play 4+ positions at starting level (RDE, LDE, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 SAM, ILB), and is a key part of the "interchangeable defense". Parnell McPhee is reportedly looking for $8-10M/year. Ayers would be a bargain in that range.

4. The draft EDGE class is strong, but I expect most to be gone by 32. Fowler, Dupree, Gregory, Beasley and Ray will all likely be top 15 picks. Eli Harold and Owamagbe Odighizuwa could easily be off the board. Danielle Hunter is intriguing but probably needs some time to develop. I'm not a fan of Kikaha, Maudlin or Orchard for the Pats. Preston Smith, Trey Flowers and Marcus Golden are interesting day 3 / early day 3 options, followed by a bunch of developmental day 3 guys (Max Valles, Zach Hodges, Tony Washington, Obum Gwacham, Anthony Chikillo, Lyndon Trail). Good roster competition, but it's not clear that any will be an upgrade over Michael Buchanan or Zach Moore.

5. Resolving the situations of Mayo and Wilfork will obviously be key. There are no Vince Wilfork's out there, even though he's not what he once was. I probably wouldn't try to replicate finding him, but would go with a more agile DT. Marcus Hardison is one of my favorite players in this draft (thanks, Manx). Henry Anderson and Mario Edwards are very intriguing.

6. I am expecting a break-out year from Dominique Easley in 2015. He's one of the main reasons I think that next year's defense could potentially be better than this year's.

7. A pipeline at DB would be a good thing to keep going. Nick Marshall, Josh Shaw, Eric Rowe and Damian Swann all look interesting. Byron Jones will go too early - that ship sailed today for a lot of people.

I'm hoping that 2 weeks from now things will be a lot clearer, and hoping for the best.

patsfaninpa · Feb 23, 2015

Wilfork is a goner if you want to keep Revis and McCourty. Can't afford Ayers either. Unless you cut Arrington with a post June 2 designation. We're almost 8m over the cap right now. Pushing too many restructures into future years doesn't work. Sometimes you have to say good-bye to the pretty girl. Timing isn't always right.

mayoclinic · Feb 23, 2015

patsfaninpa said:
Wilfork is a goner if you want to keep Revis and McCourty. Can't afford Ayers either. Unless you cut Arrington with a post June 2 designation. We're almost 8m over the cap right now. Pushing too many restructures into future years doesn't work. Sometimes you have to say good-bye to the pretty girl. Timins isn't right.me

There will have to be some hard choices, I agree. I think for me Ayers is priority #3 on defense after Revis and McCourty. It may not be possible, but I would make a strong run at him. With a talented EDGE draft class, a lot of teams may go that way rather than pay for a FA who was on the scrap heap 4 months ago.

patsfaninpa · Feb 23, 2015

I'd be fine with Ayers over Arrington. Given The Real Mayo and Hightower's injuries. Plus, Dennard coming back. Still have 5 CB's.

mosi's man · Feb 23, 2015

I would like to see the defense improve next year, as we all would. I think this was, in fact, the best Pats defense in a long time, but I don't think they were among the best in the league last year. Perhaps they were better than their statistical ranking, but not among the very best in my opinion. After all, they gave up thirty-one points to the Ravens and came within one yard of giving up thirty-one points (and 400 yards) to the Seahawks, both mediocre offensive teams. Ultimately, they made the necessary plays to win the games but I think they need to continue to improve. In addition, the Pats defense also had the advantage of having one of the league's best offenses to help them stay off the field (excellent complimentary football) and minimize other teams drives/chances. So while they were much improved, I still think they need to shore up two areas. Those areas are along the line of scrimmage. The Pats had trouble getting to the qb. I think that was obvious to most people who watched. The also had difficulty stopping the run against teams that were committed to it (? 30th in the league on third and one). I, too, expect Easley to make a difference next year, but those kind of players are difficult to come by. I can't see how cutting Wilfork will help this area of weakness, unless he can be replaced with some form of veteran help, some one who can hold the point of attack and still occasionally push the pocket. Those of you who watch the draft with such great dedication can better tell if such players will be available where the Pats will select, but I think this is their biggest need.

I expect their linebackers to be better this year with Collins continued improvement and Mayo's return and, if they resign Revis, I think they can be better in the backfield due to greater familiarity in the system and the development of some of their younger players. I, for one, really like Butler irrespective of his unbelieveable save at the goal line. I think the kid is legit and liked his play all year. Even when he was giving up catches earlier in the year, he was competing on every down and in tight coverage most of the time. I think he is going to be a nice piece going forward and may be starting by next year. But again, they need some bolstering of their interior rotation. I have confidence that BB will find the right answer, but salary will obviously be the key.

Gabriel_p94 · Feb 23, 2015

mosi's man said:
I would like to see the defense improve next year, as we all would. I think this was, in fact, the best Pats defense in a long time, but I don't think they were among the best in the league last year. Perhaps they were better than their statistical ranking, but not among the very best in my opinion. After all, they gave up thirty-one points to the Ravens and came within one yard of giving up thirty-one points (and 400 yards) to the Seahawks, both mediocre offensive teams. Ultimately, they made the necessary plays to win the games but I think they need to continue to improve. In addition, the Pats defense also had the advantage of having one of the league's best offenses to help them stay off the field (excellent complimentary football) and minimize other teams drives/chances. So while they were much improved, I still think they need to shore up two areas. Those areas are along the line of scrimmage. The Pats had trouble getting to the qb. I think that was obvious to most people who watched. The also had difficulty stopping the run against teams that were committed to it (? 30th in the league on third and one). I, too, expect Easley to make a difference next year, but those kind of players are difficult to come by. I can't see how cutting Wilfork will help this area of weakness, unless he can be replaced with some form of veteran help, some one who can hold the point of attack and still occasionally push the pocket. Those of you who watch the draft with such great dedication can better tell if such players will be available where the Pats will select, but I think this is their biggest need.

I expect their linebackers to be better this year with Collins continued improvement and Mayo's return and, if they resign Revis, I think they can be better in the backfield due to greater familiarity in the system and the development of some of their younger players. I, for one, really like Butler irrespective of his unbelieveable save at the goal line. I think the kid is legit and liked his play all year. Even when he was giving up catches earlier in the year, he was competing on every down and in tight coverage most of the time. I think he is going to be a nice piece going forward and may be starting by next year. But again, they need some bolstering of their interior rotation. I have confidence that BB will find the right answer, but salary will obviously be the key.

I agree with you completely. But let me run something by you. Suppose somehow Landon Collins falls to us. Do you think it's worth taking him? I see alot of kam chancellor. I think he's the type of safety that would make teams think twice about going over the middle.
But that was just a thought. My main point was goin to be that I think we need a legit pass rusher. I'm hoping BB takes notice of bud Dupree. I know it's wishful thinking at this point to believe he can fall to us, but I do hope he at least falls to the point where he can be had with a slight trade up. I think he is an athletic freak and if you pair that up with Collins, the rest of the league has to take notice. Also, he isn't a liability when it comes to run support. He's the ideal prospect. But if he can't be had than I hope we play it safe and take best available guard( hopefully Erving) and I'm hopeful we double dip at the guard position.

Coach42 · Feb 24, 2015

Id like to see them add somebody in the ILB pipeline. Somebody that could be the steady cerebral play calling run stopper that would free Collins and Hightower to wreak havoc.

BobDigital · Feb 24, 2015

mayoclinic said:
With the 2015 Combine in the books and FA just over 2 weeks away, a few thoughts on the defensive "blueprint" for 2015:

1. The 2014 defense was largely what I hoped for a year ago. It was a SB-worthy defense that was better than its stats. There were some WTF moments, but it was the best Pats defense since 2003. I'm hoping that Mike Loyko is right when he says that it hasn't fully hit it's stride yet.

2. The secondary was the biggest story of 2014, and keeping it together should be the top priority for 2015. The FA market is poor, and teams will spend highly after the success of the Pats and Seahawks. Byron Maxwell is expected to get in the neighborhood of $10M/year, and he's not worth it. Chris Culliver is being touted as a "top" FA target. Letting either McCourty or Revis walk would be a major step backwards, but to keep Revis on his option and tag McCourty would cost almost 25% of the projected league-wide cap.

3. Akeem Ayers is a very important player, and needs to be locked up. I'd previously listed 4 years/$16M (the Arrington deal) as a target, and some people thought that was insane. With Jerod Mayo coming off a knee injury and with a high cap hit and Dont'a Hightower out for 6-7 months following shoulder surgery, Ayers' versatility only becomes more important. He can play 4+ positions at starting level (RDE, LDE, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 SAM, ILB), and is a key part of the "interchangeable defense". Parnell McPhee is reportedly looking for $8-10M/year. Ayers would be a bargain in that range.

4. The draft EDGE class is strong, but I expect most to be gone by 32. Fowler, Dupree, Gregory, Beasley and Ray will all likely be top 15 picks. Eli Harold and Owamagbe Odighizuwa could easily be off the board. Danielle Hunter is intriguing but probably needs some time to develop. I'm not a fan of Kikaha, Maudlin or Orchard for the Pats. Preston Smith, Trey Flowers and Marcus Golden are interesting day 3 / early day 3 options, followed by a bunch of developmental day 3 guys (Max Valles, Zach Hodges, Tony Washington, Obum Gwacham, Anthony Chikillo, Lyndon Trail). Good roster competition, but it's not clear that any will be an upgrade over Michael Buchanan or Zach Moore.

5. Resolving the situations of Mayo and Wilfork will obviously be key. There are no Vince Wilfork's out there, even though he's not what he once was. I probably wouldn't try to replicate finding him, but would go with a more agile DT. Marcus Hardison is one of my favorite players in this draft (thanks, Manx). Henry Anderson and Mario Edwards are very intriguing.

6. I am expecting a break-out year from Dominique Easley in 2015. He's one of the main reasons I think that next year's defense could potentially be better than this year's.

7. A pipeline at DB would be a good thing to keep going. Nick Marshall, Josh Shaw, Eric Rowe and Damian Swann all look interesting. Byron Jones will go too early - that ship sailed today for a lot of people.

I'm hoping that 2 weeks from now things will be a lot clearer, and hoping for the best.

Obviously Revis and McCourty have to be kept and locked up. I expect it will cost more than we would like at this point though. I feel like if they were going to make team friendly deals we would hear of more movement by now.

Sadly I am pretty sure Ayers is gone. Even if Wilfork/Mayo redo their deals they will be hard pressed to keep him. Luckily I agree this is a draft class with a lot of edge talent and they can probably get a young player in here that can make up for some of that loss. I think the Pats could double dip on edge at in this draft at OLB/DE and a pure DE. The Ayers replacement though really needs to be picked in the top 3 rounds if you want to get someone effective. Though I am sure by the way you have talked about a few of those options you would hate that.

I think you are right about Wilfork and I think the correct conclusion if this draft goes like i think it might is to not take a high DT and try to do the best you can. Maybe bring in a lost cost FA if Branch walks. No one who IMO is a likely impact starter will be in our trade up range. Take a shot at a guy later in round 4 or so and hope but mostly I am just punting till next year.

LB could be a surprise pick and would allow Hightower to play more as a DE/OLB in the McGinest role. He can of course be kicked inside to play MLB at any time. My thought is though when you have 3 players like Hightower, Mayo & Collins even when you go nickle you want to find creative ways to keep them on the field. When you do this simply kick Chandler inside and have Nink-Easley-Jones-Hightower. Frankly I think Hightower can probably hold the edge better than Jones and though this is an undersized line you would only do it for when you are in passing situations anyway. IF They do this the LB I want them to take would be McKinney btw.

captain stone · Feb 24, 2015

patsfaninpa said:
Wilfork is a goner if you want to keep Revis and McCourty. Can't afford Ayers either. Unless you cut Arrington with a post June 2 designation. We're almost 8m over the cap right now. Pushing too many restructures into future years doesn't work. Sometimes you have to say good-bye to the pretty girl. Timing isn't always right.

I agree about keeping both Revis & McCourty ahead of Wilfork (and Mayo) if neither of the latter 2
accept a re-structuring. Revis & McCourty are off-season priorities 1 & 2. If it also means sacrificing
Arrington, then so be it.

manxman2601 · Feb 25, 2015

Coach42 said:
Id like to see them add somebody in the ILB pipeline. Somebody that could be the steady cerebral play calling run stopper that would free Collins and Hightower to wreak havoc.

Check out Ben Heeney.

libra957 · Mar 1, 2015

Front 4 needs more chaos,there were time during the season (Green Bay) where the pass rush was seriously lacking,need a consistent rusher.

luuked · Mar 2, 2015

libra957 said:
Front 4 needs more chaos,there were time during the season (Green Bay) where the pass rush was seriously lacking,need a consistent rusher.

Except most of it was by design. Unless BB has a change in philosophy you won't see much in terms of outside pass rush against mobile QBs. Now if Easley is fully recovered this year and can play up to his potential then we might be in for a show in the interior.

That being said, if the draft falls that way and some of the better pass rushers are still available at 32 then great. However, the value might be in the later ones (e.g. Day2: Hunter, Day3: Valles) which would still help with depth/developing a Ninkovich heir.

manxman2601 · Mar 2, 2015

luuked said:
Except most of it was by design. Unless BB has a change in philosophy you won't see much in terms of outside pass rush against mobile QBs. Now if Easley is fully recovered this year and can play up to his potential then we might be in for a show in the interior.

That being said, if the draft falls that way and some of the better pass rushers are still available at 32 then great. However, the value might be in the later ones (e.g. Day2: Hunter, Day3: Valles) which would still help with depth/developing a Ninkovich heir.

The reason I've been so high on Hardison and Odighizuwa is that they can still generate pressure when we're only rushing limited numbers. It's why I've looked at them for pass rush rather than the OLB types like Hunter, Harold or Valles.

luuked · Mar 2, 2015

manxman2601 said:
The reason I've been so high on Hardison and Odighizuwa is that they can still generate pressure when we're only rushing limited numbers. It's why I've looked at them for pass rush rather than the OLB types like Hunter, Harold or Valles.

I would love to get Hardison with one of our clusterpicks at the end of round 3. Hope he is still there. I also like Valles as a relatively cheap depth/developmental choice.

In fact, what I really like about this years draft is the depth at our positions of need. It is almost as if you can find 1-2 players like puzzle pieces in each of the first few rounds just based on what others leave for you on the board.

If e.g. Bud Dupree drops we can get a nice pass rusher and still grab valuable OL, DT, RB players in round 2 / 3. And the same can be said for most of the other positions of need. Many nice scenarios possible..

cstjohn17 · Mar 2, 2015

mayoclinic said:
There will have to be some hard choices, I agree. I think for me Ayers is priority #3 on defense after Revis and McCourty. It may not be possible, but I would make a strong run at him. With a talented EDGE draft class, a lot of teams may go that way rather than pay for a FA who was on the scrap heap 4 months ago.

I can't swallow this, Ayers was a nice pickup but will be over priced based on his association with the Patriots (see Mark Anderson). The Patriots do need to find depth behind Ninko and Jones but my guess is it will be younger (aka. cheaper), I also expect the strong draft class at DE/OLB to weaken the cost of free agents, maybe Ayers or another JAG can be found before training camp.

mosi's man · Mar 3, 2015

If the worst case scenario occurs and Revis walks, I would:

1. Cut Wilfork. Kills me to say it, but may be necessary.
2. Restructure Mayo.
3. Resign McCourty.
4. Take Marcus Peters at #32.
5. Take Revis's money and go after Suh.

mayoclinic · Mar 3, 2015

I personally think it was a mistake to not tag McCourty. I'm not going to wail about it. I'm still hopeful that McCourty re-signs with the Pats, and I agree with Mike Loyko that the Pats have probably assessed the market carefully and have multiple contingencies in place. They have a good read on their own personnel. But it's hard to accurately predict what will happen in FA, and with the success of the Pats' and Seattles' secondaries and a terrible safety class, I could see the market being hotter than expected for McCourty. It took a long time to build this secondary.

patsfaninpa · Mar 3, 2015

mayoclinic said:
I personally think it was a mistake to not tag McCourty. I'm not going to wail about it. I'm still hopeful that McCourty re-signs with the Pats, and I agree with Mike Loyko that the Pats have probably assessed the market carefully and have multiple contingencies in place. They have a good read on their own personnel. But it's hard to accurately predict what will happen in FA, and with the success of the Pats' and Seattles' secondaries and a terrible safety class, I could see the market being hotter than expected for McCourty. It took a long time to build this secondary.

I hear ya Mayo about taking a long time to build it. But, we don't ask a lot of our safeties. If it's Revis or McCourty, It's Revis I'm keeping. I don't see a replacement for McCourty. But, I think we might be able to replace his production easier than a cb. Would kick the tires on Kenny Vaccarro.

Also, we do get a 3rd round pick if we lose McCourty. Nothing if you let Revis go.

mayoclinic · Mar 3, 2015

patsfaninpa said:
I hear ya Mayo about taking a long time to build it. But, we don't ask a lot of our safeties. If it's Revis or McCourty, It's Revis I'm keeping. I don't see a replacement for McCourty. But, I think we might be able to replace his production easier than a cb. Would kick the tires on Kenny Vaccarro.

Also, we do get a 3rd round pick if we lose McCourty. Nothing if you let Revis go.

I agree that if it's McCourty or Revis you go with Revis. The problem is, Revis' situation is so up in the air. No one knows what he wants. A "home", the money, an equitable deal. He seemed happy hear, but does he take his ring and go for one last max value long term contract, even if the Pats put a good offer on the table (roughly comparable with Sherman/Peterson)?

As I see it, there are 3 possibilities with Revis:

1. He signs a long term extension with the Pats. Then his 2015 cap hit could be lowered by $10M or so, leaving adequate room to tag McCourty while working out a long term deal. Wilfork could have been cut to make room, and Gostkowski could test the market. There are no risk-free scenarios.

2. His option is declined, and he signs elsewhere. In that case losing McCourty too would be catastrophic. I would have tagged him and not given him the chance to test FA.

3. The Pats keep Revis on his option year, with a $25M cap hit. Then there's no way you can keep McCourty. I probably don't want to pay $4.6M for a kicker under that scenario. Wilfork and Mayo may well be casualties in that scenario as well.

The secondary was the straw that stirred the drink.

Vaccaro is an interesting thought, but (1) he's still under contract with New Orleans, and not a sure thing to be cut/traded, or what the market for him would be if he is, and (2) he's not a single high free safety. Obviously there's no rule that the Pats have to try to replicate McCourty's skill set, but it would likely be a significant shift.

Again, I'm not crying. We won our 4th SB, and I'm sure that BB will field a reasonably competitive team in 2015. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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