This is my new prediction for this draft year and the more I think about it the more sure I am about it.
Lets look at the reasons why.
Reason 1: Past history indicates they will.
In Patriots History under BB the Pats have used high draft capital 3 times on a RB.
2004 - Traded for Corey Dillion (2nd), 2006 - Drafted - Lawrence Maroney (1st) , 2011 - Drafted Vereen (2nd).
BB historically does not like to pay RBs but he in the past he has shown value in them by investing draft picks. The circumstances of picking up these backs are interesting.
2004 - The Patriots had a good D and solid WR core.
2006 - Same as 2004.
2011 - Same as 2004.
Let me explain a bit about 2006 and 2011.
In 2006 going into the draft the Patriots had a solid D and still had Deion Branch and were probably counting on keeping him. Contract talks broke off in May after the draft. They probably did not expect Branch to hold out and thought this RB would offer the last peice of an otherwise balanced team.
In 2011 the Pats had just drafted Hernandez and Gronk a year ago and had WRs in place. They thought they had plenty of pass catching options. The D was not perfect but decent. It had McCourty coming off a ROTY caliber season looking like a potential #1 CB. Vet signings of Andre Cater, Haynesworth. This was an off season not unlike this year when they loaded up but just missed on a few big things and a few players did not pan out/got injured. This was a plan to have a complete team so BB thought he would draft a RB high (and one in the 3rd too).
The pattern is clear. BB worries about RB last. Once he feels he has everything else he is willing to spend premium picks to get one he believes is good.
Reason 2: This RB class is really good.
I don't believe there is a HOF back in this draft. I think there are several "Hall of very good" RBs though. This is the deepest RB draft I have seen in quite some time. This works in favor of this argument cause even though BB does draft with a mind towards positions a lot he almost never picks someone at a spot they are not worthy of. By the time 32 and 64 rolls around (assuming no trade ups or downs) there will be at least 1 if not more RBs that are good value.
Reasons 3: BB does not pay for RBs.
BB values RBs but in a very specific way it appears to me. They are worth using high assets to get but not worth keeping for high dollars. He would rather use a pick to get a RB on a low contract than spend for one. This year also makes going after one of the high priced RBs in FA particularly impractical due to other needs to fill. So if we assume BB wants to get a RB on the cheap he either A) Needs to trade for one or B) Needs to draft one. As far as i know there is no cheap top RB who can trade for right now like the Dillon situation (which i will remind you BB didn't mind using a 2nd round pick for a 2-3 year player)
Keep in mind this is not the pick i want the Pats to make automatically. Just the one i think they will.
