My Approach to this Draft

IllegalContact said:

I don't see the relevance of Curry or Cooper or Gilbert to Marpet.....nothing about any of them has anything to do with the fact that you're talking about a small school guy with a lack of competition who who is slated to play a position in the NFL he has yet to play. A much much much further stretch of the imagination if you are making a direct comparison to Erving or Clemmings.....they have proven their abilities at a much higher level and have fewer shortcomings....Erving played C last year and before that he played OT......at least he has displayed positional flexibility and he has done it at a high level......you can't claim either for Marpet.......

I think the small school and the lack of competition is exactly what will keep him from being drafted by the pats.........when it comes to OL, they don't go small school division 3.......

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I don't expect you to agree, and I'm not particularly trying to convince you. But what I am saying is this:

1. I think every prospect is a projection, whether they come from Division III or Alabama/Florida St.

2. I don't think that you draft with a "window" in mind. You draft to infuse talent for the long term.

3. I don't think that you draft with an expectation about when a prospect can start. You build your short term around veterans, and you have contingency plans in place. You let your rookies compete, whether they are 1st round picks or UDFAs, and regardless of where they competed in college, and if they prove themselves ready, they get playing time.

4. I disagree, with the bolded statement above. I don't thing the small school and the lack of competition will make that much difference to the Pats. They took a guy who didn't play football in college and developed him as a starting RG - albeit Neal was signed as a UDFA. Marpet is far more developed. His lack of competitive tape will, however, complicate his evaluation. Ultimately, you let Scar and Gooch evaluate the players and see if they think they fit. The Pats have already met with Marpet, so they have their eye on him. Whether they go further will depend on what they see out of him, and whether they take him will depend mainly on their up front evaluation of him. He may or may not pass that level of scrutiny, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does.

Again, I don't expect you to agree.

IMO level of competition is just one of the many factors that go into the player's evaluation. A low level may affect readiness, and it clearly adds to the uncertainty factor in projecting the player's NFL success. But I would never reject a draft candidate out of hand based on competition level alone. Marpet looks like a terrific prospect.

And yet...my gut tells me he's not going to be a Patriot.

Right now, my ideal rounds 1-4 would see NE come away with one from each of these groups:

DT
Xavier Cooper
Marcus Hardison

RB/HB
David Johnson

WR
Tre McBride
Kenny Bell

OL
??? I just don't have a bead on this. I don't understand what Guge is looking for. I certainly don't have a clue what a scouting staff that drafted Jon Halapaio is looking for.

mayoclinic said:

I don't expect you to agree, and I'm not particularly trying to convince you. But what I am saying is this:

1. I think every prospect is a projection, whether they come from Division III or Alabama/Florida St.

2. I don't think that you draft with a "window" in mind. You draft to infuse talent for the long term.

3. I don't think that you draft with an expectation about when a prospect can start. You build your short term around veterans, and you have contingency plans in place. You let your rookies compete, whether they are 1st round picks or UDFAs, and regardless of where they competed in college, and if they prove themselves ready, they get playing time.

4. I disagree, with the bolded statement above. I don't thing the small school and the lack of competition will make that much difference to the Pats. They took a guy who didn't play football in college and developed him as a starting RG - albeit Neal was signed as a UDFA. Marpet is far more developed. His lack of competitive tape will, however, complicate his evaluation. Ultimately, you let Scar and Gooch evaluate the players and see if they think they fit. The Pats have already met with Marpet, so they have their eye on him. Whether they go further will depend on what they see out of him, and whether they take him will depend mainly on their up front evaluation of him. He may or may not pass that level of scrutiny, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does.

Again, I don't expect you to agree.

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I don't agree......just don't see it

to me the most likely scenario is that he would not be a starter for 2 years......a typical round 6 or round 7 pick, no more

patchick said:

IMO level of competition is just one of the many factors that go into the player's evaluation. A low level may affect readiness, and it clearly adds to the uncertainty factor in projecting the player's NFL success. But I would never reject a draft candidate out of hand based on competition level alone. Marpet looks like a terrific prospect.

And yet...my gut tells me he's not going to be a Patriot.

Right now, my ideal rounds 1-4 would see NE come away with one from each of these groups:

DT
Xavier Cooper
Marcus Hardison

RB/HB
David Johnson

WR
Tre McBride
Kenny Bell

OL
??? I just don't have a bead on this. I don't understand what Guge is looking for. I certainly don't have a clue what a scouting staff that drafted Jon Halapaio is looking for.

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I approve of your choices with the possible exception of Xavier Cooper. Great combine but whenever I watch his tape, I just don't see anything that excites me. May need to revisit.

My thinking on the OL is that I'm not confident about a returning Nate Solder. Personally I'm prioritising a future LT that can play LG: Jake Fisher, TJ Clemmings, DJ Humphries, Ty Sambrailo.

Where do you stand on EDGE prospects? Any thoughts on Odighizuwa?

mayoclinic said:

I don't expect you to agree, and I'm not particularly trying to convince you. But what I am saying is this:

1. I think every prospect is a projection, whether they come from Division III or Alabama/Florida St.

2. I don't think that you draft with a "window" in mind. You draft to infuse talent for the long term.

3. I don't think that you draft with an expectation about when a prospect can start. You build your short term around veterans, and you have contingency plans in place. You let your rookies compete, whether they are 1st round picks or UDFAs, and regardless of where they competed in college, and if they prove themselves ready, they get playing time.

4. I disagree, with the bolded statement above. I don't thing the small school and the lack of competition will make that much difference to the Pats. They took a guy who didn't play football in college and developed him as a starting RG - albeit Neal was signed as a UDFA. Marpet is far more developed. His lack of competitive tape will, however, complicate his evaluation. Ultimately, you let Scar and Gooch evaluate the players and see if they think they fit. The Pats have already met with Marpet, so they have their eye on him. Whether they go further will depend on what they see out of him, and whether they take him will depend mainly on their up front evaluation of him. He may or may not pass that level of scrutiny, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does.

Again, I don't expect you to agree.

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Well if everyone here agreed on everything it would be a bit boring don't you think? : p

We overlap on our view of the draft at times but also differ a bit. I am not sure I ever did a full break down so let me explain my point of view (not that you asked me but that is the point of the thread right?)

I believe each round has its own expectations of what a player should contribute overall and that year. The first round actually has 3 tiers IMO (though the exact numbers shifts from draft to draft depending on talent.

My first round general guidelines (these are all guidelines as nothing is 100%)

1-10 - These guys should all be impact day 1 starters with star upside (Mayo for instance)
11-20 - These players should be day good 1 starters with star upside OR in certain situations might sit part of the year for certain positions (LT.CB QB) but should have high upside regardless and be key franchise players down the line. (Solder for instance)
21-32 - These players should be solid day 1 starters but might miss part of; or the whole year assuming they have top 10 caliber talent to make that trade off worth it. (Easley for instance)

After that the 2nd round is a lot more flexible and I don't mind taking shots on longer term guys though I do highly prefer a balance of long term development players as well as some short term help in the immediate year.

Last year for instance. Even though it was to build for the long term in the higher picks they did get some immediate help from Flemming and particularly Stork which was vital.

The NFL cap is such that you really need solid contributions from players on rookie contracts to contend. This to me includes 4th 3rd 2nd year players and even a few first year usually.

manxman2601 said:

I approve of your choices with the possible exception of Xavier Cooper. Great combine but whenever I watch his tape, I just don't see anything that excites me. May need to revisit.

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I keep looking at film of Cooper expecting to be wowed, but I'm not. I also don't like his 31 1/2" arms. I like Henry Anderson better.

manxman2601 said:

My thinking on the OL is that I'm not confident about a returning Nate Solder. Personally I'm prioritising a future LT that can play LG: Jake Fisher, TJ Clemmings, DJ Humphries, Ty Sambrailo.

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I agree that a future LT who can play LG is of interest. I'm not sure Humphries projects well to guard, and I'm not sure that Sambrailo is cut out for tackle. Clemmings and Fisher are definitely high on my list, though.

BobDigital said:

21-32 - These players should be solid day 1 starters but might miss part of; or the whole year assuming they have top 10 caliber talent to make that trade off worth it. (Easley for instance)

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I think that a day 1 starter at #32 is far from certain. An EDGE player would likely be a rotational guy behind Jones and Ninkovich. An OT conversion might not adapt seamlessly to LG, no matter how high he goes in the draft. And Gurley is coming off an injury and likely won't be ready, but he falls under your "top 10 caliber talent" exception. A true guard like AJ Cann is more likely to step in and start day 1, but has less upside.

I think it's more likely that we'd get what we got from Collins in 2013, or what Easley seemed to be becoming this year until his injuries caught up with him: a rotational player who is eased into the mix, and produces by later in the season.

I think it may be worth re-considering expectations for a 1st round pick. You can get solid contributors like Bryan Stork later on, but I would like to use the #32 pick on someone with more upside, even if they aren't as ready-made to step in and start right away.

I think Fisher should be the guy if you're worried about LT. He can play LG in 2015 and help us right away. Has the size/frame/athletic ability to be a LT too. I like Clemmings as a mauler at RT. Not sure about LT.

mayoclinic said:

I think that a day 1 starter at #32 is far from certain. An EDGE player would likely be a rotational guy behind Jones and Ninkovich. An OT conversion might not adapt seamlessly to LG, no matter how high he goes in the draft. And Gurley is coming off an injury and likely won't be ready, but he falls under your "top 10 caliber talent" exception. A true guard like AJ Cann is more likely to step in and start day 1, but has less upside.

I think it's more likely that we'd get what we got from Collins in 2013, or what Easley seemed to be becoming this year until his injuries caught up with him: a rotational player who is eased into the mix, and produces by later in the season.

I think it may be worth re-considering expectations for a 1st round pick. You can get solid contributors like Bryan Stork later on, but I would like to use the #32 pick on someone with more upside, even if they aren't as ready-made to step in and start right away.

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Well some fair points and if a guy picked at 32 does not start week 1 but by week 3 or 4 I wouldn't feel that be too horrible. Also it depends on the position you draft and your teams starters.

Generally teams tend to draft positions where they are weak as opposed to strong and teams are usually not as complete as ours even at 32.

If we bring back every single player (won't happen but lets say we did) then it is very unlikely the draft pick we get could start day 1. If we picked a DE like you said he would obviously not start over Nink/Jones day 1. That would not mean he is a bad pick or a bad player it just means we are a rare exception of team without many openings.

In 2011 we drafted Jones/Hightower in the first and both were day 1 starters. That is cause that year the Pats were in a position more in line with what is normal and lacked quality starting players on certain spots on their team.

If Seattle picks WR at 31 I would 100% expect him to be a day 1 starter. If they decide to go safety I highly doubt that will happen. Usually teams pick 1st rounders' in spots that need to be addressed fairly soon or immediately assuming the talent lines up with that pick for the most part,

EDIT: Also to be clear, these are general guidelines not hard rules. Sometimes the talent is just not there at 32 that year. Sometimes you feel a transition is coming at a key spot and don't see a huge need that requires immediate help (or no one is left that can help you) so you address that key spot early. Sometimes one guy is just so talented even though you have other needs you just can't pass on him either though you are already strong at that position. There is of course no 1 right way to do it.

patsfaninpa said:

I think Fisher should be the guy if you're worried about LT. He can play LG in 2015 and help us right away. Has the size/frame/athletic ability to be a LT too. I like Clemmings as a mauler at RT. Not sure about LT.

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A trade back to the early 2nd for Fisher if Gurley is off the board is high on my list of options right now. I'd be pretty satisfied with something like the following:

- Trade back into early 2nd for Fisher
- Take Hardison at 64 or with a slight trade back
- Trade up for RB David Johnson in the 3rd
- Get Marpet with our 3rd round comp or trade up from TB's 4th into the 3rd round

mayoclinic said:

A trade back to the early 2nd for Fisher if Gurley is off the board is high on my list of options right now. I'd be pretty satisfied with something like the following:

- Trade back into early 2nd for Fisher
- Take Hardison at 64 or with a slight trade back
- Trade up for RB David Johnson in the 3rd
- Get Marpet with our 3rd round comp or trade up from TB's 4th into the 3rd round

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Pretty satisfied? I'd be thrilled. Even if Fisher doesn't translate to LT, he can probably play LG or be Vollmers's long-term replacement. He could easily have a 10 year career with the Patriots. Fisher's ceiling is Solder but I feel good that his floor is similar to What Matt Light was.

IllegalContact said:

I don't see the relevance of Curry or Cooper or Gilbert to Marpet.....nothing about any of them has anything to do with the fact that you're talking about a small school guy with a lack of competition who who is slated to play a position in the NFL he has yet to play. A much much much further stretch of the imagination if you are making a direct comparison to Erving or Clemmings.....they have proven their abilities at a much higher level and have fewer shortcomings....Erving played C last year and before that he played OT......at least he has displayed positional flexibility and he has done it at a high level......you can't claim either for Marpet.......

I think the small school and the lack of competition is exactly what will keep him from being drafted by the pats.........when it comes to OL, they don't go small school division 3.......

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By all accounts the kid handled top notch competion at the senior bowl just fine. I think if he had been overwhelmed then obviously this discussion wouldn't be happening. Of course the NFL is a whole different animal but his senior bowl performance shows he's at least as ready as any other potential pick. That's certainly no guarantee of making it but it does justify Mayo's position.

manxman2601 said:

Pretty satisfied? I'd be thrilled. Even if Fisher doesn't translate to LT, he can probably play LG or be Vollmers's long-term replacement. He could easily have a 10 year career with the Patriots. Fisher's ceiling is Solder but I feel good that his floor is similar to What Matt Light was.

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I had "thrilled" originally, and toned it down.

If the Pats could trade around and basically get those 4 players with their 4 day 1-2 picks (either including the projected comp pick, or trading up from TB's 4th and keeping the comp for another use) without giving up much else, then they would be left with:

3rd comp/early 4th from TB
Late 4th
Early 6th from TB
Early 7th from Tenn
Possibly 6th/7th comp

Add an NT (Ellis McCarthy, Deon Simon or Terry Williams), an EDGE player (I still like Max Valles), a couple of receivers or hybrid TEs (DeAndre Smelter, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell or Darren Waller) or maybe a DB (Josh Shaw, Nick Marshall, or Damian Swann) and that would be a darn fine draft.

@mayoclinic

Did you see Patriot Missile's mock in the draft simulator thread?

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../draft-simulators.1116829/page-2#post-4134431

Somewhat ambitious, but also pretty damn perfect.

manxman2601 said:

@mayoclinic

Did you see Patriot Missile's mock in the draft simulator thread?

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../draft-simulators.1116829/page-2#post-4134431

Somewhat ambitious, but also pretty damn perfect.

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Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I don't usually follow the simulator thread, or do those, because the projected ranges for prospects are so far off. It's a great draft and a great job by PM, but I can't see Gurley at 64, Hunter at 98, or Hardison at 194.

mayoclinic said:

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I don't usually follow the simulator thread, or do those, because the projected ranges for prospects are so far off. It's a great draft and a great job by PM, but I can't see Gurley at 64, Hunter at 98, or Hardison at 194.

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I don't either but that one grabbed my attention.

You could sacrifice Gurley nd move Hunter into that #64 spot, slot Hardison into the 3rd rnd comp pick and stick David Johnson into the old Hunter pick (probably still ambitious). It would look like:

32 Owamagbe Odighizuwa or Cam Erving/TJ Clemmings

64 Danielle Hunter or Jake Fisher

96 Ali Marpet

Comp Marcus Hardison

98 David Johnson

128 Leterrius Walton/Deon Simon

162 Shaq Mason

194 Deandre Smelter


Still a touch ambitious but still possible. It would make for a great draft day and an off-season full of anticipation for us both. chock full of our binkies.

manxman2601 said:

I don't either but that one grabbed my attention.

You could sacrifice Gurley nd move Hunter into that #64 spot, slot Hardison into the 3rd rnd comp pick and stick David Johnson into the old Hunter pick (probably still ambitious). It would look like:

32 Owamagbe Odighizuwa or Cam Erving/TJ Clemmings

64 Danielle Hunter or Jake Fisher

96 Ali Marpet

Comp Marcus Hardison

98 David Johnson

128 Leterrius Walton/Deon Simon

162 Shaq Mason

194 Deandre Smelter


Still a touch ambitious but still possible. It would make for a great draft day and an off-season full of anticipation for us both. chock full of our binkies.

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It's still ambitious, as you note. I'll be thrilled if we can get Marpet, Hardison and Johnson with the 2 late round 3rd and the early 4th, but I think all may go higher. I would prioritize getting Marpet and Hardison, which is the whole point of this thread.

I tried to avoid "prioritizing" two many guys. I'd love to get Smelter on day 3. I'd love to get either Gurley in the 1st or Tevin Coleman/David Johnson day 2. I'd love to get an OL like Fisher. I'd love to get an EDGE player like Odighizuwa or Hunter. But they won't all happen, and I think you have to pick your spots to focus on, and "go with the flow" elsewhere. A draft like this one would be a dream, but probably not realistic.

Here's 2 possible scenarios for day 1-2:

Scenario 1:

1(32). Todd Gurley is somehow available, and you get him.

2(64). You trade back a few spots and grab Marcus Hardison.

3 (96). You grab Ali Marpet here, or trade up a bit to get him.

3 (comp). Cedric Ogbuehi slips, or maybe Donovan Smith

Gurley is a top 10 talent, and Ogbuehi and Smith both have tantalizing talent. I find it hard to believe the Pats would take 2 guys with ACL injuries in their top 4 picks, however. Smith is intriguing as a RT/OG, but less obvious as a LG.

Scenario 2:

Pretty mucha s discussed above. The Pats trade back from 32, grab Jake Fisher, then grab Hardison and Marpet as above and trade up into the mid-3rd to grab David Johnson.

Either one works for me.

If we got Gurley at 32, should we get a more powerful G at 64? I like Fisher and Marpet as prospects for our current scheme. Isn't it a bit of a waste to draft Gurley and not a mauler at Guard? I think I'd go someone like; Donovan Smith, Poutasi or Tomlinson at 64 if I got Gurley. Prob trade up for Hardison from 96 to 80

patsfaninpa said:

If we got Gurley at 32, should we get a more powerful G at 64? I like Fisher and Marpet as prospects for our current scheme. Isn't it a bit of a waste to draft Gurley and not a mauler at Guard? I think I'd go someone like; Donovan Smith, Poutasi or Tomlinson at 64 if I got Gurley. Prob trade up for Hardison from 96 to 80

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I still like Marpet. I think he'll be plenty powerful enough. A good pulling guard with movement skills can open up plenty of holes.

I think the other guys you mentioned would make great RGs, though.