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My Approach to this Draft


I think Mayo is really over-rating Marpet. Not so much as a prospect. He's a good "SMALL" school prospect. Let me repeat that. "SMALL" school prospect. For all of the Terron Armstead comparisions. Who went 76. Armstead still hasn't established himself as a solid starter yet. You can't base your draft around a kid from Hobart. He's blocking accoutants and middle-managers for god's sake. I'm not passing on Cam Erving or Jake Fisher at 32 because I might get Marpet later. If you draft Erving or Fisher at 32, you may not need another OL pick until much later. 4-6TH round. We don't know what BB thinks of Fleming. He could be our long-term answer at RG. I wouldn't complain if we took Marpet at 64. I wouldn't complain if we went DT and DE at 1-2. Move up in Round 3 for Marpet. Just think it's a little whacked to build any sort of draft strategy out of a kid from Hobart.

Your thinking is quite plausible. It's more than possible that I am a "little whacked". The Pats "reached" for Sebastian Vollmer in 2009 - I know that wasn't Division III. You'd have to base your evaluation on Senior Bowl, measurables, interviews and private workouts much more than on tape, because "blocking accountants and middle managers" isn't very helpful. I'm persisting with my whacked assessment, though.
 
Meant to say, if this seriously threw Philly into disarray, shame on them. Not one of the players drafted above them was a surprise to be gone in the top 21 picks, and Clinton-Dix to Green Bay was plenty likely. (E.g. this mock made the case for that pick: http://www.drafttek.com/2014-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1b.asp)

FWIW:
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has preached a philosophy of sticking to the draft board since the Watkins pick was so obviously based on need. The 2012 and '13 classes have seemingly been a reflection of that thinking, but the Smith selection suggests the Eagles repeated past mistakes.

They had targeted six prospects with the No. 22 pick - linebacker Anthony Barr, receiver Odell Beckham, cornerback Kyle Fuller, linebacker C.J. Mosley, receiver Brandin Cooks, and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix - by most estimates. But when they couldn't trade up and those players were off the board, they traded back to 26 and selected Smith, a former high school quarterback whom some teams had given a third-round grade.

http://articles.philly.com/2014-11-24/sports/56459811_1_marcus-smith-danny-watkins-novacare-complex
 
You can't base your draft around a kid from Hobart. He's blocking accoutants and middle-managers for god's sake.

I'm intrigued by Marpet, but I think it's very fair to say that projecting him as a rookie starter is a leap. Hobart is DIII. Even guys like Terrence Fede and Zach Moore played at a higher level of competition. AFAIK there isn't a lineman in the entire NFL -- OL or DL -- who played division III football.
 
You can find five games of Marpet tape at the link. You are looking for LT #55.

http://clients.bproductions.com/ali-marpet-left-tackle-55

Just watched a few minutes and whilst he looked utterly dominant, it's really hard to come to too many conclusions considering the quality of opposition.

I will leave you with this thought:



https://twitter.com/NEPD_Loyko/status/570381922096037888

An offensive lineman as Offensive MVP is just crazy.
Haha, that's pretty damn fun to watch. The defensive players against him kind of looks like me when I faced a guy here in Sweden who now starts at left tackle for Purdue. You see, the Swedish level isn't that high to start with, and I'm not strong, big(well I was fat, but not tall) or athletic to start with, so I was below average at the Swedish level, and had to face this guy who three years later starts in division 1 college level. Needless to say I was pancaked every play, and not right away, just when he decided it was time to stop pushing and time to lay me on the ground.

Well the problem with such utter dominance against inferior competition, like the now Purdue tackle against me, or Marpets tape, is that it is really hard to see how good they actually are. Obviously we can see that he's much better than Div 3. But how does it translate to some actual competition? Can he handle the bull rush from an end who spends all day in the weight room? Can he handle the rip from and end who really tries to master that technique?

My first question when looking at his tape, from someone who just recently learned about him, with this level of dominance, why did he still play div 3 ball?
 
Your thinking is quite plausible. It's more than possible that I am a "little whacked". The Pats "reached" for Sebastian Vollmer in 2009 - I know that wasn't Division III. You'd have to base your evaluation on Senior Bowl, measurables, interviews and private workouts much more than on tape, because "blocking accountants and middle managers" isn't very helpful. I'm persisting with my whacked assessment, though.

Jared Veldheer was also from a small school who got off to a decent start.
 
Jared Veldheer was also from a small school who got off to a decent start.

I mentioned that earlier in the thread. And Jahri Evans from Bloomsburg started all 16 games at LG as a rookie.

I'm sure that if the Pats are interested they'll have Scar do a private workout with Marpet, and probably Gooch, too. I think they can probably tell whether he has what it takes, regardless of the competition level.
 
You can't base your draft around a kid from Hobart.

He's blocking Accountants and Middle Managers, for God's sake.

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Draft Room Post of the Year!!!
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To paraphrase The Immortal Margaret Simpson: I'm not taking sides ~ I just got caught up in the Rhythm!! :D
 
Your thinking is quite plausible. It's more than possible that I am a "little whacked". The Pats "reached" for Sebastian Vollmer in 2009 - I know that wasn't Division III. You'd have to base your evaluation on Senior Bowl, measurables, interviews and private workouts much more than on tape, because "blocking accountants and middle managers" isn't very helpful. I'm persisting with my whacked assessment, though.

I don't think you're whacked. I like him as a prospect. Vollmer wasn't predicted to go that high. You're right. He had a medical question. His back. And, he was older. Houston is D-1 though. Marpet is younger and healthier. Didn't play anyone with a chance of making the NFL. I just don't think you build a draft strategy around him. He profiles perfect to me as the second of a double-dip pick. I can see DL in Round 1. More proven G like Tomlinsen at 64. Eli at 96 or 97.
 
I mentioned that earlier in the thread. And Jahri Evans from Bloomsburg started all 16 games at LG as a rookie.

I'm sure that if the Pats are interested they'll have Scar do a private workout with Marpet, and probably Gooch, too. I think they can probably tell whether he has what it takes, regardless of the competition level.

In Scar I trust, if he's good with Marpet so am I.
 
I don't think you're whacked. I like him as a prospect. Vollmer wasn't predicted to go that high. You're right. He had a medical question. His back. And, he was older. Houston is D-1 though. Marpet is younger and healthier. Didn't play anyone with a chance of making the NFL. I just don't think you build a draft strategy around him. He profiles perfect to me as the second of a double-dip pick. I can see DL in Round 1. More proven G like Tomlinsen at 64. Eli at 96 or 97.

The problem I have with that is twofold:

1. I think Marpet is better than that, and will go higher than 96-97. Pre-Combine that's where I had him. I think he is good enough to build a draft strategy around, as far as a starting LG goes.

2. I see Marpet as a starting LG. So I don't spend a top 64 pick on a LG and then draft Marpet. And I don't think you need to spend a top 64 pick on a RG (which is where I see Laken Tomlinson - nice prospect, but I wouldn't use a top 64 pick on him). I would gladly spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on another OL with tackle/guard versatility. That could include guys like TJ Clemmings and Jake Fisher, either of whom would definitely be on my short list, as mentioned above. Cam Erving depends on where you project his positional fit, but I certainly like him a lot as a player, so I'd be open. I'm not as sure about La'el Collins or Brandon Scherff.
 
He profiles perfect to me as the second of a double-dip pick.

Though not division III, this did make me think of the 2005 double-dip of Logan Mankins at 32 and Toledo's Nick Kaczur at 100 with a 3rd round comp pick.
 
The problem I have with that is twofold:

1. I think Marpet is better than that, and will go higher than 96-97. Pre-Combine that's where I had him. I think he is good enough to build a draft strategy around, as far as a starting LG goes.

2. I see Marpet as a starting LG. So I don't spend a top 64 pick on a LG and then draft Marpet. And I don't think you need to spend a top 64 pick on a RG (which is where I see Laken Tomlinson - nice prospect, but I wouldn't use a top 64 pick on him). I would gladly spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on another OL with tackle/guard versatility. That could include guys like TJ Clemmings and Jake Fisher, either of whom would definitely be on my short list, as mentioned above. Cam Erving depends on where you project his positional fit, but I certainly like him a lot as a player, so I'd be open. I'm not as sure about La'el Collins or Brandon Scherff.

How many of the LG prospects can also play center? That may make them worth the high pick if they can also fill in at RG and center.
 
Though not division III, this did make me think of the 2005 double-dip of Logan Mankins at 32 and Toledo's Nick Kaczur at 100 with a 3rd round comp pick.
That's what I was thinking. Ya know BB loves his trades back. 32 for 2 and a 3. Get our guard with trade back. Preston Smith at 64. Marpet with the 3 you just got. Hardison at 96(can use our 4th to move up). Hit the skill positions at 97 and 102.
 
That's what I was thinking. Ya know BB loves his trades back. 32 for 2 and a 3. Get our guard with trade back. Preston Smith at 64. Marpet with the 3 you just got. Hardison at 96(can use our 4th to move up). Hit the skill positions at 97 and 102.

I understand your rationale, but I rate Marpet and Hardison higher than that. Preston Smith doesn't do a lot for me, personally. And I have a hard time taking a guard at 32 when I see Marpet as a long term starter at LG. A tackle with some versatility at guard (Clemmings or Fisher) would be a different story.
 
The guard would be on the trade back pick. Smith will play in the NFL
 
A nice video on Ali Marpet's combine preparation. It gives some sense of him as a person.



Here's Dane Brugler's profile on Marpet, FWIW:
STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES

STRENGTHS:
Compact build with a solid base to anchor and dig his cleats in the ground. Mechanically sound upper and lower halves, keeping his movements in clean unison. Nice job staying square with knee bend and coordination to latch-and-drive, keeping his feet moving to get push. Keeps his elbows in with active hands to control defenders. Understands leverage and blocking angles. Enough flexibility in his joints and plays with hip snap at the point of attack. Sets up quickly with adequate quickness in his kickslide with balanced lateral movements and body control to get away with lean. Quick thinker with reflex adjustors to counter rush moves, showing the reaction time to cut off inside moves. Nice job on combo blocks to engage at the point, but uses his eyes to seek out his next victim. Comfortable in his own skin with a high football IQ and smarts off the field. 110-percenter with NFL toughness and play speed. Two-time team captain with several accolades at the D-III level.

Durable. Finished his career with 37 straight starts at left tackle. Strong work ethic with self-motivating habits and an unassuming personality.

WEAKNESSES: Shorter-than-ideal arm length for the edges and lacks an engulfing wingspan. Has some bad weight in his midsection and has room to get stronger and add bulk. Narrow base and lacks a wide kickslide to routinely reach the corner vs. NFL speed rushers. Overaggressive and will get his shoulders extended past his feet. Got away with some bad habits at the Division-III level that won't work in the NFL, allowing rushers to initiate contact and lowering his eye level when finishing off blocks. Doesn't have much experience inside at center or guard, his likely positions at the next level. All of his college experience is against a lower level of competition.

--Dane Brugler

PLAYER OVERVIEW

A three-year All-Conference and two-time Division-III All-American performer, Marpet dominated competition at that level and didn't waste anyone's time at the Senior Bowl, performing well against the nation's top senior prospects (first Hobart player invited to Mobile and will likely be the first Hobart football selected in the NFL Draft). He doesn't stand out physically, but he is always under control with core strength and coordination. The hungry man from Hobart, Marpet is a tenacious technician, who eats glass for breakfast and gets his money's worth on each snap. A competitive overachiever with zero passiveness to his game, Marpet has the next level intangibles and skill-set to start in the NFL for a long time, ideally suited inside at either guard or center as a bargain brand version of Cowboys' Zach Martin.

Lightly recruited as a prep player, Alexander "Ali" Marpet was 230 pounds as a senior in high school and received moderate interest from a few FCS programs, but ended up at Division-III Hobart. After seeing part-time duty as a true freshman, Marpet won the starting left tackle job as a sophomore and started every game, earning First Team All-Liberty honors. He started all 11 games in 2013 as a junior left tackle and was awarded First Team All-Conference and All-American honors. Marpet again started all 13 games as a senior in 2014 and didn't allow a sack, becoming the first lineman in Liberty League history to earn a share of the Offensive Player of the Year award, also earning First Team All-Conference and All-American honors.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/2169061/ali-marpet
 
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I'm not as convinced with Marpet (I'm coming around on Hardison) .... at least not as an earlier pick.....too many questions to assume he will be effective, and will need time to adjust to playing inside.....

my bottom line is that as long as Brady is QB with a window that can be anything from 1-5 years, I'm not really interested in 'upside' as a primary variable in the first couple of round when it comes to offensive players. the margins are too small for developmental opportunity.....if he's around in round 4 or 5, sure....why not

what I have ready is that hardison has added some size and carries it well.....moves him up the charts (for everyone I'm sure)
 
I'm not as convinced with Marpet (I'm coming around on Hardison) .... at least not as an earlier pick.....too many questions to assume he will be effective, and will need time to adjust to playing inside.....

my bottom line is that as long as Brady is QB with a window that can be anything from 1-5 years, I'm not really interested in 'upside' as a primary variable in the first couple of round when it comes to offensive players. the margins are too small for developmental opportunity.....if he's around in round 4 or 5, sure....why not

I'm afraid I don't agree with that philosophy. The draft is always a bit of a crapshoot, and you can't draft with a "window" in mind, or to get immediate starters. We've seen "NFL ready" "sure thing" prospects fail over and over again. Aaron Curry was considered can't miss. Justin Gilbert was considered the most NFL ready CB in last year's draft. Jonathan Cooper was considered about as solid as they come, and he hasn't done anything in 2 years due to injury and lack of development.

2 of the potential 1st round linemen who we've been discussing as possible LGs have never played the position: Cam Erving and TJ Clemmings. There's absolutely no guarantee that they can step in and start in 2015.

If you think a prospect fits your system and has the necessary drive, athleticism and skill set to develop, then you have to think seriously about him. How soon he can start is a secondary considation.
 
If you think a prospect fits your system and has the necessary drive, athleticism and skill set to develop, then you have to think seriously about him. How soon he can start is a secondary considation.
And combine athleticism, smarts and work ethic and they can often start earlier than expected. Solder was supposed to be raw and needing development. Next thing we know Vollmer is out and Solder starts, and does well, at RT all season.

Plus, as Mayo says, upside counts. We're "stuck" drafting 32 and we're always low, you can't get a potential stud always playing it safe. Had we done so we'd never had drafted "where will he play" Jamie Collins or "I have a bad back" Rob Gronkowski. Drafting low constantly means you have to be willing to take a chance on greatness.
 
I'm afraid I don't agree with that philosophy. The draft is always a bit of a crapshoot, and you can't draft with a "window" in mind, or to get immediate starters. We've seen "NFL ready" "sure thing" prospects fail over and over again. Aaron Curry was considered can't miss. Justin Gilbert was considered the most NFL ready CB in last year's draft. Jonathan Cooper was considered about as solid as they come, and he hasn't done anything in 2 years due to injury and lack of development.

2 of the potential 1st round linemen who we've been discussing as possible LGs have never played the position: Cam Erving and TJ Clemmings. There's absolutely no guarantee that they can step in and start in 2015.

If you think a prospect fits your system and has the necessary drive, athleticism and skill set to develop, then you have to think seriously about him. How soon he can start is a secondary considation.


I don't see the relevance of Curry or Cooper or Gilbert to Marpet.....nothing about any of them has anything to do with the fact that you're talking about a small school guy with a lack of competition who who is slated to play a position in the NFL he has yet to play. A much much much further stretch of the imagination if you are making a direct comparison to Erving or Clemmings.....they have proven their abilities at a much higher level and have fewer shortcomings....Erving played C last year and before that he played OT......at least he has displayed positional flexibility and he has done it at a high level......you can't claim either for Marpet.......

I think the small school and the lack of competition is exactly what will keep him from being drafted by the pats.........when it comes to OL, they don't go small school division 3.......
 


TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
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