Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard

http://patscap.com/dennard.html

Paying a CB5 1.46 million that is in the last year of his deal just isn't smart. Butler seems like a better outside CB and slot CB backup.

Revis
Browner
Arrington
Butler
Ryan
Marshall (rookie)

Giving Dennard's roster spot to a mid-late round rookie with cheap team control for four years would be a better idea then keeping Dennard IMO. It would save us 1 million and give the inactive CB spot to a developmental rookie.

patsinthesnow said:

http://patscap.com/dennard.html

Paying a CB5 1.46 million that is in the last year of his deal just isn't smart. Butler seems like a better outside CB and slot CB backup.

Revis
Browner
Arrington
Butler
Ryan
Marshall (rookie)

Giving Dennard's roster spot to a mid-late round rookie with cheap team control for four years would be a better idea then keeping Dennard IMO. It would save us 1 million and give the inactive CB spot to a developmental rookie.

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You presume that there is a developmental rookie who will make the roster. I suspect that any rookie will be even more buried in the roster than Dennard was. We will draft a CB late, as we did last year. Maybe he'll make the roster, or not. Even with Dennard gone, such a rookie might not make the 53 man roster.

Presuming that everyone is here and healthy in camp, there will be decisions to make. Revis, Browner, Arrington, McCourty, Harmon, and Ryan will get almost all the reps. Ryan started before Browner arrived, and is now primary a special teamer and dime back. Presumably, Butler will be part of the mix.

Dennard will get a chance to beat out players for their spots. If everyone stays healthy, he still could make the 53 if Ryan is considered a safety.

I see no reason to make decisions before camp. Perhaps, everyone won't have agreed to satisfactory contracts; maybe someone will be injured; maybe Butler won't looks as good in his second year. Maybe Dennard can beat out Arrington. There are lots and lots of possibilities.

However, we can be in much, much worse shape than having six qualified corners, even if a backup is being paid an extra million. Even then, we could trade a player before the trade deadline.

It's the inconsistent play of dennard, arrington and Ryan that leads me to believe bb drafts a corner very early in this upcoming draft.

I don't think that Dennard is making enough to warrant cutting him just for the cap savings. The Pats might take a CB late if they resign Revis & McCourty and if he beats out Dennard then they might try and make a trade similar to the Blount-Demps trade last year. Cutting him to save $1 million doesnt seem to make sense but people seem to want to do it with Arrington so that 0.7% of the cap is apparently the most important part of the cap

mgteich said:

I see no reason to make decisions before camp. Perhaps, everyone won't have agreed to satisfactory contracts; maybe someone will be injured; maybe Butler won't looks as good in his second year. Maybe Dennard can beat out Arrington. There are lots and lots of possibilities.

However, we can be in much, much worse shape than having six qualified corners, even if a backup is being paid an extra million. Even then, we could trade a player before the trade deadline.

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I certainly agree with you, particularly after our conversations regarding this same subject matter during last year's offseason. As you mention, depth is extremely important--especially when it comes to the secondary.

After all, Malcolm Butler saved the season for us, and NINE defensive backs saw more reps than him in 2014.

meatface said:

I don't think that Dennard is making enough to warrant cutting him just for the cap savings. The Pats might take a CB late if they resign Revis & McCourty and if he beats out Dennard then they might try and make a trade similar to the Blount-Demps trade last year. Cutting him to save $1 million doesnt seem to make sense but people seem to want to do it with Arrington so that 0.7% of the cap is apparently the most important part of the cap

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I think the general thinking for Belichick is that if/when he can take advantage of any lesser cost, he will most likely attempt to do it--no matter what little the "profit" or cap savings may be. This is the guy that will cut the fan favorite punter to save 800-900 thousand by switching to the rookie instead. He's proven to be quite shrewd and that's okay with us!

That said, I think Dennard can attempt to save his job through one basic way--and that's having a good offseason and proving to be over the injuries and back to his "old" self. I'd lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt since depth is so important in the secondary, but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he ends up somewhere else.

Bed Check Billy said:

I wonder about Duron Harmon. I am still annoyed about that crazy Kearse catch that Harmon jumped over.

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The lesson is certainly learned, let's not forget that was once in a lifetime play, Butler broke the pass but Kearse luckily found a way to hang on to the ball, if Harmon goes over to hit the ball hitting Kearse at the same time I'm pretty sure flags would have been thrown.

Dennard had surgery and jail time last off season, I'll consider that as something that might have affected the way he prepared himself for training camp/season.

People are only looking at this past season, of course it was not good but if you take away his 3rd year from the equation and look only to his first 2 years (where a lot of rookies struggle) he was a starter full time with playoff experience and making plays (5 picks). In 2013 he's had small knee surgery during the season and came back next week so he is tough and BB values that.

Unless there is a factor we don't know like being someone difficult to coach or has poor attitudes I think he won't be out before the 53 man roster cut so he has all the opportunities to come back. Lets see what happens.

BradyFTW! said:

Nobody's claiming that he's a bust. We're recognizing the relative value of players in contract years vs. draft picks. There are CBs who can fetch a fourth rounder in the last year of their rookie deal. Aqib Talib is one. I think it goes without saying that Alfonzo Dennard is not in the same league as Talib.

No, even generously spekaing, he's more like Alan Branch, LeGarrette Blount, and Akeem Ayers. All of those players came with a similar story to Dennard: potentially starter caliber, but they sure as hell weren't starting.

You keep stating it as a matter of fact that Dennard is a starting-caliber corner, which I find strange because last time I checked he was sixth on the Patriots' depth chart. Are you claiming that we have six starter-caliber corners?

The most optimistic comparison that I can make for Dennard using recent comps is that he's similar to Ayers. A player who has flashed some starter-caliber potential in past years at a high-value position, but in the past season could not get on the field for reasons unknown that may or may not have been related to past health concerns.

Now, with that comparison in mind, go back and review what Ayers fetched in trade, and remember that the Titans were operating from a position of (slight) leverage since the Pats had so few alternatives at that point in the season). Or go look at Blount, who had flashed not just starter ability, but fringe Pro Bowl ability, albeit at a lower-value position.

It's not that I'm undervaluing Dennard or think he sucks. He was a good pick who, even if he's cut before next season, delivered a lot of value for where he was drafted. But that said, I understand what a player of his profile is worth on the trade market. Not based on feelings or loyalty or a willingness to ignore how buried he was on the depth chart, but based on actual comparables. Front offices aren't in the business of trading mid-round picks for one year of a guy who, best case scenario, got knocked off the roster for a whole year for no reason at all. In that best case scenario, he comes back 100% healthy and motivated to be... a low-to-mid-grade starter for you, in which case he commands a pretty hefty price tag in free agency one year from now. Even if you can guarantee that best case scenario, most teams would still rather just draft someone like Ronald Darby, Doran Grant, Lorenzo Doss, or even Nick Marshall in the 4th/5th, and have him locked in for four years at a cheap price.

You're dramatically overvaluing the fact that Dennard used to be a starter, and dramatically undervaluing the fact that he couldn't crack the top 6 CBs this year, and that teams actually care about getting four years of cost control out of their draft picks. Trading a pick for just one year of production is a major concession in its own right; nobody gives up a mid-rounder for a player surrounded by question marks unless the upside is much greater than what Dennard possess. Every comp of a player in a similar situation clearly indicates that he's worth a whole lot less in trade than you're claiming he is.

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You lost me when you claim that Dennard isn't a starting caliber CB. So Dennard isn't starting caliber CB when he started for the Patriots for two years? I would classify a starting caliber CB as a player who has shown that he can be a starter over a long stretch of time. Just because he fell down the depth chart this year does not change that. He was hindered by injuries this year and missed the entire offseason and part of the regular season was put in a role he isn't suited for this season (nickel). He lost his starting job to an even better #2 CB (at least for what the Pats wanted to do).

This time last year, the Pats might have been able to get a 3rd for him, maybe a low second. He was an up and coming CB with some good press man skills and was a solid #2 CB. This year, he lost his job due to injuries, a change in philosophy, and a new starter who fit what they wanted better.

Dennard's upside is one of the top #2 CB in the league (not the top, but maybe top 5). May never make it, but he was on his way before his shoulder surgery hindered his progression. If you don't see that, yes you are undervaluing him.

The guy is young and has a lot skills. He has black marks, but he is certainly worth a 5th, may be a 4th. Last year people would be upset if they traded him away for less than a 2nd rounder. I think the disappointing season knocks him down a few rounds. But the guy has a lot of upside that is worth risking a lower midround pick.

varjao said:

Dennard had surgery and jail time last off season, I'll consider that as something that might have affected the way he prepared himself for training camp/season.

People are only looking at this past season, of course it was not good but if you take away his 3rd year from the equation and look only to his first 2 years (where a lot of rookies struggle) he was a starter full time with playoff experience and making plays (5 picks). In 2013 he's had small knee surgery during the season and came back next week so he is tough and BB values that.

Unless there is a factor we don't know like being someone difficult to coach or has poor attitudes I think he won't be out before the 53 man roster cut so he has all the opportunities to come back. Lets see what happens.

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I think that is the problem. People are only evaluating him on this past season without taking some of the factors in regard. I know it is what have you done for me lately league, but this time last year a lot of people on this board would have put Dennard higher on the importance to this defense than guys like Collins and Hightower. Now he is a bum that the Pats would be lucky to get a 7th rounder for to get someone to take the "enormous" cap hit off the books.

Rob0729 said:

You lost me when you claim that Dennard isn't a starting caliber CB.

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Do you even read these posts before you disagree with them? I never said that. I said that in 2013 he was a low-to-mid tier starter, and that he may still be that but it's a pretty big question mark at this point considering that he couldn't crack the top 5 in the CB rotation.

So Dennard isn't starting caliber CB when he started for the Patriots for two years? I would classify a starting caliber CB as a player who has shown that he can be a starter over a long stretch of time. Just because he fell down the depth chart this year does not change that.

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It certainly calls it into question. If he was a starter-caliber player this year, then he would have cracked the active roster this year. For whatever reason, he clearly wasn't starter-caliber in a year where he couldn't break into a 5-man CB rotation, and the fact that this is even being debated is kinda absurd.

He was hindered by injuries this year and missed the entire offseason and part of the regular season was put in a role he isn't suited for this season (nickel). He lost his starting job to an even better #2 CB (at least for what the Pats wanted to do).

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He didn't just lose his starting job, or the starting nickel job that Arrington had. I expected going into the season that he would be CB4, and that's not a bad thing. It was just a reflection of how much better the Pats had become at CB. But he also lost the #4 and #5 jobs, because, despite being a press corner, and despite the Pats needing depth with exactly that type of player, they still elected to go with a poor scheme fit in Ryan and an UDFA in Butler over him.

This time last year, the Pats might have been able to get a 3rd for him, maybe a low second. He was an up and coming CB with some good press man skills and was a solid #2 CB. This year, he lost his job due to injuries, a change in philosophy, and a new starter who fit what they wanted better.

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This time last year, there is no way in hell that Dennard would have fetched a 2nd. And he did not lose his job because of a change in philosophy. There was no change in philosophy. You yourself just said that press man coverage is what he does best. Well what do you think they signed Revis and Browner to do? Depth is needed behind those guys, because Ryan and Arrington most certainly are not press man corners. The fact that he couldn't stick on the roster as the first man off the bench on the outside is pretty telling, and 'a change in philosophy' is a justification that you're inventing after the fact that's simply not true.

Dennard's upside is one of the top #2 CB in the league (not the top, but maybe top 5). May never make it, but he was on his way before his shoulder surgery hindered his progression. If you don't see that, yes you are undervaluing him.

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So where would that put him in terms of overall CBs? Somewhere between 30 and 40? I disagree, but not by a huge amount. I'd put him somewhere in the 40-60 range, somewhere between 'league-average starter' and 'moderately below league-average starter'. Which again, isn't a bad thing. Starting a guy like that isn't a bad thing, and having him as depth is a downright advantage.

But even if we're talking a guy whose ceiling is that best case scenario he's around the 40th best corner in the league, nobody in the NFL is trading a mid-round pick for a one year of a guy who might be the 35th best corner is everything breaks right and there isn't something more to him being benched for a year. You're just experiencing a fundamental failure in understanding the value of draft picks.

The guy is young and has a lot skills. He has black marks, but he is certainly worth a 5th, may be a 4th. Last year people would be upset if they traded him away for less than a 2nd rounder. I think the disappointing season knocks him down a few rounds. But the guy has a lot of upside that is worth risking a lower midround pick.

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Take everything that you just said and apply it to Akeem Ayers, yet again. Akeem Ayers is the same age as Dennard, established himself in his second year as a pass rusher of potential starter caliber. Hurt his knee, had surgery. New coach came in, established a new defensive scheme (unlike what you're claiming with Dennard, Ayers actually was the victim of a scheme change), and Ayers was promptly buried on the bench. Week in and week out, he was a gameday inactive, But since he was a young, talented player who had demonstrated starter-level ability and enough talent to be a 2nd round pick, surely someone would give up a mid-round pick for him, right?

No, as it turns out. He ended up being a pick swap that's going to net the Titans a move-up of maybe 10-15 spots at the top of the 6th round. That move-up ends up being worth less than a 7th round pick. So, if you're going to reply to this at all, I want you to articulate exactly why Dennard would be worth exponentially more right now than Ayers was worth last year or LeGarrette Blount was worth 2 years ago.

Yet again, this straw man that you've constructed just isn't going to work. Nobody's claiming that Dennard sucks, or that he doesn't have potential, or that we don't remember what he was able to do in 2012-13. The one and only claim that I'm making is that he isn't worth more than LeGarrette Blount and Akeem Ayers. And if you're going to respond, I'm going to demand that you start by articulating exactly why you think he's worth way, way more (multiple times more) than they were.

BradyFTW! said:

Do you even read these posts before you disagree with them? I never said that. I said that in 2013 he was a low-to-mid tier starter, and that he may still be that but it's a pretty big question mark at this point considering that he couldn't crack the top 5 in the CB rotation.



It certainly calls it into question. If he was a starter-caliber player this year, then he would have cracked the active roster this year. For whatever reason, he clearly wasn't starter-caliber in a year where he couldn't break into a 5-man CB rotation, and the fact that this is even being debated is kinda absurd.



He didn't just lose his starting job, or the starting nickel job that Arrington had. He also lost the #4 and #5 jobs, because, despite being a press corner, and despite the Pats needing depth with exactly that type of player, they still elected to go with a poor scheme fit in Ryan and an UDFA in Butler over him.



This time last year, there is no way in hell that Dennard would have fetched a 2nd. And he did not lose his job because of a change in philosophy. There was no change in philosophy. You yourself just said that press man coverage is what he does best. Well what do you think they signed Revis and Browner to do? Depth is needed behind those guys, because Ryan and Arrington most certainly are not press man corners. The fact that he couldn't stick on the roster as the first man off the bench on the outside is pretty telling, and 'a change in philosophy' is a justification that you're inventing after the fact that's simply not true.



So where would that put him in terms of overall CBs? Somewhere between 30 and 40? I disagree, I think he's a fair bit below that, but even if we're talking a guy whose ceiling is that best case scenario he's around the 40th best corner in the league, nobody in the NFL is trading a mid-round pick for a one year of a guy who might be the 35th best corner is everything breaks right and there isn't something more to him being benched for a year. You're just experiencing a fundamental failure in understanding the value of draft picks.



Take everything that you just said and apply it to Akeem Ayers, yet again. Akeem Ayers is the same age as Dennard, established himself in his second year as a pass rusher of potential starter caliber. Hurt his knee, had surgery. New coach came in, established a new defensive scheme (unlike what you're claiming with Dennard, Ayers actually was the victim of a scheme change), and Ayers was promptly buried on the bench. Week in and week out, he was a gameday inactive, But since he was a young, talented player who had demonstrated starter-level ability and enough talent to be a 2nd round pick, surely someone would give up a mid-round pick for him, right?

No, as it turns out. He ended up being a pick swap that's going to net the Titans a move-up of maybe 10-15 spots at the top of the 6th round. That move-up ends up being worth less than a 7th round pick. So, if you're going to reply to this at all, I want you to articulate exactly why Dennard would be worth exponentially more right now than Ayers was worth last year or LeGarrette Blount was worth 2 years ago.

Yet again, this straw man that you've constructed just isn't going to work. Nobody's claiming that Dennard sucks, or that he doesn't have potential, or that we don't remember what he was able to do in 2012-13. The one and only claim that I'm making is that he isn't worth more than LeGarrette Blount and Akeem Ayers. And if you're going to respond, I'm going to demand that you start by articulating exactly why you think he's worth way, way more (multiple times more) than they were.

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I'm sorry I didn't read your entire War and Peace length dissertation. I didn't realize there is a contest for the most words in a post in this thread. If I have a few hours, I will try to trudge through this response. I just don't have the time during the day to dig through long winded posts like this.

Obviously, we both have different views of the guy. I think the consensus view on this guy this time last year was he was an average to above average #2 CB with the potential to be top 5-10.

And throwing in that he couldn't beat Arrington out for the #1 nickel guy is a red herring. Some guys are outside CBs and some guys are inside. Browner couldn't beat out Arrington for the nickel role and Arrington couldn't beat Browner out for the #2 CB outside position. Different roles and skill sets.

BTW, I am not undervaluing that he was a "healthy" scratch during the year. We have no idea whether he ever rebounded from his surgery. It is tough to play press man coverage if he hadn't retained all of his strength and mobility of his injured shoulder. People are quick to write a guy off when they fall from production the year after their injury. This league is full of guys who have a really bad year post surgery and then rebound big time in year two. Without knowing all the facts about his recovery, you are seriously overvaluing his drop on the roster.

Rob0729 said:

I'm sorry I didn't read your entire War and Peace length dissertation. I didn't realize there is a contest for the most words in a post in this thread. If I have a few hours, I will try to trudge through this response. I just don't have the time during the day to dig through long winded posts like this.

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The fact that you feel comfortable emphatically disagreeing with a post that you didn't even read is pretty telling. No need to whine, you should be better than that. If you don't have time to spend 3 minutes reading a post, then you don't have time to disagree with it.

Obviously, we both have different views of the guy. I think the consensus view on this guy this time last year was he was an above average #2 CB with the potential to be top 5-10. This year gave questions about him, but he still has an upside of what he had a year ago. It just brings more doubt that the upside will be met.

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And there are a number of CBs who will be available in the middle rounds of the draft with significant more potential than he has. That's kinda beside the point, especially when you keep dodging my point that length of contract matters. Even if Dennard fully rebounds to become every bit the player that you think he is, the team that trades for him would be trading away a fourth rounder for the privilege of probably watching him walk in FA when someone else overpays for him.

And throwing in that he couldn't beat Arrington out for the #1 nickel guy is a red herring. Some guys are outside CBs and some guys are inside. Browner couldn't beat out Arrington for the nickel role and Arrington couldn't beat Browner out for the #2 CB outside position. Different roles and skill sets. Just because Dennard is not a good slot CB doesn't mean he sucks at taking on the #2 WR who usually runs a lot more out side routes than a slot WR would.

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Which I again explicitly acknowledged in the post that you're quoting. Again, do you even read this stuff? Dennard was beaten out as a backup to two outside press corners (the very thing that he's supposed to be good at) by a poor scheme fit in Ryan and an UDFA in Butler.


And again, you're still dodging the one specific argument that you have to make if you want to be even a little bit convincing. The one and only claim that I'm making is that Dennard isn't worth more orders of magnitude more than LeGarrette Blount and Akeem Ayers. And if you're going to respond, I'm going to demand that you start by articulating exactly why you think he's worth way, way more (multiple times more) than they were.

BradyFTW! said:

If he was a starter-caliber player this year, then he would have cracked the active roster this year. For whatever reason, he clearly wasn't starter-caliber in a year where he couldn't break into a 5-man CB rotation, and the fact that this is even being debated is kinda absurd.

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I am not sure that not "starting" dosent make you starting caliber. When healthy AD is a legit CB. You cant fault him for being behind Browner and Revis. Every other CB in the league would be behind revis.

Plus as mentioned Dennard was injured. BTW I dont think AD is worth much in a trade. I think he is worth a lot more to us at current salary.

Bruins29 said:

I am not sure that not "starting" dosent make you starting caliber. When healthy AD is a legit CB. You cant fault him for being behind Browner and Revis. Every other CB in the league would be behind revis.

Plus as mentioned Dennard was injured. BTW I dont think AD is worth much in a trade. I think he is worth a lot more to us at current salary.

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That's true if you're CB3 on the outside behind Revis and Browner. It's not at all when Ryan and Butler have knocked you off the depth chart entirely. It's pretty telling that they would rather miscast Ryan in a role that he had no business playing than put Dennard on the field in a role that played to his strengths.

I say that without getting into how good he was in the past, because for whatever reason--it's still unclear--his past level of performance just didn't apply this year. If it did, he would have been on the active roster.

BradyFTW! said:

That's true if you're CB3 on the outside behind Revis and Browner. It's not at all when Ryan and Butler have knocked you off the depth chart entirely.

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Were Ryan and Butler healthy?

Bruins29 said:

Were Ryan and Butler healthy?

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Yes, and Dennard almost certainly wasn't. If that's the point that you're arguing for, then you're arguing for something that nobody's arguing against. I'm pretty sure everyone is in favor of bringing Dennard to TC and seeing if he can win a roster spot. That's exactly what TC is for. You bring him in, and either he wins a job or he gets cut.

The debate that Rob and I are currently having is re: the idea (and absurd one, IMO) that months before TC, with his 2014 non-season being the latest thing on his resume, someone would plausibly even consider trading a fourth rounder for the guy. I could see someone offering up a 7th, figuring that that's a worthy price to make sure you get him and get him ASAP rather than waiting to see if he gets cut and if he chooses to sign with you. Anything more than that, and I think all 31 other GMs would rather just take a flyer on this relatively deep CB draft class.

BradyFTW! said:

Yes, and Dennard almost certainly wasn't. If that's the point that you're arguing for, then you're arguing for something that nobody's arguing against. I'm pretty sure everyone is in favor of bringing Dennard to TC and seeing if he can win a roster spot.

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I think the point is regardless of AD's health which kept him off the roster, some posters think when healthy he is good enough to start in the NFL. Some dont.

Since he has done it in the past. I am going to go with he can. However, maybe its not this team given the grouping now assembled - BB's physical impact and MB's rise perhaps.

Rob0729 said:

I think that is the problem. People are only evaluating him on this past season without taking some of the factors in regard. I know it is what have you done for me lately league, but this time last year a lot of people on this board would have put Dennard higher on the importance to this defense than guys like Collins and Hightower. Now he is a bum that the Pats would be lucky to get a 7th rounder for to get someone to take the "enormous" cap hit off the books.

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I missed all the posters here calling him a bum and stating we'd be lucky to get a 7th.

Strawperson much?