Patsfans Draft Forum Heresy: Belichick values the 40 in WRS far more than 3 cone or short shuttle

rabidfireweasel · Feb 22, 2015

Bear with me before you flame away:

I think BB's love of the short shuttle and three cone, especially with wr's, is way overplayed. I often read he values these over 40 times, which I believe is nonsense. If you look at wr's he drafts (not ufa's or FA's- he will overlook speed on these folks) he wants 40 time combined with 3 cone, with an emphasis on speed.
Jeremy Gallon ran a 4.49. Dobson ran a 4.4. Boyce ran a 4.34. Jeremy Ebert ran a 4.38 at his pro day. Price ran a 4.4. Edelman ran between a 4.45 and and 4.52 depending on who was holding the clock(lone exception I have found) . Chad Jackson was one of the fastest guys at the combine. Bethel Johnson was blazing. Deion Branch ran a 4.4. You will be hard pressed to find a guy Belichick drafts at wr that does not have straight line speed of sub 4.5. That is, seemingly a must. Only after that does he then look to quick cut ability.I have posted this before, but people lose their mind about statistics that don't truly correlate to NFL success during the combine.

In fact, there is remarkably little correlation between short shuttle speed and nfl success for wide wr's. If there was, you would see the players with top times have good nfl success. That is not the case. Note: Sometimes you will see an already top tier prospect heading into the combine who also puts a great shuttle or 3 cone (Cooks and Beckham Jr- this year Cooper) That is a good sign when that happens.
Top Short Shuttle Times from NFL.com
2014 top 5: Brandin Cooks 3.81, Damien Copeland 3.90, Odell Beckham Jr. 3.94, Isaiah Burse 3.94, Bruce Ellington 3.95
2013 top 5: TJ Moe 3.96, Tavon Austin 4.01, Quinton Patton 4.01, Marcus Patton 4.01, Da'Rick Rogers 4.06
2012 top 5: Junior Hemmingway 3.98, Eric Page3.98, Jarius Wright 4.03, Kashif Moore 4.05 and Marvin McNutt 4.07

2011 top 5 Austin Pettis 3.88, Jeffery Maehl 3.94, Dane Sanzenbacher 3.97, Terrence Toliver 4.03 and Cecil Shorts 4.07.

2010 Top 5 Blair White, Scott Long, Emmanuel Sannders, Stephen Roberts and Andre Roberts.

2009 Kevin Ogletree, Kenny McKinley, Tiquan Underwood, Brian Hartline, Johnny Knox.

2008 Arman Shields 3.96, Andre Caldwell,Harry Douglas, Ryan Grice- Mullen, Jaymar Johnson 4.18

2007 Mike Mason, Anthony Gonzallez, Paul Thompson, Chris Davis
The list of 3 cone superstars who weren't elite prospects is equally ugly.

Top 15 3 cone times 2012-2014 from NFL.com
Damian Copeland 6.53
TJ Moe 6.53
Junior Hemingway 6.59
Tevin Reese 6.63
Jeff Janis 6.59
Marquess Wilson 6.65
Josh Boyce 6.68 (Ran a 4.34 40)
Ryan Grant 6.68
Kevin Norwood 6.68
Odell Beckham 6.69
Danny Coale 6.69
Bruce Ellington 6.69
Walt Powell 6.70
Da'Rick Rogers 6.71
Ryan Spadola 6.72

Top 15 3 cone times from 2009-2011- from NFL.com
Jeffrey Maehl 6.42
Scott Long 6.45
Dane Sazenbacher 6.46
Terrence Toliver 6.48
Cecil Shorts 6.50 - ran a 4.35 and a 4.45 on his pro day
Emmanuel Sanders 6.60 (ran a 4.41 40)
Marshall Williams 6.61
Tiquan Underwood 6.62
Vincent brown 6.64
Brian Hartline 6.65
Aldrich Robinson 6.65
Greg Salas 6.65
Mike Thomas 6.65
Julio Jones 6.66 (fear the number of the beast!)
Kevin Ogletree 6.67

rabidfireweasel · Feb 22, 2015

Hopefully we can break this down and find its flaws/ exceptions as the great forum does so well.
This, the draft forum, is my favorite forum on the inner webs. Great thinking, great discussion, little attitude or chest thumping. Blast away!

patchick · Feb 22, 2015

Just to clarify, are you making this argument just about WRs, or all positions? (If it's just WRs I might change the title to reflect that.)

manxman2601 · Feb 23, 2015

When I look at potential WRs, I tend to look at the forty first. Sub 4.50 is important first and foremost and closer to the 4.3s the better. I then look at the 3-cone. If I have two or more receivers at similar times, I tend towards sub 7.00 3cones. And finally, If I'm looking for a small slot guy, then I look at the ss. But there are other things I look for like ability to catch properly, sharp and well run routes and basic WR fundamentals like sideline awareness and blocking ability.

I nearly hit on Josh Boyce and Mark Harrison (I opted to mock one of my favourite receivers at the time in Marquess Wilson even though I knew Boyce and Harrison were better picks). I missed completely on Dobson - didn't rate him at all and I thought Marvin Jones, Robert Woods and Markus Wheaton were the most likely to be Patriots I've scouted. Obviously I was wrong on all counts. However, I'm still convinced those three, particularly Jones and Wheaton were of the right type.

This year, Devin Smith, Tre McBride and Kenny Bell are the three I lay my hat on but that is partly influenced by preference. All are sub 4.5 and McBride has excellent all-round athleticism. But I think Smith and Bell are the most likely of the three, in Smith's case because of school and speed and in Bell's case because of speed, all-round athleticism and a fundamental skill set and intelligence.

That's my long winded way of saying that you might be close to the truth although I don't think it's a case of "faster the better", I just think running over 4.5 is a bit of a red flag.

Username · Feb 23, 2015

Didn't BB once say 40 times don't really matter to him because a player never runs 40 yards in a straight line during a game? Or did I imagine that?

mayoclinic · Feb 23, 2015

manxman2601 said:
I just think running over 4.5 is a bit of a red flag.

Recent over 4.5 guys Patriots Julian Edelman (4.52 Pro Day), Brandon LaFell (4.58 Combine, 4.54 Pro Day), Wes Welker (4.65 Pro Day), Danny Amendola (4.68 Combine, 4.58 Pro Day) and Tim Wright (4.65 Pro Day).

Recent under 4.5 guys Patriots include Josh Boyce (4.34 Combine), Aaron Dobson (4.37 Pro Day) and Kenbrell Tompkins (4.46 Pro Day).

So far the 40 time doesn't seem to have much of an impact on the ability to succeed with the Pats.

Wilfork#75 · Feb 23, 2015

Personally the combine testing numbers mean nothing to me in regards to evaluating a prospect, especially the 40 time. We have this discussion every year and my position hasn't changed. I think it is such a flawed test because it in no way reflects football speed. I think the 3 cone and short shuttle are better measures of athleticism but that doesn't make someone good at football.

I would much prefer seeing these guys run in pads from a starters go to reflect their football athleticism. Some guys are able to handle running in pads much better than others and some have better reactions off the line than others. In football a WR will never dictate the timing of the snap and will always have to react to it, so wouldn't a receivers reaction time be an important factor too?

In the end I think all the on field stuff at the combine is purely marketing for the NFL and keeping football at the forefront in the offseason. The medicals and interviews I do think are important, but all the other stuff can be better tested during individual workouts anyway.

For me the most important things for a WR are his ability to catch the ball, body control, understanding of route running and then athleticism. I don't care how big and strong and fast a guy is, if he can't get to where he is suppose to be and can't catch the ball he is completely useless.

Ivan · Feb 23, 2015

The combine is really just a way of establishing a baseline for these athletes, game tape is the overriding factor. Is a RB as fast as he looks or just the,beneficiary of great blocking or weak competition. I think they pay attention to the measurables but they don't draft them on them, which is the mistake some draftniks make, although that's understandable given the mistakes some font offices make, Mike Mamula and Datius Heyward Bey say hi.

Ultimately it comes down to how they play football and the combine doesn't reflect that, it just allows teams to verify how big or small, fast or slow, weak or strong, and explosive or not they are in a controlled setting. And the interviews give them a chance to get some questions answered that otherwise wouldn't be. Its a useful exercise but not the end all be all some make it out to be. What it doesn't answer may be the most important question, how much heart and desire they have, and are they "winners." But hell, that's what the Hunger Games are for.

Ivan · Feb 23, 2015

rabidfireweasel said:
Hopefully we can break this down and find its flaws/ exceptions as the great forum does so well.

This, the draft forum, is my favorite forum on the inner webs. Great thinking, great discussion, little attitude or chest thumping. Blast away!

Agree completely, overall this is as good a draft forum as you will find on the interweb.

manxman2601 · Feb 23, 2015

mayoclinic said:
Recent over 4.5 guys Patriots Julian Edelman (4.52 Pro Day), Brandon LaFell (4.58 Combine, 4.54 Pro Day), Wes Welker (4.65 Pro Day), Danny Amendola (4.68 Combine, 4.58 Pro Day) and Tim Wright (4.65 Pro Day).

Recent under 4.5 guys Patriots include Josh Boyce (4.34 Combine), Aaron Dobson (4.37 Pro Day) and Kenbrell Tompkins (4.46 Pro Day).

So far the 40 time doesn't seem to have much of an impact on the ability to succeed with the Pats.

But that's irrelevant to the discussion. Only one of those was drafted and he missed by 2/100

rabidfireweasel · Feb 23, 2015

manxman2601 said:
When I look at potential WRs, I tend to look at the forty first. Sub 4.50 is important first and foremost and closer to the 4.3s the better. I then look at the 3-cone. If I have two or more receivers at similar times, I tend towards sub 7.00 3cones. And finally, If I'm looking for a small slot guy, then I look at the ss. But there are other things I look for like ability to catch properly, sharp and well run routes and basic WR fundamentals like sideline awareness and blocking ability.

I nearly hit on Josh Boyce and Mark Harrison (I opted to mock one of my favourite receivers at the time in Marquess Wilson even though I knew Boyce and Harrison were better picks). I missed completely on Dobson - didn't rate him at all and I thought Marvin Jones, Robert Woods and Markus Wheaton were the most likely to be Patriots I've scouted. Obviously I was wrong on all counts. However, I'm still convinced those three, particularly Jones and Wheaton were of the right type.

This year, Devin Smith, Tre McBride and Kenny Bell are the three I lay my hat on but that is partly influenced by preference. All are sub 4.5 and McBride has excellent all-round athleticism. But I think Smith and Bell are the most likely of the three, in Smith's case because of school and speed and in Bell's case because of speed, all-round athleticism and a fundamental skill set and intelligence.

That's my long winded way of saying that you might be close to the truth although I don't think it's a case of "faster the better", I just think running over 4.5 is a bit of a red flag.

I agree with this. My main point is that if you are a WR and don't run a sub 4.5, in the past, you have almost zero chance of being drafted by Patriots, regardless of Short shuttle or 3 cone. That seems, to me anyway, to be very consistent- to the point of being a rule.

Less consistent, but still historically significant, is that in the past BB has been fairly interested in really fast guys, especially in rounds 1-4. Bethel Johnson was the fastest WR 40 his year, Chad Jackson had the WR in his draft class, Taylor Price was tied for second, and Josh Boyce was fourth- I have seen hist times listed as 4.34 and 4.38. Drafting players with elite speed at WR seems to be a pattern, not a rule. However, as Mayo has said, given that:

1) speed has little to do with one's ability to succeed in the NE offensE
and
2) Belichick often learns from his mistakes

Perhaps this changes going forward. It would mark a shift in philosophy.

mayoclinic · Feb 23, 2015

manxman2601 said:
But that's irrelevant to the discussion. Only one of those was drafted and he missed by 2/100

I don't think it's irrelevant at all. BB ants receivers that will succeed in his system, and many of the most successful guys have had below-average speed.

According to a 5 year NFL report studying the period from 2008-2012, the average Combine WR 40 time was 4.55.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40-yard_dash

Not all of those players were drafted. So simply based on the law of averages, you would expect at least half of the players drafted to have a sub-4.5 40.

I don't think BB selects for 40 time at all. But I don't think he prefers slow receivers, either.

manxman2601 · Feb 23, 2015

mayoclinic said:
I don't think it's irrelevant at all. BB ants receivers that will succeed in his system, and many of the most successful guys have had below-average speed.

According to a 5 year NFL report studying the period from 2008-2012, the average Combine WR 40 time was 4.55.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40-yard_dash

Not all of those players were drafted. So simply based on the law of averages, you would expect at least half of the players drafted to have a sub-4.5 40.

I don't think BB selects for 40 time at all. But I don't think he prefers slow receivers, either.

Whether BB scours the combine results for the fastest guys or not, BB selects athletes and/or size/weight guys. But he rarely drafts slow guys which is what I said.

rabidfireweasel · Feb 23, 2015

mayoclinic said:
I don't think it's irrelevant at all. BB ants receivers that will succeed in his system, and many of the most successful guys have had below-average speed.

According to a 5 year NFL report studying the period from 2008-2012, the average Combine WR 40 time was 4.55.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40-yard_dash

Not all of those players were drafted. So simply based on the law of averages, you would expect at least half of the players drafted to have a sub-4.5 40.

I don't think BB selects for 40 time at all. But I don't think he prefers slow receivers, either.

It is not at all irrelevant in the idea of improving the the receiving core. As I mentioned in the post above, perhaps given the recent successes/failures, Belichick will change what he is looking for.

However, of your list, on Edelman was drafted by the Patriot (and he had a 4.45-4.52 range on his pro day - as team scouts measure individually). Drafted folks, from Gallon to Ebert all the at to Jackson and Johnson, were fast- often really fast. That was the original topic (althogh tangents are often far more interesting and provide different/greater insight than original topics).

I believe Belichick has significantly different and stricter standards about the height/weight/speed requirements about folks he invests a draft pick (with no NFL film on them) than guys he picks up as street free agents, trades or acquires in FA. He seems to have far fewer numbers based checkpoints/ cut offs if he is either not risking draft capital or he has seem them perform in the NFL.

jays52 · Feb 23, 2015

I think that out of any position in the sport, the 40 correlates best to receivers. While certain routes, specifically those in the slot like the pivot, require elite agility, a lot of playing receiver involves cutting on obtuse angles. Separation is often determined by how well that player accelerates through these cuts. That's specific acceleration at speed which is exactly what the 40 was designed to test. Of course, there's a lot more to effectively playing receiver, especially in an option route system, but the 40 is generally the best speed measure for the position. It's certainly far from absolute but when viewed strictly in a vacuum it is the best measure available for that position.

The 3 cone and shuttle correlate far better to the direction changes that come with playing defense. If you want to see a strong correlation between a combine number and Patriots picks look no further than corner and 3-cone. 3-cone is a great measure of a players ability to get their hips over and more importantly a measure of that player's footwork. After the jam, corner is played well through hip fluidity and footwork. Watch Revis play man for example. Yes, he is a very good athlete, but he moves with some of the most fluid, beautiful footwork I have ever seen. That's what makes him so good and enables all of the veteran knowledge to come through.

patchick · Feb 23, 2015

Here's a different spin on the OP's data set: 40 times are most relevant for split ends and flankers, whereas shuttle and cone times are most relevant for slot receivers. And as a rule, Belichick does not draft slot receivers.

unoriginal · Feb 23, 2015

My guess is that if you were to look closer at these receivers, its not 40 time but the 10-yard-split time that indicates whether or not the Pats will have interest.

Just looking up Edelman and Amendola, who had meh and god-awful 40 times of 4.52 and 4.68 respectively, they both had the same very good 1.52 10 yard split. Dobson had a 1.51 split. LaFell had 1.55. And so on.

So long as its not high 1.5's or in the 1.6's, the Pats seem interested.

So for example Amari Cooper's 4.42 40 / 1.62 10 or Kevin White's 4.35 / 1.66 aren't going to have the Pats salivating.

DaBruinz · Feb 23, 2015

The problem with the OP's premise is that he's attempting to lump all receivers together and you can't do that. It's very rare that you find a Julian Edelman type player who can line up at the X, Y, or Z receiver positions and perform equally as well. Typically, you find receivers who are either Good outside receivers or good Slot Receivers.

The best route running receivers are the ones who can cut on a dime and use that ability to open up separation between them and the opposing player. A good 3-cone goes a long way to showing this.. It's not the be all end all, but it definitely helps you get identified.

Being able to run the 40 in under 4.5 is good and yes, past history has shown the Patriots have looked for that in their draft picks. Being able to run a sub 4.4 hopefully means you have the speed to catch the ball and get away from the opposing player vs. just outright beating them deep due to a good double move.

Unoriginal's premise about the 10 yard split seems to be more sound thinking and I'd like to see what the list of previous draft picks had for that.

mayoclinic · Feb 23, 2015

unoriginal said:
My guess is that if you were to look closer at these receivers, its not 40 time but the 10-yard-split time that indicates whether or not the Pats will have interest.

Just looking up Edelman and Amendola, who had meh and god-awful 40 times of 4.52 and 4.68 respectively, they both had the same very good 1.52 10 yard split. Dobson had a 1.51 split. LaFell had 1.55. And so on.

So long as its not high 1.5's or in the 1.6's, the Pats seem interested.

So for example Amari Cooper's 4.42 40 / 1.62 10 or Kevin White's 4.35 / 1.66 aren't going to have the Pats salivating.

Very instructive post. Thanks you. FWIW, Josh Boyce had a 1.54 split, and Kenbrell Thompkins 1.56.

My biggest question would be that there is often a big disparity in the 2 reported 10 split times, with no "official" times. Kevin White had a 1.55 as well as his 1.66. Even JJ Nelson had a 1.63 to go with his very fast 1.50 split. Kevin Smith had a 1.56 and a 1.63. But this is a very interesting idea. Again, thanks.

rochrist · Feb 23, 2015

unoriginal said:
My guess is that if you were to look closer at these receivers, its not 40 time but the 10-yard-split time that indicates whether or not the Pats will have interest.

Just looking up Edelman and Amendola, who had meh and god-awful 40 times of 4.52 and 4.68 respectively, they both had the same very good 1.52 10 yard split. Dobson had a 1.51 split. LaFell had 1.55. And so on.

So long as its not high 1.5's or in the 1.6's, the Pats seem interested.

So for example Amari Cooper's 4.42 40 / 1.62 10 or Kevin White's 4.35 / 1.66 aren't going to have the Pats salivating.

I was going to ask if there was a way to compare the 10 yard times vs. the 40s. Because for separation on the cuts, a 10 yard burst seems what's most relevant. And certainly, that's where JE kicks ass. His stop/start time is just ridiculous.

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