This is my new prediction for this draft year and the more I think about it the more sure I am about it.
Lets look at the reasons why.
Reason 1: Past history indicates they will.
In Patriots History under BB the Pats have used high draft capital 3 times on a RB.
2004 - Traded for Corey Dillion (2nd), 2006 - Drafted - Lawrence Maroney (1st) , 2011 - Drafted Vereen (2nd).
BB historically does not like to pay RBs but he in the past he has shown value in them by investing draft picks. The circumstances of picking up these backs are interesting.
2004 - The Patriots had a good D and solid WR core.
2006 - Same as 2004.
2011 - Same as 2004.
Let me explain a bit about 2006 and 2011.
In 2006 going into the draft the Patriots had a solid D and still had Deion Branch and were probably counting on keeping him. Contract talks broke off in May after the draft. They probably did not expect Branch to hold out and thought this RB would offer the last peice of an otherwise balanced team.
In 2011 the Pats had just drafted Hernandez and Gronk a year ago and had WRs in place. They thought they had plenty of pass catching options. The D was not perfect but decent. It had McCourty coming off a ROTY caliber season looking like a potential #1 CB. Vet signings of Andre Cater, Haynesworth. This was an off season not unlike this year when they loaded up but just missed on a few big things and a few players did not pan out/got injured. This was a plan to have a complete team so BB thought he would draft a RB high (and one in the 3rd too).
The pattern is clear. BB worries about RB last. Once he feels he has everything else he is willing to spend premium picks to get one he believes is good.
Reason 2: This RB class is really good.
I don't believe there is a HOF back in this draft. I think there are several "Hall of very good" RBs though. This is the deepest RB draft I have seen in quite some time. This works in favor of this argument cause even though BB does draft with a mind towards positions a lot he almost never picks someone at a spot they are not worthy of. By the time 32 and 64 rolls around (assuming no trade ups or downs) there will be at least 1 if not more RBs that are good value.
Reasons 3: BB does not pay for RBs.
BB values RBs but in a very specific way it appears to me. They are worth using high assets to get but not worth keeping for high dollars. He would rather use a pick to get a RB on a low contract than spend for one. This year also makes going after one of the high priced RBs in FA particularly impractical due to other needs to fill. So if we assume BB wants to get a RB on the cheap he either A) Needs to trade for one or B) Needs to draft one. As far as i know there is no cheap top RB who can trade for right now like the Dillon situation (which i will remind you BB didn't mind using a 2nd round pick for a 2-3 year player)
Keep in mind this is not the pick i want the Pats to make automatically. Just the one i think they will.
First, for the errors.
Corey Dillon was brought to the Patriots after the 2003 season. The D after the 2003 season was in a state of FLUX because Ted Washington had left for the Raiders in March of 2004 (over a month before the trade for Dillon) . The Patriots had signed Keith Traylor, but they didn't know if he was going to be able to fill in. And let's not forget that both Harrison and Wilson had broken their arms in the SB and were recovering in the off-season.
The Pats added Dillion because he was available and Antowain Smith wasn't cutting it anymore.
The Defense after the 2005 season was in shambles. I don't get where you think it was good. The Pats had lost Bruschi to the stroke. Ted Johnson had to retire. Junior Seau didn't sign until mid August, 4 days after saying he was retiring. The Pats had one "known" corner in Asante Samuel who'd just completed his 3rd year.. They had a half-decent rookie in Hobbs. Rodney had spent most of the season in IR. As had Randall Gay..
Contrary to your claims, the WR corps going into the draft was a mess, regardless of what happened with Deion Branch. David Givens had already left for a big payday with the Titans. Troy Brown retired. David Patten was gone.. They had no one other than Reche Caldwell who they had signed in March.
So, the idea that this was somehow the same going into the 2004 draft is a fantasy.
After the 2010 season, the Patriots WR corps was anything but strong. They had Wes Welker and an unknown in Edelman. Hardly what I'd call a solid WR Corps.. As for the defense, most people admit that the defense was helped out tremendously in the 2010 season by the offense.. But they were 1 and done to the lowly Jets.. And if the defense had been so great, why did Belichick dump TBC and Ty Warren to go get Andre Carter and Mark Anderson.
What you are over-looking is the obvious. During the 2003 season, the Pats used 4 RBs in Antowain Smith, Cloud, Faulk, and Patrick Pass. They also used 2 FBs in Larry Centers and Fred McCrary.. Belichick wanted a go-to runner as a true counter to Kevin Faulk being the 3rd down back. Only Faulk and Pass were under contract going into 2004.
During the 2005 season, the Pats used Corey Dillon, Mike Cloud, Patrick Pass, Amos Zereoue, and Kevin Faulk.. Belichick wanted a go to runner to bring and and learn from Dillon.. Only Dillon and Faulk were under contract going into 2006.
During the 2010 season, the Pats had BJGE, Woodhead, Sammie Morris, Fred Taylor, and Kevin Faulk. Taylor and Faulk were on their last legs. Morris was pretty much done as well. So the Pats had BJGE and Woodhead. They needed more bodies..
The difference between this year and the years that you mention?
Legarrette Blount is under contract for next year.
Jonas Gray is under contract for next year.
Brandon Bolden is under contract for next year.
Tyler Gaffney is under contract for next year, though he is coming off an injury, which doesn't bode well for him..
James White is under contract for next year.
I think it's fairly obvious that your assumptions about the 2004, 2006, and 2011 years are erroneous and that invalidates the entire premise of the idea of why the Patriots would use a 2nd round pick on a RB.
You shrugging off the upgrading of the interior line (both left and right guard) lends to the idea that you just don't understand how valuable good O-linemen are to a running game.
As for the statement that "BB doesn't pay for RBs", that is about as true as saying "BB doesn't pay for WRs". Both statements are false. BB has paid for RBs.. He paid for Corey Dillon. He paid for Maroney. He paid for Kevin Faulk.
BB will pay for what he believes is talent. Plain and simple. He's done it with every position on the team except punter, I think.
The only CLEAR pattern that BB has established is that he's pretty methodical. He and the coaches rate all the players on the team. Then they rate all the players who are available in free agency as well as the players that make the lists that the scouting department gives him and Caserio. They prioritize what they need and where they can get the best bang for the buck. If it so happens that the best bang for the buck is a 2nd round RB, then that's what it will be.. However, in my honest opinion, the likelihood of that is going to be low because they already have 5 on the roster who they know and unless you can say, with certainty, that any of these top RBs you mention will be better than Blount, Gray or White, I just don't see it happening.
