Vereen - stay or go?

Fencer said:

I think Woodhead was actually the best between-the-tackles runner of all of them. But that's based on gut feel and casual memory of stats, not rigorous analysis of stats or consideration of eye tests.

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Pretty accurate imo, Woodhead was really good between the tackles.

I think Vereen is a decent runner but imo his real value is as the receiving bank and the redundancy he provides at WR . The patriots just won a Super Bowl based largely upon their short passing game as a defacto run game, in fact two of their three wins came from that game plan, and it is safe to say they wouldn't have won it without that aspect of their offense producing as it did against Baltimore and Seattle, now I am hearing many here talking about essentially gutting it by getting rid of both Vereen and Amendola, I.e. two third of that attack. Imo they can get Amendola to restructure with incentives and they can afford Vereen and keep the triangle of Edelman, Vereen, and Amendola together and provide Brady with the same attack that won them a Super Bowl at a cost equal to a top WR for three guys. That's value IMO, and Belichick loves value and versatility, and those three provide it. Gutting Brady's weapons is a bad idea IMO, hopefully they won't do it.

Ivan said:

I am hearing many here talking about essentially gutting it by getting rid of both Vereen and Amendola

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I agree that getting rid of both is a bad idea, but of the two, the team has more leverage over Amendola IMO. He already got paid and would be amenable to restructuring to $2mm plus incentives. Vereen is at a high value point and would be foolish to accept anything less than $3.5mm. Add in the fact that NE has a better track record with receiving backs than WRs and the choice is clear for me.

If I'm wrong about Amendola being willing to restructure, then I'd go the other way.

Oswlek said:

I agree that getting rid of both is a bad idea, but of the two, the team has more leverage over Amendola IMO. He already got paid and would be amenable to restructuring to $2mm plus incentives. Vereen is at a high value point and would be foolish to accept anything less than $3.5mm. Add in the fact that NE has a better track record with receiving backs than WRs and the choice is clear for me.

If I'm wrong about Amendola being willing to restructure, then I'd go the other way.

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I agree on Amendola but would like to see the savings go to keeping Vereen. Two of the best playoff defenses couldn't stop that attack and if they get Amendola to restructure they are essentially keeping all three at the same cost. I see great value in starting next season with Brady comfortable with all of his offensive weapons.

Ivan said:

If you think Vereen is "useless" you must feel the same about Woodhead because their rushing numbers are very similar.

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Oswlek said:

Vereen was pretty good, but worsened over 2014 and was, in fact, useless as a runner at the end of the year.

I say this with regret, because I've always liked Shane and only wanted him to do well.

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Shane Vereen had 38 or less yards rushing in 16/19 games this year. The other games were highs of 40 and 43.

As noted before, he did have the one good game vs. CIN early in the year where he broke one and ran for 90 yards on 9 carries.

That's about as "useless" in the running game as one can be, but yes--it is very comparable to Danny Woodhead, so I think we can assume that the coaches just don't see either one as "real" RBs who can carry the ball much more than 6-7 times per game.

supafly said:

Shane Vereen had 38 or less yards rushing in 16/19 games this year. The other games were highs of 40 and 43.

As noted before, he did have the one good game vs. CIN early in the year where he broke one and ran for 90 yards on 9 carries.

That's about as "useless" in the running game as one can be, but yes--it is very comparable to Danny Woodhead, so I think we can assume that the coaches just don't see either one as "real" RBs who can carry the ball much more than 6-7 times per game.

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Which is why I said his real value is as a receiving back and ability to play wr if Amendola or Edelman are out.

Ivan said:

Which is why I said his real value is as a receiving back and ability to play wr if Amendola or Edelman are out.

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I don't think anyone will dispute your notion that Vereen can be important to our offense at times. Unfortunately, he may have some bad luck hitting FA in 2015 if he wishes to remain in N.England. They're already over the cap at the moment, with lots of major priorities left and only 3 weeks to do it in.

I think we should be much more concerned with how they are going to be able to try and keep both Revis and McCourty.

supafly said:

Shane Vereen had 38 or less yards rushing in 16/19 games this year. The other games were highs of 40 and 43.

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I'm not even talking about the total yardage, Shane was the king of the 1 yard draw play. After a great showing against Cincy, Shane went over 4 ypc only 4 times in 13 games. And two of those 4 times were games with a single carry!

It's not like I picked an arbitrary break point, either. Only once in the other 9 games is he even close (3.9ypc) and only twice does he even break 3 ypc (3.9/3.3).

Contrast that to Woodhead who, in 15 games in 2010, hit 4.0 10 times (with only two games below 3 ypc - 2.0 and 2.8) and who broke 4 ypc 11 times in 18 games in 2011.

I hope we can retain Vereen, I think he is a fantastic player, who was maybe even underutilized this season. Yet, given the current cap situation, I'm not sure I see it happening.

I'm not sure how much a team will be willing to pay him, simply because of the other available free agents and the amazing depth of young talent at RB in the draft. That said, I'd assume his SB performance certainly earned him some extra money.

Zuma said:

I think they think James White has the potential to fill Vereen's role...with help from Blount and Gray. That's my opinion.

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BB does a great job of looking ahead and with the possibility of Vereen leaving, that's why he picked up Gaffney when he did. Thus, I see a good competition for Vereen's position IF he leaves.

Ivan said:

Which is why I said his real value is as a receiving back and ability to play wr if Amendola or Edelman are out.

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Since you and I examined the positional grouping for other positions in the past, we could certainly attempt to do it again here with RBs.

One may be able to envision a situation where the money that would've been paid to Ridley is now paid to Vereen--except that may be pushing it. As you said, only time will tell, and we all want to see the team remain intact as much as possible.

supafly said:

I don't think anyone will dispute your notion that Vereen can be important to our offense at times. Unfortunately, he may have some bad luck hitting FA in 2015 if he wishes to remain in N.England. They're already over the cap at the moment, with lots of major priorities left and only 3 weeks to do it in.

I think we should be much more concerned with how they are going to be able to try and keep both Revis and McCourty.

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Sup. Like pretty much every other Patriot fan have the Revis and McCourty deals as the priority, however I don't believe that deals for 3-4 million or under really have any bearing on those deals. They will either sign those guys or they won't regardless of whether they re-sign the DBs. Deals like Vereen have more relation to unit spending, versatility, and players they want to re-sign like Connolly, Ayers, and Ridley. And while I would like to see all of those guys return I prioritize Vereen over them and a consider him one of their most important re-signs. IMO he has become their new Kevin Faulk. And like Faulk I think evaluating him on stats sells him way short, and I think the eye test of how critical he was on big plays and helping them win is a much better barometer for him. I think Brady has a trust factor with his receivers and he is really comfortable with Edelman, Vereen, and Amenfola and keeping them together is easily achievable and desirable. If they get Amendola to restructure and apply the savings to keeping Vereen it really doesn't cost them anything at all and keeps Brady's weapons intact.

Ivan said:

Sup. Like pretty much every other Patriot fan have the Revis and McCourty deals as the priority, however I don't believe that deals for 3-4 million or under really have any bearing on those deals. They will either sign those guys or they won't regardless of whether they re-sign the DBs. Deals like Vereen have more relation to unit spending, versatility, and players they want to re-sign like Connolly, Ayers, and Ridley. And while I would like to see all of those guys return I prioritize Vereen over them and a consider him one of their most important re-signs. IMO he has become their new Kevin Faulk. And like Faulk I think evaluating him on stats sells him way short, and I think the eye test of how critical he was on big plays and helping them win is a much better barometer for him. I think Brady has a trust factor with his receivers and he is really comfortable with Edelman, Vereen, and Amenfola and keeping them together is easily achievable and desirable. If they get Amendola to restructure and apply the savings to keeping Vereen it really doesn't cost them anything at all and keeps Brady's weapons intact.

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I'm not claiming that I don't understand or even agree with your argument on some level, only that yes--the potential deals with both Revis and McCourty could have A LOT to do with the ability to keep some of those other guys together.

Then again, I personally don't believe that they can afford to keep both Revis and McCourty, so in that case they'll have to try to retain Revis and keep some of the other key players.

I would drive both Gostkowski and Vereen to the airport to keep Revis, Mccourty and I'll say Ayers.
If Mayo and Wilfork won't restructure I'll make sure I bring a van so they can also call dibs for a window seat.

It feels so good to not have the least bit of fear on second and third and long down and distances.
That is worth its weight in gold.

ChrisR2223 said:

I would drive both Gostkowski and Vereen to the airport to keep Revis, Mccourty and I'll say Ayers.
If Mayo and Wilfork won't restructure I'll make sure I bring a van so they can also call dibs for a window seat.

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Losing very important players such as: Wilfork, Mayo, Vereen, and Gostkowski to save Revis and McCourty may be very counter-productive, particularly in the mind of Bill Belichick.

Those are some key players right there.

I think I'd definitely agree with a combination of 2/4, maybe even 3/4--but not ALL four.

supafly said:

I understand what you're saying that Belichick just won't see the value there. I agree.

That said, I don't feel that this is the year, cap-wise, where we really could afford it either. There are just too many other priorities that need to be addressed.

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I disagree. Even

supafly said:

Losing very important players such as: Wilfork, Mayo, Vereen, and Gostkowski to save Revis and McCourty may be very counter-productive, particularly in the mind of Bill Belichick.

Those are some key players right there.

I think I'd definitely agree with a combination of 2/4, maybe even 3/4--but not ALL four.

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MAYO
OK, Mayo is going nowhere. In any case, it cannot be cut to save cap room by March 10. He is injured and would get his injury guarantee. There would be ZERO cap savings. In fact, Mayo "should" be restructured before March 10th if the team really needs the 3 or 4 million of cap savings. There could even be a movement of some salary to incentives. The open question is how much Mayo will contribute in 2015.

WILFORK
Wilfork's 2015 cap shouldn't be more than $5.5M, a savings of $3M. He will go if he doesn't; want a pay cut. McCourty and Revis have almost nothing to do with the decision.

So, we can sign Revis at as a high an AAV as Belichick wants and still have a cap savings of $12M for a total of $19M of savings. After the 4 we're now over, we have $16M. McCourty gets $9.5M. That leaves $6.5M plus Amendola will be cut a couple of million to give us $8.5M

BOTTOM LINE
1) We're not paying Revis $20M.
2) McCourty will play for us.
3) We're not paying Wilfork $8.5M
4) Mayo can be restructured for the same money.
5) There is plenty of room to sign Gostokowski and/or Vereen, if Belichick so chooses. If they go, it will be because belichick thinks that they are no worth what they are asking in compensation.
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IF YOUR GOAL IS TO KEEP AT LEAST 3
Then just cut Wilfork and move on.

The Patriots just won their 4th Super Bowl in 14 years...6 appearances in the big game during that span.11 or is it 12 AFC East titles.

My goal? My goal is I'll wait and see what Bill Belichick decides to do, and then move on to the draft. I mean if we're all talking about who's got the biggest "expert" unit around here, I'll go with the coach.

Joker said:

The Patriots just won their 4th Super Bowl in 14 years...6 appearances in the big game during that span.11 or is it 12 AFC East titles.

My goal? My goal is I'll wait and see what Bill Belichick decides to do, and then move on to the draft. I mean if we're all talking about who's got the biggest "expert" unit around here, I'll go with the coach.

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If answer is "trust the coach", and there needs to be no other discussion? If you don't want to post until Belichick has made all the decisions on March 10 , we'll understand. You might post that day to say how everything Bill decided was great, and then wait to congratulate Belichick on his other decisions in free agency and the draft.

IMHO, that is not what this board is here for. Most of us are here to speculate, to discuss and even to argue.

and to chicken little the death out of this team...stop setting yourself up as some friggin' Mgteich Uber Alles roster know-it-all...I read your bull before THIS past season started. If the Pats had done 1/2 of what YOU wanted they'd have come in last. Don't ever patronize me again.