Devin McCourty

Deus Irae said:

Yeah.... No. Good comedy, though. As I pointed out already, they were 5th once Browner entered the lineup, yet you're harping on "7th!". That's just one example of why your analysis sucks.



If you can't accept why it's significant to use Browner's return as the starting point, you're either trolling or just clueless about what was happening in the team's secondary. That's not looking at DL/LB issues (i.e. Mayo going down soon after Browner's return). That's strictly using Browner's return.

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McCourty played in all 16 games. A defense is always going have players in and out. That is the nature of the football. You can't excuse Browner's absence for the Pats without realizing that other teams lost players along the way as well. The Pats were fortunate this season defensively in that they got stronger as the season went along rather than weaker. Your argument seems to be more for the value of Browner anyways, we're talking McCourty here.

McClusky said:

Quite on the contrary, I can guarantee that my opinion is formed with about as much hard data and tape consideration as virtually anybody's. I didn't really form this opinion through any other means other than watching McCourty looking for examples of him flashing the kind of plays that people seem to believe he makes. If someone wants to find me the games and plays where he's flashing these skills on the regular please point me to it, but as of now when we're talking about true "elite" players who are worth significant cap allocation, I just have not seen the kind of play that warrants it.

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The problems seems to be that you don't know what you are looking at. When Dmac is playing single high and the QB avoids throwing to a receiver running a fade on the sideline and has his corner slightly beaten, that could be because Dmac has the range, instincts and ball skills to pick that ball off. Go back to 2011 and you will see QBs take that same throw against our single high safety. This shows DMacs skills. Just because it isn't flashy doesn't mean it isn't very good. You just have to know what to look for.

McClusky said:

I presented a couple of factual points, the Pats were 12th in DVOA, were a middle of the pack YPG and turnover team, and while they ranked high in PPG they were still 7th and almost 4ppg off of Seattle.

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I already addressed the DVOA issue, so we'll move on to the rest.

YPG - NE is historically a team that allows yards easier than the points would imply. 2001 is well known for the 24/6 split in rank for yards/points, but it's fairly consistent throughout. Even in 2003, when they were far and away the best defense in points, they were still 7th in yards, nearly 40 ypg behind the leading Cowboys. This yardage/point split, FWIW, is one of the reasons DVOA can't quite get a handle on NE. Other than the Patriots, there is minimal historic precedents for teams that can consistently stop the latter while allowing the former.

Turnover - considering how many turnovers the team was forcing in 2010 and 2011, I'm not sure how compelling this argument is.

Seattle - Heading into the playoffs, some of us questioned how dominant Seattle's defense really was. No one denies their excellence, just that the absurd string of QB luck may have elevated their numbers. NE and GB's success (and, to a lesser extent, Carolina's) appear to have confirmed this idea.

McClusky said:

The Pats are not an elite defense yet, they're very good and got much better, but there are still a handful that I would take over ours. Not everyone is quite as good as some of the fans think.

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They were unquestionably elite in the second half of the year. Aside from that, though, even if I granted that the overall unit isn't as good as people think, that has little to do with Devin. Isn't it possible that Wilfork, Jones and Nink could be overrated without McCourty being so?

Marinlik said:

The problems seems to be that you don't know what you are looking at. When Dmac is playing single high and the QB avoids throwing to a receiver running a fade on the sideline and has his corner slightly beaten, that could be because Dmac has the range, instincts and ball skills to pick that ball off. Go back to 2011 and you will see QBs take that same throw against our single high safety. This shows DMacs skills. Just because it isn't flashy doesn't mean it isn't very good. You just have to know what to look for.

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Those actually were exactly the kind of plays I was looking for, they weren't really as prevalent as you'd think. McCourty isn't really all that fast at diagnosing routes, and made a handful of really bad reads last season. Again, I feel like you guys are where I was at before I actually went and looked for this stuff.

This isn't at all to say McCourty isn't good, but I'm just not taking McCourty is elite at face value like it seems a lot of people around here are doing.

McClusky said:

Those actually were exactly the kind of plays I was looking for, they weren't really as prevalent as you'd think. McCourty isn't really all that fast at diagnosing routes, and made a handful of really bad reads last season. Again, I feel like you guys are where I was at before I actually went and looked for this stuff.

This isn't at all to say McCourty isn't good, but I'm just not taking McCourty is elite at face value like it seems a lot of people around here are doing.

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How much time did you spend analyzing all the other safeties in the league?

Oswlek said:

How much time did you spend analyzing all the other safeties in the league?

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Haha I have other things to do with my life as well

I have watched the truly elite like ETIII and Harrison Smith. There is a discernable difference between those guys and McCourty. There is a lot of really bad safety play as well, I mean if McCourty left and we got Chris Conte type play we'd be much more worse off because of it. I think Harmon would be much better than that though.

Miguel said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...014-allpro-teams-analysis-of-the-full-rosters
shows that McCourty getting 2 All-Pro votes.

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From 50 voters. That places him tied for 7th among safeties.

patchick said:

I'm a little puzzled by your list, which doesn't seem to include players like Gronkowski, Hernandez and Wilfork, all of whom were re-signed to significant deals.

As for "top-level starter," suppose we let the market decide. When was the last time a Patriots player at the conclusion of his rookie contract was signed to multiyear deal with, say, $8 million+ in guarantees by a team other than the Patriots?

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I called out the players that the team let hit FA, traded or cut.

My point was that there were/are players who started or had substantial roles that for one reason or another the team let walk. That's all.

patchick said:

When was the last time a top-level starter coming off a rookie contract didn't get a second contract from the Patriots? It would shock me. McCourty is absolutely perfect for this defense -- with Revis as much as without.

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Asante?

Miguel said:

Doubt that the Patriots will hold McCourty's lack of Pro Bowls against him when they, not him, were the ones who could have fixed his listing.

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It's dumb they even list them as FS and SS on the ballot. Should just be safety. Some teams essentially have two FS and others have two SS.

Tebucky should probably be on the list. Maybe Wilson as well. I forget the TBC story; if I had to say something, he was paid but then cut the next year.

robertweathers said:

Top level starter is a broad term. Based on my research below they have kept most of the players that have seen significant playing time but for a number of reasons have let a few key starters walk.

2011- Vereen and Ridley were drafted but will both hit FA. From that same draft, Cannon was signed and started a a good chunk of 2013 after Vollmer went down. Solder issigned but carries a $8m nut for 2015 and should be restructured.

2010- Spikes walked but I think that was mutual.

2009- Chung and Vollmer. Chung for various reasons and Vollmer hit FA, then was signed. Certainly his situation was durability- not performance.

2008- None. They signed Slater and Mayo.

2007- Merriweather. Good riddance

2006- LoMo. Serviceable but was done.

2005- Hobbs

2004- Watson

2003- A$ante (but was franchised)

2002- Graham, Branch, Givens.

2001-

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McClusky said:

McCourty played in all 16 games. here.

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That's irrelevant to the point about the defensive improvement, but crucial to pointing out the problem with your argument. You're using team stats to evaluate an individual, while ignoring the elephant in the room.


You just don't get it.

I think there are three Patriots who are franchise-level players: Brady, Gronk, and Revis (kickers don't count). Then there are ten or so good-but-not-great players (McCourty is one of them), and a ton of guys who have a role to play and do it well. I wouldn't want to lose any of those good-but-not-great players, but I wouldn't pay any of them $9M to stay.

Spiral said:

I think there are three Patriots who are franchise-level players: Brady, Gronk, and Revis (kickers don't count). Then there are ten or so good-but-not-great players (McCourty is one of them), and a ton of guys who have a role to play and do it well. I wouldn't want to lose any of those good-but-not-great players, but I wouldn't pay any of them $9M to stay.

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Why dont kickers count?

DMC is better than good.

Spiral said:

I think there are three Patriots who are franchise-level players: Brady, Gronk, and Revis (kickers don't count). Then there are ten or so good-but-not-great players (McCourty is one of them), and a ton of guys who have a role to play and do it well. I wouldn't want to lose any of those good-but-not-great players, but I wouldn't pay any of them $9M to stay.

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What's your upper limit on Jamie Collins in 2 years if he continues to progress like has so far?

Deus Irae said:

That's irrelevant to the point about the defensive improvement, but crucial to pointing out the problem with your argument. You're using team stats to evaluate an individual, while ignoring the elephant in the room.


You just don't get it.

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Reducing football to statistically based arguments is folly. It's not baseball and shouldn't be treated like it is. This is the unfortunate result of fantasy football and sites like PFF. You know things have gone awry when having a math major is more important than actually watching and seeing the game.

Fencer said:

Tebucky should probably be on the list. Maybe Wilson as well. I forget the TBC story; if I had to say something, he was paid but then cut the next year.

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Yea Tebucky they tagged and traded him. Eugene Wilson couldnt stay healthy and TBC seemed more like a situational guy but played a ton during his second stint here.

robertweathers said:

Yea Tebucky they tagged and traded him. Eugene Wilson couldnt stay healthy and TBC seemed more like a situational guy but played a ton during his second stint here.

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Geno was let go because he wasn't nearly the same guy without Rodney next to him.

I don;t think this kid is going anywhere....at least i hope not!

I have no problem giving him 7 million dollars. I hope he stays