Vereen - stay or go?

OK...I went out on a limb last preseason with MY opinion, borne of actual eye witnessing, that Josh Boyce was NOT going to replace Amendola or anybody else in the WR lineup. Once again,having SEEN White, I will have to stand adamant that he is not the replacement for Vereen. AFAIC White=Boyce.

I'd move on to FA and the draft for solutions.

supafly said:

Wow..."keeping Vereen will be a big piece if there's any hope to repeat." (???)

Give me a break.

You're sure banking an awful lot on a RB who caught THREE or less passes in 10/19 games this year, and had single digit carries in 17/19 games.

Shane Vereen is a nice complimentary piece, and really showcased his skills in the past 1.5 seasons, but he is certainly someone they can plan around, replace on some level, and continue to be productive without. You're talking about a team who has generally been in the top 5 offenses for quite some time now.

This is the age of the salary cap. I'd love to see Vereen back for 2m per year or something, but it's probably not too likely that another team won't offer more. The fact that we have some much bigger priorities at the moment probably won't help his cause to stay here, unfortunately.

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11 catches in the Super Bowl win and some extremely clutch yardage in the last 2 comeback drives. I'd say he's a critical piece of the puzzle for us. I'm a fan of our power backs Blount and Gray but no way do those guys get the receiving yards Vereen did.

Joker said:

OK...I went out on a limb last preseason with MY opinion, borne of actual eye witnessing, that Josh Boyce was NOT going to replace Amendola or anybody else in the WR lineup. Once again,having SEEN White, I will have to stand adamant that he is not the replacement for Vereen. AFAIC White=Boyce.

I'd move on to FA and the draft for solutions.

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I would imagine that no matter what, they're probably pretty likely to bring in some competition, sure. Good call.

White's main issues supposedly were in blitz pickup, as well as knowing his assignments/play calls. I have no idea if he'll be able to replace any of what Vereen does, should Vereen move on. I think we all agree that White will definitely be in the mix though.

Donald Brown is a perfect example. San Diego paid $3.5 million a year and got, essentially, bupkis.

223 yards at a punishing 2.6 ypc. 29 catches.

I hope he was good at picking up the blitz because he sure didn't do anything else.

I'm sure Vereen can come up with some damn fool team that will offer him a big contract, but it ain't gonna be Belichick throwin' around Demarco Murray money.

I like Vereen. Love to keep him. But, it's market pricing in the NFL and RBs have been in the bargain bin lately.

LeoparCT said:

11 catches in the Super Bowl win and some extremely clutch yardage in the last 2 comeback drives. I'd say he's a critical piece of the puzzle for us. I'm a fan of our power backs Blount and Gray but no way do those guys get the receiving yards Vereen did.

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I think you're greatly overstating Vereen's importance to the N.England Patriots by predicting that "we'll need to keep him in order to have any chance of repeating," but that's just my opinion.

As I said, he had 3 or less catches the majority of the games (10/19), and doesn't really do anything as a running back via carrying the ball. There's also the fact that he missed the first half of last season, where they somehow muddled through to a 7-2 record without him during that time. Believe it or not, life went on before Shane Vereen.

If he goes, they'll need to re-draft a RB or two in the spring, along with bring in the usual cheap cast-offs and UDFAs to compete for someone who can take over that role that you brought up against the stout defensive fronts of DET and SEA (as you mention his importance in the Super Bowl).

That's really what it comes down to: the ability of the N.England Patriots to find a different way to combat the stout defensive fronts of teams such as Detroit and Seattle, where he excelled this year with his best games (8 and 11 catches). That said, I find it doubtful that Bill Belichick will see value in overpaying for him to take on that specific role for a few games per year. They're either creative enough to come up with a new approach and/or bring in cheap rookies or value selections to try and replicate the same role.

hwc said:

Donald Brown is a perfect example. San Diego paid $3.5 million a year and got, essentially, bupkis.

223 yards at a punishing 2.6 ypc. 29 catches.

I hope he was good at picking up the blitz because he sure didn't do anything else.

I'm sure Vereen can come up with some damn fool team that will offer him a big contract, but it ain't gonna be Belichick throwin' around Demarco Murray money.

I like Vereen. Love to keep him. But, it's market pricing in the NFL and RBs have been in the bargain bin lately.

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There are currently 22 NFL running backs who are making at least 3m dollar per year. Many of them do not have the youth, draft status (2nd round), and SB winning resume that Shane Vereen has, even if I agree that he's somewhat overrated here in this particular scenario.

To suggest that another team won't pay him that kind of money or that Reiss' projections are somehow flawed just isn't true. Look at some of those names on that list and try and tell me that Shane Vereen doesn't fit in that category.

As far as bringing up another team's offer (DAL with their base offer of 4/16 to Murray plus incentives that would make it around 5 million plus--AAV), that's completely irrelevant. Just because DAL offered Murray the chance to make 5 million a year, which he wisely turned down since there is a market that will pay him more, doesn't mean that all of a sudden, Shane Vereen isn't worth 3--3.5.

Let's also remember that DeMarco Murray has had a grand total of ONE good year where he hasn't battled injuries, etc--so the Cowboys' offer may be closer to the mark than you think.

http://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

Sup, When I checked out your link, it seemed like all of the RB's who made over $3MM had resumes much more accomplished than what Shane Vareen has put together. I was interested to note that Danny Woodhead left for a $2.7MM contract. I think the Pats would have paid Danny that much had Vareen hadn't been on the roster on his rookie contract. It was more that he was redundant than the money that forced Woodhead out, IMO.

My guess is the Pats would go as high as $2.2MM/AV to keep him, and given the stats you gave, and his solid but unspectacular year, I wonder if he would get more than the Woodhead contract from anyone else. And if that's the case, Vareen would be much better off getting a half million less to stay in NE. He could more than make up the difference between the playoff money and branding his name with Tom Brady and a perennial winning team. However once the number starts to get over a Million/yr difference, he's likely a goner.

The Pats are going to give him the number they value him at, but he's a guy I'd be OK letting him get to FA and see if what the Pats are offering is in the ballpark. If they aren't so be it, if they are, I don't think they'll have to be the top offer to get him back. He's a smart kid, and can see the long term benefits of playing his career with the Pats.

According you your list, there are 18 RBs making an avg 3.5 million a year or more.... and quite a few of those have been or are going to be released because they make too much. I like Shane Vereen. Is he one of the top 18 RBs in the NFL? That would be a stretch.

I would characterize him as a solid, but not spectacular, 3rd down back.

Unfortunately for veteran running backs, it's a BIC lighter position. Buy 'em cheap in the draft. Flick 'em for fours years. Toss 'em and buy the next cheap one. The incremental production of a five or six year veteran over a young guy is just not worth $3 million a year.

I don't like the moves the cap forces the Pats to make, but it is what it is. RBs are a dime a dozen and likely to be used up after a few years.

patfanken said:

Sup, When I checked out your link, it seemed like all of the RB's who made over $3MM had resumes much more accomplished than what Shane Vareen has put together.

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Really?

I can easily look at about half of the 22 players are point out pedigrees that are insanely lower than Shane Vereen's 2nd round draft status and 11 catch SB performance!




1) Jonathan Stewart

2) CJ Spiller

3) Joique Bell

4) Trent Richarson

5) Ryan Matthews

6) Donald Brown

7) Toby Gerhart

8) Shonne Green

9) Knowshown Moreno

10) Deangelo Williams


If you want, you can add in old has-beens such as RB Steven Jackson who has been ready to retire for a couple of years now, as well as ex-Jets RB Chris Johnson who was released today. That would bring it to a grand total of 12 players/out of 22 on the list.

Add in their decision to consider James Casey a RB, and we're now up to 13/22, or approx. 65 percent of the people on the list. I didn't include either Jackson or Johnson, because they actually produced at some point of their careers, although it's certainly been awhile.

The Pats are going to give him the number they value him at, but he's a guy I'd be OK letting him get to FA and see if what the Pats are offering is in the ballpark.

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Kirwin says that nobody analyzes and understands the current market pricing of NFL players better than Belichick. He gets a daily market report with every transaction and up to the minute comparables at every position.

hwc said:

According you your list, there are 18 RBs making an avg 3.5 million a year or more.... and quite a few of those have been or are going to be released because they make too much. I like Shane Vereen. Is he one of the top 18 RBs in the NFL? That would be a stretch.

I would characterize him as a solid, but not spectacular, 3rd down back.

Unfortunately for veteran running backs, it's a BIC lighter position. Buy 'em cheap in the draft. Flick 'em for fours years. Toss 'em and buy the next cheap one. The incremental production of a five or six year veteran over a young guy is just not worth $3 million a year.

I don't like the moves the cap forces the Pats to make, but it is what it is. RBs are a dime a dozen and likely to be used up after a few years.

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I'm hardly advocating the decision to pay Vereen 3 million dollars a year. As a matter of fact, I don't think Belichick would pay him anything over TWO million dollars per year. I'm simply stating why Mike Reiss made his projection, and the fact that there are still plenty of RBs who are making 3 million + dollars in the NFL right now.

Double TE said:

He is worth $1.5m per yr

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I don't think you see what the NFL is paying players like vereen, $1.5 million is barely a pay raise over his rookie deal. Players like vereen have a good deal of value in the NFL

I have no idea what Vereen is worth on Belichick's market analysis. I just know it's not $3.5 million a year. Laveon Bell's making $1 million a year.

If Vereen's agent gave Reiss the $3.5 mil comparables (it's usually the agent), then it will be a short negotiation, a handshake, and a sincere thanks for his contribution and best wishes with his new team. No hard feelings.

Resign the beast.....Vereen is pretty much Woohead X Ridley....offer him a salary of 2 to 3.5 mil

In a perfect world my top 3 backs next year are

Blount
The Rookie we Draft
Vareen

supafly said:

I would imagine that no matter what, they're probably pretty likely to bring in some competition, sure. Good call.

White's main issues supposedly were in blitz pickup, as well as knowing his assignments/play calls. I have no idea if he'll be able to replace any of what Vereen does, should Vereen move on. I think we all agree that White will definitely be in the mix though.

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I thought White looked slow and easy to tackle.

I think people get way too caught up in trying to manage the cap for the Patriots. I think Vereen will be back, many here don't we will see what happens?

At Cal he looked so fast, but for some reason he does not look very fast in a Pats Uniform. He is good, but he really is a toss up for me.

hwc said:

I have no idea what Vereen is worth on Belichick's market analysis. I just know it's not $3.5 million a year. Laveon Bell's making $1 million a year.

If Vereen's agent gave Reiss the $3.5 mil comparables (it's usually the agent), then it will be a short negotiation, a handshake, and a sincere thanks for his contribution and best wishes with his new team. No hard feelings.

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Bell is on a rookie deal.

White played 3 games.
4.2 Avg rushing ( Garbage time i know)
4.6 avg receiving ( 5 rec - 5 tgts)
Better numbers as a rookie when compared to Vereen.

At least let the guy play ONE season.

Vereen is a great player, but woodhead was a great player too.
Sproles is a better player than Vereen, with STs role, and got 3/10.5. ( I know he is older ... ) but
anything above 9.5 please BB walk away. We can find a player in the draft cheaper and with similar numbers ( im not talking about the SB performance).