Vereen - stay or go?

My concern is that these "replaceable" passing RBs take time to develop. Faulk took years to round into form. Vereen has only recently become reliable, in receiving and blocking alike, and he's still a so-so ballcarrier. J. R. Redmond, BB decided, would never make it, one outstanding Super Bowl play notwithstanding.

Other than Woodhead and some grizzled vets (Meggett, Centers), everybody has taken time. And Woodhead was so small that, despite apparently good technique, he was only so-so as a pass blocker, and pass-blocking is a huge part of the job.

I recognize that the Patriots want to pay only so much per each of 22 positions, and at RB they split that money a lot of ways. But either it was a mistake to lowball Woodhead or else the Patriots were right that Vereen would be better than he was. Perhaps Vereen, despite not being as good yet, should be regarded as still developing, and hence paid similarly to Faulk.

I would love to see him stay, but with Revis and McCourtey as first options and with Ghost set to hit the market as well, I'm not sure how much we would be willing to pay him as compared to other teams.
I think he has always been a reliable receiver and he came up really big in the Super Bowl. I hope I am wrong, but I think he will be playing elsewhere next year. :-(

I think people are making a mistake by looking at Vereen as simply a "3rd down back." Imo he's an all purpose back who can rush and receive out of the backfield and also split out wide or in the slot and contribute on special teams if needed. I think he fits perfectly the 4 down player that Belichick values above all other players, and imo Belichick will look at replacing him as requiring multiple players, and not simply a 3rd down back. I think he is one of the most likely free agents to return. We will see?

He's unlikely to return because we have much higher priorities for our cap $. Other teams will and should value his services. The whole history of the Pats has BB finding someone else for Role X when the incumbent $ become too large. >$3M is too large.

PatsWickedPissah said:

He's unlikely to return because we have much higher priorities for our cap $. Other teams will and should value his services. The whole history of the Pats has BB finding someone else for Role X when the incumbent $ become too large. >$3M is too large.

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As much as I'd like to see him stay, it's difficult to disagree with your well stated thoughts here.

Keep Vareen; he is an excellent receiver and the Patriots are not well stocked in that area. He was key in the SB.

FredFromDartmouth said:

Keep Vareen; he is an excellent receiver and the Patriots are not well stocked in that area. He was key in the SB.

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That's the main argument; but the concern, and rightly so, is that the free agent market will dictate a price that's much too high for the Patriots to afford.

As PWP stated, they just can't afford to pay him 3m dollars a year. Hell, we let Woodhead walk for half of that at 1.5--1.75 a year.

They'll probably have to hope that White develops, as well as some competition from Gaffney and maybe an additional draft pick.

Grab Ahmad Bradshaw or Roy Helu if he walks. McCourty and Revis should be the primary focus.

I disagree, I think he's well worth it and they will sign him.

Mankok said:

There is no way White fulfills Vereen's role. Can't even see him making the roster again. The perfect cheap replacement would be Duke Johnson from UMiami. He is a top notch receiver and a much better runner than Vereen. Can run inside with power or outside with speed. He would be a bargain if there at the end of round three. And most importantly he can pick up the blitz.

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Vereen didn't do much his rookie season. Wonder if it's possible Woodhead could get cut with the Chargers new Darren Sproles stepping in nicely.

I don't think people can say whether they can afford him out not until we have a better grip of what,they have gained through releases, restructures, and how much the cap is going up.

Anyone know what salary cap situations the Chargers are in? Woody is at 1.5 mill next season and Branden Oliver played well for them when he went down.

supafly said:

As PWP stated, they just can't afford to pay him 3m dollars a year. Hell, we let Woodhead walk for half of that at 1.5--1.75 a year.

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Whatever plan you might state for our cap and roster, I suggest that there will be an equally possible plan with extra restructure to produce the additional $2M needed, over whoever belichick might bring in at $1.5M. So, YES, the patriots CAN afford $3.5M.

IMHO, that is not the question before us. Belichick is unlikely to be willing to spend more than $3M for a running backs, especially not for a running back who isn't our first down back. It seems very unlikely that Belichick computes Vereen's added value at more than $3M to the patriots. Belichick will likely CHOOSE to spend the cap money elsewhere.

So, for me, it is not a matter of not being able to pay a RB $3.5 RB. It is a matter of the value of a RB in Vereen's role to the patriots compared to his value to other teams.

Ivan said:

I don't think people can say whether they can afford him out not until we have a better grip of what,they have gained through releases, restructures, and how much the cap is going up.

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I think that we have a grip. It's just that folks don't think that Belichick is willing to pay $3.5M for a RB that is not a starting RB, and likely wouldn't even be willing to pay if Vereen were the starter.

mgteich said:

I think that we have a grip. It's just that folks don't think that Belichick is willing to pay $3.5M for a RB that is not a starting RB, and likely wouldn't even be willing to pay if Vereen were the starter.

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We disagree. I think they see him as an all purpose player who fills a variety of roles and needs well for them. I'm betting he is back.

Ivan said:

I think people are making a mistake by looking at Vereen as simply a "3rd down back." Imo he's an all purpose back who can rush and receive out of the backfield and also split out wide or in the slot and contribute on special teams if needed. I think he fits perfectly the 4 down player that Belichick values above all other players, and imo Belichick will look at replacing him as requiring multiple players, and not simply a 3rd down back. I think he is one of the most likely free agents to return. We will see?

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You just described the role of passing-down/shotgun/whatever back on the Patriots. He should be somewhat competent as both a WR and a between-the-tackles RB. He should be more than competent on the pass plays and runs that will actually be called for him. He should be a good backfield pass blocker. And guys with that skill set are likely to also be useful on kick/punt return units.

mgteich said:

Whatever plan you might state for our cap and roster, I suggest that there will be an equally possible plan with extra restructure to produce the additional $2M needed, over whoever belichick might bring in at $1.5M. So, YES, the patriots CAN afford $3.5M.

IMHO, that is not the question before us. Belichick is unlikely to be willing to spend more than $3M for a running backs, especially not for a running back who isn't our first down back. It seems very unlikely that Belichick computes Vereen's added value at more than $3M to the patriots. Belichick will likely CHOOSE to spend the cap money elsewhere.

So, for me, it is not a matter of not being able to pay a RB $3.5 RB. It is a matter of the value of a RB in Vereen's role to the patriots compared to his value to other teams.

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I understand what you're saying that Belichick just won't see the value there. I agree.

That said, I don't feel that this is the year, cap-wise, where we really could afford it either. There are just too many other priorities that need to be addressed.

mgteich said:

I think that we have a grip. It's just that folks don't think that Belichick is willing to pay $3.5M for a RB that is not a starting RB, and likely wouldn't even be willing to pay if Vereen were the starter.

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Starter or not. No one took more snaps at RB for the Pats last season than Vereen.

Ivan said:

We disagree. I think they see him as an all purpose player who fills a variety of roles and needs well for them. I'm betting he is back.

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Reiss stated today that he sees the starting point north of Donald Brown's 3/10.5 deal signed with SD last year, which would mean something used as the starting point of 3/12 (4 million per year AAV).

I just don't see any scenario in the world where they could afford to keep Vereen at a price like that. That's the kind of money they gave to Julian Edelman last year, for crying out loud.

In the end, I hope that you're right and he does stay. I just have a very difficult time seeing how that would be possible, and what it would mean for other important players on our team (Revis, McCourty, Gostkowski, Connelly, Amendola, Mayo, Ridley, Wilfork, Arrington, Solder, etc).

supafly said:

I understand what you're saying that Belichick just won't see the value there. I agree.

That said, I don't feel that this is the year, cap-wise, where we really could afford it either. There are just too many other priorities that need to be addressed.

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I think his versatility is where the value is. How many guys can run the ball on any down, play 3rd down receiving back, WR and slot receiver, and contribute on special teams. Vereen is a perfect fit and can both start or provide insurance at multiple positions. He's well worth 3.5 a season and I believe they will pay him that.