Will Butler's success help us land more priority UDFAs?

mgteich said:

Please list all the UDFA's that the patriots have brought it at a higher bonus than a 7th rounder. Moe is a good example for discussion. We paid him almost as much as a 7th rounder, because their was competition for his services.

I agree with patchick that their is competition for these players. All teams have a list of players still on their boards. The calls begin immediately after draft. I suppose some players are even called during the 7th round and told that a team has interest.

What we are fussing about is calling any these players "high priority". They are indeed high priority in the sense that they are of high priority as the draft ends. If a player was of high priority before that, he would have been drafted, especially by the patriots who always seem to have at least 3 picks in the last two rounds.

The signing of UDFA's is the fourth day of the draft. Of course, UDFA's are also signed well after the draft, of those players not in the draft or player cut by other teams. The patriots do pretty well in this pool of players, as they are in all the others. We usually secure 2-3 players that end up on the 53 sometime during the year and contribute.

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I don't think there's a "list" for the Patriots. My original post said that SOME UDFAs get more guarantees than 7th round draft picks. That's true, and I've already listed the ones I know. So I don't understand why we're still on this point. It's just a fact. If you want to exclude Demps, that's fine, but there's several others (non-Patriots). Aain, I never claimed the Patriots had done this quite a bit either so I don't know why I'm asked to defend something I didn't say. But I think we're getting way off-track.

As for every player who is high priority would have been drafted, that's simply not true. There were 256 players drafted in 2014, and the Patriots could only draft 9 of them. There were way more than 9 players we wanted in that draft, and if we had a dozen other 7th round picks, we would have drafted a bunch more guys. There are only so many picks that can be made. If you have similar grades on three players in the 7th but you only have 1 7th-round pick, you pick one, but it doesn't mean the other two weren't good enough to be drafted. You would take them all if you could, and you'll often see BB trade back if he thinks he can get a few more of them before the UDFA signings open up.

As for whether it should be called high priority or not, I mean, there's a list of guys you want to look at. And you don't call them in alphabetical order. There's some guys that are high priority, some that are not. And the phone calls start the SECOND the draft ends. I don't understand how that isn't high priority. After multiple days of drafting, the first thing teams do the second they can is start calling their highest priority targets.

What else do you call that?

Thank You Malcolm #legend

convertedpatsfan said:

What else do you call that?

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I call this semantics. All you seem to be saying that everyone of the patriot list of potential draftees on Draft Day is high priority. And certainly, at the point that the draft ends, anyone on the list that is not drafted is high priority.

For me, the patriots have a list of targets, perhaps at every point in the draft. It is POSSIBLE that we have 5 high priority 7th round quality players. I just wouldn't use the words in that way. If a player were that much of a high priority, I would think that the patriots would sign him or trade a future 6th for an additional pick to sign him.
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In any case, the UDFA's have a window of about three days when the focus is on them. For the first 24 hours, we discuss "high priority" targets, binkies that we posters have. I don't use those words at that point. Of course, there is always a player or two that we think that should have been drafted. These players aren't high priority targets. Rather, these are players who are undraftable for a reason that we don't know.

mgteich said:

I call this semantics. All you seem to be saying that everyone of the patriot list of potential draftees on Draft Day is high priority. And certainly, at the point that the draft ends, anyone on the list that is not drafted is high priority.

For me, the patriots have a list of targets, perhaps at every point in the draft. It is POSSIBLE that we have 5 high priority 7th round quality players. I just wouldn't use the words in that way. If a player were that much of a high priority, I would think that the patriots would sign him or trade a future 6th for an additional pick to sign him.
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In any case, the UDFA's have a window of about three days when the focus is on them. For the first 24 hours, we discuss "high priority" targets, binkies that we posters have. I don't use those words at that point. Of course, there is always a player or two that we think that should have been drafted. These players aren't high priority targets. Rather, these are players who are undraftable for a reason that we don't know.

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I think it's a bit beyond semantics. I'm not saying everyone is equally important and everyone gets high priority. There are definitely guys who get higher priority.

Every player is ranked. Players higher up are higher priority. And if those guys slip out of the draft, they get the first call. They are high priority. Not as high priority as their first round pick, and not as high priority as their second round pick.

But just as all draft picks are not created equal, not all UDFAs are either. Some get the call right away, some have multiple offers, some get more guarantees because of that, and some don't get the call for a day or two or more. Some get the largest guarantee of the UDFAs like Cameron Gordon. Some of them don't even officially get signed until 9 days after the draft like Malcolm Butler.

I'm not saying guys like Butler are high priority (although maybe he should have been). Just that some UDFAs are high priority. It's a pretty simple thing and I have no idea why either of us are discussing it, let alone this many posts in.

I'd be interested to see how many UDFAs get to the final roster. My guy feeling is the Pats would be close to the top. Beyond that, they've also taken undrafted guys from other teams and made them contributors.

I can't think of any guys the Pats had, but cut and went on to be good players elsewhere. But I can think of a lot that the opposite was true, they turned their NE time into a successful career. Which is true even for drafted guys.

Woodhead, Lawfirm, Welker, Blount, etc. If you think you have the skills but are afraid the staff won't give you a shot because you were cut, or have a low draft status I would think NE looks attractive.

I liked this particular UDFA:

Oops! Part 2 :

To help me understand your prediction and the process better, how many rookie UDFA's made the final roster in 2014?

Bobsyouruncle said:

I'd be interested to see how many UDFAs get to the final roster. My guy feeling is the Pats would be close to the top. Beyond that, they've also taken undrafted guys from other teams and made them contributors.

I can't think of any guys the Pats had, but cut and went on to be good players elsewhere. But I can think of a lot that the opposite was true, they turned their NE time into a successful career. Which is true even for drafted guys.

Woodhead, Lawfirm, Welker, Blount, etc. If you think you have the skills but are afraid the staff won't give you a shot because you were cut, or have a low draft status I would think NE looks attractive.

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RayClay said:

Priority UDFA is an oxymoron.

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Agreed. If they were priorities they'd have been drafted in the 7th round at the very least

Not that there isn't competition for them. I'd rather be an UDFA able to pick and choose which team I go to, where I think there's a need and I have a shot, than drafted in the 7th round

So in answer to the OP, yes, Belichick's willingness to keep UDFAs on the roster DOES help him compete with other teams when there's multiple teams interested in a UDFA

Here's my UDFA hopeful. JJ Worton - WR - UCF. 6'2" 211LB. Jumbo sized slot receiver.

Check this catch out from last year. Saved the game for them at Temple.



Another one at PSU last year.



Some nice YAC on a catch vs PSU in their kickoff game in Ireland.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=11435753

See http://static.nfl.com/static/content/photo/2014/05/06/0ap2000000347146.pdf for some data on UDFAs

mgteich said:

To help me understand your prediction and the process better, how many rookie UDFA's made the final roster in 2014?

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My process is Miguel's link says they're 2nd in the NFL since 2010 with 28% of rookie UDFA's making the final roster. My prediction is that if you took UDFA's (rookie or not) as a percent of roster I think NE would be higher than most, but I don't have the data to see if it's true or not.

Patriots had 1 UDFA (Butler) make the 53-man roster. They traded for Tim Wright, another UDFA. If you include the 5 ERFAs on the Patriots roster, Pats have 65 players. 38 of them are UDFAs.

RayClay said:

Priority UDFA is an oxymoron.

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Yes and no. Obviously no one is thinking about "priority" UDFAs when pick #10 is being announced, but by the time the 6th round rolls by they certainly are. Most teams only have two selections remaining and a bunch of guys they consider similar so signability is definitely a factor. You'll take the kid that seems certain to go somewhere else over the other kid who is graded slightly higher but a good possibility to come on board as a UDFA.

It's also true that every draft leaves a handful of guys that, of those players remaining, they are higher priority.

All that said, Butler's play doesn't impact much of anything for NE moving forward. They already had a great track record with UDFAs and fit is always going to be the top factor for any unsigned rookie.

The ultimate irony of this thread is that Butler was the furthest thing from a priority free agent.

convertedpatsfan said:

They (Cowboys) also guaranteed $70K for Brandon Magee.

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That was a special case. The Pats were getting close to cornering the market on the Brandon position.

Okay, serious note - the Pats have gotten a very good "hit" rate in the later rounds, and it makes sense that they'd also have a good hit rate in the rounds we don't have anymore, i.e., in the UDFA market. That's a big part of why they've owned their division for 15 years (with 2 breaks) and have had more years in the AFC championship game than not.

Amazingly, those two breaks you mentioned. The Pats tied for first. Split with the winner. Had the same division record And, then lost on the third tie-breaker. Conf. record and common opponents. Can honestly say we've finished in first place 15 straight years.

mgteich said:

I call this semantics. All you seem to be saying that everyone of the patriot list of potential draftees on Draft Day is high priority. And certainly, at the point that the draft ends, anyone on the list that is not drafted is high priority.

For me, the patriots have a list of targets, perhaps at every point in the draft. It is POSSIBLE that we have 5 high priority 7th round quality players. I just wouldn't use the words in that way. If a player were that much of a high priority, I would think that the patriots would sign him or trade a future 6th for an additional pick to sign him.
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In any case, the UDFA's have a window of about three days when the focus is on them. For the first 24 hours, we discuss "high priority" targets, binkies that we posters have. I don't use those words at that point. Of course, there is always a player or two that we think that should have been drafted. These players aren't high priority targets. Rather, these are players who are undraftable for a reason that we don't know.

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A more accurate phrasing would be who went undrafted.

As an example, the Patriots signed Brian Hoyer as an UDFA in 2009 because they felt they had a better chance of signing him as an UDFA than they did of their seventh-round picks, Myron Pryor and Julian Edelman.

Miguel said:

Patriots had 1 UDFA (Butler) make the 53-man roster. They traded for Tim Wright, another UDFA. If you include the 5 ERFAs on the Patriots roster, Pats have 65 players. 38 of them are UDFAs.

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I thought that Fleming also made the 53, making it 3. Of course, everyone has lots of UDFA's now. The question is on the 53. I suspect that the 3 that the patriots had isn't that much higher than average.

I did some looking and I can't find any per team numbers but here's what I found.

465 players on rosters this year were undrafted, an average of 14.5 per team. Pats had 19.

That means on average 27% of NFL rosters are undrafted, the Patriots are at 36%.



64 UDFA rookies made rosters this year, an average of 2 per team. I think the Patriots had 2 this year, but 7 last year. Miguel's link showed NE #2 in percent that made the roster as rookies.

There was an NFL article showing 5 Patriots starters were undrafted (including punter and kicker), and 7 SEA starters including punter and kicker.

Bobsyouruncle said:

I did some looking and I can't find any per team numbers but here's what I found.

465 players on rosters this year were undrafted, an average of 14.5 per team. Pats had 38.

That means on average 27% of NFL rosters are undrafted, the Patriots are at 72%.

64 UDFA rookies made rosters this year, an average of 2 per team. I think the Patriots had 2 this year, but 7 last year. Miguel's link showed NE #2 in percent that made the roster as rookies.

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38? Of 53? That can't be right, can it?

Brady, Vereen, Edelman, Dobson, Gronk, Vollmer, Solder, Stork, Fleming, Cannon, White

Wilfork, Easley, Jones, Nink, HT, Mayo, Collins, Revis, McCourty, Harmon, #27....

That's 22 off the top of my head that were drafted. Clearly there is something up with those numbers.