Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

Oswlek · Feb 14, 2015

50-yard-line said:
Look at the numbers. Browner is 4.8 against the cap this year and next, with $0 guaranteed. That means cutting him would free up almost $10 over the next two years. Compare that to Mayo, who, if cut, saves us under 800k against the cap.

The Pats have leverage over Browner (Wilfork and Solder, too, for that matter), but very little over Amendola, Arrington or Mayo.

So yeah, you'd rather keep the first three than the last three, but you could cut all three of the last three(1.6 for Amendola + 865 for Arrington + 722 for Mayo) and save less than Cutting Browner alone, and barely half of cutting either Solder or Wilfork. Sure you could do the post-June 1 deal for these guys to save more this year, but you'd be pushing a lot of dead money into 2016.

I'd put a serious amount of money on the fact that Browner isn't cut. It won't happen.

Froob · Feb 14, 2015

Deus Irae said:
I don't expect Mayo to get cut. Instead, I think he'll get restructured, for a savings of between $3m and $5m. They'll essentially be buying him one more year with the team that way, while still freeing up cap room.

I could see another restructure, and possibly a pay cut, for Wilfork, although the incentives could pose some problems.

Amendola's a great candidate for a pay cut/restructure, IMO.

Solder is the most interesting to me. He's a prime candidate for an extension, but he's not worth top LT money and his concussions are an issue. I could see him pricing himself off the team, which could lead to a Cannon/Vollmer starting duo, and a nervous fan base, after this upcoming season. On the other hand, I could also see him getting a mid-range extension with a lowered 2015 cap hit.

Just my $.02

Might not be the end of the world to let Solder go if he's commanding top money. He's so inconsistent. And when he's bad, he's BAD. Perhaps they could take a tackle in the 1st round. Unless they think Flemming can start. Vollmer could always switch sides.

JR4 · Feb 14, 2015

Oswlek said:
......

Your math is off. The $12mm assumption for Revis includes his $5mm dead hit, and its also built into the theoretical $16mm below cap figure. Your example double counts the dead hit so it should be $9mm remaining, not $4mm.

That is not how I read what mg said which was

" I believe that we are currently $16M "UNDER" the cap, with Revis unsigned."

So let's slowly do the math
Current Cap = -4M
(that is minus 4 million , PATS are 4 million over cap which includes Revis 20M plus his 5M deferred CAP which can not be eliminated)

So mg says "with Revis unsigned"
(and I take that to mean - don't count his current 20M cap hit - his deferred Cap hit is not part of this)
"we are currently $16M "UNDER" the cap"
I believe he gets that number by adding back the Revis 20M to the current cap which is
-4M + 20M = 16M to get the "Under CAP" figure ( check my math )

Then mg says

"..... We can choose to pay Revis $16M a year, with an average annual cap effect of $12M-16M...."
So I took mg to mean we can expect to see Revis cap hit at 12M to 16 M if he does sign.
I took the 12M, the lower cap hit so
if we take 16M OVER CAP as mg sees it then subtract 12M that leaves 4M NOT 9M as you said.
There is no double counting here

Oswlek said:
I don't expect Connolly back and there is no reason to assume $8mm for Devin in year one of the deal.
............

Ok not 8M then how about 1M and push 7 more million plus to the future. Just add 15M or so for
McCourty to Revis 17M in 2016. Can you really see BB being OK with 2 of his DB players taking up
1/5th of his CAP space in 2016??

Look, there are a lot of ways to get Revis and McCourty signed this year. Many have been shown.
But at what cost to PATS franchise in the future? Go down this road and PATS will not be the
PATS we have had for the last 14 years.

Oswlek · Feb 14, 2015

Froob said:
Might not be the end of the world to let Solder go if he's commanding top money. He's so inconsistent. And when he's bad, he's BAD. Perhaps they could take a tackle in the 1st round. Unless they think Flemming can start. Vollmer could always switch sides.

He really wasn't inconsistent until this year. Heading into 2014, he was not in anyone's top 5, but reasonably close and a bargain at $7mm a year. All things considered, I still view him the same and expect the team to bring him back one way or another.

Oswlek · Feb 14, 2015

JR4 said:
There is no double counting here

Yes, there is.

Start from a position of $4mm over the cap including the bonus. Subtract only the $20mm that will be gone if Revis is released. The dead money is still accounted for, leaving NE at a position of $16mm under the cap.

Your error is when you add the entire $12mm 2015 cap hit back on. You can't do this because the $5mm dead money is part of the projected $12mm. You end up accounting for the $5mm in both instances, hence it is double counted.

Oswlek · Feb 14, 2015

JR4 said:
Go down this road and PATS will not be the
PATS we have had for the last 14 years.

What are you talking about? NE pushed money off with lots of players, most of them, in fact. As Mg said once already, your issue has nothing at all to do with deferral, it is that you don't think Revis (or any cornerback, apparently) is worth $14-$15mm a year.

Since that's your real position, just say it like that. You might get disagreement, but not the bickering your comments get now.

Deus Irae · Feb 14, 2015

JR4 said:
Look, there are a lot of ways to get Revis and McCourty signed this year. Many have been shown.
But at what cost to PATS franchise in the future? Go down this road and PATS will not be the
PATS we have had for the last 14 years.

????

Wilfork and his cap numbers are gone in the next 1-3 years
Same with Mayo
Same with Browner

Without even getting to Brady and Revis, or taking the increasing cap into question, that's money coming loose to pay for the likes of Hightower and Jones. In addition, the $4 million in dead space from the Mankins trade will be off the books.

Unless Brady decides he wants a big raise, it's pretty much business as usual at Gillette, at least until Brady's gone.

JR4 · Feb 14, 2015

Oswlek said:
Yes, there is.

Start from a position of $4mm over the cap including the bonus. Subtract only the $20mm that will be gone if Revis is released. The dead money is still accounted for, leaving NE at a position of $16mm under the cap.

Your error is when you add the entire $12mm 2015 cap hit back on. You can't do this because the $5mm dead money is part of the projected $12mm. You end up accounting for the $5mm in both instances, hence it is double counted.

So what you are saying is Revis new deal the which mg says will be an Average effective cap hit of
12 Million includes 5M in dead money which is 5M of mg's 16M overcap money.
So if Revis deal is for 3 years for a total of 3 x 12M ave = 36M then 5M of that money Revis already got.
Which mean he gets 31M new money for 3 years or 10.3M per year average. OK that makes sense.
Think Revis will buy that? I doubt he'd take an average of 12M per year in new money.

mgteich · Feb 14, 2015

Deus Irae said:
The Patriots are not 16 million under the cap with Revis unsigned.

I get that it's not really an actual belief you're holding, and that it is really just the way you're looking at things, but the difference between it actually being true, and it being just the way you're looking at it, is significant, because of its potential impact on team re-signings and early free agency.

If we have any chance of paying the $12M bonus, then what you say is true.

JR4 · Feb 14, 2015

Deus Irae said:
????

Wilfork and his cap numbers are gone in the next 1-3 years
Same with Mayo
Same with Browner

Without even getting to Brady and Revis, or taking the increasing cap into question, that's money coming loose to pay for the likes of Hightower and Jones. In addition, the $4 million in dead space from the Mankins trade will be off the books.

Unless Brady decides he wants a big raise, it's pretty much business as usual at Gillette, at least until Brady's gone.

Sure there will be attrition. But those key players need to be replaced by rookies or quality Vets.
The way it is now you may not have Wilfork's cap to offset anything next year as his CAP space may be
needed this year. Then for those leaving in the future you have starters looking for their first big pay day.
Pushing LOTS of CAP into the future is not a good practice.

patsbrasilpatriotas · Feb 14, 2015

Froob said:
Might not be the end of the world to let Solder go if he's commanding top money. He's so inconsistent. And when he's bad, he's BAD. Perhaps they could take a tackle in the 1st round. Unless they think Flemming can start. Vollmer could always switch sides.

You mean Cannon right?

Deus Irae · Feb 14, 2015

JR4 said:
Sure there will be attrition. But those key players need to be replaced by rookies or quality Vets.

Yes, they'll be replaced by younger, cheaper players. That's the point. It will lead to cap savings.

JR4 said:
The way it is now you may not have Wilfork's cap to offset anything next year as his CAP space may be needed this year. Then for those leaving in the future you have starters looking for their first big pay day.
Pushing LOTS of CAP into the future is not a good practice.

Wilfork's space is only "needed" this year if Revis is kept at the $25m hit. And pushing LOTS of CAP into the future is fine. What's not fine is pushing big skill guarantees into the future for a bunch of players, and the Patriots haven't been doing that, outside of Brady (and even his guarantees have now been removed).

mgteich · Feb 14, 2015

Deus Irae said:
I don't expect Mayo to get cut. Instead, I think he'll get restructured, for a savings of between $3m and $5m. They'll essentially be buying him one more year with the team that way, while still freeing up cap room.

I could see another restructure, and possibly a pay cut, for Wilfork, although the incentives could pose some problems.

Amendola's a great candidate for a pay cut/restructure, IMO.

Solder is the most interesting to me. He's a prime candidate for an extension, but he's not worth top LT money and his concussions are an issue. I could see him pricing himself off the team, which could lead to a Cannon/Vollmer starting duo, and a nervous fan base, after this upcoming season. On the other hand, I could also see him getting a mid-range extension with a lowered 2015 cap hit.

Just my $.02

I agree with this analysis.

mgteich · Feb 14, 2015

We seem to disagree on two basic issues.

ISSUE ONE
How much can we afford to push into the future. As I said, we have $37M pushed into 2015, and much less into 2016 at the moment. This issue is about long-term cap planning. Every year, we'e told that this contender or that will be in cap hell because of their actions. It almost never happens. The team will push lots of money into 2016 and 2017. This is standard operating procedure. And, yes, the team will pay more attention to 2016 than to other years. For me, it is likely that the new contracts for Hightower and Jones might TOTAL $10M is first year cap costs ($12M at the outside). This is high, but manageable. This are the major contracts to deal with in 2016.

ISSUE TWO
How much are the players worth. This is the real issue. It is not whether we can afford Wilfork or Mayo or Amendola or Browner or Solder or Revis or McCourty or Gostkowski. We can afford almost all of them if we really must, and deal can be reached at agreed upon values.

And value must include what hole will be left if a player leaves and the cost of replacement.

Let's use Wilfork as an example. His cost is $8.5M of new money. We might pay Branch $2.5M at most in 2015 cap money. Without Wilfork the DT's are Branch, Siliga, Jones, Easley and a high draft choice. Is the addition of Wilfork worth $6M? or $4M? or what? Alternatively, a better free agents could be signed at a first year cost of 4.5M. Would Wilfork be worth $4M more than that set of DT's.

We could go through this analysis with each decision to be made. There are occasional complications like the fact that Mayo has $4.5M of his slaty guaranteed against injury. In any case, decisions about Mayo can wait.

BEFORE MARCH 10th, decisions will need to be made about the free agents and those players who will get bonuses or contract guaranteed. Some decisions are easy, although extensions are possible. Vollmer, Gronkowski, Browner, and Ninkovich will get their money.

Decisions about Solder, Wilfork and Revis are much less certain. These are truly the big three. We have $16M with Solder at $7.45M, Wilfork at $8.5M and Revis at zero. We might say that we have $32M without any of the three or the nine free agents. That is the default before decisions are made on the 12 (9 free agents plus the key 3 bonuses).

SO WE HAVE $32M. WHO WOULD YOU PAY? AND HOW MUCH WOULD YOU PAY?
Revis
Wilfork
Solder
McCourty
Casillas
Branch
Ayers
White
Gostkowski
Vereen
Ridley
Connolly

Yes, I understand that restructures or cuts could be made with regard to other players. Many are possible and some will be needed for later costs.

Deus Irae · Feb 14, 2015

mgteich said:
SO WE HAVE $32M. WHO WOULD YOU PAY? AND HOW MUCH WOULD YOU PAY?
Revis
Wilfork
Solder
McCourty
Casillas
Branch
Ayers
White
Gostkowski
Vereen
Ridley
Connolly

Yes, I understand that restructures or cuts could be made with regard to other players. Many are possible and some will be needed for later costs.

Questions arise in my head, regarding the low end players:

Do you really pay more than, say, $1.5m for Ayers?
Are you giving Ridley anything more than that same $1m-$1.5m?
If you're bringing back White, aren't you doing it only for the minimum?
Can you get Connolly with, say, $2m plus incentives?
Are you going to offer Branch much more than the minimum?

I don't see any of those players as "must have", with the exception of Connolly. To me, if they want the money, they should be told to go elsewhere to get it. There's nothing wrong with that, on the part of either side.

mgteich · Feb 14, 2015

Deus Irae said:
Questions arise in my head, regarding the low end players:

Do you really pay more than, say, $1.5m for Ayers?
Are you giving Ridley anything more than that same $1m-$1.5m?
If you're bringing back White, aren't you doing it only for the minimum?
Can you get Connolly with, say, $2m plus incentives?
Are you going to offer Branch much more than the minimum?

I don't see any of those players as "must have", with the exception of Connolly. To me, if they want the money, they should be told to go elsewhere to get it. There's nothing wrong with that, on the part of either side.

Within rounding, I agree with your analysis. None of the following are worth more than $800k-$1.5M: White, Casillas, Ridley. I might be willing to pay $500K more for Branch and/or Ayers, but I don't expect this to happen unless Wilfork is gone. $2M plus incentives is right for Connolly.

I agree that only the big three free agents are worth more than $2M: McCourty, Vereen and Gostkowksi, and i'm not sure that Belichick is willing to pay more than $2M for Vereen. I think so, but I suspect that he does not. It probably doesn't matter since someone else will likely offer Vereen $3.5M.

50-yard-line · Feb 14, 2015

mgteich said:
We seem to disagree on two basic issues.

ISSUE ONE
How much can we afford to push into the future. As I said, we have $37M pushed into 2015, and much less into 2016 at the moment. This issue is about long-term cap planning. Every year, we'e told that this contender or that will be in cap hell because of their actions. It almost never happens. The team will push lots of money into 2016 and 2017. This is standard operating procedure. And, yes, the team will pay more attention to 2016 than to other years. For me, it is likely that the new contracts for Hightower and Jones might TOTAL $10M is first year cap costs ($12M at the outside). This is high, but manageable. This are the major contracts to deal with in 2016.

ISSUE TWO
How much are the players worth. This is the real issue. It is not whether we can afford Wilfork or Mayo or Amendola or Browner or Solder or Revis or McCourty or Gostkowski. We can afford almost all of them if we really must, and deal can be reached at agreed upon values.

And value must include what hole will be left if a player leaves and the cost of replacement.

Let's use Wilfork as an example. His cost is $8.5M of new money. We might pay Branch $2.5M at most in 2015 cap money. Without Wilfork the DT's are Branch, Siliga, Jones, Easley and a high draft choice. Is the addition of Wilfork worth $6M? or $4M? or what? Alternatively, a better free agents could be signed at a first year cost of 4.5M. Would Wilfork be worth $4M more than that set of DT's.

We could go through this analysis with each decision to be made. There are occasional complications like the fact that Mayo has $4.5M of his slaty guaranteed against injury. In any case, decisions about Mayo can wait.

BEFORE MARCH 10th, decisions will need to be made about the free agents and those players who will get bonuses or contract guaranteed. Some decisions are easy, although extensions are possible. Vollmer, Gronkowski, Browner, and Ninkovich will get their money.

Decisions about Solder, Wilfork and Revis are much less certain. These are truly the big three. We have $16M with Solder at $7.45M, Wilfork at $8.5M and Revis at zero. We might say that we have $32M without any of the three or the nine free agents. That is the default before decisions are made on the 12 (9 free agents plus the key 3 bonuses).

SO WE HAVE $32M. WHO WOULD YOU PAY? AND HOW MUCH WOULD YOU PAY?
Revis
Wilfork
Solder
McCourty
Casillas
Branch
Ayers
White
Gostkowski
Vereen
Ridley
Connolly

Yes, I understand that restructures or cuts could be made with regard to other players. Many are possible and some will be needed for later costs.

So I'm still trying to figure out why you disagreed with my post. You're saying the same thing I did.

I wasn't saying they SHOULD cut Browner or Wilfork or Solder; I was merely pointing out where the big cap savings were at.

I know we're going to hear "cut Amendola" for example, but the savings isn't much at all unless he's June 1 and we push dead money into 2016. Browner, on the other hand, has no guaranteed money. Seems like a perfect guy to restructure. Put some guarantees, extend a year and push him out.

I think so much of this is dependent upon Revis.

mgteich · Feb 14, 2015

50-yard-line said:
I wasn't saying they SHOULD cut Browner or Wilfork or Solder; I was merely pointing out where the big cap savings were at.

I disagree with any implication that we could save money by cutting Browner or that it is in any way an option to cut Browner. My personal view is that some of the bonuses should not be questioned, those to Vollmer, Ninkovich and Browner. The cuts to any of these players would seriously hurt the team and would not save much once they are replaced. If anything, Browner should be extended to save a bit of cap room, and to commit a fine player to more years as a patriot.

IMHO, we have plenty to discuss in dealing with decisions on the twelve.

kennyb · Feb 14, 2015

Mayo has made a tremendous amount of money going back to his rookie contract. He should be willing to cut way way back. He may force a cut if he doesn't.

Wilfork gets huge money is he really worth about 2.5x Terrance knighton? Or 4x branch. Hard to cut as he's a face of the franchise. Something tells me he won't be open to a redo of last year's contract. He too should be willing to go for a market rate of about 4m.

Amendola has a relatively high salary, more than edelman's. He seems like a good egg, maybe move half to incentives nltbe.

Revis should be willing to sign a 12-13 per year aav. With first year of say 5m cap hit. That plus the other 5m would be 10m cap hit next year down from 25m.

So that 20m or so would give them room to sign just about everyone they wanted to.

then they'd have to worry that there's no space for the rookies.

I'm also thinking connoly may retire.

I know they were high on white in training camp, maybe he makes vereen expendable.

mgteich · Feb 14, 2015

50-yard-line said:
I think so much of this is dependent upon Revis.

I disagree. The first year cost of a top corner is about $8M, whether it's Revis or someone else.

I have the first year contract for Revis at a cap hit of $8M, not matter how high the AAV. The contract could be a 3, 4 or 5 year contract. So, for me $8M is a placeholder for our #1 CB. If Revis cannot be signed, that the money will be spent for someone else, perhaps with a bit left over. However, I don't think that the Revis negotiations need materially affect the negotiations with anyone else.

The other 11 players all have their price tags, the cost of adding them to the 2015 team. Any or all of the 12 could be justified and paid for. All (well perhaps 9) could theoretically be signed to extensions, even before considering additional transactions.

Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

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