Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

Oswlek said:

Because the Patriots don't have the wiggle room to invest $25mm in cap space in Revis without collateral damage. Sometimes you can just "move numbers around" and sometimes it takes cutting Mayo, Wilfork and Solder. Picking up the option is the latter.

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Leaving aside all starry-eyed notions of players we like playing for huge discounts, there is also the option of applying the long multi-year deal, cap-friendly in any given year, unless he goes down. In fact given that the "short form" of this deal is undoable, it really comes down to mid-term or long-term or bust.

Love watching this conversations, hate weighing in, especially here.

It's really nice not reading the words "Patriots' suspect secondary" all season. On the other hand, other players. I lean to the "pay Revis side," because Revis opens up the rest of the defense for a brilliant defensive football mind. But I'll throw in a heavy dose of "the Pats know what they're doing."

This is why I have no patience right now for the "****-hot free agent receivers" discussions. Of course, I might have more patience for them on March 11.

Nunchucks said:

I agree that it is worth keeping Revis with the huge cap hit if that is what it takes....the older he gets the less his value, keep him here another year and he may become affordable.

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He's already got a great one-year deal. It's exhorbitant from the Pats' point of view. Are you saying just pay him the terms of the present deal, and THEN sign him to a cheaper long-term deal...?

JR4 said:

When PATs have made a contract I think they have projected the implications of the contract long term.
They have NOT got themselves into CAP trouble like other teams because they stick to their these
principles even if they have to let players go. Redoing contracts to free up CAP space has been done but
still with an eye to the future.

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And yet, Denver has $20 million to spend and the Pats are 4 million over. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that.

supafly said:

Possibly the bigger obstacle would be the fact that Revis will want stability in his later years, and may want a longer multi year deal than the Pats are willing to take a chance on.

The team may feel fine giving him a nice payday through the next 3 years, whereas Revis may want something in the 5 year range--taking him to the age of 35. Hopefully, they are able to meet in the middle.

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More years is more years to spread 2015 concepts of cap money across. The cap in 2019 figures to be much higher. I am stating the obvious. I'm just saying the main thing in a long-term deal you think about is the risk the team takes on by guaranteeing what hasn't been earned yet. The other side of that equation is that there's no interest charge on the salary cap credit card. It's just that you can only use it so often before you're in cap jail.

Miguel this is an interesting question - "Cap inflation" seemed like it was huge in the 2000s, but since the 2010 uncapped year, it seems like it wasn't huge at first, but has stepped up recently. I am only going by memory. I know I remember that talk of recession was still the League's rationale in keeping caps down in the 2011 CBA. Are there "out years" in the present CBA that we're now entering with greater cap inflation?

PatsFanInVa said:

He's already got a great one-year deal. It's exhorbitant from the Pats' point of view. Are you saying just pay him the terms of the present deal, and THEN sign him to a cheaper long-term deal...?

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If that is what it takes.

50-yard-line said:

And yet, Denver has $20 million to spend and the Pats are 4 million over. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that.

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That's over this year. Denver might be under cap, but they have a lot of stars coming off rookie contracts this year, and won't be better in 2015 than they were in 2014. Julius Thomas is basically gone, and after they finish paying who they have to pay, they won't be going on any FA shopping sprees.

PATS16N0 said:

That's over this year. Denver might be under cap, but they have a lot of stars coming off rookie contracts this year, and won't be better in 2015 than they were in 2014. Julius Thomas is basically gone, and after they finish paying who they have to pay, they won't be going on any FA shopping sprees.

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Meh, Thomas, Thomas, Knighton...that's about it. They won't bring Welker back.

Everyone else is replaceable. J Thomas isn't all that - they've got a decent back-up and Jacob Tamme's a cheap re-sign. Knighton's good, but they've got the money to keep things intact. They might force a restructure with Peyton, too, and I think he'd do it, because he doesn't want to go out like that.

Denver is in a better cap position than New England, even if New England can save a few million on a Revis re-do.

50-yard-line said:

Meh, Thomas, Thomas, Knighton...that's about it. They won't bring Welker back.

Everyone else is replaceable. J Thomas isn't all that - they've got a decent back-up and Jacob Tamme's a cheap re-sign. Knighton's good, but they've got the money to keep things intact. They might force a restructure with Peyton, too, and I think he'd do it, because he doesn't want to go out like that.

Denver is in a better cap position than New England, even if New England can save a few million on a Revis re-do.

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Yeah, and New England has a much better team, coach and quarterback than Denver, so it doesn't really matter.

50-yard-line said:

And yet, Denver has $20 million to spend and the Pats are 4 million over. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that.

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Yes, the principles of poster cap analysis say that other contenders are in cap hell. We've been saying that since Ian started the board.

I agree that it would be good for us all of us to understand that

1) Other contenders know how to manage the cap.

2) We are over the cap because of the "fake" bonus attached to the Revis contract. Perhaps, we should think of the bonus as being $30M. Then the situation would be easier to understand. We don't "really" have Revis signed for 2015 for $20M. Only a very few folks think this could ever happen.

3) We are "over" the cap because four players have already been extended (Slater, Bolden, Chung and Cannon). We are also over because we include the $12 option as being paid.

IMHO, the Revis contract is what it was always shown to be, a one year contract for $12M, with $5M deferred into 2015 for cap purposes. There was also a no-franchise clause in the guise of a $12M bonus.

SOME THOUGHTS
Revis is unsigned. The option will NOT be taken. Either Revis will be signed to a contract or he won't. We can analyze the 2015 cap cost of the new contract . My guess is that it will be anywhere between $8M and $12M.

For me, the problem is an analytic one. I don't include the Revis bonus money in any projections. It is unlikely to be paid. The other bonuses are much more likely to paid or contracts restructured, so they should be included. BTW, I'm fine with an analysis that consider all the other bonuses unpaid, but they really are different. They are part of a multi-year contract structure and involve dead money this year and in the future. The Revis situation is analytically much simpler.

MY BOTTOM LINE
So, I believe that we are currently $16M "UNDER" the cap, with Revis unsigned. There are many opportunities to free up lots more cap room. And, of course, we have 10 players who we might sign (nine free agents plus Revis).

We can choose to take a $20M cap hit, which would paid on April 1 if the decision is made to pay the Revis bonus. We can choose to pay Revis $16M a year, with an average annual cap effect of $12M-16M. Or Belichick can choose to pass.

mgteich said:

MY BOTTOM LINE
So, I believe that we are currently $16M "UNDER" the cap, with Revis unsigned.

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The Patriots are not 16 million under the cap with Revis unsigned.

I get that it's not really an actual belief you're holding, and that it is really just the way you're looking at things, but the difference between it actually being true, and it being just the way you're looking at it, is significant, because of its potential impact on team re-signings and early free agency.

mgteich said:

......
MY BOTTOM LINE
So, I believe that we are currently $16M "UNDER" the cap, with Revis unsigned. There are many opportunities to free up lots more cap room. And, of course, we have 10 players who we might sign (nine free agents plus Revis).

We can choose to take a $20M cap hit, which would paid on April 1 if the decision is made to pay the Revis bonus. We can choose to pay Revis $16M a year, with an average annual cap effect of $12M-16M. Or Belichick can choose to pass.

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mg this a real nice way to look at and I agree with your bottom line.

So if PATS sign Revis and the CAP hit is on the low side say 12M then that leaves PATS
at 4M under CAP. That 4M wiped out with Draft Picks and the need to have some CAP left
for unexpected events during the season.

So you have no CAP space left yet you should want to sign
McCourty - 8M
Ghoskowski - 3M
Connolly - 2M
That's 13M right there
If PATS go with Revis I'm going to be interested to see if they can somehow
convince McCourty to stay because they will not be able to out bid
several hungry teams that want him.

Let me ask you, if could only sign one of Revis or McCourty, who would you sign?

Nunchucks said:

If that is what it takes.

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I think I agree with MGT above, and NE management (Kraft? BB?) in saying that the 2015 number is a "placeholder" for Revis. But it's a "placeholder" that gives Revis and the Pats both "walk away" power, which Revis could do in the form of saying "present deal, take it or leave it." That would mean he hits the open market.

This league is about tough choices. If the Pats are to keep Revis, it's got to be a sweet deal, and it's likely got to be a long deal. It will also likely involve the "unthinkable" as regards one or more players the Pats would like to keep (although I know that various contract scenarios can plot out the cap hits into the future.)

As Steven Wright said, "you can't have everything. Where would you put it?"

Maybe we can have everything, and the answer is, "in future years." I can't stop looking at the thread on Revis, and I know that I know different flavors of nothing until March, no matter how much I read.

That's taking nothing away from Miguel or other capologists here who are huge assets to the board. It's just the nature of the future. Hell I'm getting either spiritual or mellow in old age... during the season I take the same attitude toward games. You can see the tendencies you can see the next team's tendencies, you can see the story lines developing, then the game can go completely differently from how you think it will, both in terms of result and how you got there.

So anyhoo... here's hoping other teams really are terrible at managing the cap, that everybody is willing to take a discount to play for NE, that the Pats always are right... etc. They do a very good job, as do a few other teams. I dare say our personnel guys are the best in the game, and as backup, I'll cite the 4 SB championships and 6 AFC championships and ownership of the AFCE since 2001.

That just makes me wonder what the decision will be - stay or go - arrived at b/w Revis' agent and the Pats brass.

Sorry I know I'm adding nothing here.

the question is does Revis want to play here. If he wants to play here he'll make a deal. If it gets to the point that he forces the pats to either cut him or pay the money then can't we trade him? I didn't read all the comments so maybe this has been addressed. If he wants to defend his title and make a good 3-4 year championship run then he will be willing to work a contract where he is respected and that allows the team to stay strong in other positions

Deus Irae said:

The Patriots are not 16 million under the cap with Revis unsigned.

I get that it's not really an actual belief you're holding, and that it is really just the way you're looking at things, but the difference between it actually being true, and it being just the way you're looking at it, is significant, because of its potential impact on team re-signings and early free agency.

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If they don't pick up Revis's option year, they're 16 million under (based on speculation of what the cap number will be, obviously - again, when do they actually put a number on it?).

Can save another $7 by cutting Wilfork, another $7 for cutting Solder, another 4.8 for Browner, only 1.5 for Amendola...we save under 800k by cutting Mayo, according to Miguel.

The Pats have a lot of work to do, and I expect we're going to be missing some familiar names come 2015.

50-yard-line said:

If they don't pick up Revis's option year, they're 16 million under (based on speculation of what the cap number will be, obviously - again, when do they actually put a number on it?).

Can save another $7 by cutting Wilfork, another $7 for cutting Solder, another 4.8 for Browner, only 1.5 for Amendola...we save under 800k by cutting Mayo, according to Miguel.

The Pats have a lot of work to do, and I expect we're going to be missing some familiar names come 2015.

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I don't expect Mayo to get cut. Instead, I think he'll get restructured, for a savings of between $3m and $5m. They'll essentially be buying him one more year with the team that way, while still freeing up cap room.

I could see another restructure, and possibly a pay cut, for Wilfork, although the incentives could pose some problems.

Amendola's a great candidate for a pay cut/restructure, IMO.

Solder is the most interesting to me. He's a prime candidate for an extension, but he's not worth top LT money and his concussions are an issue. I could see him pricing himself off the team, which could lead to a Cannon/Vollmer starting duo, and a nervous fan base, after this upcoming season. On the other hand, I could also see him getting a mid-range extension with a lowered 2015 cap hit.


Just my $.02

50-yard-line said:

If they don't pick up Revis's option year, they're 16 million under (based on speculation of what the cap number will be, obviously - again, when do they actually put a number on it?).

Can save another $7 by cutting Wilfork, another $7 for cutting Solder, another 4.8 for Browner, only 1.5 for Amendola...we save under 800k by cutting Mayo, according to Miguel.

The Pats have a lot of work to do, and I expect we're going to be missing some familiar names come 2015.

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They aren't cutting Solder or Browner. No way, no how.

JR4 said:

So if PATS sign Revis and the CAP hit is on the low side say 12M

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Your math is off. The $12mm assumption for Revis includes his $5mm dead hit, and its also built into the theoretical $16mm below cap figure. Your example double counts the dead hit so it should be $9mm remaining, not $4mm.

JR4 said:

So you have no CAP space left yet you should want to sign
McCourty - 8M
Ghoskowski - 3M
Connolly - 2M
That's 13M right there

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I don't expect Connolly back and there is no reason to assume $8mm for Devin in year one of the deal.

The other piece you keep overlooking is that the cap figures bandied about are top 51, so any signing - rookies, for instance - would either knock someone else off or not be counted at all.

The most encouraging sign is the complete radio silence on the negotiations. The longer we go without "sources close to the negotiations" squawking to the media, the better. To me, that suggests that Revis and the Pats are working in good faith to get a deal done.

Deus Irae said:

I don't expect Mayo to get cut. Instead, I think he'll get restructured, for a savings of between $3m and $5m. They'll essentially be buying him one more year with the team that way, while still freeing up cap room.

I could see another restructure, and possibly a pay cut, for Wilfork, although the incentives could pose some problems.

Amendola's a great candidate for a pay cut/restructure, IMO.

Solder is the most interesting to me. He's a prime candidate for an extension, but he's not worth top LT money and his concussions are an issue. I could see him pricing himself off the team, which could lead to a Cannon/Vollmer starting duo, and a nervous fan base, after this upcoming season. On the other hand, I could also see him getting a mid-range extension with a lowered 2015 cap hit.


Just my $.02

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My .02 and yours are pretty much aligned here.

Although I hear DeGug loves him some Solder.

Oswlek said:

They aren't cutting Solder or Browner. No way, no how.

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Look at the numbers. Browner is 4.8 against the cap this year and next, with $0 guaranteed. That means cutting him would free up almost $10 over the next two years. Compare that to Mayo, who, if cut, saves us under 800k against the cap.

The Pats have leverage over Browner (Wilfork and Solder, too, for that matter), but very little over Amendola, Arrington or Mayo.

So yeah, you'd rather keep the first three than the last three, but you could cut all three of the last three(1.6 for Amendola + 865 for Arrington + 722 for Mayo) and save less than Cutting Browner alone, and barely half of cutting either Solder or Wilfork. Sure you could do the post-June 1 deal for these guys to save more this year, but you'd be pushing a lot of dead money into 2016.

Oswlek said:

They aren't cutting Solder or Browner. No way, no how.



Your math is off. The $12mm assumption for Revis includes his $5mm dead hit, and its also built into the theoretical $16mm below cap figure. Your example double counts the dead hit so it should be $9mm remaining, not $4mm.



I don't expect Connolly back and there is no reason to assume $8mm for Devin in year one of the deal.

The other piece you keep overlooking is that the cap figures bandied about are top 51, so any signing - rookies, for instance - would either knock someone else off or not be counted at all.

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Why in the world would you not expect to see Connolly back? To me that's a no brainier.....team captain, solid starter, "glue" of the O line -- at 2MM (as you say) to me that's a no brainer.

As for Darrelle - I believe he's staying right here for a long time to come, along with DMC and Gost (worst case for Gost is franchise).