Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

mgteich · Feb 12, 2015

kennyb said:
4 years 48m, 12m aav

sb 12m
Salaries 1,8,10,17

Cap hits including 5m from last year of 9, 11, 13, 20. So save 16m in cap space first year. He gets cut after 3 years it's about 10m per even if aav is 12m.

This is basically a 3/$31M contract with a fake 4th year that helps no one. This is not close to anything Revis will, or should, sign. There isn't even any protection for Revis for the 3rd year at $10M. As an agent, I would ring this deal to Revis only because I was legally required to do so. In any case, this isn't close to a deal that Revis would sign.

doesntmatter1 · Feb 12, 2015

I think we just need to except that he is most likely gone and just thank him for his contributions towards our super bowl.

Revis is great but we would probably be fine if we can just find an above average corner that is durable. Honestly, Talib was good enough for us to make the super bowl if he didn't screw us over with his hip repeatedly. I'm not even ruling Butler out as someone to consider.

kennyb · Feb 12, 2015

Lots of contracts have high later year salaries that "help no one".

patfanken · Feb 13, 2015

RIpats88 said:
Some of you are going to be pretty upset when that is what the patriots pay revis.

What do you expect them to pay? 5million a year for an elite cb who changes the dynamic of the defense?

Now you are being ridiculous. I don't think anyone here has ever mentioned a number less than $12MM/yr, and that has always been the starting point. Sherman and Peterson both are at $14. That's currently the top of the market. So basically the range of the negotiations is $12-14MM to meet Revis' demand to be among the top paid CB's in the league. THAT is too small a gap for 2 reasonable parties not to get a deal done. The only thing that could stop it is the outlier who does something like put a LT $16+MM deal on the table, and that my friends would be very stupid for a team to do.

supafly · Feb 13, 2015

RIpats88 said:
15million is the going rate for a corner....and he is the best there is.

Since when is "15 million dollars the going rate for a corner?"The franchise tag is what? 12-13 million at best, and that's the average of the top 5 salaries at the position.

Hell, the best few cornerbacks in the game are making between 13-14 million a year, and that only totals about 3-4 people in the entire NFL. To take it one step further, those few players were recently signed to brand new deals, and are all in their mid-20s.

I think 13-14 million dollars per year AAV would be fine. Of course the deal breaker will likely be the way the contract is structured as well as the guaranteed money.

Joker · Feb 13, 2015

"you gotta be kiddin'...500? the going rate on a boat is a 1000 mayn..."

LightSkinSmurf · Feb 13, 2015

patsfanincleveland said:
It's all on Revis. He has to decide if the chance comes.....is $3-5 million more worth going to someone like the Raiders. Do you want your mentor Ty Law pointing out he has three rings......you got one.?

People tend to forget that we are a healthy Gronk from probably fourpeating. Jets and Bucs well not so much.

Revis has his ring. Does he want more? I'm sure he does.... But over money? I highly, highly doubt it. Id be shocked if he took less money to stay here. His track record says he won't. If you want revis you gotta pay to keep him. None of this "take less for a chance at another ring" nonsense.

JR4 · Feb 13, 2015

mgteich said:
I've shown a list. Miguel has been giving details for months.

Part of the issue is that your cost numbers are overstated. Connolly's cap hit is likely to be $2M. We won't sign everyone; Vereen is unlikely. As an ERFA, Siliga is not $3M; his cost is under $750K. McCourty's first year cap hit will be closer to $5M or perhaps $6M. The savings from Revis is likely to be $10M or more, even with an AAV of $14-16M.

OK I'll modify using your suggestions.

5M (estimated over cap right now)
6M to sign McCourty
3M Ghostkowski
2M Connolly
(no Vereen? I doubt it - but won't count him 3M Vereen)
1M Siliga (and NO Branch)
3M draft guys
2M unexpected needs during year
What about Malcom Buttler? How much to resign him?

With adjustments that's about 22M. ( and there are other PATS FA that should be extended )
Say Revis' new contract saves 10M save(I doubt this also) .... still need to come up with 12M
WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?????
Who are you going to Cut? Vince? How many will need to restructure? Will they restructure?
If you cut Vince and go with Siliga instead of Branch what will that do to PATs run D?
What about Buttler will you let him go?
Also this would mean PATS would NOT participate in any significant way in FA market because
they have no Cap space left even if you could find a way to find the 12M deficit noted above.

Signing Revis would be a very big mistake. IMO.

supafly · Feb 13, 2015

JR4 said:
What about Malcom Buttler? How much to resign him?

Why would the team need to deal with Malcolm Butler, who has played ONE year in the NFL?

He wouldn't be an unrestricted free agent until 2018.

JR4 said:
Signing Revis would be a very big mistake. IMO.

Signing Revis is obviously the team's top priority at the moment, as well it should be! I thought we all agreed on that.

ZoisKing · Feb 13, 2015

doesntmatter1 said:
I think we just need to except that he is most likely gone and just thank him for his contributions towards our super bowl.

Revis is great but we would probably be fine if we can just find an above average corner that is durable. Honestly, Talib was good enough for us to make the super bowl if he didn't screw us over with his hip repeatedly. I'm not even ruling Butler out as someone to consider.

I don't agree with that at all. Revis' mere presence makes the entire secondary better. He's is as experienced and fundamentally sound a player as you could hope for. Losing such a dynamic piece such as him would hurt big time. He changed a great weakness of ours into a strength. With him we are considered to be a great secondary, without him we're not even in the conversation.

As far as his contract is concerned, I feel that he will make a financial sacrifice of some sort to extend this potential championship run of ours.

JarOfMayo51 · Feb 13, 2015

patfanken said:
Ice, I think you are way over thinking it here. All Revis is looking for is something that puts him AMONG the top paid CB's in the league (Peterson, Sherman, etc). That puts him in the range of 13-14/yr MAXIMUM, because based on what I've read, that is what Peterson and Sherman have gotten.

I seriously question another team coming in and offering him $16+MM and more than 3 real years (anyone can offer a couple of fake years at the end of 3 year contract including us) In the end, he still is going to be 32 when the 3 years are up. He still is going to be an averaged sized guy who doesn't have exceptional physical skills other than his extraordinary ability to anticipate.

In the end, if you offer him a deal that puts him on a par with Peterson and Sherman, and he still doesn't take it, then F'em. Every negative thing anyone has said about him was true. Remember the Pats have NEVER failed to pay a guy who was in the top 3 of his position in his prime.....ever. I don't see why that wouldn't be the case with Revis. But if Revis wants that much more, like $16MM/yr, I can see them letting him go.

Besides , if you were Revis, do you think a "mere" $2MM/yr would pull out of a good situation with the Pats, to go to the Jets? None of the better teams in the league are going to commit that kind of money to $16MM/yr long term to one player (non-QB) It's too big of a single cap hit. Listen its a big risk for the Pats at $14/yr, but one worth taking given our unique situation. I think everyone would recognize that this is a special situaaton

Guys who actually have some intelligence understand that just because some **** team offers you 2 million more, that doesn't necessarily mean you'll make more in the end.

Winning Super Bowls and being in the national stage all the time and known as a winner increases your marketability and publicity.

David Givens probably still stays up at night agonizing over his decision to sign with the titans for a little more cash.

On the Pats, he was competing in super bowls and was in commercials with Brady.. then he signs with the Titans for a few more dollars and disappears into the ether.. he was forgotten, his stats dropped significantly and he was out of the league a few years later. What a horrible decision he made.. deion branch did the same thing, literally left over like 2 or 3 million dollars of a 40 million dollar deal so he could go off to Seattle and be completely forgotten, lost in a sea of mediocrity.. from super bowl mvps to sub-1000 yard seasons. . What a horrible, horrible mistake that will probly haunt these guys to the grave

JackBauer · Feb 13, 2015

JR4 said:
Signing Revis would be a very big mistake. IMO.

Congratulations. You're probably the only Patriots fan on the planet who thinks that.

JR4 · Feb 13, 2015

supafly said:
Why would the team need to deal with Malcolm Butler, who has played ONE year in the NFL?

He wouldn't be an unrestricted free agent until 2018.
Sorry didn't see him in the top 51. But he is only signed though 2016

Signing Revis is obviously the team's top priority at the moment, as well it should be! I thought we all agreed on that.

That has been the consensus on this board but is it what the Patriots head office is thinking?
BTW, that consenus is changing when fans are seeing how signing Revis will effect the rest of the roster.
The CAP space is just not there to sign Revis without drastically hurting the rest of the roster.

Sciz · Feb 13, 2015

JR4 said:
That has been the consensus on this board but is it what the Patriots head office is thinking?

This same head office has indicated that signing Revis is a priority this offseason, so perhaps you're better off not trying to appeal to their authority to prove a point.

JackBauer · Feb 13, 2015

JR4 said:
The CAP space is just not there to sign Revis without drastically hurting the rest of the roster.

I've yet to see an actual analysis produced which suggests this is the case.

JR4 · Feb 13, 2015

Sciz said:
This same head office has indicated that signing Revis is a priority this offseason, so perhaps you're better off not trying to appeal to their authority to prove a point.

You believe everything you read? Facts are CAP just isn't there and they know it.
See my post above and show where you are going to pick up at least 12M and more if they
want to keep Vereen.

JR4 · Feb 13, 2015

JackBauer said:
I've yet to see an actual analysis produced which suggests this is the case.

Just do it yourself. Get Miguels numbers. See the expected CAP space PATS will have. Subtract the CAP they need for draft picks plus a few million for unexpected events during the season
and the current CAP for the 51 top players. (this will be a negative number )
Figure how much savings PATS get from of Revis 20M being reduced and add that to the number above.
Then subtract an estimate of the CAP needed to extend PATS most important FAs like McCourty and Ghostkowski. It is not a hard thing to do.

mgteich · Feb 13, 2015

JR4 said:
OK I'll modify using your suggestions.

5M (estimated over cap right now)

6M to sign McCourty

3M Ghostkowski

2M Connolly

(no Vereen? I doubt it - but won't count him 3M Vereen)

1M Siliga (and NO Branch)

3M draft guys

2M unexpected needs during year

What about Malcom Buttler? How much to resign him?

With adjustments that's about 22M. ( and there are other PATS FA that should be extended )
Say Revis' new contract saves 10M save(I doubt this also) .... still need to come up with 12M
WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?????
Who are you going to Cut? Vince? How many will need to restructure? Will they restructure?
If you cut Vince and go with Siliga instead of Branch what will that do to PATs run D?
What about Buttler will you let him go?
Also this would mean PATS would NOT participate in any significant way in FA market because
they have no Cap space left even if you could find a way to find the 12M deficit noted above.

Signing Revis would be a very big mistake. IMO.

The list has been provide before and in considerable detail by Miguel here and in his blog. The amount needed is available through restructures and without losing any players. Let's list just a few possibilities.

LOOKING FOR $22M
================
CORRECTIONS - net zero
Correct cap number - $1M (per Miguel, we are less than $4M under)
Correct Siligs $1M (signing Siliga would actually reduce our cap hit, but I'll leave it at $0)
Adjust for Butler cost $0M (his cost is no more than the bottom of the 51 that count
Add back Casillas ($1M)
Add back Ridley ($1M)
=================
STILL LOOKING FOR $22M - Restructures or Extensions (no reduction in compensation is presumed, except for Amendola)
Brady - $4M
Gronk - $3M
Wilfork - $4M
Mayo - $3M
Solder - $3M
Amendola $2M (cut or restructure with reduced compensation to equal cap hit of cutting)
Vollmer - $1M
Arrington - $1M
Browner - $1M
Revis (Revis cap total could be as low as $12M, a $13M savings; I forget your assumption)

Cutting one or more of theses players would create cap more space than a restructure. A restructure could include a reduction in compensation with more savings that those shown. We could also cut Dennard and/or Hooman and save $1M for each.
============
You also might check Miguel's blog. He has written several times regarding this subject.

BOTTOM LINE
We could sign Revis and not lose any players except Branch, Vereen and Ayers.

Oswlek · Feb 13, 2015

JR4 said:
That has been the consensus on this board but is it what the Patriots head office is thinking?

What does this question even mean? Butler is an ERFA, he has no choice but to accept whatever tender NE offers or sit out a year in which case he'll be in the exact same situation come 2016. He doesn't factor into this discussion in any way.

JR4 · Feb 13, 2015

mgteich said:
The list has been provide before and in considerable detail by Miguel here and in his blog. The amount needed is available through restructures and without losing any players. Let's list just a few possibilities.

LOOKING FOR $22M
================
CORRECTIONS - $2M
Correct cap number - $1M (per Miguel, we are less than $4M under)
Correct Siligs $1M (signing Siliga would actually reduce our cap hit, but I'll leave it at $0)
Adjust for Butler cost $0M (his cost is no more than the bottom of the 51 that count
=================
LOOKING FOR $20M - Restructures or Extensions (no reduction in compensation is presumed, except for Amendola)
Brady - $4M
Gronk - $3M
Wilfork - $4M
Mayo - $3M
Solder - $3M
Amendola $2M (cut or restructure with reduced compensation to equal cap hit of cutting)
Vollmer - $1M
Arrington - $1M
Hooman - $1M
Browner - $1M
Revis (Revis cap total could be as low as $12M, a $13M savings; I forget your assumption)

Cutting one to more of theses players would create more space than a restructure. A restructure could include a reduction in compensation with more savings that those shown.

You really believe PATS are going to re-work ALL those contracts???
Plus please show how you are going to get Revis TOTAL CAP (5M already done deal)
down to 12M. Just show me a sample contract Revis would buy into to achieve this.
If you think Revis will buy into a Backload contract maybe we should just say all things are
possible in cyberspace and just wait for the chips to fall.

Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

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