Trading up makes too much sense

ZoisKing said:

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Here's a link to the draft value chart. It can give you an idea of what it might cost.

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Thank you for that! Much appreciated. From just doping a quick look at the chart and my terrible math, it looks like we could move up around 15-17 places in the second round by using our 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I just don't see this as a BB type move but I was curious to see what kind of a bump we could have if the right player fell.

bigcountry75 said:

I would trade up for Cam Erving. He is going to be a beast and has OL position flexibility in case of injury at any position. I also am friends with a guy that works for GM Jr which is run by an ex-nfl scout and he went to the senior bowl and gets to meet/interview draft prospects. He met with Jadaveon Clowney last year. Anyways the problem is that he said as the draft gets closer Erving will shoot up the boards. I don't think he will be within the Pats grasp without giving up a ton but I would love to see him on the pats next season.

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Of course, there's still a long way to go before the draft but, as of today, I'm not sure we'd have to trad up to get Erving. And I agree. I'm a big fan of Erving as a LG prospect for the Pats.

BelizePats said:

Thank you for that! Much appreciated. From just doping a quick look at the chart and my terrible math, it looks like we could move up around 15-17 places in the second round by using our 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I just don't see this as a BB type move but I was curious to see what kind of a bump we could have if the right player fell.

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You're very welcome sir. An important part of this though is the quality of the draft. I think this draft is low on talent compared to drafts past, so teams may want to hold on to their picks knowing that their options are a bit limited. Moving in to next year's draft may prove to be a solid option for us, if the opportunity presents itself.

Coming off a title with limited (hopefully) roster opening and a large amount of picks, NE will either trade up (and look splashy, make noise for the SB champs), trade for the future (acquire picks for '16 and beyond), or take some injury red flags that can be "red-shirted" or other reasonable red flags, this can apply to (similar like Easley or Lattimore):
Todd Gurley, RB, UGA (torn ACL) (Late Day 1, early Day 2 pick)
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon (torn ACL) (Early Day 3 pick)
Cebric Ogbuehi, OG, TAMU (knee injury) (Late Day1, Early Day 2 pick)

And I'll say this right now:
Out of all the red flag players I just saw listed for off-field issues, DGB is the most appealing (not necesarily for Day 1 or even 2)

Kraft won't take a woman beater, or a guy accused of it (cross Winston, Karlos Williams, Frank Clark, AJ Johnson off your boards right now)

This leaves red flag players such as DGB (weed, assault, burglary), Marcus Peters (dismissed from program), and Tevin McDonald (weed) to us, BB has taken guys accused of assault of burglary as late as last summer (Nu'keese Richardson) and has pot heads on his current roster (Blount), with a CB stable likely of Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, and Butler next year, Marcus Peters will not be in Foxboro anytime soon, Tevin McDonald, a Day 3 CB in a football family, may appeal to NE but there will definitely be safer options, but a top 10 talent and possibly the most talented WR available in DGB will certainly appeal to NE when he's available Day 2 and maybe 3

I know it's a super lonnnggg long shot, but if we took a flier on DGB that would be just making this year UNBELIEVABLE!! Being SB champs and DGB man oh man! lol Here's to hopin

manxman2601 said:

For now, there's only three players I'd want to trade up for: TJ Clemmings, Bud Dupree and Brandon Scherff. I haven't included Dante Fowler because I no longer think he falls. I'm afraid that I DO NOT want to trade up for a DT because to be frank they're not good enough (except possibly Armstead) or WR from this class because there's really nice depth.

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Sad to see that you have such a low opinion of the DT class. Its supposed to be one of the deepest position areas in this draft. Some other comments

1, Armestead IS a very intriguing prospect, though one that is likely to a a couple of years to develop even if he's a hit.

2. Given how deep the roster is already, especially if we sign our own FA's, it makes a lot of sense to pursue a quality over quantity draft strategy

3, I don't think BB goes into a draft looking to move up. I think its a circumstance thing. A could of things have to happen for this to occur. First they see someone that they didn't think would be there come into a reasonable range. Then they have to find a partner willing to give up the slot for what they can offer. That's not easy and you have to get lucky for both to happen.

4. Even though pass rushers are a deep position this year, I don't see the Pats going after one early for 2 reasons. First, when Mayo comes back, it will allow both Collins and Hightower to be used as pass rushers more. Second, you have to wonder if anyone they draft will be better than Moore and Buchannon.

5. Even if Vince comes back, DT is the one area of the team that needs to be restocked. What he have now is serviceable, but we need an upgrade in high end talent, and that means our first pick IMO (unless of course, no one worthy of a first round pick is left on the board)

6. It really sucks to pick 32nd in every round. What would it approximately take for the Pats to move as high as 20.

7. For those of you who annually push for a WR to be taken early, I offer this fact. People who seem to dismiss Dobson so quickly might not be aware of this stat. Comparing Dobson's rookie year with Dez Bryant you can't help notice that Bryant only had about 3 0 yds more receiving yds, (510-540) while Dobson averaged 2 more ypc (14-12)

Clearly Dobson was never healthy last season. Before people start lobbying for more WR's, we should wait to see how the one we already have on the roster is doing.

patfanken said:

6. It really sucks to pick 32nd in every round. What would it approximately take for the Pats to move as high as 20.

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Why does it suck? You're basically picking at the top of every round, except the 1st. The top 20 picks are over-priced most of the time, anyway, and half of them don't pan out.

I don't mind moving up a bit for a particular target if the Pats think it's worth the move, but in general I think the Pats are likely to get as good a player at 32 in this draft as would be available at 20.

patfanken said:

Sad to see that you have such a low opinion of the DT class. Its supposed to be one of the deepest position areas in this draft. Some other comments

1, Armestead IS a very intriguing prospect, though one that is likely to a a couple of years to develop even if he's a hit.

2. Given how deep the roster is already, especially if we sign our own FA's, it makes a lot of sense to pursue a quality over quantity draft strategy

3, I don't think BB goes into a draft looking to move up. I think its a circumstance thing. A could of things have to happen for this to occur. First they see someone that they didn't think would be there come into a reasonable range. Then they have to find a partner willing to give up the slot for what they can offer. That's not easy and you have to get lucky for both to happen.

4. Even though pass rushers are a deep position this year, I don't see the Pats going after one early for 2 reasons. First, when Mayo comes back, it will allow both Collins and Hightower to be used as pass rushers more. Second, you have to wonder if anyone they draft will be better than Moore and Buchannon.

5. Even if Vince comes back, DT is the one area of the team that needs to be restocked. What he have now is serviceable, but we need an upgrade in high end talent, and that means our first pick IMO (unless of course, no one worthy of a first round pick is left on the board)

6. It really sucks to pick 32nd in every round. What would it approximately take for the Pats to move as high as 20.

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1. My issue with the DTs is that none of them offer much of a pass rush threat - they are all run stoppers without the size or strength to take on double teams. In my book, that's not a first rounder. Amsted is horribly snow at the snap but he has genuine strength to go with his length and athleticism. He's the one I think could be a first rounder because he offers starting 5-tech upside.

2. I think we can use four of the first five picks, with one pick used to trade up perhaps. After that we're probably looking at PS .

3. BB will see how the board falls. It would be interesting to know if he has any expectations at all pre-draft.

4. I have two pass rushers that I'm targeting early: Bud Dupree who has Jamie Collins athleticism but the length to play on the edge. And Odighizuwa who has incredible strength and athleticism and projects well as a LDE and into a Michael Bennett interior rusher role. Both will probably be much better than Zach Moore and Buchanan.

5. I can see that there's a need at DT, I'm just not keep on the value at 32. Amsted is worthy of the pick at 32 but I don't believe Goldman, Phillips or Davis are. Having said that, all the aforementioned won't be there at 64 so it really comes down to how much BB wants to reach. I don't see the need in the same way as others do unless both Branch and Wilfork aren't on the team.

6. We went from 31 to 25 with a 4th and from 27 to 21 with a 3rd. I suspect a 2nd or our 3rd and TBs 4th gets us up to 20. Having said that, the first round talent drops off between 15-20 so it could be a buyers market in terms of moving up.

7. I'm quite happy picking at 32

Armstead is supposedly moving into Top 10 area according to Kiper this am. I think he might be a LDE who slides inside in pass-rush situations.

patsfaninpa said:

Armstead is supposedly moving into Top 10 area according to Kiper this am. I think he might be a LDE who slides inside in pass-rush situations.

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I'm with Manx on this one. Marcus Hardison > Armstead for that role.

patsfaninpa said:

Armstead is supposedly moving into Top 10 area according to Kiper this am. I think he might be a LDE who slides inside in pass-rush situations.

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Scouts inc have him at 10 too. ESPN going all in on Armsted. They were well ahead of CBS on Clemmings so I wouldn't discount it.

mayoclinic said:

I'm with Manx on this one. Marcus Hardison > Armstead for that role.

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Maybe long-term but Amsted will contribute from day one. Hardison is more of a project. i'm comfortable with Armsted being projected in the first (not top 10) and Hardison in the third (second if he JJ Watt's/Aaron Donald's the combine).

patsfaninpa said:

Armstead is supposedly moving into Top 10 area according to Kiper this am. I think he might be a LDE who slides inside in pass-rush situations.

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For us, I think Armsted's best fit is as the 5-tech in the 5-2 with Nink outside him:

Nink - Armstead - Wilfork/Siliga - Easley - Chandler Jones

manxman2601 said:

Maybe long-term but Amsted will contribute from day one. Hardison is more of a project. i'm comfortable with Armsted being projected in the first (not top 10) and Hardison in the third (second if he JJ Watt's/Aaron Donald's the combine).

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Maybe, though I don't think it's a given. Hardison took a while to figure out how to play DL, but the light came on pretty strongly. He could take time to develop, but it wouldn't shock me if he can contribute from day 1. He seems much more explosive than Amstead, I think Arsmstead is a good player, but he is slow off the ball, and he is way over-hyped right now.

A lot of DL are going to get selected in Round 1. Sounds like these guys are sure things; Williams, Gregory,Fowler, Ray, Armstead, Dupree, Shelton,Goldman and M. Brown. That's nine. I think there's a decent chance Jordan Phillips or Carl Davis will be available at 32. Maybe, Odighizuwa too. Though Matt Miller thinks he might run a 4.6. If he does, he won't be there at 32 either.

mayoclinic said:

Maybe, though I don't think it's a given. Hardison took a while to figure out how to play DL, but the light came on pretty strongly. He could take time to develop, but it wouldn't shock me if he can contribute from day 1. He seems much more explosive than Amstead, I think Arsmstead is a good player, but he is slow off the ball, and he is way over-hyped right now.

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Did you watch much of Senior Bowl practice? Hardison won with his quickness at the snap but he had balance issues and struggled when engaged. The trouble is, that he spent all his time playing end at ASU and didn't really learn to use his hands. That's something he'll need to learn if he's playing inside. I just don't see him two-gapping early. He'll get wins in a one gap system in year one just as a result of his quickness. But, he's a 310b DT with Easley's quickness and some of Hageman's athleticism. If everything clicks, he's well worth being patient with.

patsfaninpa said:

A lot of DL are going to get selected in Round 1. Sounds like these guys are sure things; Williams, Gregory,Fowler, Ray, Armstead, Dupree, Shelton,Goldman and M. Brown. That's nine. I think there's a decent chance Jordan Phillips or Carl Davis will be available at 32. Maybe, Odighizuwa too. Though Matt Miller thinks he might run a 4.6. If he does, he won't be there at 32 either.

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Do you mean Odighizuwa? Daniel Jeremiah said that he's already ran a 4.6 and could run a 4.5. The official times at the combine might slow that a little though.

I wouldn't count on Goldman and Brown being first round locks just yet. They might end up there, but this time in previous years, Tuitt, Hageman, Jernigan and Hankins were all being projected into the first. There's always movement post combine and DTs tend to drop unless they do a Poe or Brockers. I'm not saying they will drop but recent history has shown a bit of a precedence.

I don't trust un-official 40 times. I want to see a de do it before I say he's a 4.6 guy. Brown is completely healthy. He's getting a lot of love. Goldman could be there at 32. I don't think so. Detroit, Dallas, GB and Indy could use a player like him.

manxman2601 said:

Did you watch much of Senior Bowl practice? Hardison won with his quickness at the snap but he had balance issues and struggled when engaged. The trouble is, that he spent all his time playing end at ASU and didn't really learn to use his hands. That's something he'll need to learn if he's playing inside. I just don't see him two-gapping early. He'll get wins in a one gap system in year one just as a result of his quickness. But, he's a 310b DT with Easley's quickness and some of Hageman's athleticism. If everything clicks, he's well worth being patient with.

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I agree that Amstead's combat techniques are more advanced than Hardison's right now. But Hardison has legitimate edge speed, which is really rare for a 310# guy. You can't teach that. The Pats' DL staff is very good at coaching up combat tactics and edge setting - look how much progress Dominique Easley made in that regard. But you can't teach Hardison's quickness.

I'd actually say that Hardison is much better around the edge than Odighizuwa, despite outweighing the latter by 40 lbs. Conversely, Odighizuwa has much better combat tactics and inside rushing ability than Hardison, right now; but I like the odds of a 311# guy being able to do that at the pro level more than a 270# guy.

mayoclinic said:

I agree that Amstead's combat techniques are more advanced than Hardison's right now. But Hardison has legitimate edge speed, which is really rare for a 310# guy. You can't teach that. The Pats' DL staff is very good at coaching up combat tactics and edge setting - look how much progress Dominique Easley made in that regard. But you can't teach Hardison's quickness.

I'd actually say that Hardison is much better around the edge than Odighizuwa, despite outweighing the latter by 40 lbs. Conversely, Odighizuwa has much better combat tactics and inside rushing ability than Hardison, right now; but I like the odds of a 311# guy being able to do that at the pro level more than a 270# guy.

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Do you see him playing the 7-tech or are you just talking 5-tech? It was noticeable that he didn't take a single edge snap in the SB (game or practice). He can play 7,5,3 and maybe even 1 one day but I'm not sure the NFL see it that way. I think he'll be a 3-tech for most teams, maybe a 5-tech for base 3-4 one gapping teams. Don't forget, he's shorter than Odighizuwa.

Anyway, both are players I really like - I'm not going to choose between them.