Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

mgteich · Feb 12, 2015

Brady6 said:
I would never keep Revis with a $25M cap hit. He is the best CB in the game no doubt but he is a football player and they're all at risk of injury. That is way too many eggs in one basket.

$14M to $16M is a huge amount to commit to any player not playing QB. More than that, it's just NOT happening.

patfanken · Feb 12, 2015

mgteich said:
I agree with almost that you posted, all but the last sentence. The patriots do indeed rely on a few big money guys, IMHO, more than ever before. Revis, Wilfork, Mayo, Browner, Brady, Gronkowski and Solder get big money. On the other hand, I agree that no ONE player is critical, other than Brady. However, if the goal is Super Bowls, the Gronk is also critical. Most of us think that a healthy Gronkowski might have mean another SB win or two.

But my BOTTOM LINE is the say as yours. If Revis doesn't sign, Belichick will move on. We likely would still be co-favorties to win the AFC (after signing a free agent or two with the Revis money).

Don't disagree with anything you say, except your depicting Solder and Browner as being big money contracts. $7MM is actually quite reasonable for a top 15 LT. most vet starting LT's on their 2nd contracts are making over $10MM. Browner IIRC is in the $4MM range. That's hardly big money. In fact if you think about, Gronk at an $8MM cap number might just be the best bargain in the league. Just think about what teams are paying top WR's who don't have nearly the kind of impact Rob Gronkowski has. The WR Franchise tag for WR's is likely to be over $13MM.

Sorry for nitpicking

But I think we both agree, that regardless of how good your roster looks on paper when you open camp, the simple fact is that it will never be as good as it is that day. You can't COUNT on any player being there at the end, you can only hope for the best. But even then the reality is hoping it just isn't going to be "too bad", because there WILL be attrition., and teams that best prepare for it, are the ones who do the best

Ice_Ice_Brady · Feb 12, 2015

Brady6 said:
I would never keep Revis with a $25M cap hit. He is the best CB in the game no doubt but he is a football player and they're all at risk of injury. That is way too many eggs in one basket.

It's really a decision of $20M, since $5M will be paid regardless. Keeping Revis with that cap hit is the risk; the idea of keeping him is to initially hold him here for year 2 and then work out an extension to lessen the cap hit for 2015. By doing that, you are taking back a lot of leverage and hoping you can get him to agree in the best interest of his career. As I pointed out, Revis is at the peak of his value right now; who knows where he will be at the end of 2015; that's a question he would need to ask himself as to whether it's worth taking a big one-year deal right now or more than doubling up on his guaranteed money for a long-term deal. Revis was willing to bet on himself and take big risks when he was 25, 27 years-old. If the Patriots keep him for year 2, he won't hit free agency until he'll be a 31 year old cornerback. Teams take a lot of caution with that age and position.

Saint Pat · Feb 12, 2015

mgteich · Feb 12, 2015

patfanken said:
Don't disagree with anything you say, except your depicting Solder and Browner as being big money contracts. $7MM is actually quite reasonable for a top 15 LT. most vet starting LT's on their 2nd contracts are making over $10MM. Browner IIRC is in the $4MM range. That's hardly big money. In fact if you think about, Gronk at an $8MM cap number might just be the best bargain in the league. Just think about what teams are paying top WR's who don't have nearly the kind of impact Rob Gronkowski has. The WR Franchise tag for WR's is likely to be over $13MM.

Sorry for nitpicking But I think we both agree, that regardless of how good your roster looks on paper when you open camp, the simple fact is that it will never be as good as it is that day. You can't COUNT on any player being there at the end, you can only hope for the best. But even then the reality is hoping it just isn't going to be "too bad", because there WILL be attrition., and teams that best prepare for it, are the ones who do the best

Nitpicking is fine.

I think that this very young team is in extremely good cap shape, and does indeed have its players signed to reasonable contracts. If that weren't so, we wouldn't be able to be considering signing a corner for $15M a year. And has been pointed out, there has been little to make us believe that the patriots will actually ink a deal at this level. $12M for one year, when our top corner had signed elsewhere is one thing. Volunteering to pay $15M is quite another. Volunteering to play $20M is just plain silly.

BobDigital · Feb 12, 2015

patsbrasilpatriotas said:
To be honest i agree 100% with you. If he wants more than 14 m per year, I'd rather sign with ALL our FA (obviously reducing the numbers of those who have a contract inconsistent with their current level of play - Mayo , Wilfork , Amendola...).

I do not know how much money the Patriots will save if they cut Revis and sign all other FA. But if they sign the best FA CB to a fair price they can go to the draft only seeking for BPA.

If you don't sign Revis then the best option IMO is to use that money to sign one of the top FA CBs as well as use some to try to upgrade your DL which is the best way to try to off set the loss.

For the 15M you were going to pay on Revis (max)

You can probably sign Flowers/Cromartie to about a 9-10M/yr contract depending on how you structure it.

Also you can upgrade your DL with either a run stuffer like Dan Williams or a pass rusher like Jared Odrick at the DT spot for close to 5-6M/yr.

Personally I'd rather have Revis over the combo of Flowters & Williams.

Ross12 · Feb 12, 2015

I used to think that the team needed to retain Revis even if it meant paying the option, but now I've changed my mind. He's amazing, but committing that much money to one player is just an awful idea. Imagine if he gets paid, then goes out and tears his ACL in preseason? We're screwed.

I want Revis to come back, absolutely, but at a fair price. If it gets out of hand price-wise, the team should move on, and I think we all know they will. Bill is not one to be left in the dust. He will move on to Maxwell/Flowers/Cromartie before Revis even signs elsewhere.

RIpats88 · Feb 12, 2015

15million is the going rate for a corner....and he is the best there is. Paying him 12million this year certainly didnt hurt the patriots in free agency

You really want to go bargain bin hunting? And go another 10 years with a horrible secondary?

Granted I think the pats get it done and ultimately he will be paid 15-16million. He REALLY IS that valuable.

mgteich · Feb 12, 2015

RIpats88 said:
15million is the going rate for a corner....and he is the best there is. Paying him 12million this year certainly didnt hurt the patriots in free agency

You really want to go bargain bin hunting? And go another 10 years with a horrible secondary?

Granted I think the pats get it done and ultimately he will be paid 15-16million. He REALLY IS that valuable.

1) Well, the $12M didn't hurt the patriots because only $7M counted against the cap.

2) Please list all the CB's who make the "going rate" of $15M per year.

3) Finally, if Revis the going rate is $15M, and Revis is the best there, then certainly he is worth more than the going rate.

RIpats88 · Feb 12, 2015

Im talking elite or top cbs.Sherman and peterson make around 14-15million. Talib I think makes 13million. If you want a good secondary you have to pay

Revis said he doesnt need to be paid as the highest cb just be in the range.

patsfan-1982 · Feb 12, 2015

the pats could sign two Elite FA's with 25 million in Cap space there is no way he is a patriot if he dose not rework his contract

RIpats88 · Feb 12, 2015

mgteich said:
$14M to $16M is a huge amount to commit to any player not playing QB. More than that, it's just NOT happening.

Some of you are going to be pretty upset when that is what the patriots pay revis.

What do you expect them to pay? 5million a year for an elite cb who changes the dynamic of the defense?

rexxar · Feb 12, 2015

I wonder if winning the Super Bowl gave more leverage to the Patriots or to Revis.

Does Revis ever win a Super Bowl without signing with the team? Does he want to win again? Can he repeat elsewhere?

Do the Patriots win, or even get to, the Super Bowl without Revis?

Deus Irae · Feb 12, 2015

RIpats88 said:
Some of you are going to be pretty upset when that is what the patriots pay revis.

What do you expect them to pay? 5million a year for an elite cb who changes the dynamic of the defense?

(Some) Fans as GMs get ridiculous, year after year. We can't pay Revis. We have to pay roster spot #49!

mgteich · Feb 12, 2015

RIpats88 said:
Im talking elite or top cbs.Sherman and peterson make around 14-15million. Talib I think makes 13million. If you want a good secondary you have to pay

Revis said he doesnt need to be paid as the highest cb just be in the range.

Yes, Peterson and Sherman make $14M. No one makes $15M. Talib makes $9M.

JR4 · Feb 12, 2015

RIpats88 said:
15million is the going rate for a corner....and he is the best there is. Paying him 12million this year certainly didnt hurt the patriots in free agency

You really want to go bargain bin hunting? And go another 10 years with a horrible secondary?

Granted I think the pats get it done and ultimately he will be paid 15-16million. He REALLY IS that valuable.

Just one question .... where are PATS going to get the CAP space to everything they need to do?
Here is a short list (estimated CAP needed):

5M (estimated over cap right now)
8M to sign McCourty
3M Ghostkowski
3M Connolly
3M Vereen
3M Siliga or Branch
3M draft guys
2M unexpected needs during year

That's about 30M. ( and there are other PATS FA that should be extended )
Revis new contract if you say 15M saves 5 .... still need to come up with 25M
WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?????
please detail how to come up with the 25M extra CAP space needed.

It's easy to say give Revis 12 to 15 M but what about the rest of the roster?

patsfan-1982 · Feb 12, 2015

Joe Haden, Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman are the only CB's in the NFL making 13 to 14 million per and are all 4 plus years younger then Revis and only one other CB makes 10 million,

if paying a 30 year old Revis more then 11 or 12 million means Devin McCourty walks then they should cut Revis and keep McCourty. I understand Revis is a Elite CB that takes away one side of the field but what about the other 3 average CB's after browner without McCourty over top and a average pass rush the team will get burned all year vs the pass we forget that even with revis they were only 17th in pass defense

kennyb · Feb 12, 2015

A lot of those 13M 14m deals are back end loaded.

Flowers or Cromartie for 10m a year? That's nuts. Cromartie played for 3.5m on a one year deal last year. Flowers a 1 year deal 3m.

So you're off by a factor of 3.

kennyb · Feb 12, 2015

4 years 48m, 12m aav

sb 12m
Salaries 1,8,10,17

Cap hits including 5m from last year of 9, 11, 13, 20. So save 16m in cap space first year. He gets cut after 3 years it's about 10m per even if aav is 12m.

mgteich · Feb 12, 2015

JR4 said:
Just one question .... where are PATS going to get the CAP space to everything they need to do?
Here is a short list (estimated CAP needed):

5M (estimated over cap right now)

8M to sign McCourty

3M Ghostkowski

3M Connolly

3M Vereen

3M Siliga or Branch

3M draft guys

2M unexpected needs during year

That's about 30M. ( and there are other PATS FA that should be extended )
Revis new contract if you say 15M saves 5 .... still need to come up with 25M
WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?????
please detail how to come up with the 25M extra CAP space needed.

It's easy to say give Revis 12 to 15 M but what about the rest of the roster?

I've shown a list. Miguel has been giving details for months.

Part of the issue is that your cost numbers are overstated. Connolly's cap hit is likely to be $2M. We won't sign everyone; Vereen is unlikely. As an ERFA, Siliga is not $3M; his cost is under $750K. McCourty's first year cap hit will be closer to $5M or perhaps $6M. The savings from Revis is likely to be $10M or more, even with an AAV of $14-16M.

Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

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