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If Manning retires or is released his “dead money” charge is just $5 million against the salary cap. The reason the number is so low is because the Broncos used a pay as you go structure with Manning due to his neck injury and the Broncos internal strategies with most contracts. This was very different than Manning’s last contract with Indianapolis in which Manning received a $20 million signing bonus. Manning made $58 million from Denver over the last three years.
http://overthecap.com/major-contract-questions-facing-broncos-without-peyton-manning/
He could end up in warm and domed Phoenix
The dome isn't going to do a lick of good if the problem is his arm. He'll spend his time throwing ducks to the sidelines and getting his receivers killed over the middle.
He is going to go out like Marino rather tha Elway. Marino stayed at the party way too long chasing personal records. Marino should have retired about two years before he did. Manning is on that trajectory. I think it hurt Marino's legacy because he is never mentioned among the top 3 of all time even though he held all the records when he retired.
Every D Manning faces will most likely do what the Colts did to him in the playoff one and done. Clog the middle, and dare him to throw sideline routes until he proves he can make those throws.
Elway could sign his FA receivers and go with Osweiler, and still have a good team. Or he could gamble on Peyton's health.