The substitutions prior to the INT

When Carroll explained why he went with a pass call in that situation, he says the reason was that NE went with its goal line package. I was a little confused by that answer as he certainly could have dictated whatever he wanted with his own substitutions, but I see what he means now.

The offense subs first, and the defense is then allowed to respond with its subs. Pete sent out 3 WR's for that play, a bit unusual considering he was on the 1 yard line and had Lynch in his backfield. You'd expect 1 or 2 WR's at most.

I think his calculus was that BB would react to this grouping by fielding 4 DB's and 7 in the box, which would give Carroll the confidence to run the ball, which is what he really wanted to do anyway; his 3 WR set was just a ploy to get the defensive look he wanted.

But when BB responded with 3 DB's and 8 in the box, Seattle found itself not only at a disadvantage with a run call, but also at an advantage with a pass call. To do anything but pass at that point would have been very bad football.

Belichick said on D&H that he didn't call time out because he liked what was going on with the substitutions at that moment. He couched that comment in terms of how difficult it is sometimes to get the right sub package called and onto the field on time, but I think what we was really saying is that:
- Pete just handed me a gift from God by sending out 3 WR's
- I want him to pass cause I know what play he'll call and we're ready for it
- I'm sending out only 3 DB's so that he'll be SURE to pass
- I'm not calling any TO so that they can re-consider all this

Checkmate.

Carroll explained all of this 5 minutes after the game but because he used the word choice "wasted play" the media harped on those two words for a week.

And that's without even understanding that the concept of wasting a play was that if they passed on one of the three remaining downs they get three plays but if they ran they would only get two. Thus, the pass was a free play, a chance to "waste" an extra play if it failed, barring everything except the worst possible scenario, an improbable perfectly timed pick by a player who had been impeccably coached and made perhaps the play of his life.

But no, Pete said "wasted play" so let's spend 4 more months on semantics.

not so smart this time huh

It's also why Belichick did not call time out, up 4 with 26 seconds to go. He had the right matchup on the field for the three-receiver package that Seattle was showing. He and Matt Patricia trusted their defense to break up that play or penetrate into the backfield to get to Lynch.

Seattle should have called timeout right there and put in their heavy package or, at the very least run a fade route throwing the ball over the top of the Patriot defenders.

goheels22002 said:

It's also why Belichick did not call time out, up 4 with 26 seconds to go. He had the right matchup on the field for the three-receiver package that Seattle was showing. He and Matt Patricia trusted their defense to break up that play or penetrate into the backfield to get to Lynch.

Seattle should have called timeout right there and put in their heavy package or, at the very least run a fade route throwing the ball over the top of the Patriot defenders.

Click to expand...

The heavy package doesn't gets them much. Pats had the right unit for that play.

Cha Jones
VW
Branch
Chr Jones
Sig
Nink

Collins
HT

Revis
BB
Butler

The fade route on Butler would have been the appropriate call...oh well.

robertweathers said:

...

The fade route on Butler would have been the appropriate call...oh well.

Click to expand...

Miracle catch followed by a fade route TD would have just sent me right over the edge. Glad it din't come to that.

Uncle Rico said:

Miracle catch followed by a fade route TD would have just sent me right over the edge. Glad it din't come to that.

Click to expand...

Gawd....I would have gone right to a steady diet of Oxy and Makers Mark...

robertweathers said:

The heavy package doesn't gets them much. Pats had the right unit for that play.

Cha Jones
VW
Branch
Chr Jones
Sig
Nink

Collins
HT

Revis
BB
Butler

The fade route on Butler would have been the appropriate call...oh well.

Click to expand...

So Wilson could have changed it at the LOS but didn't - maybe he should take the hit for the wrong play.

With a fade, if the Pats had any sense they would commit PI once he ran into the endzone. They would only get penalized like 4 inches. At 2 yards and less penalties become almost free. I wouldn't be surprised if that's part of the thinking on those plays. The pick route is harder to interfere on IMO, he should have the ball before he meets the defender.

willdeespats said:

So Wilson could have changed it at the LOS but didn't - maybe he should take the hit for the wrong play.

Click to expand...

As a third-year QB, Wilson probably doesn't have th freedom to check out of a play at the one-yard line in the Super Bowl with under a minute to play.

Bobsyouruncle said:

With a fade, if the Pats had any sense they would commit PI once he ran into the endzone. They would only get penalized like 4 inches. At 2 yards and less penalties become almost free. I wouldn't be surprised if that's part of the thinking on those plays. The pick route is harder to interfere on IMO, he should have the ball before he meets the defender.

Click to expand...

First down is the real penalty, not the six microns of movement. But with 20 seconds left, even the first down is ameliorated to some degree.

At one point after the game Carroll said he learned a lesson the hard way. What did he mean by that? Because he's also standing by the plays he called.

And didn't the Seahawks burn their second time out at the end too? Why did they do that? I forget. Shouldn't that have been a big mistake as well

4thRing-Hunt said:

At one point after the game Carroll said he learned a lesson the hard way. What did he mean by that? Because he's also standing by the plays he called.

And didn't the Seahawks burn their second time out at the end too? Why did they do that? I forget. Shouldn't that have been a big mistake as well

Click to expand...

They were celebrating the miracle catch and could not run a play in time. If I had to guess what lesson they had to learn, it would be clock management.


Eagles lost to us because they could not run the hurry up.
Panthers and Rams left too much time on the clock.

Unfortunately we also left too much time on the clock when we lost to the Giants.

4thRing-Hunt said:

At one point after the game Carroll said he learned a lesson the hard way. What did he mean by that? Because he's also standing by the plays he called.

And didn't the Seahawks burn their second time out at the end too? Why did they do that? I forget. Shouldn't that have been a big mistake as well

Click to expand...

Maybe he thought the play was unstoppable, but it relied on pushing Browner back so far, no one could get in between the qb and receiver.

Except, if Browner makes up his mind not to be pushed, there's no pick. Browner fighting off that pick makes the play and BB knew he had the strength to stuff the pick.

nabwong said:

They were celebrating the miracle catch and could not run a play in time. If I had to guess what lesson they had to learn, it would be clock management.


Eagles lost to us because they could not run the hurry up.
Panthers and Rams left too much time on the clock.

Unfortunately we also left too much time on the clock when we lost to the Giants.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. If they really wasted a time out for celebrating that is a huge mistake that should have gotten more media attention. Of course I don't buy the fact that they had to throw with one TO. Something tells me Carroll would have called the same play regardless of another time out. He wanted to throw that ball for whatever reason. I can't believe Wilson didn't check out of that play. I know he's young but he's a super bowl champ. He should have checked out and ran the ball. Glad he didn't though.

willdeespats said:

So Wilson could have changed it at the LOS but didn't - maybe he should take the hit for the wrong play.

Click to expand...

Wilson could have changed the formation for sure.

4thRing-Hunt said:

Thanks for the info. If they really wasted a time out for celebrating that is a huge mistake that should have gotten more media attention. Of course I don't buy the fact that they had to throw with one TO. Something tells me Carroll would have called the same play regardless of another time out. He wanted to throw that ball for whatever reason. I can't believe Wilson didn't check out of that play. I know he's young but he's a super bowl champ. He should have checked out and ran the ball. Glad he didn't though.

Click to expand...

Some stats to consider

1. Lynch is 1 of 5 from the 1 yard line. 2 were actually for loss.

2. There were ZERO interceptions from throw from the 1 yard line the whole season.

No one really expected butler to make that interception. 999 out of 1000, that would have been either TD or incomplete. Butler just made a heck of a play. Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't have passed either. But it's not a bad thing to do.

RayClay said:

Except, if Browner makes up his mind not to be pushed, there's no pick. Browner fighting off that pick makes the play and BB knew he had the strength to stuff the pick.

Click to expand...

Exactly. Overlooked on the play is that Browner blew that play up with his physicality.

That was a designed pick play. Kearse is to move quickly to the inside bump past the first db and pick the second db (Butler.)

Browner destroyed the chance of the pick by fighting off Kearse at the line.

The pats brought Browner in for his toughness, and that decision can be directly linked to a Superbowl victory.

bevell already decided that he was going to run on 1st down and then throw on 2nd down. you can hear him clearly say it on "nfl turning point" (sound quality isn't that good, unfortunately):

start at 1:42


on 1st and goal:

wilson: what are we thinking once this play is over? we got base in the game, what are we thinking--
bevell: i'm gonna run the next personnel in and gonna throw the next play. we still have a timeout. we'll use every minute of this clock here.
wilson: okay.

Click to expand...

By the way, since it's over, why in hell isn't that a penalty? Are picks just de facto legal now?