The focus, as it should be, is on bringing back Revis and McCourty, and giving us one of the best two secondaries in the NFL. IMHO, Mayo will stay (with some kind of restructure or not), giving us on of the bed two or three linebacker corps in the NFL. Think about that for awhile!
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DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN (with 3-4 openings)
DE: Ninkovich, Jones, Moore, Buchanan
DT: Siliga, Easley, Jones, draftee
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES AND PRIORITIES?
Where would you spend money to improve the above 11 front seven?
1) We need a linebacker/STer or two, one of which could play defensive reps as needed. The candidates are AYERS, CASILLAS and WHITE.
2) We could use a quality backup DE who could start if needed. One candidate is AYERS.
3) We need a run-stopping DT or two. One is probably a draftee. This is good for the future and saves cap money. Candidates are WILFORK and BRANCH.
ANALYSIS
1) One of the players is probably a low-salary special teamer like White. However, for a little bit more we could have CASILLAS.
2) AYERS is a backup DE and OLB. He also can be the "starter" in the base. he has moved ahead of Casillas in that role.
3) BRANCH has done very well and should be good for a 3-year relatively inexpensive contract.
4) And then there is WILFORK who is owed a roster bonus before March 11th and will earn over $8M if there is no change in compensation.
QUESTION 1: How much is Casillas worth, compared to say White?
QUESTION 2: How much more is Wilfork worth over the next two years compared to Branch? We should be drafting a youngster to eventually start opposite Easley. Siliga and Jones are fine backups.
QUESTION 3: How much is a backup DE worth? What if Ninkovich or Jones can't play 90% of the defensive reps. Should we expect Moore or Buchanan to start? How much is Ayers worth as a backup DE and OLB backup ?
THE DEFAULT
is to re-sign White, Casillas and keep Wilfork at his present compensation. Is there a better plan for these three positions?
MY GUESS
is that we'll re-sign Casillas in any case. I list White, but obviously the choice could be another special teamer or a LB draftee. That doesn't change the choice before us much.
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OPTION 1: Wilfork and White
OPTION 2: Branch and White
OPTION 3: Branch and Ayers
OPTION 4: Ayers and White
Personally, I think that AYERS add a lot to the defense, being a key backup at both DE and LB. If there are no injuries, re-signing him will look like a waste. After all, he'll get very few reps with everyone healthy: Ninkovich, Jones, Mayo, Hightower and Collins. However, if there is an injury to any of these, Ayers will be valuable. Also, signing Ayers to a long-term deal provides some protection for the future if we cannot re-sign both Hightower and Collins, or if Mayo does come back enough to be worth top dollar in 2015 or 2016 or in 2017.
If we are going to spend more than $9M on two front seven players, one option is Wilfork and White. I prefer Ayers and Branch. I also suspect that there would be $3M of cap savings. The cap savings wouldn't be an issue if Wilfork were willing to take a $3M cut in pay.
WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK?