It was one of the most beautifully executed plays I have ever seen, it was a clinic. It was not luck, it was the daily grind that Belichick puts them through, working through situations like this.
We have bingo.
I believe Butler even said they practiced defending that rub route.... and you can tell from him jumping it, he was 100% aware of time on the clock and TAKING THAT CHANCE to jump the route. He was ready to make that play, that's half of making that play... I mean ready at the body-readiness level... instinct and athleticism did the rest.
Here's a few things that go into the Pats "getting lucky" and finally getting the dice to roll their way:
1) They had already outscored Seattle 14-0 in the 4th quarter (Gee, maybe those few dozen plays Brady [and others] made also helped... go figure, they made him MVP after 300+ yards and 4 TDs against the league's best defense.)
2) Bill's situational awareness drills and preaching
3) Butler's athleticism and sharpness
4) NOBODY had given up even though it was clearly "time to give up" if you're not playing all 60 minutes (including all 60 seconds of that last minute, after the world's most demoralizing play).
5) BB TRUSTS his defense to get it done (and *&^*^%s with Carrol's head in the bargain,) and lets the clock tick instead of calling the TO
6) The play before: Yes, Marshawn gets 4. No, Marshawn does not get 5. No how, no way.
7) As to the play itself: Carroll wants all 4 shots at the end zone. He's on his second and gets an obvious run package matchup. He takes his shot on a high percentage end zone rub route... and Butler jumps it. That took smarts, training, instinct, and athleticism. Bad call? You run the ball and get stuffed, and then how does it look?
8) The Pats were sixth in red zone defense; I don't know their ranking at the goal line. In this rare
accurate ESPN article, you get the idea of just how important red zone D is to Belichick:
That's precisely why Bill Belichick, when asked what statistics matter most, has never cited QBR or DVOA or any other flashy metric that promises to reveal all of football's mysteries. No, Belichick always cites red zone efficiency -- how often his teams score or stop the opponent in those boring 20 yards that commentators love
to drone on about, reminding you it's important to score touchdowns like a dentist reminds you to floss.
9) Lynch had been stuffed for losses twice in the game. By the time the ball was snapped on second down, once could have put them in a 3rd and 3 after the last TO.
Here's a
Slate article making many of these arguments, that also includes this interesting stat: "Marshawn Lynch ran the ball from the 1 yard line 5 times this season. 1 TD, 2 runs for no gain, 2 runs for a loss."
Now: If Lynch isn't stuffed twice during the course of the game, does that change Carroll's calculus? As it was, he knew that Lynch might be the best back in the NFL, but not money at the goal line. 20% chance. Final timeout, then final play call. Three shots instead of 4.
OR, you can pass first... what's the matchup? The big goal line D, man on receivers. When's the time to pass? NOW, while you're seeing that look...
especially when you know they've stuffed Lynch twice in this game.
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Final coda: this no-quit crew may very well have done as Carroll feared and stuffed Lynch - that's one thing that's lost in the rush to say Seattle lost it, NE didn't win it. Carroll's already looking at a 20% shot by running Lynch, based on previous performance from the 1, and another 20% shot on third down. Carroll didn't TRUST.
Bill watched that clock tick down, and he did. He trusted his D. Giving TFB 30 seconds to get into field goal position wasn't the safest bet this year... and the result was chaos on the Seattle sideline.
He TRUSTED that SOMEONE on this D would step up and make a play. It took the stars aligning and all that jazz, but so did that bobble-catch that's the reason we're even discussing Seattle winning this game. (Not to mention the Tyree and Manningham catches).
I think this kid Butler might be very good - another UDFA or late round pick that saves the day more than once, as NE has so frequently turned up.
If not, he's earned his place in my heart for all eternity, even if he's a one-game wonder.
/rant
