Idle thoughts – the pregame edition.

I want to make this completely free of any “deflategate” or Goodell talk. At this point of the proceedings there is nothing to be done about either, so why include them into our final thoughts. Not that there still isn’t tons of stuff to say, but just not here or now. I would like to think that our day will come to pass on this matter, but I’m not holding my breath.

I’m going to make just one assumption before I start. That is that the fix isn’t in with the refs. I don’t expect an even game, just one that the bias hasn’t been predetermined. As long as the “bad calls” are fairly evenly distributed, I’ll be OK. If that’s the case, then I’ll start with my prediction at the top and then justify it with my comments. OK? Then let’s get going.

1. I actually think I feel better about the team’s chances going into this game than I did with the Raven’s and Colts games. If the commissioner keeps his grubby hands off the game, and there aren’t any “helmet catches”, I fully expect this to be 10-17 pt win, with Pats fans able to enjoy the 4th quarter without any angst or drama. There I said it. Here is why.
2. I know that these are both 2 very good teams. The best teams in the league. I know that the Seahawks probably have the best D in the league, and certainly the best back 7. They also are the team best prepared to face Gronk in terms of multiple players who can possibly defend him. So let me breakdown the Pats O vs the Seattle D first.
3. First I want to make it clear, that while the Seattle D has been the best in the league by literally all metrics, I think it is very much over rated as to where they stand in the pantheon of great defenses in league history.
4. This has been a very good defense that has played nothing but LIMIITED offenses over the last 10 games of the season including the playoffs. We have this discussed several times before, but it bears repeating because the mediots keep on ignoring it. They have played nothing but backups, backups to backups, rookies, and Colin Kapernick over the last 8 games. Then in the playoffs they got a mediocre Cam Newton, with a bad Panther offense, and an injured Aaron Rodgers, AT HOME, who still moved the ball very well against them.
5. If you go back through their games you will find that just about every offense that was merely good, and had a better than average QB, either beat Seattle or moved the ball very well. In fact, to put this in perspective, the BEST win the Seahawks have over the last half of the year, was on the road against the Miami Dolphins. Are you really that afraid of a team who counts THAT as their signature win after September?
6. In some respects a stationary Tom Brady makes some of what their defense faces a bit easier. But they also have to face a QB who is accurate, with a quick release, and as many as 5 reliable, if not great, receivers on every pattern. Most importantly we can count of Brady getting the ball to the right match up most of the time.
7. There is no question that the Seattle game plan will be to stack the “box” with at least 8 players, to not only stop the run, but to also squeeze the Pats’ short passing game in the middle. To do that Seattle will use tight 4 or 5 man under zones, with a single high S
8. Please don’t think of these as zones like ones we’d see from DelRio, or Wade Philipps. Most people looking at these coverages will have a hard time differentiating them from press man. At the snap most of the techniques will be the same. Part of the plan is to have it look like man in those first 2-3 seconds where Brady most often gets rid of the ball. They want EVERY one of those short passes contested, and the minimum amount of YAC to be gained. Seattle is like every good defense, in that they want every drive to take 10-14 plays, because they KNOW, that if it takes that long, the offense itself will make a mistake that will kill the drive. That is how hard it is to choreograph 11 people to get on the same page AND execute over and over again.
9. What to watch from the offense: For me it will be the type of formations that the Pats choose to run and pass from. Will they pass all the time they line up in shotgun and 4 quick receivers (2TE’s/2WR’s or 4WR’s including Gronk wide) and Run all the time from 2RB heavy formations? This has been a recent tendency. OR will they run from what looks like usual throwing formations and visa versa. I would really like to see more running from what have been almost exclusively passing formations, and with Blount, not just Vareen\
10. This is a key point to understand about the Seattle defense and one of the reasons for its success. Seattle probably does the least amount of package substitutions in the league. You spread them out and MAYBE they add another DB. You go heavy with 6 offensive linemen and MAYBE they add another DLman. Your formations, your motions, and alignments are NOT going to get them out of their 4 man front and 4 and 5 man unders UNLESS or until you prove you can move the ball consistently.
11. That is one of the benefits of playing the same basic defensive game plan every week from the same alignments. Believe me it’s not simplistic, it is just a lot less complex than the week to week defenses the Pats utilize every week. The Pats make a lot of hay each week by confusing other team’s defenses with varied formations and personnel packages. I’m just saying it will be a lot harder to do that they week because the Seahawks simply don’t care. This isn't a team you are going to fool, its one you need to out execute.
12. I’m looking for Josh to come up with some route schemes that will take into consideration what they should get from Seattle. For example, an old favorite of mine that is perfect for all the WRs depending on formation. It’s the short incut from an inside receiver, who then after taking the first 2-3 steps in, breaks it back up the seam again. Usually while this is going on, Gronk is going up the other seam taking 2-3 guys with him, leaving that other defender jumping the in cut and no one behind him. This is the pattern that could get even Welker behind the 2ndary
13. This is the kind of small variation off a common Pats route scheme I’d like to see them run this week. Not only will they get good yardage, one of the most damaging thing you can do to a defense is make them lose confidence in their keys and their game plan.
14. I’m not worried about the Seattle pass rush. I believe our OL is better than GB’s and GB did a good job of protecting an immobile Rodgers for most of the game. I’m confident that their 4 man rush is not going to get to Brady, especially when they won’t have the advantage playing in Seattle has to that pass rush. I’m sure it won’t be perfect either. But what I don’t expect is the constant siege kind of look we saw Brady under early in the year. A couple of sacks won’t bother me a bit as long as they are isolated incidents rather than constant pressure.

The Pats D vs the Seattle O

1. Trying to predict what BB and Patricia will come up with is really guessing but here it goes
2. I think they will come out a bit heavier in a basic 4-3 with Ninko Hightower and Collins at LB. The Pats will go a bit bigger with Jones Wilfolk Branch and Jones/Siliga as the DL. Let the Seahawks try to run through that to start the game.
3. Then as they get more comfortable with stopping the run, they will drop Ninko back to the DE, and add Arrington to the secondary. At that point they my want to drop Browner more on the inside to work on the TE and help in the run.
4. Given who they have played, our defense is playing just as well as the Seahawks. I’ve repeated this before, but again none of the mediots seem to be listening. The Seahawks over the last 8, fourth quarters have allowed just 14 points, including the playoffs. This is a truly an impressive accomplishment when you think about it. But think about this. Over the same 8 fourth quarters, against superior QB’s, the Pats defense has given up only THIRTEEN points.
5. Not impressed, think about this. In the last 113 minutes, against 2 of the top 5 offenses in the league, the Pats have given up a TOTAL of 24 points
6. Need more? Remember when I told you that to cause a team to lose confidence in their game plan is a killer? Well that’s what happened on those first 2 drives vs Baltimore. Kudo’s to them. They found the holes in the Pats D, and gashed them for 2 easy TD’s in the first 7 minutes of that game. Most teams don’t have the mental toughness to come back from that.
7. But the Pats do and after that point, for the next 53 minutes, one of the top 5 offenses in the league managed just 17 points on one drive that was a gift from the refs, their opening drive of the 2nd half, and one drive into the red zone that resulted in a FG. Meanwhile the Pats were scoring 35 points on a top 10 defense without using a running game.
8. So forget about the x’s and o’s, what have we learned conclusively from the Patriots this entire season, especially from the last 14 games? That in EVERY circumstance whatever the defensive results are at the beginning of the game, without exception, it will get continually better as the game goes on, until by the 4th quarter scoring becomes none existent. Remember this was the case against the Ravens, but it also was the case against the Packers in a losing effort. They always get better.
9. This my friends is what was missing from our recent playoff appearances. In both the last 2 superbowl games, our defense played well enough to win the game, but NOT well enough to close it out. We have that kind of defense now. We haven’t had one that was close for the last 7 seasons, and it’s the main reason why we will win this game, plus one more.

Summary – I’ll make it simple. The defenses are pretty much a push. Both are very good. Our offense is simply better. It’s more versatile, flexible and deeper. Finally, the unmentioned aspect, they are the special teams. Their’s are decent, but ours have been otherworldly this season. Better KO returns, Better punt returns, better KO/Punt coverage, and better punter and FG kicker. None of these advantages are huge, of course, but they do exist and if this game is going to be as close as the “experts” think, ST’s could easily become the turning point.

OK you have just 23.5 more hours to kill before game time and we get to see it all playout without any distractions. I hope this helps get you through.

BTW- How many among you will watch this game like me, without bothering to see a single pregame show?

I haven't seen a single pregame show, either, and will not.

Anyhow, I did run across this factoid online, which does not calm the butterflies:

The Patriots have been held under 21 points 24 times since 2009 (postseason included) and are 6-18.
Since Wilson became the starter in 2012, the Seahawks have been held under 21 points 17 times and are 11-6.

Yeah, I'm probably not watching anything football related tomorrow until close to game time.

I still have my game day routine, and will be wearing the same shirt & sweats I wear every game, so as not to %$*( anything for New England.

I also agree with your assertions about the Patriots defense. It's been amazing to watch, and the only thing more amazing to watch is how the mediots & reportards dis New England's success. Compared to the teams New England has played the past 11 games, Seattle has been almost able to coast. I do believe that the Seahawks are in for a rather rude awakening, as I doubt that New England will make the same mistakes GB did during the NFCCG.

Thanks for another fine write-up, Ken. It's always a treat to read your stuff.

GO PATS!

rlcarr said:

I haven't seen a single pregame show, either, and will not.

Anyhow, I did run across this factoid online, which does not calm the butterflies:

The Patriots have been held under 21 points 24 times since 2009 (postseason included) and are 6-18.
Since Wilson became the starter in 2012, the Seahawks have been held under 21 points 17 times and are 11-6.

Click to expand...

I posted this elsewhere but pats are 12-0 scoring 23+. Seahawks are 1-4 if they give up 23+.

patfanken said:

I ...

1. I actually think I feel better about the team’s chances going into this game than I did with the Raven’s and Colts games. If the commissioner keeps his grubby hands off the game, and there aren’t any “helmet catches”, I fully expect this to be 10-17 pt win,
2. 
   
3. 
   
4. This has been a very good defense that has played nothing but LIMIITED offenses over the last 10 games of the season including the playoffs. ...They have played nothing but backups, backups to backups, rookies, and Colin Kapernick over the last 8 games. ....
5. ?
6. In
7. S
9. .... I would really like to see more running from what have been almost exclusively passing formations, and with Blount, not just Vareen\
10. 
    
11. 
    
12. I’m looking for Josh to come up with some route schemes that will take into consideration what they should get from Seattle. For example, an old favorite of mine that is perfect for all the WRs depending on formation. It’s the short incut from an inside receiver, who then after taking the first 2-3 steps in, breaks it back up the seam again. Usually while this is going on, Gronk is going up the other seam taking 2-3 guys with him, leaving that other defender jumping the in cut and no one behind him. This is the pattern that could get even Welker behind the 2ndary
13. This is the kind of small variation off a common Pats route scheme I’d like to see them run this week. Not only will they get good yardage, one of the most damaging thing you can do to a defense is make them lose confidence in their keys and their game plan.

Click to expand...

Super read ken, as always.
1. i like your thoughts, but rational me says BB has never had a SB (asDC or HC) that he didn't end up + - 4 pts or else let a team back in it even if stats/time wise they should have been out of it. Expecting another nail biter.

4. Sb is a big stage, sometimes folks step up. I laughed about gints, then our OL got injured TE hobbled and goodnite Gracie.

9/12/13. Great thoughts, especially the part about getting them to question themselves. I hope they fake an edeldude lateral-pass and either lat back to TB or TB just pump fakes and then sends it down to wright or JoJo running the other side seam. (Gronk and edel drawing everyone)

Guys, the past few weeks have been fun, despite the idiotic deflategate crap that was slung our way relentlessly.

I enjoyed reading all of your posts, this is a great community. This will be my last post before the SB! Go Pats! I believe in this team. I never wavered, even at our darkest hour against the Ravens.

I believe in their team chemistry. I believe in the leadership. I believe in their ability. I believe in their will to win.

The Seahawks are just going to have to let us have this one. We've been through too much.

GO PATS!!!! Win one for your loyal fans!!!!

patfanken said:

The Pats D vs the Seattle O

1. Trying to predict what BB and Patricia will come up with is really guessing but here it goes
2. I think they will come out a bit heavier in a basic 4-3 with Ninko Hightower and Collins at LB. The Pats will go a bit bigger with Jones Wilfolk Branch and Jones/Siliga as the DL. Let the Seahawks try to run through that to start the game.
3. Then as they get more comfortable with stopping the run, they will drop Ninko back to the DE, and add Arrington to the secondary. At that point they my want to drop Browner more on the inside to work on the TE and help in the run.
4. Given who they have played, our defense is playing just as well as the Seahawks. I’ve repeated this before, but again none of the mediots seem to be listening. The Seahawks over the last 8, fourth quarters have allowed just 14 points, including the playoffs. This is a truly an impressive accomplishment when you think about it. But think about this. Over the same 8 fourth quarters, against superior QB’s, the Pats defense has given up only THIRTEEN points.
5. Not impressed, think about this. In the last 113 minutes, against 2 of the top 5 offenses in the league, the Pats have given up a TOTAL of 24 points
6. Need more? Remember when I told you that to cause a team to lose confidence in their game plan is a killer? Well that’s what happened on those first 2 drives vs Baltimore. Kudo’s to them. They found the holes in the Pats D, and gashed them for 2 easy TD’s in the first 7 minutes of that game. Most teams don’t have the mental toughness to come back from that.
7. But the Pats do and after that point, for the next 53 minutes, one of the top 5 offenses in the league managed just 17 points on one drive that was a gift from the refs, their opening drive of the 2nd half, and one drive into the red zone that resulted in a FG. Meanwhile the Pats were scoring 35 points on a top 10 defense without using a running game.
8. So forget about the x’s and o’s, what have we learned conclusively from the Patriots this entire season, especially from the last 14 games? That in EVERY circumstance whatever the defensive results are at the beginning of the game, without exception, it will get continually better as the game goes on, until by the 4th quarter scoring becomes none existent. Remember this was the case against the Ravens, but it also was the case against the Packers in a losing effort. They always get better.
9. This my friends is what was missing from our recent playoff appearances. In both the last 2 superbowl games, our defense played well enough to win the game, but NOT well enough to close it out. We have that kind of defense now. We haven’t had one that was close for the last 7 seasons, and it’s the main reason why we will win this game, plus one more.

Summary – I’ll make it simple. The defenses are pretty much a push. Both are very good. Our offense is simply better. It’s more versatile, flexible and deeper. Finally, the unmentioned aspect, they are the special teams. Their’s are decent, but ours have been otherworldly this season. Better KO returns, Better punt returns, better KO/Punt coverage, and better punter and FG kicker. None of these advantages are huge, of course, but they do exist and if this game is going to be as close as the “experts” think, ST’s could easily become the turning point.

OK you have just 23.5 more hours to kill before game time and we get to see it all playout without any distractions. I hope this helps get you through.

BTW- How many among you will watch this game like me, without bothering to see a single pregame show?

Click to expand...

I hear you about the defense stiffening over the course of the game; it's hard to miss. Even so, I look all the way back at the Super Bowls the Patriots won. It was generally believed that momentum would be on the Rams' side if the game went to OT. Carolina ended with an offensive explosion. And Philadelphia could have gone awry if McNabb/Reid didn't choke.

And I watch pregame shows essentially never. Tomorrow is unlikely to be an exception.

rlcarr said:

I haven't seen a single pregame show, either, and will not.

Anyhow, I did run across this factoid online, which does not calm the butterflies:

The Patriots have been held under 21 points 24 times since 2009 (postseason included) and are 6-18.
Since Wilson became the starter in 2012, the Seahawks have been held under 21 points 17 times and are 11-6.

Click to expand...

Excellent, I'm sure glad we're taking the Pats 2014 defense and not the 2009-2013 defenses.

rlcarr said:

I haven't seen a single pregame show, either, and will not.

Anyhow, I did run across this factoid online, which does not calm the butterflies:

The Patriots have been held under 21 points 24 times since 2009 (postseason included) and are 6-18.
Since Wilson became the starter in 2012, the Seahawks have been held under 21 points 17 times and are 11-6.

Click to expand...

That's one of those misleading stats, as there are 6 games this year where the Pats WOULD have won even by scoring 20, but because their offense was so good it was a blowout instead. It's one of those stats that actually punishes a team for being good enough to win big.

Awesome thoughts. I'll watch the nbc pregame most likely since I think it's decent with fox. Plus I wanna hear Rodney talk a little.

juny said:

I posted this elsewhere but pats are 12-0 scoring 23+. Seahawks are 1-4 if they give up 23+.

Click to expand...

Didn't Patriots score 23 points against Seattle and loose the game in 2012?

rlcarr said:

I haven't seen a single pregame show, either, and will not.

Anyhow, I did run across this factoid online, which does not calm the butterflies:

The Patriots have been held under 21 points 24 times since 2009 (postseason included) and are 6-18.
Since Wilson became the starter in 2012, the Seahawks have been held under 21 points 17 times and are 11-6.

Click to expand...

Given the quality of the defenses we've had since 2009 up until this year, I'm surprised we won 6 games.

patfanken said:

an old favorite of mine that is perfect ... the short incut from an inside receiver, who then after taking the first 2-3 steps in, breaks it back up the seam again.

Click to expand...

Especially when the TV likes showing Sherman jumping an incut for an INT... made me think something similar...

It was really tough to pick between your analysis and Dikembe's, as to which was the best

But I do agree with you, Ken. I don't think the game will be close at all.

It's all good and well for Carroll to go with a "this is who we are, see if you can beat us," mentality because he does have the talent. But if that talent is beat, or circumvented, he is in big trouble because he has chosen to depend on nothing else.

If there's anyone that can neutralize Carroll's version of the Kiffin 4-3 under, it's BB. I think BB is going to have an answer for the aggressive one-gapping Carroll does. Also Carroll's 3 deep zone has Thomas and Chancellor as its backbone and if either of them is under 100%, it's "system failure," because those two do a lot of the work, and are why that cover is so effective.

I truly believe, in defiance of common sense, that we are going to actually attack one or both of them.

Great post.. will skip all the pregame mediots now.

The greatest difference between this team and the previous 2 SB teams is a vastly improved defense, BB will trust these guys to stop the Seahawks if need be.. which takes a lot of pressure off of #12.

This defensive backfield is a dream come true, BB has abandoned the two way players and Earthwind Morelands types for some excellent football playing athletes...

Also think that McDaniels has gotten older and wiser along with Patricia.. both sides have a lot of mix and match pieces and we are completely unpredictable, but very football intelligent..

Great insightful thoughts, Ken.

A few comments:

1. Offense
While I certainly would love to see a balanced attack when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me to see the opening script with an up tempo 3 wR and Vereen package. Emotions will be at their peak at the beginning and Seattle's quickness and crowd noise (I expect more Seahead fans) will make the run a little more challenging at first IMO and getting out to a fast start would be ideal. Plus, Seattle doesn't vary their scheme much, playing mostly cover 3 with the corners pressing at first but still having responsibility for the deep 3rd. This puts a great deal of responsibility on their linebackers and their nickel for the flat and underneath curls.
You put the ball in Brady's hands and you tell him exactly what you're running on D and I'll bet the smartest QB in football wins more often than not.
I must admit I am biased in that I want to see Brady carry this team and say to the world haters "Go f&!$ yourselves"

2. Defense
Similar to Seattle's defense, their offense is not complex and plays mostly a read option with zone blocking so you know what you're going to get. Chandler and Rob will need to be patient and don't overshoot which will put more pressure on HT and Collins when Lynch gets the ball.
I don't expect the D to stop Wilson and Lynch the whole game so even if Seattle is moving the ball in small chunks, that's ok. The space will become tighter inside the 20 where Chung (he's my X factor) can provide more support. Holding them to FG's is not the worst thing. I see the defense being patient, reading their keys and no big gains.

As for pregame shows, my boy (figuratively) Brooks Koepka is tied for 2nd at the Waste Management event so I'll be focusing on this.
Plus, I'm really going to have a hard time listening to anyone that has already judged the Patriots for the latest events both this day and in the future.

Great article. No pregame shows for me. I won't start watching anything super bowl related until 6:00PM. . Go Pats!

Ken as usual I can't touch your level of analysis. These are always good reads and I am just glad that such a thorough break-down matches up with my completely unreliable and unsubstantiated gut feeling. Of course we don't know until we know...

I am going to be stopping in on PatsFans off and on all day I am sure... I can't think about anything else at this point.

PP, I like your "single-point failure" point, especially as regards Chancellor. But I don't think anybody's banged up significantly enough that that will be the difference. (His knee, Sherman's elbow, whatever). They're healthy enough to go - you have to expect that they'll be close enough to 100% that the single-point failure will be earned, not just served up to us on a silver platter.

It would be good to see an opening drive in which Blount establishes himself and Brady makes hay off a play action. If Blount can run on them when they're fresh... chances look good for the remainder of the game. I look for a mixed script for the first quarter... and if merited - as is likely, given our penchant for slow starts - another whole mix after the half.

Guys on a Ken thread probably don't need to hear this but nobody walk out and take a header off the 10th floor if we're down early... and make sure you tell any casual fan friends. This Pats team plays 60 minutes.

IndianPat said:

Didn't Patriots score 23 points against Seattle and loose the game in 2012?

Click to expand...

Those records were for 2014.