Let's talk football: Brady, Wilson both get to the Super Bowl without enough weapons

Gronk is the best TE in the game and Edelman/Lafell are a decent duo.

Edelman routinely beats #1 CBs and had back to back 100 reception 1,000 yard seasons if he didn't sit out the last week. He's a low end WR1. Lafell is a decent WR2.

Every team can't have Nelson/Cobb or Thomas/Sanders. The Packers/Broncos had no WR3 worth anything the whole year. Adams showed up for the Packers in the playoffs.

This offense put up 80 points in two playoff games against two good defenses. If they enter TC with the same OL + talented rookie and don't play musical chairs with the WR2 spot, we should enter the year strong on offense for once (KT starting in TC/preseason/week 1 hurt Lafell's development).

I just don't see how we have a lack of weapons when this is a top 3 offense and could be the #1 offense next year. No WR depth? Sure. But what team really has any WR depth?

The thirdmost productive receiver on the 2014 Patriots was more productive than the thirdmost on the 2007 Patriots.

The fourthmost productive receiver on the 2014 Patriots had almost identical production to the fourthmost on the 2007 Patriots.

That said, the top 4 receivers in 2007 were all WRs. In 2014 they were 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 RB, raising a suspicion of less overall receiving talent. To examine that suspicion, let's line up the receiving corps by eye tests. Moss/Gronk, Welker/Edelman and Faulk/Vereen are close enough to parity that nobody should say the differences seriously affect overall weapon strength. That leaves Stallworth/Gaffney/Watson vs. LaFell/Amendola/Wright. Again, I'm not seeing a big difference.

A receiving corps in which Amendola and Wright are both starved for targets is not a weak corps.

LightSkinSmurf said:

So again, the patriots or brady didn't have enough weapons to do what? Because they had enough weapons to rank high in the league in offense and they had enough to reach the SB. So what don't they have enough weapons to do? I keep asking this question and you keep dodging it. Your argument makes no sense.

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Don't you understand? They didn't have enough weapons to get to the Super Bowl. Of course, they're playing Sunday, so the premise is, they didn't have enough to be where they actually are.

tasmlab said:

BB built his fame by embracing the middle class of football player.

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I will disagree here. He built his fame by recognizing the class of football player no matter their station. He has had elites (Lawrence Taylor, Tom Brady, Gronk, Bavaro), upper class (Pepper Johnson, Rodney Harrison), tons of middle class, and even strictly special teamers (your blue collar guys) - but over and over he recognized what they could, and more importantly could not, do and kept shaping the game's execution to the teams' balances of strengths.

Where I'll agree is that he's allocated his cap money to that middle class "pay range" instead of overpaying such as at WR, where others pay elite money, and reaped the additional extra "middle class" players he could get for depth at other positions so injuries could be better mitigated.

This isn't an end all, be all observation - exceptions exist of course...but does point to a very savvy manager understanding limitations of both payment system and player/team.

PScottman said:

I will disagree here. He built his fame by recognizing the class of football player no matter their station. He has had elites (Lawrence Taylor, Tom Brady, Gronk, Bavaro), upper class (Pepper Johnson, Rodney Harrison), tons of middle class, and even strictly special teamers (your blue collar guys) - but over and over he recognized what they could, and more importantly could not, do and kept shaping the game's execution to the teams' balances of strengths.

Where I'll agree is that he's allocated his cap money to that middle class "pay range" instead of overpaying such as at WR, where others pay elite money, and reaped the additional extra "middle class" players he could get for depth at other positions so injuries could be better mitigated.

This isn't an end all, be all observation - exceptions exist of course...but does point to a very savvy manager understanding limitations of both payment system and player/team.

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I think that's right on the money.

It's a 53 man roster not just week by week, but in the big moments in big games.

BB is a master of getting the most out of his roster every week. And, maybe someone whose name is rarely mentioned on this Board will make the play that makes the difference on Sunday...it's a painful memory for sure, but a guy who never played another down in the NFL made that catch with Rodney on his back in 2008.

Well, we'll find out in a day or so. But Gronk and Edelman have both been outstanding. LaFell has been good and Amendola, Vereen and Wright have all made useful contributions. The best thing is that they have all seemed to get better as the season continued. If Randy Moss isn't walking through the door, I think that the Patriots are fine.

I've come to believe WR value is overrated. I think when you look at BB's record of never investing 1st round picks in them, you could make the case he believes similar.

People hate fantasy football stats. However there is a lesson in value in FF that most people who play understand. That gross value is less important to the overall team success than value over a substitution. The application of FF players to real players is not the same, but the concept remains the same.

In FF QB's score more points than anyone else typically. So you might think you should draft a QB in the first round. You should not. Because the difference between a top QB and the 10th QB is marginal. You might say the standard deviation is small. There is no reason to get the top guy in the draft, when you could get a guy nearly as good ten picks later.

Running backs on the other hand have more deviation. The difference between the top guy and the tenth is much greater, same for WR's. So those are the guys to pick first.

In real life, I think the difference in impact of a great WR compared to a 10th best WR is not much. Once you look at the team as a whole, and consider a great WR also gets yard and catches that would have simply been made by other players their impact is minimal. So theoretically, Calvin Johnson may get 500 more yards and 30 catches more than a guy that costs half the price. But as a team, they may only get an additional 10 catches and 250 yards per season once you consider QB's would just throw to other players.

In terms of where to invest salary cap, I think teams that look at positions with more overall impact, or more value over an equivalent player will be better built. Another words, it may not be the teams are in the SB despite not investing in top WR talent, but BECAUSE they didn't invest in it, and instead spent elsewhere.

Today's game has the Patriots only keeping 3 WRs even active, which short of makes the point about the weakness at the position. Congrats and appreciation to those few of you who actually took the time to post about the subject instead of the majority who got too bogged down by their homer goggles.

Deus Irae said:

Today's game has the Patriots only keeping 3 WRs even active, which short of makes the point about the weakness at the position. Congrats and appreciation to those few of you who actually took the time to post about the subject instead of the majority who got too bogged down by their homer goggles.

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They do have other receivers, though.

PScottman said:

I will disagree here. He built his fame by recognizing the class of football player no matter their station. He has had elites (Lawrence Taylor, Tom Brady, Gronk, Bavaro), upper class (Pepper Johnson, Rodney Harrison), tons of middle class, and even strictly special teamers (your blue collar guys) - but over and over he recognized what they could, and more importantly could not, do and kept shaping the game's execution to the teams' balances of strengths.

Where I'll agree is that he's allocated his cap money to that middle class "pay range" instead of overpaying such as at WR, where others pay elite money, and reaped the additional extra "middle class" players he could get for depth at other positions so injuries could be better mitigated.

This isn't an end all, be all observation - exceptions exist of course...but does point to a very savvy manager understanding limitations of both payment system and player/team.

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If that's you disagreeing with me, I don't think we have much argument.