What the heck does this "preponderance of evidence" mean ?

Currently I have no reason to think they can meet the preponderance of evidence standard.

Also I would add that though it is defined as 51/49 in legal terms they will probably look to go well beyond that as it looks bad and is bad for business if you punish someone cause you decide there is a slighter chance they were guilty than innocent. I would guess the NFL is going to want at least 1 piece of hard evidence and illustrate realistic opportunity.

They have none of those things at this point as far as i know. 90 seconds is just not enough time. At minimum you probably need at least 3 minutes to do an accurate job which I am sure the Patriots would want.

BobDigital said:

Currently I have no reason to think they can meet the preponderance of evidence standard.

Also I would add they though it is defined as 51/49 in legal terms they will probably look to go well beyond that as it looks bad and is bad for business if you punish someone cause you decide there is a slighter chance they were guilty than innocent. I would guess the NFL is going to want at least 1 piece of hard evidence and illustrate realistic opportunity.

They have none of those things at this point as far as i know. 90 seconds is just not enough time. At minimum you probably need at least 3 minutes to do an accurate job which I am sure the Patriots would want.

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Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of what Goodell has previously stated when he changed the rule back in 2008, and also why he punished Sean Payton with a 1 year suspension for claiming that he didn't know anything about bountygate.

Goodell used the phrase "ignorance is not an excuse," so we'll have to see how this thing shakes out, but I don't have much faith in the process myself.

supafly said:

If there was really a sting operation

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If there was a sting theres no way in hell the ref's wouldn't have air gauges in those balls and exact readings before the games started.

BradyManny said:

It means Goodell gets to do whatever the f**k he wants whether it makes sense or not.

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I don't think Goodell can just totally ride roughshod over them even if he is the decider. There is an appeals process. I think Kraft could press the issue in a court of law if the league acts in a completely arbitrary and capricious manner. NFL also has to be concerned with its brand image and the ever looming threat of losing its anti-trust exemption.

Nitro said:

If there was a sting theres no way in hell the ref's wouldn't have air gauges in those balls and exact readings before the games started.

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I don't think we know one way or the other what they have.

Aside from a very brief statement on Friday afternoon confirming the investigation, they haven't said much of anything.

YOUGOTMOSSED said:

I don't think Goodell can just totally ride roughshod over them even if he is the decider. There is an appeals process. I think Kraft could press the issue in a court of law if the league acts in a completely arbitrary and capricious manner. NFL also has to be concerned with its brand image and the ever looming threat of losing its anti-trust exemption.

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I think the punishment imposed will make a big difference.

If it's just a fine, that may be acceptable under the circumstances, even though the team will still be pissed.

If it's the loss of a mid round draft pick and/or the possibility of a suspension for anyone, you bet they'll be appealing.

supafly said:

Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of what Goodell has previously stated when he changed the rule back in 2008, and also why he punished Sean Payton with a 1 year suspension for claiming that he didn't know anything about bountygate.

Goodell used the phrase "ignorance is not an excuse," so we'll have to see how this thing shakes out, but I don't have much faith in the process myself.

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Ahhh there is a big difference here between this case and ours those.

In this case we KNOW that bountygate happened. There is evidence to back it up and witnesses. Goodell still punished Sean Payton but he could only do that cause he knew bountygate happened.

In this case he would have to do something far different. He would need to punish BB and the organization with; currently as far as i know; no evidence to back it up.

That is a horse of a different color. Heck. That isn't even the same animal.

BobDigital said:

Ahhh there is a big difference here between this case and ours those.

In this case we KNOW that bountygate happened. There is evidence to back it up and witnesses. Goodell still punished Sean Payton but he could only do that cause he knew bountygate happened.

In this case he would have to do something far different. He would need to punish BB and the organization with; currently as far as i know; no evidence to back it up.

That is a horse of a different color. Heck. That isn't even the same animal.

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The fact remains that he used the "ignorance is not an excuse" line once already, when no proof existed that Sean Payton either knew or was behind the scandal, so there's certainly a possibility that he'll use it again.

You also seem to be greatly underestimating some of the issues the Patriots will have to answer to, and while that's terribly, terribly unfortunate (and total ********), it's still a fact.

Goodell may have bought the fact that the ball boy decided to take a detour to the playing field by using the restroom, but he may not buy the combination of that along with the fact that the balls ended up deflated.

Those are the main issues at hand here, and ones that we have no idea how will play out. Only thing we can do is hope for the best.

supafly said:

The fact remains that he used the "ignorance is not an excuse" line once already, when no proof existed that Sean Payton either knew or was behind the scandal, so there's certainly a possibility that he'll use it again.

You also seem to be greatly underestimating some of the issues the Patriots will have to answer to, and while that's terribly, terribly unfortunate (and total ********), it's still a fact.

Goodell may have bought the fact that the ball boy decided to take a detour to the playing field by using the restroom, but he may not buy the combination of that along with the fact that the balls ended up deflated.

Those are the main issues at hand here, and ones that we have no idea how will play out. Only thing we can do is hope for the best.

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With Goodell, ignorance is not an excuse.
It's Standard operating procedure for that guy.

supafly said:

The fact remains that he used the "ignorance is not an excuse" line once already, when no proof existed that Sean Payton either knew or was behind the scandal, so there's certainly a possibility that he'll use it again.

You also seem to be greatly underestimating some of the issues the Patriots will have to answer to, and while that's terribly, terribly unfortunate (and total ********), it's still a fact.

Goodell may have bought the fact that the ball boy decided to take a detour to the playing field by using the restroom, but he may not buy the combination of that along with the fact that the balls ended up deflated. That's the main issue at hand here, and one that we have no idea how will play out.

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Well let me give your points my thoughts 1 by 1.

#1 You say Goodell has already said "ignorance is not an excuse" so he would use it again. That is true. I do not dispute that at all. If the conclusion is the balls were tampered with then BB/Patriots will have to answer for it no matter how much ignorance they claim.

#2 I do not underestimate the issues. I know exactly what they have to answer to. I have the same information you have. However at this point I think going by what I know a punishment is not possible with the amount of evidence.

#3 I just don't think the ball boy going into the bathroom for 90 seconds is enough. Also it is "approximately 90 seconds" We will need to know exactly how much time he had IMO. But lets say exactly 90. Is that enough time to open a bag, take the footballs out of the bag, line em up and deflate them & put them back in the bag? I don't think it is. I don't see how it could be. Remember he would need to be careful not to deflate too much so that it is super obvious and then would have to take time to inflate them again.

The fact that the footballs were under inflated doesn't matter unless the Pats had a reasonable chance to tamper with them some how. If they did not then there is no case. The balls can have 0 PSI but if you can not find a reasonable opportunity it doesn't matter.

That is my take on the matter anyway : P

When I read about the ball boy bathroom detour for only 90 seconds, my mind went into another direction completely. My first thought was that ball boy is efficiently quick. To piss&wash hands or deflate 12 balls in that amount of time is impressive.

Goodell will probably wait until after the superbowl and if people are still complaining he will attempt to appease the masses. If enough scientific videos come out and other celebs downplay this, then and only then will we escape without a scratch. Goodell is a squirmy guy that folds under pressure. The title of commissioner should belong to a strong minded guy. After the ray rice vid came out and he was berated with questions like "why only two games?", I would respect the guy more if he straight up said because I said so.

BobDigital said:

Well let me give your points my thoughts 1 by 1.

#1 You say Goodell has already said "ignorance is not an excuse" so he would use it again. That is true. I do not dispute that at all. If the conclusion is the balls were tampered with then BB/Patriots will have to answer for it no matter how much ignorance they claim.

#2 I do not underestimate the issues. I know exactly what they have to answer to. I have the same information you have. However at this point I think going by what I know a punishment is not possible with the amount of evidence.

#3 I just don't think the ball boy going into the bathroom for 90 seconds is enough. Also it is "approximately 90 seconds" We will need to know exactly how much time he had IMO. But lets say exactly 90. Is that enough time to open a bag, take the footballs out of the bag, line em up and deflate them & put them back in the bag? I don't think it is. I don't see how it could be. Remember he would need to be careful not to deflate too much so that it is super obvious and then would have to take time to inflate them again.

The fact that the footballs were under inflated doesn't matter unless the Pats had a reasonable chance to tamper with them some how. If they did not then there is no case. The balls can have 0 PSI but if you can not find a reasonable opportunity it doesn't matter.

That is my take on the matter anyway : P

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I agree with most of your thinking, however in regards to #3--there are some who claim that the bag is sometimes mesh, so the speculation is that he could possibly have access to every ball immediately through the bag itself, without having to do any of the things that you're speaking of.

Either way, there are going to be plenty of people who will claim that 10 seconds is more than enough time to let air out of a ball, therefore allowing him to do 9-10 balls. We'll have to see how it plays out, but yes--I'm very skeptical with Goodell on the front line.

I highly doubt that they'd have done this whole thing had they not had a lot of questions, particularly at this time of the year. Like I said before, if there really was a sting operation AND both of those "coincidences" happened, the Patriots are going to have their hands full with this 100 percent.

doesntmatter1 said:

To piss&wash hands or deflate 12 balls in that amount of time is impressive.

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Without knowing what the hell he was doing in there, all we'll ever be able to do is speculate. He could've been blowing his nose, popping a zit, wiping something off his face--who knows?

Maybe he was solving world hunger, studying for the bar, or putting in a call to his bookie? The possibilities are endless.

It becomes our concern since the balls ended up deflated though. Had they not found this tape, the case would look much better for the Pats with the "weather" possibility. Now, we have to hope that two different occurrences are believed--even if they really happened.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the "you've done this before ...", will legally reopen Spygate (In Civil Court). The kid who used the bathroom may consider it slander. What was kid's motivation? Was he paid, are you publicly assuming that? Does Brady have Civil legal recourse. What is the NFLPA position. There's load of legal minefields for the NFL in real courts. I think this could be considered a criminal act on the part of the kid. Take criminality from there to "did a third party other than the Pats pay to remove the air" and this becomes horrible. The NFL has to get Kraft to agree, an objection from BB and more likely Brady will make that difficult.

Brady's and BB's Legacy requires we win this. Otherwise, this will become a consideration in Hall of Fame voting. Decency requires Kraft to fight this, all the way. Worse it threatens Brady's status as G.O.A.T..

If the ball boys job was to let lets say 2psi out of balls, than I would assume that he would want to do that well. Now maybe it is possible to do in 90 secs sloppily but to do exact(knowing how particular Brady is...). why not take 3 min? I mean did anyone ever think this was a big deal ? I doubt anyone was really stressed about psi . Of course he would know not to do it in public.

If this wasn't made into a nation sense of "pride" I could see how they could be penalized with the minimum of evidence. But now I think Goodell will want hard evidence. And Kraft made that clear.

Aren't all these "facts" from leaked reports ? The way these reports are surfacing, what gives any of us confidence that it was actually 90 seconds ?

Also, if the Patriots are the ones to give this info and the ones who (supposedly) did something wrong, one would think that you'd need to be borderline insane or very very challenged cognitively to then trot out your qb, coach, and owner to strongly deny wrongdoing.

This has been a weird weird week.

The way I explain this term to juries is, 'more likely true than not true.'

YOUGOTMOSSED said:

I think Kraft could press the issue in a court of law if the league acts in a completely arbitrary and capricious manner.

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All the teams have signed contracts agreeing not to sue the league (or each other).

farn said:

Aren't all these "facts" from leaked reports ? The way these reports are surfacing, what gives any of us confidence that it was actually 90 seconds ?

Also, if the Patriots are the ones to give this info and the ones who (supposedly) did something wrong, one would think that you'd need to be borderline insane or very very challenged cognitively to then trot out your qb, coach, and owner to strongly deny wrongdoing.

This has been a weird weird week.

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Personally, I'm not inclined to believe a single shred of "evidence" leaked by an unnamed source. I mean who the heck does this guy think he is, Deep Throat? But this won't stop me from dismantling some existing theories based on these leaks and showing why these would be inconclusive even if true. I imagine when the report finally surfaces, it will be very different from what everyone expects. I just hope it isn't horribly biased.

supafly said:

Exactly...think civil cases--like you said, where a 51/49 percentage of agreement is enough to find "guilt" or award money.

It's pretty much the opposite of what the majority here think when they claim "they'll have to have solid evidence."

If there was really a sting operation, our team is screwed. It's already going to be hard enough explaining why the ball boy suddenly decided to go into an illegal area (coincidence #1) prior to the field, when you take into account the fact the balls ended up under inflated or deflated (coincidence #2).

If the NFL was seriously "watching" them due to already having questions and these coincidental events both took place, it will look very, very bad for us. It still may not be enough to justify a suspension for anyone though, and at this point that's all that really matters. I think it's highly unlikely that we get exonerated, so the court of public opinion has already had their say, and that sucks.

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I agree, which is why I don't think the Patriots will be fully exonerated and, even if the numbers can be flushed out using science, the league will have enough with the bathroom video and the psi measurements to penalize the Patriots.

That's why I think the Patriots response to any penalty is so incredibly important. If they are in fact innocent of any wrongdoing--and I think we're all in agreement after BB's Saturday presser--they need to come out swinging if the report finds them to be guilty of deflating footballs.

Publish the study they did on the footballs, use the pre-game and mid-game psi measurements (if they were even documented) to prove beyond any doubt that science explains the entire difference. It may not exonerate them in the leagues eyes but that evidence could at least be used to beat off the haters, just link the study every single time someone calls the Patriots cheaters.

Anyway, getting ahead of myself...using a 51/49 standard makes sense, it totally does; ignoring science does not.