Neil deGrasse Tyson - Admits Mea Culpa -While Still Not Quite Getting it Right

Danger Zone · Jan 27, 2015

Neil deGrasse Tyson ‏@neiltyson Jan 26
For the Patriots to blame a change in temperature for 15% lower-pressures, requires balls to be inflated with 125-degree air.

Since tweeting this, Tyson has written a correction to his math on his Facebook page.

https://www.facebook.com/notes/neil-degrasse-tyson/deflategate/10153074004496613

My calculation used the well-known gas formula that relates pressure to temperature within a fixed volume. Quite simply, the two quantities are directly and linearly related. e.g. Halve the temperature, you've halved the pressure. Triple the temperature, you've tripled the pressure.

Shortly afterwards, many of my physics-fluent twitter followers, as well as others in the blogosphere, were quick to point out that in my calculation I neglected to account for the fact that the football pressures were "gauge" pressures (as would be the pressures measured in any ball on Earth) rather than "absolute" pressures. And the calculation that I performed applies only to absolute pressures -- which reference the case where the football pressure is measured in the vacuum of space, without the effects of atmospheric pressure on the measurement. Using the (correct) gauge pressure in the calculation reduces the needed inflation temperature to about 90-degrees for that effect.

This is simply an oversight on my part, and I'm glad so many stepped forward to correct it. But what it means is that the Patriots would simply need to have inflated the balls with (more accessible) 90 degree air rather than 125 degree air. A delightfully moot point since neither temperature absolves the NE Patriots even as we all know that the NE Patriots, in their 45 to 7 victory over the Colts, would have won the game no matter the ball pressure. And, as far as I am concerned, the Patriots would have won that game even in the vacuum of space.

As Always, Keep Looking up.

-Neil deGrasse Tyson, Chicago

I was pretty excited to see this, but after re-reading it to the end this time, I'm not sure what to make of it. Seems like his calculations still aren't meshing with other experts in the field.

Hoodie · Jan 27, 2015

not exactly the mea culpa I was hoping for.

BobDigital · Jan 27, 2015

Well scientist are wrong sometimes. At least he owns up when he finds he made a mistake. That is what separates good scientist with bad scientist. Willingness to go with the best evidence possible even if it conflicts with initial findings or preconceived notions.

However still made a mistake in not adjusting for the rain. I would hope he post another amendment if that is brought to his attention. Also if the PSI different is closer to 1 than 2 which some reports say it puts it even more in line of natural deflation.

Michael · Jan 27, 2015

But he's still the media darling.

patsfan13 · Jan 27, 2015

He getting hammered and is walking back his mistake. He is still a media whore.

BradyFTW! · Jan 27, 2015

Now maybe someone will point out to him that nobody ever claimed that the temperature was responsible for a 2psi drop. Belichick certainly didn't.

Basically, he's admitting that he's wrong while simultaneously raging against a straw man and doubling down on the smugness. Frankly, this kinda makes him look even worse.

Haley · Jan 27, 2015

I must have made a mistake too with my lookalike post of him.

Oh, well. I guess that's an oversight on my part.

Observer · Jan 27, 2015

Well some respect has been restored. He should have mentioned many other factors such as leather stretch etc. that could account for it. As a scientist, you look for any possible natural cause before accusing someone of a crime. So even though he said that the Patriots would have beaten the colts anytime anywhere, he is still being an ass. I don't want to watch any of his shows any more.

Rob0729 · Jan 27, 2015

I heard somewhere that air coming through an air pump or air compressor is a lot hotter than the air temperature.

Mack Herron · Jan 27, 2015

It is easy to admit an error that does not change your conclusion:

But what it means is that the Patriots would simply need to have inflated the balls with (more accessible) 90 degree air rather than 125 degree air. A delightfully moot point since neither temperature absolves the NE Patriots

So how does this calculation differ from those that claim the temp difference could cause a 1 PSI decrease? Personally, I prefer to wait for the NFL to release actual facts about what they did and what they have. The burden of proof is on the NFL, but what they will eventually say is: " despite an unexplained decline in ball pressure, we were not able to establish definitively that the NE Patriots deliberately violated the rules."

TBR · Jan 27, 2015

His claim never made much sense to me. Obviously I'm no scientist but..

Just look at the several experiment videos posted online by various other scientists. They all show a drop of at least 1 PSI when exposed to a similar weather change that the Patriots footballs would've went through. And I highly doubt any of those people in the videos used 125 degree hot air to fill the balls.

shmessy · Jan 27, 2015

He is STILL wrong - - but at least he corrected 1 of his 2 mistakes:

If someone has Twitter or Facebook, can you please contact the good doctor and inform him that THIS scientifically challenged idiot (I) appreciates his correcting his science, ****BUT he now needs to correct his MATH:

When he states the 15% lower pressure number (actually 14.815% rounded up to 15%) in his tweet, he is FALSELY employing the HIGH end of the NFL legal range on football pressure - - 13.5 Psi.

The low end of the legal is 12.5.

As most recently reported/leaked, 10 of the 11 halftime Patriot footballs were measured at 11.5 PSi.

That means they were exactly (not rounded) 8% below legal range - - NOT 15%

Dr. Tyson, you have more calculating to do if you want to give us a correct reading. I would be interested to know what input temperature would produce an 8% decrease in PSi.

Thank you.

Sciz · Jan 27, 2015

As I explained this on an NFL-wide football forum yesterday:

"For the Patriots to blame a change in temperature for 15% lower-pressures, requires balls to be inflated with 125-degree air."
-Neil deGrasse Tyson

"I'm blaming the 15% lower pressures only on temperature."
-Nobody

Ned Stark · Jan 27, 2015

I think the fact that the conditions were wet is a factor, correct? I'm not a big science guy so this is an honest question.

Observer · Jan 27, 2015

shmessy said:
If someone has Twitter or Facebook, can you please contact the good doctor and inform him that THIS scientifically challenged idiot (I) appreciate his correcting his science, BUT he now needs to correct his math:

When he used the 15% lower pressure number (actually 14.815% rounded up to 15%) in his tweet, he was FALSELY employing the HIGH end of the NFL legal range on football pressure - - 13.5 Psi.

The low end of the legal is 12.5.

As most recently reported/leaked, 10 of the 11 Patriot footballs were measured at the half at 11.5 PSi.

That means they were exactly (not rounded) 8% below legal range.

Dr, Tyson, you have more calculating to do if you want to give us a correct reading.

Thank you.

On his facebook he has corrected that, and come to the conclusion that you would need 90 degree air which agrees with what I got back of the envelope. But then the fool had to say that it doesn't absolve the patriots instead of saying there could be other factors such as gauge accuracy, leather deformation, etc which could account for it.
To his credit he did say it's all moot because the pats would have beaten the colts even in outer space.

Bobsyouruncle · Jan 27, 2015

BobDigital said:
Well scientist are wrong sometimes. At least he owns up when he finds he made a mistake. That is what separates good scientist with bad scientist. Willingness to go with the best evidence possible even if it conflicts with initial findings or preconceived notions.

However still made a mistake in not adjusting for the rain. I would hope he post another amendment if that is brought to his attention. Also if the PSI different is closer to 1 than 2 which some reports say it puts it even more in line of natural deflation.

There's a little more to being a good scientist then admitting when your wrong, sometimes you have to come up with the correct answer. And he's hardly going with the best evidence. He makes a broad proclamation based on the calculation of one variable. A variable he screwed up calculating. But he makes the same broad proclamation again.

I guess it's good he made the correction, but at this rate I'll be an old man and he'll be on correction 146 before he gets it right.

patsfan13 · Jan 27, 2015

Rob0729 said:
I heard somewhere that air coming through an air pump or air compressor is a lot hotter than the air temperature.

This is correct however sue to the tiny mass of the air inserted into the ball this effect will be masked by the heat capacity of the solids in the bladder and ball leather.

patsfan13 · Jan 27, 2015

Observer said:
On his facebook he has corrected that, and come to the conclusion that you would need 90 degree air which agrees with what I got back of the envelope. But then the fool had to say that it doesn't absolve the patriots instead of saying there could be other factors such as gauge accuracy, leather deformation, etc which could account for it.
To his credit he did say it's all moot because the pats would have beaten the colts even in outer space.

He is still wrong then. he is taking the absolute pressure into effect, what a moron. You have to inclde the air pressure in the calculation. Hrd to believe he has a PHD in physics frankly.

turkeyneck · Jan 27, 2015

He's still got it fouled up. Hey, Neil, "show your work" as they say in the classroom. You've gotten too comfortable arm-waving your way through Manhattan high society.

Danger Zone · Jan 27, 2015

Bill Nye also has made a follow up to his original interview on Good Morning America.

Bill Nye @TheScienceGuy · 2h2 hours ago
I address "deflategate" one last time with the help of my friends @funnyordie. http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/3d0c94936c/bill-nye-addresses-deflategate…

I hope to god this is a parody of sorts and not an actual followup or rebuttal to.. anything at all.

I have to say that having gotten an unexpected peak behind the curtain at these two, I'm pretty disappointed in how unlike they are what I would have hoped to find.

Neil deGrasse Tyson - Admits Mea Culpa -While Still Not Quite Getting it Right

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