I respect the analysis but the suggested conclusion is infuriating and incomplete.
Here are the damning league rankings for the Patriots in terms of fumbles:
Code:
2003 14
2004 13
2005 12
2006 22
2007 1
2008 4
2009 4
2010 1
2011 4
2012 5
2013 24
2014 2
Clear evidence the Pats were using under-inflated footballs in every year since 2006. (Excepting 2013, when they inexplicably forgot to do so.)
Here are the unincriminating league rankings for the Colts in terms of fumbles:
Code:
2003 19
2004 4
2005 1
2006 2
2007 2
2008 2
2009 1
2010 4
2011 23
2012 14
2013 4
2014 31
In 7 of the last 8 years, the Pats put together an incredible run of rarely putting the ball on the turf. In the 7 years between 2004 and 2010, the Colts put together a similar, and more consistent run of never coughing the ball up. That both streaks coincide with both offenses running spread-out passing systems with elite QBs with famously quick releases and read progression is a meaningless correlation.
The implication that fumbles go up when you put in a bad QB (Indy 2011, Curtis Painter) or supply your QB with sub-standard WRs (NE 2013) is also a figment of your imagination.
What actually happened in 2013 is the Colts stole the Pats illegal footballs before the season and substituted their own rock-hard fumble-prone footballs in their place. The Pats detected the ruse this offseason and stole the rigged balls back.