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manxman2601

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This is my early version of trying to apply value to prospects I like that I feel are good Patriot fits and where I would draft them. Part of that is based upon how I think they'd be valued by the Patriots/NFL. As with Mayo, this is a limited board and is only version 1.o. For now my 'scouting' has been very targeted and there are plenty of prospects I've yet to watch. After the SB, I hope to really attack watching prospects and hope to update this BB on a weekly basis. There will be additions, redactions and changes in position still to come.

Anyway, here it is. I'd love to know what you think:

Big Board (25th Jan, 2015)


Tier 1 (Worth a trade up in first)


1. Dante Fowler Jr, EDGE, Florida
2. TJ Clemmings, OL, Pittsburgh
3. Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa

I’m discounting prospects that I feel have no chance falling to us. It’s unlikely that I’d consider using more than a 3rd to trade up and I’d feel uncomfortable using a 2nd.

I feel Dante Fowler is the perfect fit for our defensive system, hence his inclusion at the top of the list. It’s unlikely he falls within range but he’s too ideal to ignore. Clemmings, despite his poor Senior Bowl is still one of my top prospects as a potentially elite OG and a potential future LT. Brandon Scherff will be an elite OG.


Tier 2 (First Round)

4. Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
5. La’el Collins, OL, LSU

As someone who could be a potentially dominant OG, Collins falls just behind Clemmings and Scherff. Whilst I don’t think Dupree will be a true Edge rusher, his elite athleticism makes him a very intriguing chess piece that could be used at DE, OLB and even ILB at times.



Tier 3 (Top 40)

6. Cameron Erving, OL, FSU
7. Carl Davis, DL, Iowa
8. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
9. Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn

these are prospects that I’d rather draft by trading back but I’m comfortable picking them at 32 if necessary.

I think Erving would make an excellent LG, he’s a tremendous run blocker and he also offers versatility at OT and OC. Maybe not the most exciting pick but an excellent value one. Carl Davis was my first round pick in my very first mock. At the time I thought he had the strength to be a potentially dominant DT. He’s been inconsistent this year and hadn’t flashed much threat to the QB and so he dropped off my radar. The Senior Bowl, however, reminded me why I liked him so much in the first place. I’d consider him a definite upgrade on Alan Branch (who I like) and a great long-term partner for Easley. Fits the 5-2 and sub 4-2 perfectly. Hurley and Coates are here because whilst I have questions about the floor, both have top 5 in the draft, best in the NFL upside and I find that hard to resist.


Tier 4 (Top 50)

1
0. Owamagbe Odhigizuwa, DL, UCLA
11. Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana
12. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
13. Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

These are prospects I’d draft by trading up from 64 and would be happy to do so. I’d far rather they were our second pick in the draft rather than the first.

Rightly or wrongly, I place a great deal of emphasis on a DE that can defend the run whilst generating some pass rush but that can then kick inside and be a definite threat to the QB. Obdighizuwa is my favourite prospect at providing just that. To me, Coleman is a potential franchise RB that combines the ability to run inside and over people but also the threat to break one big on a regular basis. Max Williams might not be much of an inline threat (although he can be played there) and he’s not an outstanding athlete but he has outstanding hands and isn’t just a threat down the seam. He’d be a terrific compliment to Gronk and would be a reasonable back up in Gronk’s absence.


Tier 5 (2nd Round Pick)

14. Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon
15. Jeremiah Poutasi, OL, Utah
16. Eddie Goldman, DL, FSU
17. Preston Smith, DL, Mississippi State
18. Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
19. Paul Dawson, LB, TCU

A step behind Jake Long in terms of strength and athleticism, Jake Fisher is very much in Long’s mould as an athletic OG prospect that excels at getting to the 2nd level. But where Fisher has value to me is as value insurance against Solder not re-signing. Poutasi is a huge body with good enough movement skills to play LG. Goldman reminds me of Timmy Jernigan and I like that value at the end of the second round. I’m not convinced he offers enough all round skills to go higher (although I might move him up a notch) and Smith and Armsted are in the Obdighizuwa mould as outside DEs that can shift inside in sub packages. Dawson is Mayo mkII and would be a great replacement should Mayo be moved on.


Tier 6 (3rd Round)

20. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska
21. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
22. Jacquiski Tartt, SS, Samford
23. Marcus Hardison, DL, Arizona State
24. David Johnson, RB, N. Iowa
25. Hauoli Kikaha, EDGE, Washington
26. Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke
27. Eric Rowe, CB/FS, Utah
28. Duke Johnson, RB, Miami
29. TJ Yeldon, RB, Alabama


Because he’s not an every down runner, I can’t put Abdullah any higher than this, despite how much I think he excels at what he does do. Both Abdullah and Smith are just that, limited in some areas but outstanding at what they do well. Both could be real offensive weapons in limited roles. Tartt is only on here because I wonder how much BB plans to duplicate what Seattle does on defense. If he’s planning a like for like defense then Tartt is an excellent Kam Chancellor type. On admittedly limited viewing, I think Tartt is too limited a coverage safety to be worth this high a pick however. Harrison might be as quick as Easley at the snap and pressures interior linemen from the snap. However, for now, he’s limited at what he does post-snap playing the 3-tech because he primarily played outside at Arizona State. I do think as a one gapping 5-tech, 3-tech and a base LDE Harrison has real upside and will be one of the combine stars.


Tier 7 ( Early Day 3)


30. Ladarious Gunter, CB, Miami
31. Quinten Rollins, CB, Miami (OH)
32. Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary
33. Lynden Trail, DE/OLB/TE, Norfolk State
34. Jamil Douglas, OL, Arizona State
35. Nick Marshall, CB, Auburn
36. Grady Jarrett, DL, Clemson
37. John Miller, OG, Louisville
38. Clive Walford, TE, Miami
39. Corey Crawford, DE, Clemson
40. Anthony Chickillo, DL, Miami
41. Josh Shaw, CB, USC
42. Zach Hodges, LB, Harvard
43. David Cobb, RB, Minnesota


Tier 8 (Solid Day 3)

44.Shaq Mason, OG, Georgia Tech
45. Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart
46. Tony Lippett, WR/CB, Michigan St.
47. Mario Edwards, DL, Florida State
48. Donovan Smith, OL, Penn State
49. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech
50. Terry Williams, DT, E. Carolina
51. Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
52. Steven Nelson, CB, Oregon State
53. Darrian Miller, OL, Kentucky
54. BJ Finney, OL, Kansas State
55. Max Garcia, OL, Florida
56. Adrian Amos, FS, Penn State
57. Jean Sifrin, TE, UMass
58. Maurice Falls, OLB, E. Carolina
59. Ben Heeney, LB, Kansas
60. Antwan Goodley, WR, Baylor
61. Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DL, Southern Mississippi

Tier 9 (Borderline Draftable/UDFA)

62. Ryan Delaire, EDGE, Towson
63. Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma
64. Jeff Luc, LB, Cincinnati
65. Cassius Sendish, FS, Kansas
66. Tyler Varga, RB, Yale
67. Thurston Armbrister, LB, Florida
68. Rannell Hall, WR, UCF
69. Dezmin Lewis, WR, Central Arkansas
70. Donald Celiscar, CB, Western Michigan
71. Zach Zenner, RB, S. Dakota St.
72. Damarious Randall, FS, Arizona State
73. Deon Long, WR, Maryland
74. Quatshawne Buckley, DL, Idaho
75. Andrae Kirk, LB, Florida Atlantic
76. Andre Monroe, DL, Maryland
77. Leon Orr, DL, Florida
78. Mike Reilly, DL, William & Mary



Note


Because we’re still waiting to see what is happening with McCourty and Revis, I’ve stayed away from early DB consideration because if both re-sign, I don’t see the need to draft one during the first two days.

Some notables I’ve yet to watch or form an opinion on:

Jordan Phillips
Devin Funchess
Melvin Gordon
Shaq Thompson
Max Valles
Danielle Hunter
Eli Harold
Jeff Heuerman
Tyler Kroft

Among others...
 
Great job on this!

Except for Collins, who I am not a fan of, I think your list is very similar to mine.
 
Your top 3 are the guys I can see us having a desire to move up for. Of the 3, Fowler is probably the only guy who could fall to a draft position that we could probably afford. I also think he would have the most seamless transition, with possibly the highest upside in year one.
 
Actually I think Scherff might be that guy.
 
What about guys like aj cann. Clive walford, Eli harold.
 
What about guys like aj cann. Clive walford, Eli harold.


Walford is there in tier 7, Harold is mentioned at the end as someone I haven't watched yet and the same applies to Cann who I haven't got round too.
 
On the main board, I just posted a thread about the Patriots have the second best 'farm team' in the NFL. Part of this pipeline is the fact that Gronk is still only 25. Can Gurley be the next 'Gronk'? He's a top 10 draft talent, perhaps top 5 and he won't be 21 until just before training camp starts. Think about that. In four years time, Gurley will still be under 25. Since 1970, there have only been four RBs of Gurley's size and age drafted: Le'veon Bell, Beanie Wells, Steven Jackson and Rashaan Salaam.

I get the arguments against drafting a RB so high, particularly for our offence and I understand there are more important spots to be filled but Gurley is arguably the Gronk of RBs and we didn't go wrong drafting Gronk.

Anyway, that's why I have him so high on my big board.
 
For me he's the clear cut pick atm for Patriots, even a small trade up if need. Have to move a head of Colts / Ravens WHO also needs a RB.
 
Based off of your big board...woldn't mind if our draft went something like this:

1 - Carl Davis (DT)
2 - Preston Smith (OLB/DT)
3 - Jacquiski Tartt (SS)
3 - David Johnson (RB)
4 - Clive Walford (TE)
4 - John Miller (OG)
6 - Stephone Anthony (LB)
7 - Rannell Hall (WR)
7 - Some O-Lineman
 
This is my early version of trying to apply value to prospects I like that I feel are good Patriot fits and where I would draft them. Part of that is based upon how I think they'd be valued by the Patriots/NFL. As with Mayo, this is a limited board and is only version 1.o. For now my 'scouting' has been very targeted and there are plenty of prospects I've yet to watch. After the SB, I hope to really attack watching prospects and hope to update this BB on a weekly basis. There will be additions, redactions and changes in position still to come.

What a awesome post Manx. I was thinking about doing something like this of my own, however after coming across this, i really don't feel the need to. Our opinions and value ratings on players are very very similar. It would only be a waste of my time.

With that being said, Im going to wait till after this weekend, before I truly asses where we should draft a OL player and possibly a pass rusher this coming draft. Im praying Jones finally shows up, and am just as eager to see how Brady's line hold's up. I was reading about the team's line backers and how they are so versatile, and getting better by the day. The Jamie Collins pick was probably our best pick since Gronk. He is clearly Belichick's top Swiss army knife. His versatility is unbelievable! The potential, which Belichick is able to harness and use from these extremely, naturally talented players is a privilege to watch.

This is why I bring up Shaq Thompson. Although I personally doubt he will be available when we are up to draft, some people seem to think he might actually fall out of the first round. I know he's a really hyped player, and is more then likely out of our reach. Especially if he shows up at the combine 6'2 235, and running a 4.4 like he said he's aiming for.

I can't get over the thought of what Belichick would be able to do with this guy. He's basically a more physically elite Kam Chancellor. He has experience at Safety, OLB, and RB. He defiantly has the physical ability to play the SS position on our team. If that wasn't important in the game plan, you could shift into a 3-4 front and use his as a pass rusher, or drop him into any form of coverage. His versatility would allow our defense to switch things up in unbelievably beautiful way's. Opposing offensives wouldn't have a clue what to game plan for.

When you read his profile, he's a very hard worker, a true athlete. He has been since his high school days. He's also very young and would only be 25 by the time his rookie contract is up. Zero off field concerns! I think the value the team would seek to gain, basically a Elite SS candidate, a coverage LB, and pass rusher. Who knows, maybe you can carry one less RB? This would far outweigh a guard in the first. I know it's not our #1 need, but when you think about it, this guy is Belichick Gold! Maybe we can get lucky!
 
On the main board, I just posted a thread about the Patriots have the second best 'farm team' in the NFL. Part of this pipeline is the fact that Gronk is still only 25. Can Gurley be the next 'Gronk'? He's a top 10 draft talent, perhaps top 5 and he won't be 21 until just before training camp starts. Think about that. In four years time, Gurley will still be under 25. Since 1970, there have only been four RBs of Gurley's size and age drafted: Le'veon Bell, Beanie Wells, Steven Jackson and Rashaan Salaam.

I get the arguments against drafting a RB so high, particularly for our offence and I understand there are more important spots to be filled but Gurley is arguably the Gronk of RBs and we didn't go wrong drafting Gronk.

Anyway, that's why I have him so high on my big board.

I only I think this is something the team would consider if Marshawn were to run all over them this coming Sunday.
 
On the main board, I just posted a thread about the Patriots have the second best 'farm team' in the NFL. Part of this pipeline is the fact that Gronk is still only 25. Can Gurley be the next 'Gronk'? He's a top 10 draft talent, perhaps top 5 and he won't be 21 until just before training camp starts. Think about that. In four years time, Gurley will still be under 25. Since 1970, there have only been four RBs of Gurley's size and age drafted: Le'veon Bell, Beanie Wells, Steven Jackson and Rashaan Salaam.

I get the arguments against drafting a RB so high, particularly for our offence and I understand there are more important spots to be filled but Gurley is arguably the Gronk of RBs and we didn't go wrong drafting Gronk.

Anyway, that's why I have him so high on my big board.

I would love to get gurley. I'm hoping he lasts to our second pick but I doubt it. I haven't seen him catch the ball, but if he does it decently well then id probably love him even more as a prospect. I really think he can have a lynch or leveon bell type of affect for this team.

What a awesome post Manx. I was thinking about doing something like this of my own, however after coming across this, i really don't feel the need to. Our opinions and value ratings on players are very very similar. It would only be a waste of my time.

With that being said, Im going to wait till after this weekend, before I truly asses where we should draft a OL player and possibly a pass rusher this coming draft. Im praying Jones finally shows up, and am just as eager to see how Brady's line hold's up. I was reading about the team's line backers and how they are so versatile, and getting better by the day. The Jamie Collins pick was probably our best pick since Gronk. He is clearly Belichick's top Swiss army knife. His versatility is unbelievable! The potential, which Belichick is able to harness and use from these extremely, naturally talented players is a privilege to watch.

This is why I bring up Shaq Thompson. Although I personally doubt he will be available when we are up to draft, some people seem to think he might actually fall out of the first round. I know he's a really hyped player, and is more then likely out of our reach. Especially if he shows up at the combine 6'2 235, and running a 4.4 like he said he's aiming for.

I can't get over the thought of what Belichick would be able to do with this guy. He's basically a more physically elite Kam Chancellor. He has experience at Safety, OLB, and RB. He defiantly has the physical ability to play the SS position on our team. If that wasn't important in the game plan, you could shift into a 3-4 front and use his as a pass rusher, or drop him into any form of coverage. His versatility would allow our defense to switch things up in unbelievably beautiful way's. Opposing offensives wouldn't have a clue what to game plan for.

When you read his profile, he's a very hard worker, a true athlete. He has been since his high school days. He's also very young and would only be 25 by the time his rookie contract is up. Zero off field concerns! I think the value the team would seek to gain, basically a Elite SS candidate, a coverage LB, and pass rusher. Who knows, maybe you can carry one less RB? This would far outweigh a guard in the first. I know it's not our #1 need, but when you think about it, this guy is Belichick Gold! Maybe we can get lucky!

I see what your saying and I love him as a prospect. But if a DT is there like Malcolm brown or Danny shelton( doubt he's there at all) i don't think the need is there.
 
What a awesome post Manx. I was thinking about doing something like this of my own, however after coming across this, i really don't feel the need to. Our opinions and value ratings on players are very very similar. It would only be a waste of my time.

With that being said, Im going to wait till after this weekend, before I truly asses where we should draft a OL player and possibly a pass rusher this coming draft. Im praying Jones finally shows up, and am just as eager to see how Brady's line hold's up. I was reading about the team's line backers and how they are so versatile, and getting better by the day. The Jamie Collins pick was probably our best pick since Gronk. He is clearly Belichick's top Swiss army knife. His versatility is unbelievable! The potential, which Belichick is able to harness and use from these extremely, naturally talented players is a privilege to watch.

This is why I bring up Shaq Thompson. Although I personally doubt he will be available when we are up to draft, some people seem to think he might actually fall out of the first round. I know he's a really hyped player, and is more then likely out of our reach. Especially if he shows up at the combine 6'2 235, and running a 4.4 like he said he's aiming for.

I can't get over the thought of what Belichick would be able to do with this guy. He's basically a more physically elite Kam Chancellor. He has experience at Safety, OLB, and RB. He defiantly has the physical ability to play the SS position on our team. If that wasn't important in the game plan, you could shift into a 3-4 front and use his as a pass rusher, or drop him into any form of coverage. His versatility would allow our defense to switch things up in unbelievably beautiful way's. Opposing offensives wouldn't have a clue what to game plan for.

When you read his profile, he's a very hard worker, a true athlete. He has been since his high school days. He's also very young and would only be 25 by the time his rookie contract is up. Zero off field concerns! I think the value the team would seek to gain, basically a Elite SS candidate, a coverage LB, and pass rusher. Who knows, maybe you can carry one less RB? This would far outweigh a guard in the first. I know it's not our #1 need, but when you think about it, this guy is Belichick Gold! Maybe we can get lucky!


Thanks for the kind words. If you want to add your version to this thread, or start one of your own then I say go for it, it's always good to see how others view the draft.

As for Thompson, it's funny because I was a big fan of drafting Shazier in the first round last year because I was looking for someone to play a S/LB hybrid. I also had Kevin Pierre- Louis in mind for the same role. But I haven't really considered Shaq Thompson in the same way. I think it's mainly because I just don't see him getting regular snaps in our defense. I think it's mainly because we play so much sub that there's only space for two linebackers at any one time and not forgetting there's Mayo to bring in too. I think the issue for me is that a first rounder on someone who'll be limited in the number of snaps, is a little rich. In terms of the Chancellor role, which is intriguing, why not play Collins there. Have Hightower and Mayo as your two sub linebackers with Collins just behind them playing the Chancellor role. That would allow you to move Collins all over the place: Drop him back as a safety, move him up into the box, move to the edge as a blitzer, use him as a spy. It would allow us to use our most potent weapon in the position opposing coaches would be least likely to be able to plan for him.
 
One guy I was hoping would last until day three, but I'm afraid the cat is out the bag on him and he will be taken earlier on day two is Quinten Rollins. One year of football and earned MAC defensive player of the year. Thats a high ceiling prospect with room to grow if there ever was one.
 
Manx,
I really like how you set up your board and your explanations for each tier. I wasn't sure how I wanted to present my big board, but I might steal your model and do it this way if you don't mind.

There are a lot of names on that list that you and I agree about.
I think you and I are in the same boat with Rollins, but from what I am hearing, if he runs well at the combine, he could go in the 1st.
I am not as high on Eddie Goldman as you, but that is nitpicking.

Once again, great job!
 
Manx,
I really like how you set up your board and your explanations for each tier. I wasn't sure how I wanted to present my big board, but I might steal your model and do it this way if you don't mind.

There are a lot of names on that list that you and I agree about.
I think you and I are in the same boat with Rollins, but from what I am hearing, if he runs well at the combine, he could go in the 1st.
I am not as high on Eddie Goldman as you, but that is nitpicking.

Once again, great job!


Thanks. Copy as much as you like.

I think Quinten Rollins is going to be an excellent cover-2 corner, I'd be tempted to take him in the first if I were in charge of such a team. I'm less convinced of his value to us playing press. Might be better as a safety on our defense.
 
There's been an article today talking about how much of a fan and friend Belichick is of Arizona State HC Todd Geaham today.

Even better, Belichick said he personally takes scouting trips to Tempe just to visit with Graham, often relegating his underlings elsewhere. They share a defensive background and the pursuit of excellence, and an ASU representative said they talk on the phone all the time.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...riots-belichick-big-fan-asus-graham/22436601/

This interests me because I've been bullish about three ASU prospects this year: Hardison, Jamil Douglas and DJ Foster who didn't declare. Could this be the start of a new pipeline? I'm hoping so.
 
I might not have been a member of the forum during the 2014 draft, but I loved Shazier! I really did as a fit for the patriots. Im not lying when I said I felt he needed to go to a team where he could be a excellent compliment LB/hybrid player. I knew if he was drafted by a team where he was expected to carry a heavy load he would have a tuff time. This is where Pittsburgh should have taken CJ Mosley, he was better suited for the job. Shazier would have better off if he would have went to a team later in the draft. I feel the same about Shaq Thompson. A team like the patriots, with a creative coach who isn't afraid to try new thing's and think outside of the box.

Just try to imagine a play where Thompson is in at SS, and Collins is in at outside linebacker. Thompson Blitzes and collins drops back into his zone coverage and plays the zone or player Thompson was supposed to be covering. That is only the very tip of the creativity that is possible. Both of these players are athletic enough to combine for some insanely creative coverage, and blitz packages.

I love Mayo, I really do! I would really like him to be a patriot for life. Sadly the truth is he needs to take a pay cut. If he can go down to the 5 million a year range, then it should be taken into consideration. I feel like he could be out next Bruschi, but he needs to be respectful, like Bruschi was when it came to his salary, and his consideration and understanding of the salary cap, and what it takes to win championships. Like I said, sadly for Mayo, this involves taking a pay cut.

You said Jamie Collins "allow's us to use our most potent weapon in the position opposing coaches would be least likely to be able to plan for him" Well I feel like Thompson may be able to play a similar type of role. There is no such thing as a perfect linebacker. Its two broad of a range. This is where having two players, one who's more like your typical linebacker (6,3 250, 4.6 40) but can play man and zone coverage with success to the point where he is not a liability (Collins) Not to mention be a quick successful rusher when asked. Then having a SS who can also play a true LB role without being a liability, yet play the SS position with great success. Like Kam does, but even better because he is much more athletic, and thats saying a lot because Kam is extremely athletic. This is what Thompson brings to the plate.

Were going to have to wait and see what happens Sunday. If the line holds up fairly well, should we wait to the 2nd -4th rounds to draft a player? Maybe take wait and take another Red shirt rookie like Cedric Ogbuehi? I still tend to lean towards the notion that you have a better chance of finding a O-line gem in the mid rounds, then you have finding a elite athlete, who can be a universal pro-bowl playmaker in the same later rounds 3rd - 7th.

Another lingering question will be, what happens with Vince Wilfork if we win on Sunday? Does he retire? (kind of hoping this is the case) Do we imminently draft a big plug NT early like Phillips, or Malcom Brown? As sad as it is to say, if Wilfork does choose to stick around, its going to have to come at the expense of his own pocket. He had a "ok" year by many standards. He did what he was asked to do (plug holes) and did it with decent success. However he is no longer the extremely large, extremely athletic, extremely disruptive player he once use to be. When you consider his 8 million a year salary, and the fact that this coming years FA class has several large bodied NT (B.J. Raji anyone?) who can play up to the similar standards as Vince in 14, for a much cheaper price. You have to wonder what the team will do.

I don't know, some of you might call me crazy, but Id rather take that 8 million of of Wilforks salary, and use it to sign a NT like B.J Raji, and possibly another disruptive DT like Jared Odrick. Both these players could be had at a decent price, and have lots of upside as induvial players, and even more upside when you think of them playing on a defense as talented as the Patriots.
Raji is a physical freak, who simply, hasn't lived up to his god given talent in GB. My thing is, I feel like GB is horrible at developing line talent, where bill is amazing at it. Maybe he can turn him around and score a steal. Jared Odrick could possibly be excellent next to Easley. The two could form a pretty nasty inside pass rush (Odrick was 4th with QB hurries this season with 19, per PFF). Im just in love with the idea of balanced versatility which would create such a high level of unpredictability.
 
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I was doing a little bit of research on Sammie Coates.

Consider this: AJ Green is 6'4", Sammie Coates 6' 1.5". But, AJ Green's wingspan was 78" whilst Sammie Coates' is 78.5". Add that to a reported 40" vert and you have a guy who should be able to 'go and get" a bunch of balls.

Coates both excites and terrifies me. His upside is a genuine no 1 receiver and true impact guy but his floor is Stephen Hill.
 


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