Idle thoughts - the football talk edition.

RelocatedPatFan · Jan 24, 2015

On defense how are we going to deal with their use of ~~pick~~ rub routes?

I expect the refs (especially now) to keep their flags in check and allow these types of things to happen.

Tony Cahncuhd · Jan 24, 2015

RelocatedPatFan said:
On defense how are we going to deal with their use of ~~pick~~ rub routes?

I expect the refs (especially now) to keep their flags in check and allow these types of things to happen.

Revis handled that one 'pick' play pretty effectively last week. He was able to peel off and undercut the route, almost as if he was baiting Luck. Early recognition and evasion is key I guess.

neuronet · Jan 24, 2015

Great thread! Like x 1000

skinnydog · Jan 24, 2015

Awesome thread, I too love the contrasting styles of these two defenses. I sometimes wish the Pats weren't too game plan specific, but once Belichick gets 11 talented defenders with the smarts and versatility to morph from one style to another week to week it is amazingly effective. It is just so hard to put that all together, but this group may be there.

On paper it looks like the Patriots should be able to run the ball, but don't the Seahawks face handle the 49ers power running attack pretty well?

Tunescribe · Jan 24, 2015

dannydyn said:
It's a neutral site but the Seahawks fanbase travels well, as he put it. As an example, you can look at last year's superbowl which was held all the way out on the east coast, and yet the 12th man was in full force. Manning had to operate in silent mode from the first snap (which ended up in a safety).

Glendale is a dome, things might be even worse for us than they were for the Broncos last year. In that aspect, the Pats are about the face the worst possible fanbase.

Noise won't be anything remotely near what it is in Seattle. My guesstimate is 30 percent Squawks fans, 20 percent Pats fans, 50 percent mixed corporate freeloaders.

pencilneckgeek · Jan 25, 2015

Bumping this back to the top. We're on to the Superbowl.

patfanken · Jan 25, 2015

BelichickFan said:
No doubt it seems that way. Like you I don't have numbers to back it up - and our defense this year isn't necessarily good & bad vs. certain types of RB compared to previous defenses - but the powerful types do seem to have less success against us than the fast, speedy types.

Conceptually, stopping Lynch and keeping Wilson in the pocket seems like it should have enough success to hold them to a total that we have a shot to beat. That roll to the left and throw is one of Wilson's favorites.

One guy who does worry me is TE Luke Wilson, he has really come on over the past month and could be a factor against our defense that often struggles against TE.

You and Sicillian make great points. Big RB's like Bettis, etc, have rarely done well against us. However, I'd like to point out that THOSE were in the days when we did a lot more 2 gapping, our DE's were 290,, we ran predominantly a 3-4 and had historically big ILB's.

Seattle, I think has done a great job of being ahead of the pendulum's curve on this. While the league has been chasing "quicker and faster" among their DLmen, and LB's, Seattle has developed a powerful run offense that has aken advantage of a significant size and power effect. Now days most teams feature 240 lb LBs and lots of 260-280 lb DLmen. Cameron Wake is a great pass rusher, but he can be a liability vs the run. So can Bruce Irvin, btw. Teams like Seattle take advantage of that mismatch with they can.

On the plus side, the NEXT best team best able to take advantage of this phenomenon are the Pats, a team who is generally ahead of any curve, but in this case, are just behind the Seahawks

patfanken · Jan 25, 2015

pencilneckgeek said:
Ken, having you here these days is like holding gold during an economic collapse. The board is a mess, but at least it holds some value with threads like this. Thank you for taking the time to post your thoughts again and again.

My only issue with what you outlined above is the offensive strategy. I think the Seahawks press the line, get the hands on the receivers, and flood the short zones to take away the short passing game risky, while simultaneously getting more men in position to stop the run. The remedy to that, as I see it, is to pound the rock and get those defenders to commit to the run. Play with 2TE, 2WR, and blount with Gronk alternately lined-up tight or in the slot and block the smaller guys who try to get their hands on him. Then, use play action to spring JE, Gronk, or LaFell down the field. If those passes connect, the Seahawks will be off-balance and have to adjust, likely to their customary soft zone, at which point the short passing game and the complimentary running game will work as you suggest. If those downfield passes don't connect, or if the Hawks penetrating DLine gets to Brady, it will be a long day. Fortunately, the downfield passes don't have to go 15-20 yards to be effective. The in between 10-yard shots (alternately over the top/back shoulder passing) are easier to work and can be instant first downs, when they connect.

I not only agree with what you think Seattle will do, I will guarantee it. THAT's what they do. They are not really a press man centric team. For the most part they play a tight 5 man under with a single high Safety and dare you to throw the ball. What is interesting amid all the pound the rock talk we are going to see all week, is that the schematic solution to beat that coverage is to spread them out. (that and use play action pass) That makes for an interesting choice of options for Josh.

BTW- the best places to attack those zones are in the middle about 10 yds deep, and the outside 8-12. They will do everything in their power squeeze that 5 yd pass that Brady loves so much, So I look for Brady to be looking deeper this week. Not necessarily going deep, but deep-er

SVN · Jan 25, 2015

patfanken said:
MATCH UPS – THE PATS O vs Seattle’s D

This is starting to go on too long, so this will be both brief and incomplete.

The Pats won’t present the same issues that GB did. We don’t have the top end WR’s GB has, nor is Brady have the pin point down field accuracy that Rodgers does. But here’s what we do have that will cause problems for them

What we lack in individual talent at WR we make up for in numbers. I would not be surprised to see the Pats spread the Seahawks out and let Brady pick them apart doing what HE does best.

I don’t see the Seahawks have any more success at rushing Brady than they did rushing a hobbled Rodgers, regardless of who we have out there. Their biggest threats are their outside rushers, and Solder and Volmer are both coming into this game playing at the best level of the year. Our OT’s are better than GB’s it’s just that simple.

Inside the issues are still going to be there, just like they have been the whole season. Sometimes its been very good, and other times, not so much. Seattle will be a much more severer test than the Colts, but not any better than what we saw against the Bill, Lions, Bronco’s, Dolphins, or Jets. The Seahawks should have some success. They are just too good not to. But I will be surprised if that success isn’t for the most part isolated instances rather than a consistent pattern of pressure.

Eddie Lacy had some early success against the Seahawks as has several other good running attacks. What we need this running attack to accomplish is more of a ASmith type of performance than a DMurray one. We need 80-100yds from Blount. We need to make almost ALL of our 3rd and shorts (at least 75%) and we CANNOT fail like GB did in the redzone. We can’t be less than 50% there.

OK let’s stop here. I hope you all expand the discussion here with more detail to fill in what I’ve left out. Above all, let us all “ignore the noise” and talk some serious football. There is a lot we can cover.

I the speed of the seattle defense everyone talks about is something to watch out for..especially in YAC. And the they tackle very well.
They might as well use the same gameplan they had vs Denver last yr. Force brady to go deep and to the sidelines and take away the middle with chancellor roaming around to stop gronk from big gains. Surprisingly the colts in the last 2 games have done well stopping Gronk at least for 3 Quarters. This has to be a big game for edelman/vereen/amendola for us to move the ball vs that great defense. We score 24 or more we have chance. Question is if we can without turnovers.
We have to run the ball and commit to it and not come out exclusively in pass mode like we did vs ravens.

patfanken · Jan 25, 2015

SVN said:
I the speed of the seattle defense everyone talks about is something to watch out for..especially in YAC. And the they tackle very well.
They might as well use the same gameplan they had vs Denver last yr. Force brady to go deep and to the sidelines and take away the middle with chancellor roaming around to stop gronk from big gains. Surprisingly the colts in the last 2 games have done well stopping Gronk at least for 3 Quarters. This has to be a big game for edelman/vereen/amendola for us to move the ball vs that great defense. We score 24 or more we have chance. Question is if we can without turnovers.
We have to run the ball and commit to it and not come out exclusively in pass mode like we did vs ravens.

I think you are dead on accurate at what the Seahawks are likely to do to us. However, the more I think about it, the more I become convinced that simply running the football is not the only the way to go. I'm actually think that they might just come out spread and throwing. The most obvious solution to a team that's likely to have 9 or 10 guys in the box, squeezing what you do best, is to spread them out and make them all cover more ground. For that reason, my guess is that we come out and pass early and settle into the a more balanced offense as the game goes on and Seattle realizes that they can't put too many people in the box.

TomPatriot · Jan 25, 2015

The Colts doubled Gronk and bumped him off the line. Kam can't handle Gonk alone. No one really can. They have to sell out. He's not a WR you can mug, like Jordy Nelson.

I like a single back, six lineman front, no-huddle formation with a stack on one side. You can run motion out of the stack or from the eligible lineman to the hole in runs or for pass protection. It's versatile and hopefully keeps Brady clean. You can plan on losing if you play zone and Brady gets 4-5 seconds to select. That forces Seattle to go man and I think that gives their corners fits.

Then again you can beat Sherman and Max by flooding the zone. That makes Patfranken's spread preference laid out in his post effective because there are more receivers

I guess, as Chip Kelly would say, the Pats will run a "see coast offense." They'll see what they give them and they'll take it.

CaffeineMan · Jan 25, 2015

"Bumpty bumpty bump…" to quote Tower of Power.

Just wanna express my appreciation to Ken et al for the good football thread, from another refugee from the noise.

Andy Benoit mentioned that Seattle would likely defend against Pats empty sets by rushing 3 and dropping a D-lineman into coverage to clog up the middle for the Edelman crossing routes. Not an X and O guy, so I'm interested in y'all's takes on how the Pats deal with this. Convenience link:

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/21/nfl-n...-super-bowl-49-preview-andy-benoit-deep-dive/

pencilneckgeek · Jan 25, 2015

patfanken said:
I not only agree with what you think Seattle will do, I will guarantee it. THAT's what they do. They are not really a press man centric team. For the most part they play a tight 5 man under with a single high Safety and dare you to throw the ball. What is interesting amid all the pound the rock talk we are going to see all week, is that the schematic solution to beat that coverage is to spread them out. (that and use play action pass) That makes for an interesting choice of options for Josh.

BTW- the best places to attack those zones are in the middle about 10 yds deep, and the outside 8-12. They will do everything in their power squeeze that 5 yd pass that Brady loves so much, So I look for Brady to be looking deeper this week. Not necessarily going deep, but deep-er

The funny things is that they went to press man in the 2nd half against Green Bay last week and had a lot of success, so we might see multiple looks from them this time around. The scheme of press coverage, however, and the guys who will be in coverage versus coming after Brady isn't going to change that much, so I look to lots of motion, to get pre-snap reads and setup wham blocks and crossing patterns that force the LBs to make a quick read on run action.

PP2 · Jan 25, 2015

CaffeineMan said:
"Bumpty bumpty bump…" to quote Tower of Power.

Just wanna express my appreciation to Ken et al for the good football thread, from another refugee from the noise.

Andy Benoit mentioned that Seattle would likely defend against Pats empty sets by rushing 3 and dropping a D-lineman into coverage to clog up the middle for the Edelman crossing routes. Not an X and O guy, so I'm interested in y'all's takes on how the Pats deal with this. Convenience link:

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/21/nfl-n...-super-bowl-49-preview-andy-benoit-deep-dive/

Don't really agree with him that the rush 3 drop 1 will do anything about the short game. In our last game vs. Seattle we had good success stacking with Welker motioning to the under and Hern doing a clear off route, pulling the zone up with him. This created somewhat of a vacuum on the flat that Welker took advantage of a few times.

Look for this to be exploited again- with Edelman (not active for that game) in motion a lot and stacking underneath to peel off inside. I wonder if we will have dual stacks playing to the inside because Seattle's backfield (e.g., Sherman) love to play outside the hashes and hate coming inside where they have to worry about traffic.

Kulko · Jan 25, 2015

up you go.

SVN · Jan 26, 2015

Going to come down to our interior oline. Probably the fastest and and biggest defense size wise they have faced I think. I hope they dont go exclusively no huddle and with vereen. Blount needs to get his touches.

Baboon · Jan 26, 2015

Seattle's Offense V Patriots Defense
Seattle's entire offense revolves around the Dive / Read Option power run game. Simply put they try to run over middle or guard and if that is not there, or if the defense commits early, Wilson takes off.

The Pats have an outstanding secondary, so I expect the pats to load the box. I expect the pats to throw a lot of beef out there to shutdown the Dive, but Seattle could expose that strategy with lots of screens, sweeps and Russel Wilson runs. (This is how I expect Seattle to come out on the first drive.)

Seattle's offensive line isn't all that impressive to me, especially in the pass game. Hopefully Big Vince will have a great (possible last) game with the pats.

Patriots Offense v Seattle Defense
San Francisco and Dallas both attacked Seattle's defense hard with runs up the middle in their last meetings (32 for 140 for SF, and 36 for 162 Dal). Seattle's D-line is built around speed. Nobody gets to the outside effectively against them. I hope to see a lot of 6 o-lineman fronts (with Fleming eligible at times,) to run the ball down their throats. But I expect to see a couple of runs get stopped early and McDaniels to go Shotgun.

Seattle loves to play cover 3. This can be exposed by repeatedly attacking on the strong side with the short passing game. Additionally, it can be exposed deep by flooding the zone (two deep routes up each seam, and two deep routes down each sideline.) One of those routes will be open, but will Brady have the time?

Seattle also enjoys playing Cover 1. I expect Seattle to get torched if they try this against the pats. The pats simply have too many decent players running routes and the best qb of all time at finding the open receivers. The pats would kill them with crossing patterns and bunch sets.

If I was coaching Seattle, I would try to stuff the run early to expose McDaniels weakness: Giving up on the run too easily. Then I would play a lot of Tampa 2 with a Cover 3 shell. (Essentially a Cover 3 but dropping a LB to stop intermediate middle passes.)

Overall, I expect one team to show up with fumbleitis or the intercepses, and kill themselves on the world stage just like Denver did last year. If both teams play clean, I pick the pats to win easily.

mosi · Jan 26, 2015

RelocatedPatFan said:
On defense how are we going to deal with their use of ~~pick~~ rub routes?

I expect the refs (especially now) to keep their flags in check and allow these types of things to happen.

And you know that at the end, there will be no holding calls called on anyone.

mosi · Jan 26, 2015

Baboon said:
Seattle's Offense V Patriots Defense
Seattle's entire offense revolves around the Dive / Read Option power run game. Simply put they try to run over middle or guard and if that is not there, or if the defense commits early, Wilson takes off.

The Pats have an outstanding secondary, so I expect the pats to load the box. I expect the pats to throw a lot of beef out there to shutdown the Dive, but Seattle could expose that strategy with lots of screens, sweeps and Russel Wilson runs. (This is how I expect Seattle to come out on the first drive.)

Seattle's offensive line isn't all that impressive to me, especially in the pass game. Hopefully Big Vince will have a great (possible last) game with the pats.

Patriots Offense v Seattle Defense
San Francisco and Dallas both attacked Seattle's defense hard with runs up the middle in their last meetings (32 for 140 for SF, and 36 for 162 Dal). Seattle's D-line is built around speed. Nobody gets to the outside effectively against them. I hope to see a lot of 6 o-lineman fronts (with Fleming eligible at times,) to run the ball down their throats. But I expect to see a couple of runs get stopped early and McDaniels to go Shotgun.

Seattle loves to play cover 3. This can be exposed by repeatedly attacking on the strong side with the short passing game. Additionally, it can be exposed deep by flooding the zone (two deep routes up each seam, and two deep routes down each sideline.) One of those routes will be open, but will Brady have the time?

Seattle also enjoys playing Cover 1. I expect Seattle to get torched if they try this against the pats. The pats simply have too many decent players running routes and the best qb of all time at finding the open receivers. The pats would kill them with crossing patterns and bunch sets.

If I was coaching Seattle, I would try to stuff the run early to expose McDaniels weakness: Giving up on the run too easily. Then I would play a lot of Tampa 2 with a Cover 3 shell. (Essentially a Cover 3 but dropping a LB to stop intermediate middle passes.)

Overall, I expect one team to show up with fumbleitis or the intercepses, and kill themselves on the world stage just like Denver did last year. If both teams play clean, I pick the pats to win easily.

Great post! Even Carolina ran pretty well against Seattle in the first playoff game. The key is to not get predictable. I think as long as the game is close, the Pats will stick with the run, much in the same way that Seattle will.

The Seahawks win by keeping the game close and winning in the end by not making mistakes and forcing mistakes by the opposing team. Even in their blow-out wins, like their last win against Arizona, they were only up a bit until the mid-4th QRT. And Arizona stunk - I don't think what people say - they had no offense and their defense was actually pretty bad.

RelocatedPatFan · Jan 26, 2015

Baboon said:
If I was coaching Seattle, I would try to stuff the run early to expose McDaniels weakness: Giving up on the run too easily. Then I would play a lot of Tampa 2 with a Cover 3 shell. (Essentially a Cover 3 but dropping a LB to stop intermediate middle passes.)

Let's hope Brady can diagnose their fronts and air the ball out if they try to stuff the run early. If the Patriots are down multiple scores, it always gets harder as the offense gets more predictable. the key is to maintain balance and effective use of play calling.

It will take a good-great game from all 3 phases, playing complementary football. I hope the team has been focused this week with all the distractions that have taken place.

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