Patriots Fumble Rates Compared to Other Teams

Sorry if this has been brought up previously but this site has some pretty interesting stats, and with a pretty strange graph at the end.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...ral/224-the-patriots-have-great-ball-security



Are these stats genuine, and if so can Belichick's emphasis on ball security explain this much of a difference? I don't want to believe it so I'm hoping someone can set this straight.

Good coaching.

Law Firm was damn secure with the ball. That's the only explanation I need.

blackglass3 said:

Law Firm was damn secure with the ball. That's the only explanation I need.

Click to expand...

That wouldn't explain 07, 09, and 12 though. And yes I believe good coaching is important but does no other coach in the league coach ball security?

Is this just fumbles lost like the graph he drew inspiration from or all fumbles?

VectorPrime said:

That wouldn't explain 07, 09, and 12 though. And yes I believe good coaching is important but does no other coach in the league coach ball security?

Click to expand...

Remember all the whining and *****ing when he yanked Ridley after fumbles and comments abut how other coaches don't do that ?

I get statistical analysis but when the players are changing that's a very large variable in the data that's not accounted for.

Kick Returns and Punt Returns are used with footballs that are unmolestable by ebil Patriot ball deflating ninjas.

And I'm guessing our relative rate of fumbling compared to other teams is just as infrequent during those plays as any other.

BelichickFan said:

Remember all the whining and *****ing when he yanked Ridley after fumbles and comments abut how other coaches don't do that ?

Click to expand...

Of course I do.

It's kind of odd that BJGE started fumbling in Cincy though. Reverting to the mean makes sense especially being coached by Marvin Lewis but its not like he forgot what he learned in New England. So why the sudden increase?

It's fumbles lost. If you recover your fumbles the stat changes.
Graph the % running plays vs passing over the same timescale and you'll notice a decrease. Most fumbles are by RBs.

VectorPrime said:

Sorry if this has been brought up previously but this site has some pretty interesting stats, and with a pretty strange graph at the end.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...ral/224-the-patriots-have-great-ball-security

Are these stats genuine, and if so can Belichick's emphasis on ball security explain this much of a difference? I don't want to believe it so I'm hoping someone can set this straight.

Click to expand...

2007...they ran the ball a lot that year right? Oh wait.....they didn't. OK, well it's a god thing that Bill allows backs that fumble a lot to continue to carry the ball. What? Oh....then I guess this thing is meaningless. Saw the same figures on a graph that pulled the old "disappearing zero" trick making it look like the Pats fumble rate was a total outlier, when in fact, while excellent , was not. Had someone posting that graph ask me in a Pats vs. the World Facebook thread if I was smart enough to understand Stats, when in fact, I am an ex Math professor that taught, among other things, Stats...... The specific thing in this graph,assuming it is asserting the same info I looked at earlier, and I think it is, is that it goes by SNAP, as opposed to running play or passing play. Meaningless.

PatsWickedPissah said:

It's fumbles lost. If you recover your fumbles the stat changes.
Graph the % running plays vs passing over the same timescale and you'll notice a decrease. Most fumbles are by RBs.

Click to expand...

Awesome point.

This is probably too simplistic and I haven't looked at the numbers, but 2007 was when the passing offense took off. Could more passing attempts equal less rushing attempts? That's just off the top of my head. Does anyone think of a WR as a 'fumbler.' That's usually reserved for running backs.

Also, that graph is nice, but I'd like to see where passing teams fit in there instead of the Patriots vs the average for 31 other teams.

Troll alert....

TB=TD said:

Troll alert....

Click to expand...

I'm a die hard Pats fan who sat in the rain in the 300 section for the entire AFC Championship game I'm not a troll. I want to have info to discredit these types of things. Please correct all my concerns, I sincerely want you to.

IS RELATED TO STEVAN RIDLER NOT PLAYING IN GAME

Two things of significance happened in 2007 with regards to how the Patriots played football. I wonder what those might be, and if they might have impacted the Patriots fumble numbers....

Deus Irae said:

Two things of significance happened in 2007 with regards to how the Patriots played football. I wonder what those might be, and if they might have impacted the Patriots fumble numbers....

Click to expand...

I'm well aware that was the year we switched from a focus on power running to the flying circus. But Maroney got his touches.

We went into FU mode and threw the ball a ton, and that is the best team the NFL has ever seen.

TheBeers said:

We went into FU mode and threw the ball a ton, and that is the best team the NFL has ever seen.

Click to expand...

Not in 08 and 09 though.

PYPER said:

The league allowing QB's to condition the balls went into effect in 2006 or 2007. Instead of playing with slick new balls, teams have been playing with balls that have been broken in since then. Those balls with their better grip make it easier for RB's and WR's to hold onto as well.

Plus the Patriots have been a good team every year since then and protecting the football has always been a staple in their success. Bad teams beat themselves…good teams learn to protect the ball. The statistical anomaly of that report is just a function of all of the above.

Click to expand...

I considered the ball grip too but how come no other team followed suit and roughed up their balls in the same way? If breaking in the the balls made such a huge difference you would think that the overall average would have plummeted between all teams, not just the Pats.