First off, I don't think we will ever remotely approach the hockey stick. It may appear to you as if we are, but you need to look at AAV as well as cap. Colvin for example is a $4M+ AAV bargain basement by current standards starting OLB on a contender. Don't let his cap or Brady's (whose actual deal averages $10M per) scare you at any given juncture. There is lots of manipulation that goes on by design. We needed cap space early in Colvin's deal, don't need it this season. We structured Brady's for a little relief early, absorbability under an exploding expanded cap, and friendly in the out years whether he plays them out or we extend him with little dead cap or existing/remaining amortization to muddle up the works. In each of the last two years, and again next year, we could easily restructure Tommy's deal and push out amortization (his cap ends in single digits in 2010) but my guess is we will not unless we need a little wiggle room for anothe special player. We are preferring the pay as you go, or even pay a little more up front as you go, model that the team in Indianapolis aren't even in a position to try to duplicate, though Polian would love it if he was.
As for Asante, I don't think he's a player you will see enter the club for several reasons. First, he's not elite at his position. He's very good in this system and probably pretty good in some others. Kinda like old Meion. And those positions are both one's BB will not extend himself dramatically for because of how the system works, let alone for players who don't project a winning first attitude. AD projected that (was willing to take a little less than max value) as well as rare talent at a position they highly value. He immediately projects into the club level. Hopefully one or both of Warren and Wilfork will choose to when their number comes up. Because I do agree that they are stretching the model a bit and I think they will part company with ANYONE who attempts to force them to stretch if beyond what they deem as reasonable. Seymour could go next time out which I believe is why they only agreed to give him his money for 3 seasons they could spread over 4 to remain cap friendly for his talent and position. Luckily for us, Brady will continue to play ball because for him it all remains about winning and legacy - same things that keep Belioli here.
AD split the difference w/the Pats, basically, but the Pats must think of him as a pretty good risk (as do you.) They "project" one thing, but he could well be quite another... with $20M going his way in the next couple of years, and $7M AAV. I look at that deal and think, "well, they were serious about this guy and think he's worth it...." In Bill I trust, of course. But an instant "club" membership...? Wow! The only explanation that makes sense is he's proven himself elite, not that he's projected to be elite... two pro bowls would bolster that explanation. Also, just as a player can be less valuable
to the Patriots than their general value would indicate, the reverse can be true as well. A good character guy who excels in the versatility department would get a little bump in the Belioli value scheme. Last but not least, he's from Equality, Alabama. I mean, come on!
I do agree we're seeing the bill coming due for Colvin right now, which is a fair critique of looking specifically at his present cap hit vs. his AAV.
But taking together the cap hits over the last 5 seasons, you can see the Pats' gentle slope becoming more like the sharp angle curve, and less like a "gentle slope with exceptions." The model thus far shows a lot of meat in the middle class. Add a few more "top flight" contracts, and that is just gone. AAV simple helps establish the next year's "curve," from this point of view. And as we all know, the system is expanding. So what we will see is a depiction of whether new wealth goes to a new size of "club" at the relative "top," or whether we beef up that infamous New England middle class of players, proportionate to the increase in available cash leaguewide. Managing those hits has ended up providing the curve this shape, regardless of what the respective AAVs are. Asante's demands would threaten this curve, regardless of how and when we took the hit, especially if followed by others in his "pretty good" category.
I think we agree that Asante falls into the "middle" group, but wants to be in the "club". If the "middle" gets paid like the "club", we can afford maybe 15-20 players for the entire season, an obvious impossibility. So either Asante is mistaken in his initial self-evaluation, or we are mistaken in our evaluation of Asante.
We're getting closer to the hockey stick, by the way, comparing over time. We still have that curve for the middle rather than an angle... but you can not preserve the curve without saying "no" to middle guys that want "in."
PFnV
