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Idle Thoughts – the “on to Seattle” edition.


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patfanken

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Note: This is being published a lot later than I hoped. I met some friends at a bar to eat and watch the game. I got to the place and was surprised it was a Chinese Joint. Who goes to a Chinese Restaurant to watch a game? Anyway the food was great, the TV’s were big, and by the end of the night all the workers had joined us and we spent a lot of time trying to explain what was going on to a bunch Chinese immigrants. :D

Then after the game, they couldn't kick us out fast enough so they could go home, I discovered I had left my lights on and had a dead battery. But have no fear, I had cables that someone once gave me in lieu of money they owed. I should have known better. They diddn’t work. Any way to make a long story short (and there is more to tell), about 90 minutes later, AAA arrived and 30 seconds later I was off heading home. I guess there should be a moral to this story. The obvious one is "DON'T watch football games at Chinese Restaurants", but the one with more truth in it, is "DONT'T get old" :D And we are off.

1. I was on record in 2 Packer/Seahawk threads telling everyone that they should be rooting for Seattle in the 2nd half. I don’t know about you, but I got the match up that I think is most advantageous for the Pats. Later I’ll explain way, but first let’s talk about the game.

2. I know I was very cautionary pregame, but I thought they’d win. I was looking for something like a 31-23 game. I didn’t expect them to blow them out 45-7 It looks bad, but it was actually much worse. Not only did the Pats leave an additional 10-14 points on the table, they themselves were the prime reason for the only 7 points the Colts managed to put up.

3. What I hate most about this blow out is that it will justify the Felgers and CHB’s of the world to think that the Colts were the “tomato cans”, they had predicted.

4. The Colts were better than they looked, we just played very very well. You don’t win 2 playoff games on the road, if you aren’t a good football team, especially going into Denver, The point here is please don’t diminish this win, by diminishing the Colts.

5. This is a Colt DL that not only sacked Manning twice behind one of the better OL’s in the game, they hit and harassed him all game, and did a great job of getting him off his spot. Yet except for the one sack, which was more a function of a funky unbalanced alignment that left only on offensive lineman to the left of the C, Brady might have had the best pass protection he’s had in the last 2 months. Josh Kline has taken a LOT of heat on this board. I would hope his critics might be man enough to step up with some compliments for his play this game, as should the entire OL

6. I saw a couple of plays that almost makes me think that the move of Wendell to C helped the run game a bit. As I have said since TC, Wendell best asset is his quickness off the ball in the run game. For any old timers, think Dwight Stevenson. Its rare for a C to explode off the ball and still snap it. Wendell does it well. What else he does well is to get to the second level. On at least 3 occasions on successful run replays, you can see Wendell be the first lineman off the LOS, initially doubling a DLman, then once he’d been sealed, release an get a hat on a LB on the 2nd level.

Wendell’s kryptonite are the Haloti Ngata’s of the world. Interesting to note, that none of that ilk reside on the Seattle DL


7. I’ve always LIKED LaGarrette Blount, but now I’m beginning to LOVE him. Personally I’ve always preferred the one cut and SLASH kind of RB, like Ridley and Gray, but Blount has won ,ne over. Even more impressive than his 148 yds and 5/ypc average, was the fact that close to a 100 of those yds came AFTER first contact. He makes a LOT of people miss him or are left to try and arm tackle him on virtually every play. Very impressive effort

After watching GB have some success with Eddie Lacy running the ball with some very vanilla scheming, I fully expect Blount to have more than enough success running the ball to allow all our playaction passing game to be effective and move the chains when necessary. It might not match the numbers he had tonight, but it should be enough to provide the kind of balance we need in this final game.


8. We had a very effective and efficient passing game WITHOUT having to rely on Gronk as a focus of the offense. 8 different receivers again, including Hooman. If this keeps up, how long will it be before teams will have to start doubling him. ;)

9. The most important aspect of all these arcane plays and formations, is not only are the Pats executing them so well, it forces ANOTHER group of football situations that Seattle will have to prepare. As the announcers rightly mentioned, no comes close to the number of formations, plays, and personnel groupings each game as the Pats.

10. Tonight we saw a glimpse of just how good our offense potentially can be. Outside of perhaps the first 3 plays of the game, and after the game was 45-7, the only thing that stopped the Pats, WEREs the Pats. 6-7 red zone scores is simply outstanding. Their 3rd down efficiency before garbage time was almost as good Their one redzone failure was, IMHO, simply mind boggling, 3 plays that had to be a brain freeze Josh experienced, that was the exception that proves the game plan excellence that is the general rule.

11. Just a couple of brief comments on the offense as it relates to Seattle.

a. That was simply a HISTORIC gag by GB. Never has a team had more chances to win a game that was their’s for the taking and blew them all. Lots of 3rd and short failures that led to FG's, instead of TD’s. At least 3 dropped picks that I saw to go along with the 4 that occurred. And several rain (perhaps) related drops.

b. Seattle deserves lots of kudos for their mental toughness and hard nose attitude, but they had no business winning that game. That one is going to eat at GB and their fans for a long time. I can’t imagine a worse loss. But on the plus side they exposed a LOT of flaws in the Seahawk game on both sides that have been covered up by the EXTREMELY soft schedule they had played over the last 7 games

c. The Pats may not have the elite brand of receivers GB might has)Cobb, Nelson), but they have more legit targets that a team has to defend. They will be by far the most difficult team Seattle has had to face this year. GB could have easily put up 4o against them.

d. GB has an OL that’s no better than ours and probably worse, and Rodgers had plenty of time to throw the bal, despite the disadvantage of playing in Seattlel.
 
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DEFENSIVE COMMENTS - Colts

1. Outside of 2 runs, the Pats run defense passed the test with flying colors under 80 yds. They will face a MUCH stiffer test in a couple of weeks, yet they will have some mitigating advantages.

2. Somewhat gratifying to see that the Pats used Collins on occasion as I suggested in my strategies thread hanging around the LOS and then aggressively attacking him if he tried to break contain.

3. Also good to see that the Pats not only varied their packages from zone to man, but changed assignments as well. Wilson is a fine, cool headed, and intelligent young QB, but so was luck. Well disguised and diversified coverages confuse the best of QB’s.

4. I thought Browner’s best match up was Fleener, and so, evidently did BB. Brandon spent a lot time (but not all) against Fleener and the heralded “next great TE receiver” had 3 for 30. Kudos for Bradon, and Kudos for Patricia, it was a great match up. BTW – Brandon’s lone penalty couldn’t have been much because they never bothered to replay it.

5. BTW- the Pats had double the penalties and yardage though with the exception of Browner’s penalty all the ones I saw replayed were deserved. Vince should be ashamed of his.

6. That being said, once again there were SEVERAL obvious non-calls that seem to be penalties when the Pats do them, but OK for our opponents.

7. This was what Greg Bedard will probably call a very efficient and productive pass rush, despite the lack of any sacks. The Pats managed enough of a rush to consistently force Luck to move off his spot and throw out of rhythm, while keeping him from gashing them with his legs. 18 yds on 4 carries was much better than I could have hoped and more than made up for the lack of any sacks. The biggest fear I had for this game was Luck constantly breaking contain and tuning for 5 odd yds and lots of first downs.

8. For the most part v virtually every pass was highly contested, and the only TD that the Colts actually managed was the result of a brain fart by Vince, and an AWESOME throw and catch by Luck and Hilton. That was a 40 yd completion that Luck had to throw into a 6 inch window against excellent coverage and Hilton had not only make a difficult catch, he had to perform a miracle with his feet to get both inbounds. Plus the 3rd down phantom hold call away from the ball against Browner.

9. To mirror a previous observation, we saw a glimpse of just how good our defense can potentially be, when we play one of our better games.

10. Jamie Collins continues to be a full service player making big plays on all 3 levels. He’s a pleasure to watch and its comforting to realize we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg.

11. A couple of brief comments as it relates to the defense vs Seattle.

a. GB gave us a great blueprint on how to control the Seattle offense. You saw (if you watched any of the game) how effectively they played it, with very few exceptions. Well think about this. We have better CB’s and more of them. We have better overall S play….and again we have more of them. Clay Mathews did a super job of controlling the read option game and still providing run support and as an occasional pass rusher. Well Jamie Collins can fill that role and do it better.

b. For a long time GB did a good job defending Lynch. The Packers didn’t have a 270 lb LB like Hightower to help in run support. The Pats also have more run stopping DT’s to rotate in there to help prevent wearing out at the end of the game. BTW – I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that more than half Lynch’s rushing yds came in the last 5 minutes of the game and overtime.

c. Don’t underestimate the fact that this game is NOT going to be in Seattle. Their DL gets a huge advantage on their pass rush in that stadium. The biggest in the league by far for a non-dome team.

d. Just an observation on the Revis pick. If you watch a replay closely you might be looking at one of 2 things. The first could be a good example of how a tight underneath zone can fool a QB. If you watch, you;ll see Revisline up in press man and get a great jam on is WR. He jams him right into the OLB which stuffs him dead in his tracks. Revis then breaks off his press and under cuts the complimentary route, the short out. Luck would have noted him not only look like he's in press pre-snap, he might have seen the jam and be more convinced there would be no one underneath his out, and saw no need to loft it over to his receiver.

OR it he could of Ty Lawed it.circa 2003 vs the Colts, and on his own simply saw his guy was out of the play and took off on his own to undercut the complimentary route. Either way it was a VERY smart play

Complaint department –
Hard to have any with that game, but if we are truly disciples of BB, it is our responsibility to find fault In blow outs. ;)

1. Why was Ninko still in the game during the last 8 minutes of the game. Why couldn't Akeem Ayers get all those 4th quarter snaps and give Jones and Ninko some rest. Someone should tell Ninko that he doesn’t get paid by the snap. BTW another nice game by him.

2. The end of the half red zone failure. With ball on the 3 First and 10 and a TO or 2 ' and 30 seconds on the clock, I find it hard to believe we’d squander our TO’s and fail to attempt even ONE running play, given the Colts and’t stopped the run all game to that point. Instead we ran 3 failed passes and none of them were even a play action pass.

3. I still find it unfathomable that the Pats won’t run the ball from the shot gun. IIRC the Pats USED to have a very effective and creative series of running plays from that offensive set. For a team that runs a lot of very cool and creative deceptive stuff, I don’t understand why they refuse to be the least bit deceptive from the shot gun.


Later on in the week, I try another strategy thread and discuss in more detail various ways the Pats can defend the read option, because we are definitely going to see it, since in the end it provided much of the offense that won Seattle that game. Meanwhile now that this is done, I can finally check out the board and see what others think


Right now I’m feeling very strongly that if the Pats play one of their A games, Seattle can’t beat them. As always, I look forward to your comments and observations
 
Always look forward to reading these.game thoughts...my only input is how exciting as a football fan will it be seeing Gronk go against Chancellor??
 
Ken, once the TOs were burned after the 4th down conversion and the illegal formation call there was no way to get a running play off and risk going into the half empty handed..

Also, how do you want to pull off play action if the opponent knows that you wont risk running without TOs.

Situationally they had to go with passes and should have gotten a PI call on at least one of them anyway.
 
Great as always. But no love for Edelperson ? How many 3rd down catches did he have ?

More schemes that pay off - Solder TD. Anybody still think Belichick is out of tricks ?

Luck had several long downfield passes (e.g. Herron) that I think in better weather he completes.
 
Nice thoughts, Ken. Too many to respond to individually, so I'll just throw out a smorgasbord of my own.

1. This was the most complete game I've seen the Pats play in ages. 60 minutes of domination in all 3 phases of the game. This was a stark contrast to Seattle's sloppy execution against GB. I don't know if the Pats can put together another complete effort like this, but if they can, it will every hard to match.

2. I think BB is reaping the benefits of all the work the team has put in, and the versatility of this team. Everyone is well versed in their roles, and he is able to get creative. I expect some new wrinkles for Seattle. As you say, no other team comes close to running the number of packages and options the Pats do, and there's so much to prepare for. I sometimes wonder if BB gets too fancy and complex, but right now we're seeing the benefits of it.

3. Josh McDaniels has been as on fire as I can ever remember.

4. I think that if we win the SB, we should all be grateful that we had to win a slug fest with the Ravens in the divisional round. After last week's game, Seattle won't really offer much more in terms of physicality and intensity. The Seahawks have a better secondary, but the Ravens have a much better defensive front, and Joe Flacco is much more of a deep threat than Russell Wilson.

5. The Seahawks clearly had no business winning that game, but I wasn't surprised that GB lost. They left too many points and opportunities on the table. I had a strong feeling that those 2 early short FGs would come back to haunt them. By the end of the game their defense seemed spent. I also felt that the game was a good example of how no secondary can stop a top QB if the DL does to get pressure.

6. I disagree that Seattle is a better matchup than Green Bay. I think the Pats do better when they play in sub against passing teams like Indy and GB. I also think that if Kyle Arrington had been healthy and active against GB it would have been a completely different game. But there's no doubt that Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense poses a stiffer challenge than Seattle's offense, which I doubt has the firepower to put up more than 20 points on this defense.

7. With that said, I will be thrilled if we are underdogs in this Super Bowl.

8. Speaking of Arrington, what a game. His job on TY Hilton was clearly one of the keys to the game. He has emerged as a real weapon on defense, a guy who you can game plan to take away the faster, shiftier receivers, and add flexibility in how you use Revis and Browner. I personally hope the Pats will extend him another year or two (he's only 28) and lower his cap hit.

9. I truly believe that the Patriots have as good a defense as Seattle's, and I will be very curious to see which unit comes out of the SB looking better. The Seahawks' unit has been together much longer, but we are finally seeing this defense get comfortable and come together. The Seahawks have also benefitted tremendousy from facing a huge number of weak QBs and offenses, and it's not surprising to me that they had a lot more trouble with the Packers.

10. Many people have felt that this team would go as far as the OL could carry them, and the OL has been up to the task in the playoffs, and then some. Vollmer and Solder were dominant - the calls for breaking up the OL earlier this season seem to have been premature. I'm hoping that Bryan Stork will be back, but I won't be quaking if he isn't. As you say, Seattle doesn't have a dominant interior defensive line. I also think that Cam Fleming is a terrific weapon, and his return definitely adds a dimension to the offense.

11. I think the Seahawks have had some injury issues which hurt them. The losses of DT Jeremy Hill and WR Paul Robinson are signficant, and Sherman and Thomas are banged up.

12. It would be fitting if the Pats can finally win their 4th SB in the Arizona desert. It will be a tough game, but if we execute well and play for all 60 minutes, I like our chances. If this team can finish things off, it will have to rival the 2004 team for my favorite version under BB.
 
Regarding the Revis pick...it looked like a designed zone. I think it was Arrington coming over the top of the route. Again, it looked designed from the stands, Revis simply did an excellent job of selling an off coverage and jumping the route.

The oline needs some serious credit tonight. They were creating holes (can we please see more of my man Develin?!), giving Brady plenty of time, an all around great showing.
 
Believe it or not, I think receivers like JE and DA can give Sherman problems if matched up with him. Sherman like a Talib and Browner, play their best matched up with bigger, physical receivers (Lafell) obviously Sherman is better than both those guys.

One thing I'm worried about is the dropped balls, and fumbles by our receiving core recently. Hasn't cost us yet, but Seattle's safeties and LB like to lay the wood. We can't leave points on the board the way GB did. We got to make the most out of our RZ opportunities.

Defensively the game plan is to make Wilson beat you in the pocket. GB took away the run, and Seattle had NOTHING. GB then went prevent, and Seattle got right back into the game with a Lynch rushing TD. Make them one dimensional. Wilson most dangerous when he can run. When he's strictly a pocket passer, he's average at best. Offense scoring TD's instead of settling for FG will help with that.

I was in the minority that preferred this matchup over GB. I feel GB offensively would have given us much more problems than Seattle. Going to be a great SB. Let's enjoy the next 13 days.
 
Ken, once the TOs were burned after the 4th down conversion and the illegal formation call there was no way to get a running play off and risk going into the half empty handed..

Also, how do you want to pull off play action if the opponent knows that you wont risk running without TOs.

Situationally they had to go with passes and should have gotten a PI call on at least one of them anyway.

The Pats could have run as late as 2nd down, because they had enough time to hustle to the line and try a pass play. That said, it might not have been a GOOD pass play, so it might have had the effect that a failed run would in effect burn two downs.

The bigger problem was running out of TOs for no obvious reason.
 
Complaints: Edelperson's beard and all the tough catches we expected Gronk to catch that he dropped.

UP: Edelperson's worst beard is better than Luck's best.
 
The Pats could have run as late as 2nd down, because they had enough time to hustle to the line and try a pass play. That said, it might not have been a GOOD pass play, so it might have had the effect that a failed run would in effect burn two downs.

The bigger problem was running out of TOs for no obvious reason.

There were 23 seconds to work with. If you run it on first down and don't get in then in best case you might have one throw with ~ 10 seconds left. You not only burn additional attempts but put yourself into a situation where one penalty runs off the rest of the time (exactly what happened 2012 in Seattle at HT). I don't see how the risk is worth it.

In general, I agree that the bigger issue is not having that TO but this doesn't change that there really was not much else we could have done in that situation.
 
There were 23 seconds to work with. If you run it on first down and don't get in then in best case you might have one throw with ~ 10 seconds left. You not only burn additional attempts but put yourself into a situation where one penalty runs off the rest of the time (exactly what happened 2012 in Seattle at HT). I don't see how the risk is worth it.

In general, I agree that the bigger issue is not having that TO but this doesn't change that there really was not much else we could have done in that situation.

Ahh. I wasn't thinking of penalties.
 
Who goes to a Chinese Restaurant to watch a game? Anyway the food was great, the TV’s were big, and by the end of the night all the workers had joined us and we spent a lot of time trying to explain what was going on to a bunch Chinese immigrants. :D

Then after the game, they couldn't kick us out fast enough so they could go home, I discovered I had left my lights on and had a dead battery. But have no fear, I had cables that someone once gave me in lieu of money they owed. I should have known better. They diddn’t work. Any way to make a long story short (and there is more to tell), about 90 minutes later, AAA arrived and 30 seconds later I was off heading home. I guess there should be a moral to this story. The obvious one is "DON'T watch football games at Chinese Restaurants", but the one with more truth in it, is "DONT'T get old" :D And we are off.

This is wrong Ken. The moral of the story is:

1) Do go to Chinese restaurants that have staff who don't understand football yet. This leads to the food being "great" probably because it's more authentic!

and

2) The Pats won convincingly the first time you went to a Chinese restaurant to watch a game. Since we're being slightly superstitious about this, I would suggest reservations for your crew at this very same place on the first of February! :D
 
Blount trauma and Bolden trauma
Vereen's nice catch and Gray's flash in the past

Talking about all the RBs of NEP causing nightmares for the Colts !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I dont think i realized what a group of punks the seahawks were. From Baldwins rant yesterday to Lynchs childish antics, i really hope we beat these guys.
 
I dont think i realized what a group of punks the seahawks were. From Baldwins rant yesterday to Lynchs childish antics, i really hope we beat these guys.
I give lynch a break. He has seemed legitimate in his distasteful, forced interviews...

He's an absolute baller, a nd seems a head case, but the type of locker room controllable head case you give a chance based on skill...
 
I give lynch a break. He has seemed legitimate in his distasteful, forced interviews...

He's an absolute baller, a nd seems a head case, but the type of locker room controllable head case you give a chance based on skill...

I used to give him a break, but at some point, grow up and act like an adult at work. The reporters are just trying to do their job too. His antics have just gotten old. But yeah, i remember him carrying like 5 patriot defenders into the endzone when he was with buffalo.
 
I think the Pats do better when they play in sub against passing teams like Indy and GB.

I was thinking about this last night...this might be the first time this year we could see more base package (4-3/3-4) than sub. While the sub package options with additional safeties like Chung, Wilson even maybe a little Ebner in the box are also options to stay able to defend the run, this team REALLY doesn't want to do their typical "keep Branch/Wilfork/Siliga on even in 3rd and long" as it both gives Wilson too much time as well as escapability and usage of another second level defensive player to spy him.

I like this aspect because it opens up the same aspect that the offense has - multiple fronts and coverage options to show Wilson that he's likely not seen much of. I LOVE BB vs the read option. Who took down the Tebow offense that everyone else copied? BB. Who wrote the book on Mike Vick's running offense? BB. Who first schemed around Randall Cunningham? BB.

I'm excited for the prospects and can't wait to see it in action.
 
Excellent analysis as always, Ken. And awesome that you took the time to write it after the dead battery incident.

I had a question about the last play of the GB/Seattle game. How does GB not have a deep safety to provide help against Wilson chucking it deep and winning the game in OT? I believe that was the way Seattle beat the Pats in 2012 with a late game deep ball.
 
That one is going to eat at GB and their fans for a long time. I can’t imagine a worse loss.

Drop an interception, let the QB out of the grasp of several defenders, pin the ball against your helmet for the lucky catch of a lifetime, leave a smurf covering a giant on cover zero............I don't have to imagine.
 
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