My Absurdly Early Pats' 2015 Draft Big Board

mayoclinic · Jan 17, 2015

As was discussed last year, the Pats reportedly use a "short" big board of about 75 players based on their own scouting, as opposed to using a much larger big board and basing things on the national scouting services. This may end up omitting some very good players, but tends to focus on guys who are good fits, and may help improve maneuverability during the draft.

With the 2015 draft class about set, here's my VERY preliminary board of guys who I think could be good fits for the Pats. Rankings are very loose, and will undoubtedly get revised many times over the next 3 1/2 months.

Tier 1: (worth a 1st round pick)

1. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida St. 6'4" 320#.
2. TJ Clemmings, OL, Pittsburgh. 6'5" 305#.
3. Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma. 6'6" 334#.
4. La'el Collins, OL, LSU. 6'5" 321#.
5. Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida. 6'2" 262#.
6. Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky. 6'4" 267#.
7. Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa. 6'5" 320#.
8. Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas. 6'2" 320#.

Tier 2: (worth a top 40 pick)

9. Cam Erving, OL, Florida. 6'5" 308#.
10. Ereck Flowers, OL, Miami. 6'5" 324#.
11. Bernardrick McKinney, LB/EDGE, Mississippi St. 6'5" 250#.

Tier 3: (worth a top 50 pick)

12. Max Valles, EDGE, Virginia. 6'5" 240#.
13. Danielle Hunter, EDGE, LSU. 6'6" 240#.
14. Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana. 6'1" 210#.
15. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington. 6'3" 332#.

Tier 4: (worth a 2nd round pick)

16. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6'3" 222#.
17. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville. 6'3" 209#.
18. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia. 6'3" 210#.
19. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA. 6'3" 270#.
20. Jeremiah Poutasi, OL, Utah. 6'6" 320#.
21. Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon. 6'6" 300#.
22. AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina. 6'3" 311#.
23. Mario Edwards, DE/DT, Florida St. 6'3" 294#.
24. Arik Armstead, DT/DE, Oregon. 6'7" 290#.
25. Eli Harold, EDGE, Virginia. 6'4" 240#.
26. Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington. 6'1" 232#.
27. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota. 6'4" 250#.

Tier 5: (worth a top 100+ pick):

28. Ellis McCarthy, DT, UCLA. 6'5" 330#.
29. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington. 6' 198#.
30. Marcus Hardison, DE/DT, Arizona St. 6'4" 300#.
31. Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise St. 6' 220#.
32. Noah Spence, EDGE, Ohio St. 6'3" 255#.
33. Marcus Golden, EDGE, Missouri. 6'3" 260#.
34. Alex Carter, CB, Stanford. 6' 200#.
35. Quinten Rollins, CB, Miami (OH). 6' 200#.
36. Amari Cooper, WR. Alabama. 6'1" 210#.
37. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio St. 6'1" 197#.
38. Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary. 6'1" 205#.
39. Ty Sambrailo, OL, Colorado St . 6'5" 315#.
40. Josh Shaw, CB, UCLA. 6'1" 200#.
41. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin 6'1 207#.
42. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia. 6'1" 226#.
43. Paul Dawson, LB, TCU. 6'2" 230#.
44. Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA. 6' 230#.

Tier 6: (worth a day 3 pick)

45. Robert Myles, OL, Tennessee St. 6'5" 310#.
46. Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke. 6'3" 320#.
47. Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M. 6'3" 320#.
48. Clive Walford, TE, Miami. 6'3" 263#.
49. Jeff Heuerman, TE, Ohio St. 6'5" 255#.
50. Preston Smith, EDGE, Mississippi St. 6'5" 270#.
51. Vince Mayle, WR, Washington St. 6'3" 219#.
52. David Cobb, RB, Minnesota. 5'11" 229#.
53. Carl Davis, DT/DE, Iowa. 6'5" 315#.
54. Bobby Hart, OL, Florida St. 6'4" 339#.
55. John Miller, OG, Louisville. 6'2" 321#.
56. Tyler Croft, TE, Rutgers. 6'5" 240#.
57. Ben Koyack, TE, Notre Dame. 6'4" 261#.
58. Tony Lippett, WR/CB, Michigan St. 6'3" 210#.
59. Breshad Perriman, WR, UCA. 6'2" 214#.
60. Antwan Goodley, WR, Baylor. 5'10" 225#.
61. Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah. 6'1" 201#.
62. Corey Crawford, EDGE, Clemson. 6'5" 270#.
63. Zach Hodges, EDGE, Harvard. 6'3" 235#.
64. Jacquiski Tartt, S, Samford. 6'1" 218#.
65. Cody Prewitt, S, Mississippi. 6'2" 217#.

Tier 7: (worth a late day 3 pick, or UDFA signing)

66. Terry Williams, DT, East Carolina. 6'1" 350#.
67. David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa. 6'2" 229#.
68. Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi St. 5'9" 215#.
69. Matt Jones, RB, Florida. 6'1" 235#.
70. Malcolm Brown, RB, Texas. 6' 228#.
71. Karlos Williams, RB, Florida St. 6'1" 225#.
72. Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma. 6'6" 263.
73. Jesse James, TE, Penn St. 6'7" 255#.
74. Jean Sifrin, TE, UMass. 6'7" 250#.
75. MyCole Pruitt, TE, Southern Illinois. 6'3" 255#.
76. Durrell Eskridge, S, Syracuse. 6'3" 203#.
77. Adrian Amos, S, Penn St. 6' 210#.
78 Jamison Crowder, WR, Duke. 5'9" 175#.

This is a Pats-specific big board, not a general ranking of players. This list undoubtedly leaves out a lot of good prospects, and probably some people's binkies. It's the nature of a "short board" to do so. I've tried to deliberately keep this board short, and to restrict it to guys who I thought would be good fits. Need, and my personal view of the long term positional projection, factors in to the overall rankings. Again, it will undoubtedly change considerably between now and the end of April. The rankings are particularly loose within tiers, and I would expect a number of guys to move up or down a tier, or even more.

Patriot Missile · Jan 17, 2015

Interesting board there. Definitely a lot of those tiers could be torn apart by die hard cbs and Walter followers. I take it you believe that Amari Cooper is overrated I'm assuming you like Smelter and White as better fits for New England?

I like the 75 big board. I think I prefer Sherff as a true guard but see why Clemmings is a more ideal Patriots fit due to his T/G versatility.

I also believe Belichick could do mean and terrible things to defenses with Shaquille Thompson. But due to the trio of Chung,Harmon and Wilson I can see why he is lower down your board.

One trend I'm seeing is lack of 1st rd offensive line and defensive ends where the Pats will be picking in the 1st, while there is a good shot at a DT you like at where they pick. On the flip side in the 2nd,there are still some good Guards and Des to be had. So I can clearly see your reasoning for leaning towards Phillips around that 32nd pick.

mayoclinic · Jan 17, 2015

Patriot Missile said:
Interesting board there. Definitely a lot of those tiers could be torn apart by die hard cbs and Walter followers. I take it you believe that Amari Cooper is overrated I'm assuming you like Smelter and White as better fits for New England?

As I mentioned in the OP, it's not a general player rating. It's specific to the Pats, to what I see as the priorities for the team, and for how I value certain positions and player types.

Regarding offensive skill players, I have a strong personal bias towards certain positional sub-types. Using Grid's terminology, my hierarchy is:

TE > Split End / Flex End / Flex Back / Flex Wing / Wing Back > Flanker > Slot Receiver / Half Back

For an explanation of Grid's terminology see:

http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/01-yankee-vocabulary

My general rule of thumb is that the more degrees of freedom an offensive skill player can add, the more value he has to an offense. The more degrees of freedom, the harder an offense is to scheme against and to stop. I like TE's best because a true TE is a dual threat as both a blocker and as a receiver, and because they excel in the 2 areas of receiving that I value most: moving the chains and red zone productivity. I also highly value split ends (big WRs who can move the chains), flex backs ("move TEs"), RBs with both running and receiving skills who can be deal threats ("Flex Backs"), and hybrid players who can line up all over (Flex Wings and Wing Backs). I value Flex Backs much more than pure "Half Backs", RBs who are mainly running threats, which is part of why I value guys like Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi so highly relative to their peers.

Amari Cooper is a pure flanker, and a damn fine one. I did not mean to disparage him as a player. I don't have him rated as highly as I did Odell Beckham last year, but he's certainly a 1st round talent if you are going to take a flanker in the 1st round. The problem is, flankers just don't have as much positional versatility as other offensive skill positions, and I generally wouldn't take a flanker in the 1st round (much less trade 2 1st like the Bills did for Sammy Watkins; I might have used a 1st on Beckham depending on who else was available, but that was the exception for me; I also think he can develop into a FlexWing), and if I had to choose between comparably talented split ends and flankers I'd pick the split end every time. That's why I have Smelter, Kevin White and DeVante Parker rated above Cooper. I think those kind of guys could add a lot to the Pats' offense, and while I wouldn't spend a 1st on them, I do value them very highly.

That isn't to say that flankers don't have value, and a very good one like Cooper could be a great asset. I understand that others will rate him more highly. Given how I devalue the position, I'm not sure that he adds enough over Devin Smith and Tre McBride, who I think will be much better values. I also think that Smith and McBride could eventually develop as Percy Harvin kind of FlexWings, a position that I value more highly than vanilla flankers.

I hope that long-winded explanation clarifies things.

Patriot Missile said:
I like the 75 big board. I think I prefer Sherff as a true guard but see why Clemmings is a more ideal Patriots fit due to his T/G versatility.

I love Scherff's toughness, physicality and run blocking, but he is athletically limited and has much less upside than Clemmings, who I consider a much, much better prospect. I didn't differentiate within the 1st tier, but I consider Scherff a late 1st round value vs. a top 15 value for Clemmings. I'd take Clemmings over Zach Martin and Taylor Lewan from 2014, for comparison.

Patriot Missile said:
I also believe Belichick could do mean and terrible things to defenses with Shaquille Thompson. But due to the trio of Chung,Harmon and Wilson I can see why he is lower down your board.

I like Shaq Thompson very much as a player, though I don't think he's as good as Ryan Shazier was last year. I'd rate him as a late 1st/early 2nd prospect. But I don't think I would spend more than a late 2nd on that kind of player for the Pats right now given other needs and the general structure of our defense. That also led to a lower ranking for Paul Dawson and Eric Kendricks than they would get as pure players.

Patriot Missile said:
One trend I'm seeing is lack of 1st rd offensive line and defensive ends where the Pats will be picking in the 1st, while there is a good shot at a DT you like at where they pick. On the flip side in the 2nd,there are still some good Guards and Des to be had. So I can clearly see your reasoning for leaning towards Phillips around that 32nd pick.

I like Goldman/Phillips/Brown at DT and think they are worth a late 1st (or a trade up for Goldman). I probably would have had Jarran Reed in the same group if he had declared - I was bummed that he didn't. Right now I have Danny Shelton in the 2nd round, and I may end up liking Ellis McCarthy more - McCarthy is much less consistent, but more explosive, something that I value. I like the depth at EDGE and OL much better than at DT, which is part of why I am trending towards one of those 3 DTs in the 1st if they are available or within reach, followed by EDGE and OL with the next 2-3 picks. JMHO.

Thanks for the discussion.

BobDigital · Jan 18, 2015

Wow very interesting board and a lot to digest. I won't have a good response for it until i go through all the players on it.

I will say though i think your 1st tier is spot on. It is interesting you don't have Matias or Kouandjio in at all. Are they players you just don't like much or do you think they fall in a range the Pats are unlikely to pick?

Luxusdk · Jan 18, 2015

Nice board Mayo and looking forward to compare it vs Manx later on aswell.
Leonard Williams and Randy Gregory is lefted out on purpose? Can see you have Amari Cooper as a posibel top 5 pick but not the 2 others. QBs i understand... Another I miss is DGB - Just to see what "range" you got him, some would argue he fits better then Parker atleast

manxman2601 · Jan 18, 2015

That's a great list. I presume you've prioritised within tiers, in other words if your no 20 and 21 guy were still available, you'd take the 20 guy assuming you hadn't drafted that position already?

Aside from the DTs, which we've discussed, my tier I guys are pretty much identical. Any thought about Shane Ray or do you just figure he's unavailable anyway?

My round 2 tiers would be somewhat different although I like Cam Erving being so high. I know that Maxx Williams would be higher for example. And no Todd Gurley? You don't think he's worth a second round value pick up?

Anyway, great stuff that I don't disagree too much with. Looking forward to seeing how much things change between now and draft day.

mayoclinic · Jan 18, 2015

BobDigital said:
It is interesting you don't have Matias or Kouandjio in at all. Are they players you just don't like much or do you think they fall in a range the Pats are unlikely to pick?

Luxusdk said:
Leonard Williams and Randy Gregory is lefted out on purpose? Can see you have Amari Cooper as a posibel top 5 pick but not the 2 others. QBs i understand... Another I miss is DGB - Just to see what "range" you got him, some would argue he fits better then Parker atleast

manxman2601 said:
Any thought about Shane Ray or do you just figure he's unavailable anyway?

I'll respond to these together, and I really appreciate everyone's comments and feedback.

I'm a complete neophyte at this idea of a "short board", and I have no idea what the Pats actually do. I think the idea of a short board is an intriguing one, because of several reasons:

1. It's what the Pats reportedly do.
2. It allows a team - especially one that does their own scouting - to focus in more detail on a smaller group of prospects, rather than trying to evaluate hundreds of prospects. You miss out on some guys who maybe should have been on your board, but you end up with a group that you know quite well and who you think would be good fits.
3. It keeps you from getting distracted by the "noise" around players who aren't on your board.
4. It allows you to maneuver more efficiently on draft day.

So I wanted to try working with that concept. I'm sure I've made a ton of mistakes. Do you leave out guys who are highly ranked prospects who are likely to go before you pick (Leonard Williams, Randy Gregory, Shane Ray), or keep them in? With a longer board I would undoubtedly keep them in, but with a short board they take away space from guys that you actually might have a chance of drafting. I struggled with including guys like Parker, White and Cooper as well for the same reason, and maybe they should be taken out, as they will undoubtedly go much higher than I would take them; but I left them in for now, as I thought it was a useful exercise to have the discussion about them.

I struggled with putting DGB in with the day 3 tier, but I ultimately decided to leave him out because of his off-field issues, and the thought that he could be off the Pats' draft board entirely. I think you could make a good argument that he should be on the day 3 tier (I don't think I'd personally use a day 1-2 pick on him given his risk factors) instead of some of the WRs who will undoubtedly be long gone.

Good pickup on the Matias and Kouandjio omissions. Again, with a longer board both would certainly be on it. I don't think I'd take either one before day 3, and I deliberately omitted them because of space considerations.

Again, I'm shooting in the dark with how to do this. With a roughly 75 player board you are going to omit good players, and run into the criticism that you missed out on a guy others think you should have drafted. It seems to me that this is what sometimes happens with the Pats. Who they have will undoubtedly be quite different than what I have, and I'm sure this will change quite a bit around some of these issues between now and the draft.

manxman2601 · Jan 18, 2015

mayoclinic said:
I'll respond to these together, and I really appreciate everyone's comments and feedback.

I'm a complete neophyte at this idea of a "short board", and I have no idea what the Pats actually do. I think the idea of a short board is an intriguing one, because of several reasons:

1. It's what the Pats reportedly do.
2. It allows a team - especially one that does their own scouting - to focus in more detail on a smaller group of prospects, rather than trying to evaluate hundreds of prospects. You miss out on some guys who maybe should have been on your board, but you end up with a group that you know quite well and who you think would be good fits.
3. It keeps you from getting distracted by the "noise" around players who aren't on your board.
4. It allows you to maneuver more efficiently on draft day.

So I wanted to try working with that concept. I'm sure I've made a ton of mistakes. Do you leave out guys who are highly ranked prospects who are likely to go before you pick (Leonard Williams, Randy Gregory, Shane Ray), or keep them in? With a longer board I would undoubtedly keep them in, but with a short board they take away space from guys that you actually might have a chance of drafting. I struggled with including guys like Parker, White and Cooper as well for the same reason, and maybe they should be taken out, as they will undoubtedly go much higher than I would take them; but I left them in for now, as I thought it was a useful exercise to have the discussion about them.

I struggled with putting DGB in with the day 3 tier, but I ultimately decided to leave him out because of his off-field issues, and the thought that he could be off the Pats' draft board entirely. I think you could make a good argument that he should be on the day 3 tier (I don't think I'd personally use a day 1-2 pick on him given his risk factors) instead of some of the WRs who will undoubtedly be long gone.

Good pickup on the Matias and Kouandjio omissions. Again, with a longer board both would certainly be on it. I don't think I'd take either one before day 3, and I deliberately omitted them because of space considerations.

Again, I'm shooting in the dark with how to do this. With a roughly 75 player board you are going to omit good players, and run into the criticism that you missed out on a guy others think you should have drafted. It seems to me that this is what sometimes happens with the Pats. Who they have will undoubtedly be quite different than what I have, and I'm sure this will change quite a bit around some of these issues between now and the draft.

The short board is very hard to do, I agree. By its very nature though, the omissions stand out. I think that if I give one a go, I'll point out why I left key prospects off the board to help save time later.

mayoclinic · Jan 18, 2015

manxman2601 said:
My round 2 tiers would be somewhat different although I like Cam Erving being so high. I know that Maxx Williams would be higher for example. And no Todd Gurley? You don't think he's worth a second round value pick up?

Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley were listed at 41-42 on the OP board, as "top 100" picks. They were the #3 and 4 RBs listed, behind Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi. I could argue for Gordon's omission altogether, as he will undoubtedly be long gone. I suspect that Gurley will be too, though he could conceivable drop because of his ACL. I consider both to be "halfbacks", which I don't value as much as backs with receiving skills who could be dual threats, which is why I dropped them out of the 2nd round discussion. That could easily be a mistake - if they developed receiving skills, both would be fabulous weapons. I probably prefer Gurley to Gordon, but I listed him just behind because of the injury factor.

Another major omission was Ameer Abdullah. Great back, and my omission is not a judgment of him as a prospect. But again, working with the idea of a short board, I decided to leave him off because I felt that his skill set did not merit as high a pick as he would undoubtedly command. Quite possibly a mistake, and one that could change down the road.

I haven't made up my mind about Maxx Williams yet. He's undoubtedly the top TE in this class, but he's not much of a blocker and he doesn't have an elite skill set. He has very good hands. I could see him moving either up or down on my rankings. I decided to put him in the 2nd round tier as a mid-range starting place for where I could see him ending up. I prioritized other positions and values ahead of TE - again, not a judgment on the player.

I'm sure I made tons of mistakes in doing this. It was a fun learning process.

mayoclinic · Jan 18, 2015

manxman2601 said:
The short board is very hard to do, I agree. By its very nature though, the omissions stand out. I think that if I give one a go, I'll point out why I left key prospects off the board to help save time later.

I'm guessing that some of my later versions will omit entirely players who I think will be gone before I would take them, and add some guys who I like as later round values (Shaq Mason, for example, who's omission was purely due to a numbers issue). I'm very curious as to how the Pats handle this issue.

I should also clarify that my biggest purpose in doing this is for my own education. In past years, I have tried to do an exercise, once the underclassmen declarations are complete, to get a sense of the "shape" of the draft and focus my own re-evaluation efforts over the next 3 months. I have generally done this as some kind of mock. The mock is almost always way off, but it helps me get a sense of who the players are and who could fit which teams. This year I thought I'd do it with the "short board" idea. I may do a mock as well, but its a ton of work.

manxman2601 · Jan 18, 2015

mayoclinic said:
Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley were listed at 41-42 on the OP board, as "top 100" picks. They were the #3 and 4 RBs listed, behind Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi. I could argue for Gordon's omission altogether, as he will undoubtedly be long gone. I suspect that Gurley will be too, though he could conceivable drop because of his ACL. I consider both to be "halfbacks", which I don't value as much as backs with receiving skills who could be dual threats, which is why I dropped them out of the 2nd round discussion. That could easily be a mistake - if they developed receiving skills, both would be fabulous weapons. I probably prefer Gurley to Gordon, but I listed him just behind because of the injury factor.

Another major omission was Ameer Abdullah. Great back, and my omission is not a judgment of him as a prospect. But again, working with the idea of a short board, I decided to leave him off because I felt that his skill set did not merit as high a pick as he would undoubtedly command. Quite possibly a mistake, and one that could change down the road.

I haven't made up my mind about Maxx Williams yet. He's undoubtedly the top TE in this class, but he's not much of a blocker and he doesn't have an elite skill set. He has very good hands. I could see him moving either up or down on my rankings. I decided to put him in the 2nd round tier as a mid-range starting place for where I could see him ending up. I prioritized other positions and values ahead of TE - again, not a judgment on the player.

I'm sure I made tons of mistakes in doing this. It was a fun learning process.

It will be interesting to see how much you change it after the Senior Bowl and combine. I missed Gurley, apologies.

manxman2601 · Jan 18, 2015

mayoclinic said:
I'm guessing that some of my later versions will omit entirely players who I think will be gone before I would take them, and add some guys who I like as later round values (Shaq Mason, for example, who's omission was purely due to a numbers issue). I'm very curious as to how the Pats handle this issue.

I don't understand your last here. I very much doubt the Pats leave someone off their board because of a numbers issue. The board is short because they have strict guidelines for putting someone on their board in the first place and because they are dispassionate about putting their board together. It's why I could never do it properly because I fall in love with my binkies.

mayoclinic · Jan 18, 2015

manxman2601 said:
I don't understand your last here. I very much doubt the Pats leave someone off their board because of a numbers issue. The board is short because they have strict guidelines for putting someone on their board in the first place and because they are dispassionate about putting their board together. It's why I could never do it properly because I fall in love with my binkies.

You may be right, though it seems to me that any time you use a short board there will be numbers omissions. I ended up with 78 prospects on my board. I wanted to squeeze in others, but decided that if the board got much larger it would defeat my stated purpose.

Your point about "strict guidelines" is a very good one, but IRRC the Pats do tag prospects who they put on their board who are exceptions. "Height deficient" is one of those tags, I believe.

I should note that my final tier was pretty short. In actuality, I would hope that our late round picks will be filled by higher ranked guys who slip (Smelter), as was the case with Alfonzo Dennard in 2012. Roster competition also factored in - my final tier was mostly RBs and TEs, as I could see those guys competing for a roster spot. I left off guys like Shaq Riddick and Lynden Trail, not because I don't think that they are prospects worth a late round pick or that they don't meet guidelines, but because I don't really see what value they could provide beyond what Zach Moore and Michael Buchanan already provide. I only had 3 "day 3" EDGE players because of this: Preston Smith, Corey Crawford, and Zach Hodges. Similarly, Terry Williams was really the only DT I had listed as a day 3 pick, as I would want any DT to be able to compete for a roster spot. There's no need to waste draft capital on camp bodies.

Brady6 · Jan 18, 2015

mayoclinic said:
As was discussed last year, the Pats reportedly use a "short" big board of about 75 players based on their own scouting, as opposed to using a much larger big board and basing things on the national scouting services. This may end up omitting some very good players, but tends to focus on guys who are good fits, and may help improve maneuverability during the draft.

With the 2015 draft class about set, here's my VERY preliminary board of guys who I think could be good fits for the Pats. Rankings are very loose, and will undoubtedly get revised many times over the next 3 1/2 months.

Tier 1: (worth a 1st round pick)

1. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida St. 6'4" 320#.
2. TJ Clemmings, OL, Pittsburgh. 6'5" 305#.
3. Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma. 6'6" 334#.
4. La'el Collins, OL, LSU. 6'5" 321#.
5. Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida. 6'2" 262#.
6. Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky. 6'4" 267#.
7. Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa. 6'5" 320#.
8. Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas. 6'2" 320#.

Tier 2: (worth a top 40 pick)

9. Cam Erving, OL, Florida. 6'5" 308#.
10. Ereck Flowers, OL, Miami. 6'5" 324#.
11. Bernardrick McKinney, LB/EDGE, Mississippi St. 6'5" 250#.

Tier 3: (worth a top 50 pick)

12. Max Valles, EDGE, Virginia. 6'5" 240#.
13. Danielle Hunter, EDGE, LSU. 6'6" 240#.
14. Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana. 6'1" 210#.
15. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington. 6'3" 332#.

Tier 4: (worth a 2nd round pick)

16. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6'3" 222#.
17. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville. 6'3" 209#.
18. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia. 6'3" 210#.
19. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE, UCLA. 6'3" 270#.
20. Jeremiah Poutasi, OL, Utah. 6'6" 320#.
21. Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon. 6'6" 300#.
22. AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina. 6'3" 311#.
23. Mario Edwards, DE/DT, Florida St. 6'3" 294#.
24. Arik Armstead, DT/DE, Oregon. 6'7" 290#.
25. Eli Harold, EDGE, Virginia. 6'4" 240#.
26. Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington. 6'1" 232#.
27. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota. 6'4" 250#.

Tier 5: (worth a top 100+ pick):

28. Ellis McCarthy, DT, UCLA. 6'5" 330#.
29. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington. 6' 198#.
30. Marcus Hardison, DE/DT, Arizona St. 6'4" 300#.
31. Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise St. 6' 220#.
32. Noah Spence, EDGE, Ohio St. 6'3" 255#.
33. Marcus Golden, EDGE, Missouri. 6'3" 260#.
34. Alex Carter, CB, Stanford. 6' 200#.
35. Quinten Rollins, CB, Miami (OH). 6' 200#.
36. Amari Cooper, WR. Alabama. 6'1" 210#.
37. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio St. 6'1" 197#.
38. Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary. 6'1" 205#.
39. Ty Sambrailo, OL, Colorado St . 6'5" 315#.
40. Josh Shaw, CB, UCLA. 6'1" 200#.
41. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin 6'1 207#.
42. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia. 6'1" 226#.
43. Paul Dawson, LB, TCU. 6'2" 230#.
44. Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA. 6' 230#.

Tier 6: (worth a day 3 pick)

45. Robert Myles, OL, Tennessee St. 6'5" 310#.
46. Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke. 6'3" 320#.
47. Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M. 6'3" 320#.
48. Clive Walford, TE, Miami. 6'3" 263#.
49. Jeff Heuerman, TE, Ohio St. 6'5" 255#.
50. Preston Smith, EDGE, Mississippi St. 6'5" 270#.
51. Vince Mayle, WR, Washington St. 6'3" 219#.
52. David Cobb, RB, Minnesota. 5'11" 229#.
53. Carl Davis, DT/DE, Iowa. 6'5" 315#.
54. Bobby Hart, OL, Florida St. 6'4" 339#.
55. John Miller, OG, Louisville. 6'2" 321#.
56. Tyler Croft, TE, Rutgers. 6'5" 240#.
57. Ben Koyack, TE, Notre Dame. 6'4" 261#.
58. Tony Lippett, WR/CB, Michigan St. 6'3" 210#.
59. Breshad Perriman, WR, UCA. 6'2" 214#.
60. Antwan Goodley, WR, Baylor. 5'10" 225#.
61. Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah. 6'1" 201#.
62. Corey Crawford, EDGE, Clemson. 6'5" 270#.
63. Zach Hodges, EDGE, Harvard. 6'3" 235#.
64. Jacquiski Tartt, S, Samford. 6'1" 218#.
65. Cody Prewitt, S, Mississippi. 6'2" 217#.

Tier 7: (worth a late day 3 pick, or UDFA signing)

66. Terry Williams, DT, East Carolina. 6'1" 350#.
67. David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa. 6'2" 229#.
68. Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi St. 5'9" 215#.
69. Matt Jones, RB, Florida. 6'1" 235#.
70. Malcolm Brown, RB, Texas. 6' 228#.
71. Karlos Williams, RB, Florida St. 6'1" 225#.
72. Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma. 6'6" 263.
73. Jesse James, TE, Penn St. 6'7" 255#.
74. Jean Sifrin, TE, UMass. 6'7" 250#.
75. MyCole Pruitt, TE, Southern Illinois. 6'3" 255#.
76. Durrell Eskridge, S, Syracuse. 6'3" 203#.
77. Adrian Amos, S, Penn St. 6' 210#.
78 Jamison Crowder, WR, Duke. 5'9" 175#.

This is a Pats-specific big board, not a general ranking of players. This list undoubtedly leaves out a lot of good prospects, and probably some people's binkies. It's the nature of a "short board" to do so. I've tried to deliberately keep this board short, and to restrict it to guys who I thought would be good fits. Need, and my personal view of the long term positional projection, factors in to the overall rankings. Again, it will undoubtedly change considerably between now and the end of April. The rankings are particularly loose within tiers, and I would expect a number of guys to move up or down a tier, or even more.

Very nice Mayo! I agree with basically all your choices.

Luxusdk · Jan 18, 2015

Mayo if we ( Patriots community ) useing this as "trying to create a Patriots shortlist" then this shows RB and probably also G gonna be picked day 3. All this ofc depends what direction BB wanna go. We all would love both lines to get a boost but I wouldn't be surpriced if RB or WR are picked much higher then we prefers.

mayoclinic · Jan 18, 2015

Luxusdk said:
Mayo if we ( Patriots community ) useing this as "trying to create a Patriots shortlist" then this shows RB and probably also G gonna be picked day 3. All this ofc depends what direction BB wanna go. We all would love both lines to get a boost but I wouldn't be surpriced if RB or WR are picked much higher then we prefers.

I think day 3 is likely for RB and WR, unless someone slips. I think an OL will be taken day 1-2, and another on day 3. JMHO. It would't surprise me at all to see one of RB/WR picked on day 2.

mayoclinic · Jan 19, 2015

#32 on the OP board, EDGE player Noah Spence, is reportedly transferring to Eastern Kentucky and is not on the final lift of declared underclassmen.

mayoclinic · Jan 19, 2015

Interesting initial top 50 list from Daniel Jeremiah:

http://www.nfl.com/top50

Some interesting rankings, including Arik Amstead at #13 overall.

Marqui · Jan 19, 2015

Who's the best fit for the Pats at guard?

dliverey · Jan 20, 2015

I think that Jamil Douglas would be a good fit as a LG and I love Laken Tomlinson as a RG.

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