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Luck has a very good career trajectory going. 1st 3 seasons, 33-15 reg season. 1st season- playoff game, 3rd season - 3 playoff wins, 2014 4700 yds, 1st in TDs with 40 etc. He has a 2.4 career INT rate which is between Brady and Favre so hes not wild with the ball as people think. However he is young and as as a QB that is a shortcoming.
I feel confident in saying that once Indy surrounds Luck with more talent on offense (legit running game) and acquires more talent on the defensive side of the ball, they will be a legit SB contender. With that said, they aren't there yet.
The story is really Colts GM Ryan Grigson. He's an outstanding football talent who knows how to assess talent, and is building a superb team. The Colts also do a nice job cap-wise. Grigson's biggest test comes with Luck's first non-rookie contract. The Colts will be the Patriots main rival for a long time.
http://www.colts.com/team/staff/Ryan-Grigson/d89d12a6-623d-4ccb-ae8b-9c3e20720b50
Cowherd is wrong about the Patriots having a precipitous decline after Brady retires, in my opinion. As long as the Krafts and Belichick are in place, the Patriots will be plenty competitive.