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Good stuff. Let the disucssion begin
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I know the Pats usually use a contain rush with mobile QBs, but they don't do that with Luck as much. The Pats have found that Luck is susceptible to the A gap blitz and have given him fits with that the last two times he faced the Pats defense. I expect the Pats to use it this tomorrow although you gotta pick your battles with it. They can work overtime to defend it, but I have a feeling it may be the weakness of Luck and their offense. Every QB has a weakness and that looks to be Luck's.
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Personally, I think the biggest thing the Pats needs to focus on is physicalness. Whether it is a Luck led Colts or a Manning led Colts, they are still a finesse team. You punch them in the mouth and they fold. I know this is a simplistic strategy, but that is why the Pats won the last two games. They just lined up and ran the ball down their throats and they manhandled the Colts receivers on defense.
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I know it may drive people crazy, but I would adopt a more of a bend don't break style of defense of the past. Go with the two high safeties and force Luck to get yards at 5-10 yards a chunk. Luck is a gun slinger. He needs to pick up yards at 15-30 a pop. You make him do the Brady thing and do a slow methodical drive of 10-12 plays at 6-8 yards a play and he gets restless and makes mistakes by trying to force passes deep. This why I always laugh when people compare Luck to Manning, but he is a Farve clone in this respect. He doesn't have the patience to do long controlled drives.
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Going back to the pass rush, this is why I think the Pats do far less contain rush for Luck. They do blitz more against him to force him to pass quickly and not wait for his receivers to get open. The fact he doesn't have a lot of weapons plays into this strategy that they can afford to not drop the extra man into coverage.
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The Pats have to be concern about Daniel Herron if they follow this strategy. Luck has been throwing to him a lot in the playoffs (18 catches for 117 yards). I didn't watch the Bengals game, but watching the Broncos game he was more a last resort dump off when nothing else is open. So I am not sure they will design passes to him.
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I still think the Colts' defense is overrated. They played the Bengals without AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham. The Bengals' offense struggled a lot during the regular season when Green was out. Against Denver, they had it easy. Force Manning to throw more than 5 yards outside the numbers and Manning couldn't hit the side of the barn. Their defense has improved, but they faced two offenses fighting with the proverbial one hand behind their backs.
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One thing people are missing when they have gushed over Luck this post season, they scored 26 and 24 points. Against the Bengals, they had favorable field position for most of the game. They had drives that started on their own 36, 39, 43, and the Bengals 47 and came away with three FGs and a TD. They scored three times on 11 drives against the Broncos and one of their TD was on a drive starting on the Broncos' 41 yard line. Their offensive struggles that they had at the end of the season have improved, but they are still not a great offense.
You may be right, but its not what I'd do very much. Maybe its the coach in me, but I can't imagine that the Colts haven't prepared what is necessary to stop that formation, or at least control it. If anything , if I was going to use this formation, I'd be passing out of it.
- On offense, I think the Pats will be in the heavy set for a lot of the game (sorry Ken, I disagree with you although I think we will see it less). I think the Pats will pass a lot more than the previous two games, but I think the Pats are going to out muscle the Colts at the line of scrimmage. Their defensive line isn't big and more of a speed rushing line. I think the Pats will do a lot more play action passes.
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I think it will be a big game for Lafell and Gronk. I think the Pats are going to pass to receivers who can run through this smallish defensive backfield. Gronk will be throwing people out of the club left and right. I think the reason why their secondary did so good with the Broncos receivers was because they didn't have anyone who could out muscle their DBs and LBs. This is not an Edelman and Amendola type of game (although they may get their share).