Idle thoughts - The WOW edition

PatsFanInVa · Jan 11, 2015

#1 Good thing all season... THIS TEAM DOES NOT QUIT.

This keeps happening. Terrible memories of the "last time" we got behind "to this team..." Something seems familiar, it seems like I've been fooling myself, and then this team comes back to win it. Twice, this time. Felt like the 2013 championship game at first. But I kept reminding myself what this (2014-15) team does in 3rd and 4th quarters.

Some trouble on Revis Island... hoping it's a passing thing, no pun intended. I really hope to see him shutting down half the field again (without the flags thank you very much) next Sunday.

Was it just me, or did it look like mutual respect in the handshakes etc. after the game? Like, smiles on both sides, even the losing side? As if both sides knew they'd just been involved in a classic.

Batman · Jan 11, 2015

patfanken said:
Yes but think of the odds. If the Pats had gone the S route it would have worked this way.

Allen would have taken the snap with 14 second to go. Conservatively he could have easily taken 5 seconds off the clock running around the endzone before going down or out of the endzone, probably more. That would have left 9 seconds and the Pats punting from their 20. Allen would have been kicking with the wind, so a kick to the 20-25 would have been a reasonable expectation. A good run back would see it get back to the 40-45, and that's a good run back and pretty much run out the clock. It would have taken a 50 yd run back to get it to the Pats 30 yd line for a 47 yd FG attempt into the wind on a very cold night

That' is possible but not more possible than that hail mary.

I think that BB wanted to force them to need a TD not a FG. Say the Ravens ellect not to return te ball and get 9 seconds that can be 2 plays if the pass is complete and player gets out of bounds FG kicked, jump ball joe goes deep gets a PI FG Kicked, Allen shanks the Kick out of bounds FG may be possible or finally his kick isn't as long as was hoped and Ravens call a fair catch and have a Free Kick no one to block it bigger run up if needed and makes it.

Punting it away forcing a TD to be needed allows you to defend 5 guys with 8 which is decent odds if you ask me.

RelocatedPatFan · Jan 11, 2015

JayNM said:
Where's the 12th point

#12 stands on his own. It read (to me) as "Brady. A post season Warrior. A man who is all about team football."

Or PFK just may have written 11 twice

DarrylS · Jan 11, 2015

Well written and expected.. have to disagree with the premise of poor clock management, imo it says more about BB's confidence in ST's and defense.. to hand the ball off or do something fumblerooski is too risky in this situation..

The sequence of plays, from NFL.com.. when they took over the ball there was a time out due to change of possession... they had to kill 99 seconds, and could at the most could kill 90... they took 87 seconds off the clock.

New England Patriots at 01:39
1-10-NE 20(1:39) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 18 for -2 yards. (42 of 45 seconds used)
2-12-NE 18( .57) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 16 for -2 yards. (45 seconds used)
3-14-NE 16( .15) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 15 for -1 yards. (Ravens call a time out)

The other issue about yesterday's game is the appalling commentary from Patsfans.com posters in the Ravens/Pats game day thread... I checked several times during the game and was amazed at the level of negativity about the familiar("Felgerian" and "Borgian") themes of Brady is declining, BB does not know how to coach, Patricia needs to be replaced... are all these folks from the "short attention span theater", either that or they were drunk or do not understand this team..

RelocatedPatFan · Jan 11, 2015

In a game like this, lots of individual players made some great plays. Arrington had a couple plays (I think on the same series) where he took on an OL to force Forsett back inside to an awaiting Hightower (for a real solid tackle). If Forsett got outside, he could have gone for quite a few more yards.

Then a couple plays later, he slid inside to stop a run after a 2 yard gain (in the center of the field). I was like #25 getting the tackle on that play (it was a quick developing play and I would never have thought he covered that much ground.) Orginally, I though it was Chung (because I only saw the 2 in 20, but after I saw the 25, I was like WTF -- in a good way)

pencilneckgeek · Jan 11, 2015

DarrylS said:
Well written and expected.. have to disagree with the premise of poor clock management, imo it says more about BB's confidence in ST's and defense.. to hand the ball off or do something fumblerooski is too risky in this situation..

The sequence of plays, from NFL.com.. when they took over the ball there was a time out due to change of possession... they had to kill 99 seconds, and could at the most could kill 90... they took 87 seconds off the clock.

New England Patriots at 01:39

1-10-NE 20(1:39) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 18 for -2 yards. (42 of 45 seconds used)

2-12-NE 18( .57) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 16 for -2 yards. (45 seconds used)

3-14-NE 16( .15) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 15 for -1 yards. (Ravens call a time out)

No. That was bad clock management. Hand the ball off and use-up 3-5 more seconds per play. (Blount might not get anywhere, but he is still takes a while to bring down.) Then let Tom throw it high and deep out of bounds on the final play, and the Ravens never get the ball. I would guess that Bill was motivated by a deep respect for the Raven's defense and memories of the Pisarcik fumble, which was the beginning of the end for the Giant's season and helped lead to Bill starting his amazing run with the NYG . It's not unreasonable to worry about a fumble, but any time you have the ball, you have more control than if you are punting it away, so I would call it excessive respect for the Ravens defense, because it was clear that the strategy followed was going to give jump ball Joe one more shot.

scout · Jan 11, 2015

Love your posts! A couple of things.
1. Patriots blown coverages; Haven't seen this happen more then once per game. Seemed like it happened too many times yesterday.
2. Have been waiting since Edelman was drafted for him to throw a pass. Patience paid off.
The clock hindsight is interesting. I think too many things could possibly go wrong with taking the safety. Like what if there isn't enough time to run around. Like someone posted, the game winning field goal. Yesterday proved that there is not a better coach in the NFL then BB. When rule committees are brought up in discussions, in this case it is a result of coaching ahead of the curve.

PScottman · Jan 11, 2015

patfanken said:
5. Bad thing - One of the biggest surprised I had when I went through the stats, was finding the number of penalties and yards were almost exactly equal. I was surprised because while watching the game I never had a stronger feeling that the game was being officiated more one sided that that one. It seemed to me that every key call or non-call was slanted against the Pats, starting with the reversal of a key 3rd down pass on the Pats first possession.

I would concede that by the letter of the law, you could have called Revis' PI legit. In fact I was surprised Revis even bothered since he was in such good position. My problem was that it was called in the context of the game. Gronk was literally mugged just the series before on a 3rd down play with no call. Revis did have his hand across his chest, but it didn't interfere with Smith's ability to catch the ball, unlike the grab of Lafell's hand.

It was the same way his tug on Smith's shirt on the HUGE TO on the GL play was a foul by the letter of the law, but not in the context of the game, It ultimately never interfered with Smith's availability to be a target for Flacco, as he shrugged off Revis' tug. In the same vain, time and time again I saw Lafell and Gronk being constantly grabbed and hit 10 yds or more down field without calls. The only call I saw in the Pats favor was the Steve Smith unsportsman like conduct when he got caught retaliating to a Browner late push.

BTW- When was the last thine there was an NFL game where offensive holding wasn't called on either side. Because there wasn't one called last night, though there certainly could have been a few on the last 2 Raven's drives

Okay, I'll be the idiot who brings it up....is anyone else starting to really get an NBA vibe to refereeing in the NFL?

I literally don't watch any basketball anymore (college or pro) because of the seriously skewed refereeing DESIGNED to shape the product NOT call the rules as written!!!!! And the NFL the past two years especially, have inexorably moved in the same direction both with the rules changes, but more so shaping interpretation of said rules to allow the flags to change the course of the game rather than being a reaction to the plays within it.

Frustrating. I hope I'm dead wrong.

DarrylS · Jan 11, 2015

pencilneckgeek said:
No. That was bad clock management. Hand the ball off and use-up 3-5 more seconds per play. (Blount might not get anywhere, but he is still takes a while to bring down.) Then let Tom throw it high and deep out of bounds on the final play, and the Ravens never get the ball. I would guess that Bill was motivated by a deep respect for the Raven's defense and memories of the Pisarcik fumble, which was the beginning of the end for the Giant's season and helped lead to Bill starting his amazing run with the NYG . It's not unreasonable to worry about a fumble, but any time you have the ball, you have more control than if you are punting it away, so I would call it excessive respect for the Ravens defense, because it was clear that the strategy followed was going to give jump ball Joe one more shot.

Would not take the risk of handing the ball off... they were deep in their own endzone, they had 99 seconds to kill they took off 84 seconds out of a possible 90..

BB showed confidence in his ST's and Defense, the Hail Mary Pass from 52 yards has close to a 0% of success..

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

patsfanincleveland · Jan 11, 2015

PatCat said:
Good read. I hope some of the terrible play can be blamed on not playing a meaningful game in 3 wks. I agree with your lafell point, he brings a needed element to the WR position.
Gronk is Gronk and big ups to Amendola, I'm really happy for the guy as he was huge for us out there.

Another way to look at it is for the final 45 minutes, the Patriots won 35-17 and this difference was aided by that curious Revis call.

Great opening two drives.......can it be sustained/

What will be interesting is BB's approach to week 17 in the future.

Gwedd · Jan 11, 2015

DarrylS said:
The other issue about yesterday's game is the appalling commentary from Patsfans.com posters in the Ravens/Pats game day thread... I checked several times during the game and was amazed at the level of negativity about the familiar("Felgerian" and "Borgian") themes of Brady is declining, BB does not know how to coach, Patricia needs to be replaced... are all these folks from the "short attention span theater", either that or they were drunk or do not understand this team..

I long ago stopped treading into that sewer of pollyannas, chicken-littles and trolls. Last night, during halftime, I took a peek. Pages 94-98, and my suspicions were confirmed. It was actually worse than you mentioned, and added in was a level of vulgarity that I just hadn't seen in a long while. I did note that a majority of the commenters on those pages seemed to have <1K comments, and most ones a handful to a couple hundred.

I see no reason to participate in that thread, or any others while the game in in progress, unless I was unable to watch the game and had to listen to it on the radio. Just waves of negativity, cursing, and trollishness enough to wonder if the collective ages of the participants didn't hover around 14-15.

Gwedd · Jan 11, 2015

DarrylS said:
Would not take the risk of handing the ball off... they were deep in their own endzone, they had 99 seconds to kill they took off 84 seconds out of a possible 90..

BB showed confidence in his ST's and Defense, the Hail Mary Pass from 52 yards has close to a 0% of success..

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

I was thinking, last night, about the Denver game back in (2005?) where BB took the safety towards the end of the game, having great faith in his ST and Defense to make the Broncos go 3 & out. They performed magnificently then, and I expected that they could have also done the same thing last night.

Ryan takes the snap, then sprints to his left, runs maybe 3-4 yards, then a quick cut to his left and into the end zone. Safety, then kick and the Ravens are, as Ken says, likely getting the ball at the 20 +/-. However, given the wind at his back, the cold air, and Ryan's bootability, it might have been able to drop that rock insode the 10.

The British SAS, their Special Forces, motto is "Who Dares, Wins". I see that as a perfect mantra for these sorts of games. Play like there is no tomorrow, because for one team there isn't. Doesn't mean to play stupidly, with do discipline, etc, but take the risks you ordinarily wouldn't take, because it might be the payoff that lets you put the game away.

Anyway, that's how I see it. Others mileage may vary, of course.

Kulko · Jan 11, 2015

WhoaDirty said:
If the Pats gave up a safety, the Ravens could have kicked a FG to win. Could have been the consideration there.

I think they just got surprised.
Just line up in Victory Formation, habve Brady retreat 5 steps and wait for the rush to get there. That should take the necessary Time of the clock.

buile · Jan 11, 2015

JayNM said:
Where's the 12th point

There's no other 12 besides Brady.

patchick · Jan 11, 2015

DarrylS said:
Would not take the risk of handing the ball off... they were deep in their own endzone, they had 99 seconds to kill they took off 84 seconds out of a possible 90..

...and it was the very end of a frigid game where a lot of fumbles had been pried from cold, stiff fingers. I think that might well have been a factor, because BB has been very creative in the past about using up extra second. Remember the game that ended on a 4th down with Brady running around deep in the pocket then throwing a long ball out of bounds?

Pat the Pats Fan · Jan 11, 2015

Thanks for the great write up, it's my favorite read after a Pats game.

patfanken · Jan 11, 2015

patsfanincleveland said:
Another way to look at it is for the final 45 minutes, the Patriots won 35-17 and this difference was aided by that curious Revis call.

Great opening two drives.......can it be sustained/

What will be interesting is BB's approach to week 17 in the future.

That's an interesting take. 35-17 was the kind of score most of us "optimists" predicted, and if you forgot the first 7 or 8 minutes of the game, that's what you got.

vyrago · Jan 11, 2015

AzorianPats said:
Ken's Idle thoughts is one of the best reads on this site. I look forward to it every week.

Absolutely!!

Oswlek · Jan 11, 2015

patfanken said:
c. BTW - how many people at your bar were calling for the Allen to take the ball, and run into the endzone and run around for a few seconds before taking S. I know there were several at my bar, including myself. I was proud to see so many knowledgeable people who were aware of that option. I know I wasn't alone here.

With a 4 point lead, this was actually not that great of an idea. It would potentially set up a situation with the Ravens having the ball with seven seconds on the ~30 needed a FG to win. Long odds, of course, but no longer than being at the 40 needing a TD to win.

EDIT because I saw this later:

Allen would have been kicking with the wind, so a kick to the 20-25 would have been a reasonable expectation. A good run back would see it get back to the 40-45, and that's a good run back and pretty much run out the clock. It would have taken a 50 yd run back to get it to the Pats 30 yd line for a 47 yd FG attempt into the wind on a very cold night

That' is possible but not more possible than that hail mary.

Unlike a punt, the kick itself takes no time off the clock, so that would actually be ~30 with 9 seconds left if the receiver downs it. Then you just need one 30 yard play (or interference) to get within long FG range. I'd say that is more likely than a Hail Mary, but even if I'm wrong, it isn't a blatantly superior option. If NE had a 6 point lead, I bet they would have taken the safety.

Oswlek · Jan 11, 2015

patfanken said:
That's an interesting take. 35-17 was the kind of score most of us "optimists" predicted, and if you forgot the first 7 or 8 minutes of the game, that's what you got.

Ha! My son and I were working on square roots, so the score we came up with was 36-16.

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