A big difference between 2014 and other recent years? Health

Gronkowski123 said:

the line is shaky...idk the receivers don't scare anyone except for gronk.
ravens are going to rush 4/drop everyone into coverage. we've seen that before. if suggs/ngata/elvis get some pressure it's going to be a long afternoon.

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You're right.

Abandon all hope ye who enter here!

robertweathers said:

The difference here is that JMD and TB need to have confidence in the D and not give in to forcing plays.

I posted in another thread some numbers...
TBs 1st 14 playoff games...20TDs, 9 INTs. 24 ppg, 18 ppg allowed.
TBs last 14 playoff games, 23TD, 17 INTs, 25ppg, 23ppg allowed.

It's all on the defense and TB needs to trust them- so does JMD.

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Is the defense allowing more points because TB is forcing plays and giving the ball away or is the defense allowing more points because the offense has sputtered forcing TB to force plays that aren't there leading to more giveaways?

I don't think it's as cut and dry as your stats and theory make it out to be.

Our offense hasn't played good against the best defenses in playoffs recently (but what offense does? These are playoff defenses).

The key here, as DI said, is that our offense is healthy for a change and LaFell is the best outside receiver we've had in the playoffs since Moss.

Tunescribe said:

Imagine if we still had Mayo, Ridley and a healthy Easley.

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True. But realistically, it's not possible to go through the season completely unscathed. Given what we've had in some years, this is relatively good, as the OP points out.

strngplyr said:

Is the defense allowing more points because TB is forcing plays and giving the ball away or is the defense allowing more points because the offense has sputtered forcing TB to force plays that aren't there leading to more giveaways?

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Both

strngplyr said:

I don't think it's as cut and dry as your stats and theory make it out to be.

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I think b/c the D is not as good, TB and the coaching staff feel as if they need to do more.

strngplyr said:

Our offense hasn't played good against the best defenses in playoffs recently (but what offense does? These are playoff defenses).

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Which is why with a good D, the offense can be much more patient in it's execution. I also think the running games in 01-04 had a little more of a commitment behind them than the 07-present teams.

strngplyr said:

The key here, as DI said, is that our offense is healthy for a change and LaFell is the best outside receiver we've had in the playoffs since Moss.

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An outside receiver that can make plays helps for sure but IMO the core reason why the Pats have faltered in the '10, '11, '12 and '13 playoffs has been a) health and b) the D can't stop teams and get off the field.

strngplyr said:

LaFell is the best outside receiver we've had in the playoffs since Moss.

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They're 2 totally different receivers, even if they both play outside. So that's kind of a deceiving point to make. But I get what you're saying.

Just got done watching the 2012 Raven Patriots playoff game (DVR'd it from last night - able to rewind/freeze as needed). Yes, it is a big defensive "difference between 2014" and the 2012 D that lost to the Ravens in the playoffs.

2014 Secondary: Revis, Browner, McCourty, Chung, Arrington, Ryan
2012 Secondary: Arrington, Dennard, McCourty, Gregory, Moore, Cole (Talib was hurt/out)
** 2014 vs 2012?? Forgetaboutit

2014 DTs: Wilfork, Branch, Siliga, Jones
2012 DTs: Wilfork, Deaderick, Love, Beaunharis
** IMHO a markedly better 2014 run stuffing group ((hugely better from 2013))

2014 DE's: Ninko, Jones, Ayers.......ummm.....drawing a blank (too much liquid joy?)
2012 DE's: Ninko, Jones.....more blanks
** Jones was a rookie 2012, clearly a better player now. I think it is fair to say Ninko -/+ Ninko. Hard to see a significant difference in the groups (didn't notice the DEs much in the game)

2014 LB's: Hightower, Collins, Casillas, Fleming
2012 LB's: Hightower, Mayo, Spikes, Cunningham, Rivera.
** Too bad about Mayo. His health would make this group clearly better than 2012. Arguably he is the lone significant injury loss. The 2012 LB group had some hitting power but the second half of the game was painful to watch the mid field pass coverage. Spikes, based on this one game only (as unfair as that is), was overrated. A fire player and a hard hitter but watching his overall agility was painful. Now add Cunningham to the mix too, and Gregory was a step behind too often (Mayo was iffy). 2014 has a better ability to provide some level of coverage, some athleticism. I like the playmaking ability better with this group.

**How BB made that 2012 D good enough to get where the Patriots got is mystifying.
**If the Patriots can get just a very modest pass rush going? The Ravens will struggle to score anything of significance.

Offense?
2012 Offensive main targets: AH, Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Vereen, Edelman
2014 Offensive main targets; Gronk, Lafell, Amendola, Vereen, Edelman, Tyms
** sad but true, this offense would be loaded with targets if one of them wasn't a murderer. AH added some excellent production in the 2012 game and what a bonus for this year's group. Still hard to believe....

2012 OL v 2014 OL = ??

Raven notes: (a) Glad Boldin will not be there for the Ravens. He was a killer to the Patriots in that game. (b) Patriots shot themselves in the foot multiple times in the second half. You don't do that and win. (c) The middle of the field was just such fertile ground from the Raven passing game (in the second half). That just cannot repeat itself....

True, but you're not supposed to say anything or you Jinx it.

Now if Gronk goes down I'm blaming you.

TBR said:

They're 2 totally different receivers, even if they both play outside. So that's kind of a deceiving point to make. But I get what you're saying.

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Absolutely, but LaFell can threaten most of the field from outside the hashmarks, I don't want an outside "deep threat", just players who can threaten every part of the field with success from all receiver positions.

We finally have that type of balance, Both LaFell and Edelman are capable of lining up anywhere and they have both shown ability to get behind or underneath the defense at every level, Gronkowski can do anything from anywhere, somehow, I'll never figure that guy out, and Vereen, while not as successful lately as a pass catcher as he has shown he can be, can even threaten deep when matched up properly.

Only really mentioned LaFell as an outside receiver to kind of signify the amount of diversity that this years passing offense possesses.

robertweathers said:

Understood and that is the issue. TB12 needs to find a way to recognize the 4-man rush, relent from throwing and audible to the run. The belief is that by running vs a 4-man front, there will be opportunities to realize some substantial gains. Once the gains start to be realized, BAL will bring in an extra defender to fortify the run defense. All theory.

The difference here is that JMD and TB need to have confidence in the D and not give in to forcing plays.

I posted in another thread some numbers...
TBs 1st 14 playoff games...20TDs, 9 INTs. 24 ppg, 18 ppg allowed.
TBs last 14 playoff games, 23TD, 17 INTs, 25ppg, 23ppg allowed.

It's all on the defense and TB needs to trust them- so does JMD.

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we haven't run the ball in recent weeks. who's our last 100 yard rusher??
idk seems like the running game went into the toilet once blount arrived.

Gronkowski123 said:

we haven't run the ball in recent weeks. who's our last 100 yard rusher??
idk seems like the running game went into the toilet once blount arrived.

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Jonas gray 112 yards tomorrow

Gronkowski123 said:

the line is shaky...idk the receivers don't scare anyone except for gronk.
ravens are going to rush 4/drop everyone into coverage. we've seen that before. if suggs/ngata/elvis get some pressure it's going to be a long afternoon.

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For the record and according to Mike Reiss (also mentioned on ESPN yesterday w/ credit given to Reiss), when faced with 4 man rushes alone from BAL, Brady had a QBR around 15, with 7 interceptions.

When they brought an extra rusher/ 5+, Brady saw a ton of success.

They never said how far back they went, but I assume that they're talking of the 3 postseason games.

PATS16N0 said:

You forgot the Ridler, but yeah, health and defense.

Defense is leaps and bounds beyond what it was.

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Agree. Defense is the bigger difference.

NE has a pass defense. Without that youre toast in a passing league.

Tunescribe said:

Imagine if we still had Mayo, Ridley and a healthy Easley.

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Easley?

He never made a play. Invisible.

Gronkowski is one of the best players in football. Having him out there today is going to be huge, and one of the big differences in the game. Having a healthy Chandler Jones against either a banged up Eugene Monroe or an undrafted rookie is going to be huge. Edelman and Connolly's return to play following their concussions will be a huge difference for an offense that has sputtered a bit without those two key parts.

Another thing that is going to be huge is the point differential at the end of the game. 31-13 Pats in a physical, assertive performance that lets the Colts/Broncos watching film know what the hell they are in for the following week.

Triumph said:

Easley?

He never made a play. Invisible.

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You are wrong. He made 10 tackles, one sack, one pass deflection and had an interception. My post referred to a healthy Easley. His ongoing knee rehab was why he didn't play much.

I know all players are gonna be pumped but imagine how hyped Gronk is going to be. Healthy for a playoff game for the first time in years.

slash83 said:

I know all players are gonna be pumped but imagine how hyped Gronk is going to be. Healthy for a playoff game for the first time in years.

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Yo Soy Fiesta

Triumph said:

Easley?

He never made a play. Invisible.

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He played very well mid season with his best game vs Indy.

Gronkowski123 said:

we haven't run the ball in recent weeks. who's our last 100 yard rusher??
idk seems like the running game went into the toilet once blount arrived.

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...and Jonas Gray visit to the BB doghouse.

Gronkowski123 said:

the line is shaky...idk the receivers don't scare anyone except for gronk.
ravens are going to rush 4/drop everyone into coverage. we've seen that before. if suggs/ngata/elvis get some pressure it's going to be a long afternoon.

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I think a healthy Edleman is pretty scary to Ravens