Kirwin and Miller on Pats/Ravens

patfanken · Jan 8, 2015

jmt57 said:
I need to watch some all-22 on the Ravens to get a better idea of what's going on with the Baltimore rush defense, so in the interim some stats:

3.6 yards per carry - 3rd best in the NFL
88.3 yards per game - 4th
24.1 rush attempts/game - 5th
4.7 first downs per game - 5th
8 rushing touchdowns - tied for 5th
37% opponent rush play percentage - 3rd
24% opponent rushing 1st down % - 4th
25.6% opp rushing yards percentage - 2nd

At first glance I would say that running against Baltimore is a whole lot easier said than done. However, I have a few questions.

First, did opponents not run on them in part because it was so much easier to pass against them? Opponents did complete 64% of their passes against the Ravens, and that happened despite their facing average to subpar quarterbacks more often than they faced good QBs.

Also in regards to their opponents, how many teams with decent running games did they face? Baltimore played the Bengals (before Jeremy Hill got any playing time), the Browns twice, Carolina (without Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams), the Bucs, Falcons, Titans, Saints, Chargers, Jaguars, and then the Steelers without Le'Veon Bell.

In the final game of the regular season, the Cleveland Browns had third stringer Connor Shaw at QB, and no Josh Gordon at WR against the Ravens. Even though it was obvious the Browns weren't going to rely on their passing game, Cleveland's Terrance West ran for 94 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. If the Browns - who had one of the worst running games in the NFL this year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry - could do that against Baltimore in that situation, then is the Ravens' run D really all that it is being hyped up to be?

Great stuff, JM, Lot's of good information in your post. But one thing really popped out to me and bears repeating. That's that 64% completion rate. The number isn't that high, but it grows in importance when you consider the competition it was gotten against. Think about it, bad teams, a supposedly great pass rush (2nd in sacks) any yet they STILL gave up a 64% completion rate. That would imply one very crappy pass defense.

I also think you are on to something on the run game. The Steelers managed 80 yds against them, and they were playing from behind the entire night without their top 2 run threats. That was a great question BTW. You have to wonder if part of their good run defense stats are due to the fact their pass defense was so bad.

I the end, I would be happy if at the end of the game the Pats wind up with 25 carries and just 80+ yds. That's just enough of a combination of production and carries to give some balance to the O. We need that as a minimum, but personally when its all over I expect the total to be over 120 yds.

OT (a bit) - I've heard a lot about the vaunted Raven rushing attack a lot this week. What I haven't heard anything about was the anemic 49yd performance in the Steeler game. Not a word. Christ, if the Pats had put up that kind of result in a big game, they'd be looking to open Congressional Hearings. But in this narrative, its not even mentioned. (except by me.

)

mayoclinic · Jan 8, 2015

patfanken said:
I also think you are on to something on the run game. The Steelers managed 80 yds against them, and they were playing from behind the entire night without their top 2 run threats. That was a great question BTW. You have to wonder if part of their good run defense stats are due to the fact their pass defense was so bad.

I the end, I would be happy if at the end of the game the Pats wind up with 25 carries and just 80+ yds. That's just enough of a combination of production and carries to give some balance to the O. We need that as a minimum, but personally when its all over I expect the total to be over 120 yds.

I agree completely. The Pats have to not sell out on the run, even though I don't expect massive numbers. Use a rotation of guys to keep them fresh and change things up. It's one of the major keys to the game, IMO. Just keep plugging away.

patfanken said:
OT (a bit) - I've heard a lot about the vaunted Raven rushing attack a lot this week. What I haven't heard anything about was the anemic 49yd performance in the Steeler game. Not a word. Christ, if the Pats had put up that kind of result in a big game, they'd be looking to open Congressional Hearings. But in this narrative, its not even mentioned. (except by me. )

The Ravens also put up a paltry 33 yards rushing against Houston week 16 (2.1 YPC).

SalemPats · Jan 8, 2015

mayoclinic said:
I agree completely. The Pats have to not sell out on the run, even though I don't expect massive numbers.

the right side of the Ravens line is elite and Forsett is more quick than physical. I thought they did a great job with the run against the Steelers. The fact that we can play man on the outside, means we can overload and shift to stop the run much easier. If Forsett is stopped we win big, I think BB will force Flacco to beat us.

mayoclinic · Jan 8, 2015

SalemPats said:
the right side of the Ravens line is elite and Forsett is more quick than physical. I thought they did a great job with the run against the Steelers. The fact that we can play man on the outside, means we can overload and shift to stop the run much easier. If Forsett is stopped we win big, I think BB will force Flacco to beat us.

The discussion involving my post, which you cited, was about the Pats running the ball against the Ravens, not about stopping the run. I'm confused. As for the Ravens doing "a great job wit the run against the Steelers", I'm not sure how 53 yards rushing and a 2.1 YPC average qualifies as a "great job".

patfanken · Jan 8, 2015

mayoclinic said:
The Ravens also put up a paltry 33 yards rushing against Houston week 16 (2.1 YPC).

I was not aware of this, Mayo. It just adds to the narrative that isn't being told this week.

Where is the mediot who is insightful enough to point out that the "powerful" Raven ground game has amassed just 33 - 128 - 49yds rushing in their last 3 games. All three were "must win" type games where they needed their rush game to be at its best. The only game they did marginally well was against the "playing out the string" Browns with their PS QB. And you and I both know that even 130 yds on the ground isn't going to get the job done for them Saturday.

BTW- I happened to stumble on a bit of Florio's radio show at noon. He's broadcasting from Foxboro and had Curran on. So I listened. I should have known better.

First 5 minutes was him talking about the Raven's dominance of the Pats in Foxboro during the last 3 playoff meetings. Curran did well in response by basically saying the situation is totally different. There was no Gronk and Revis last year. As well as pointing out in 2 key drives in 2 of those games, the key DB's in coverage were Julian Edelman, and Marquise Cole.

Of course Florio wasn't hearing any of it. His response was, "No, Its the same QB's, and same HC's", like that makes any sense.

And then if you didn't already have a terminal hatred for the man, he spent the rest of the segment talking about spygate and the fact the Pats haven't won a superbowl since.

And oh yeah, here's another beauty from the fraud. "Tom, how come the Pats don't dominated anyone in the superbowl, They have been Dominated in them, yet they can't dominate anyone else."

Sorry for venting

IllegalContact · Jan 8, 2015

hwc said:
I didn't get the sense that Kirwin thinks the Pats can run the ball down the Ravens throat or that it can be run/run/run game plan. Just that the Pats have run more than the Steelers just so the threat of the run is there. I think he was proposing a quick release passing game as an acknowledgement that the Ravens simply won't allow Brady to stand in the pocket and pat the ball. Could be time for the hurry-up?

The Steelers were dead the moment it was clear to the Ravens that they had thrown away the running chapters in the playbook and were going to drop back and throw on every play. Thinking out loud, it seems that the Pats absolutely, positively cannot get behind. They can't FUBAR their early drives with dropped passes, holding penalties, or failing to convert 2nd and 2 with a couple of running plays.

The Pats quick passing game is vulnerable to teams with a pass rush who can play man coverage and bump the receivers at the line. I'm not sure the Ravens can afford to be that aggressive with the pass coverage. Ed Reed is not walking through the tunnel to play center field.

ya, but keeping an RB in the backfield and calling the draw when the ravens try to overload on a blitz .... especially with guys like blount and gray it will be necessary for a ravens defender to singlehandedly bring the guy down while engaged in a block.......the pats can mitigate the stunts and blitzes.....

I think you'll see more play action on first down by the pats, and going into no huddle with certain personnel groupings trying to catch the ravens in a mismatch (run on dumervil, pass on upshaw)

IllegalContact · Jan 8, 2015

I think both forsett and smith sr are a little worn down......forsetts only decent game recently was against the browns where he got 4 carries for 96 yards..most of it on defensive breakdowns.....the other 14 carries netted 21 yards.....many carries with little to no gain. he didn't fumble prior to week 17 and he's fumbled twice in the last 2 games

smith sr started hot.......I think he's a little worn, too

either way, it serves the pats to play tough, patient ball.......the only reason the steelers lost was because for the first time this year, they had to be one dimensional and roethlisberger still had a pretty decent day even though he looked like an idiot out there......good teams can move the ball pretty easily against the ravens

RelocatedPatFan · Jan 8, 2015

patfanken said:
I was not aware of this, Mayo. It just adds to the narrative that isn't being told this week.

Where is the mediot who is insightful enough to point out that the "powerful" Raven ground game has amassed just 33 - 128 - 49yds rushing in their last 3 games. All three were "must win" type games where they needed their rush game to be at its best. The only game they did marginally well was against the "playing out the string" Browns with their PS QB. And you and I both know that even 130 yds on the ground isn't going to get the job done for them Saturday.

BTW- I happened to stumble on a bit of Florio's radio show at noon. He's broadcasting from Foxboro and had Curran on. So I listened. I should have known better.

First 5 minutes was him talking about the Raven's dominance of the Pats in Foxboro during the last 3 playoff meetings. Curran did well in response by basically saying the situation is totally different. There was no Gronk and Revis last year. As well as pointing out in 2 key drives in 2 of those games, the key DB's in coverage were Julian Edelman, and Marquise Cole.

Of course Florio wasn't hearing any of it. His response was, "No, Its the same QB's, and same HC's", like that makes any sense.

And then if you didn't already have a terminal hatred for the man, he spent the rest of the segment talking about spygate and the fact the Pats haven't won a superbowl since.

And oh yeah, here's another beauty from the fraud. "Tom, how come the Pats don't dominated anyone in the superbowl, They have been Dominated in them, yet they can't dominate anyone else."

Sorry for venting

I wonder how he explains his job to his children (assuming he found someone to procreate with). He's like a black hole that is the center of his own universe that only pulls information that conforms to his principals...basically, he sucks.

Patriotic Fervor · Jan 8, 2015

VrabelJr said:
I think if Solder shrugs Suggs then we dispatch these thugs go back to Baltimore with sour mugs and our OL gets new pairs of Uggs.

So, exactly what are you saying?

PATS16N0 · Jan 8, 2015

Patriotic Fervor said:
So, exactly what are you saying?

That the Ravens do performance enhancing drugs, are way too smug, and that after Saturday's game, poor Flacco will need a hug.

Kirwin and Miller on Pats/Ravens

patfanken

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