Crafting a contract extension for Darrelle Revis and the New England Patriots - Updated on...

Crafting a contract extension for Darrelle Revis and the New England Patriots - Updated on 1/23/2015

Miguel Benzan

Examining Darrelle Revis's comparables and proposing a couple of deals between him and the New England Patriots. My preferred deal would save over $10 million on the 2015 cap.

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I still don't believe that a $12M AAV contract is even a starting point. Anything less than $15M AVV seems like a bargain to me.

mayoclinic said:

I still don't believe that a $12M AAV contract is even a starting point. Anything less than $15M AVV seems like a bargain to me.

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Agreed. @ $12m the Pats pull a "Lester" and Revis just got "Luccino'd"

here is the optimal extension

mayoclinic said:

I still don't believe that a $12M AAV contract is even a starting point. Anything less than $15M AVV seems like a bargain to me.

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I tend to agree - but look at the comparative salaries/bonus structure of other players the Miguel included - including many younger - and $15 APY would make him the HIGHEST paid CB in the league - so while I might see that as an ending point I see a starting point lower than that.

And while I don't see them wanting to keep him at a $25 million cap hit next season, just to play devil's advocate for a second, let's remember that they CAN apply the franchise tag in 2016 and even again in 2017

In 2014 the CB tag value was just under $12 million. Now of course with Revis making $20 million next year ($25 million cap hit) there'd be a bigger jump in that than normal - but let's say its $14 million in 2016. $14 million for one year for Revis with no long term injury risk is not a bad gamble.

And at $34 million over the 2 years, that's a 2 year average of $17 million - yes, higher than a $12-$15 APY that we're talking about here, but that's the premium you pay for no long-term risk

I'm not kidding myself - that's still tough to squeeze in that $25 million cap hit (though look around the league - that's a lower cap number than say, Joe Flacco at $28.5 million the following season - let alone his $31.5 in 2017 before his final cap hit of $24 million in 2018)

But the Patriots have played the low risk short term high salary/hopefully high reward card before with Welker playing at nearly $10 million in 2012. So can I see them potentially paying Revis an average of $15 million a season from 2014-2016? Sure (I'm rationalizing the $25 million cap hit - I REALLY want more cap flexibility than that - but it's not impossible)

Again - I'm just playing a "negotiation hard-ball devil's advocate" hypothetical here - but it's not like the Pats have zero negotiating power - they've just crafted a contract that was designed with the likely intent to re-negotiate or else force the Patriots to pay a massive premium. They can keep him next season and tag him the next for a 3 year $15 million per year average.

I'd prefer to have more cap flexibility this eason myself- and Revis may want to have a longer term contract himself (barring injury I can see him productive beyond 3 years) - so hopefully they can reach an agreement

JoeSixPat said:

I tend to agree - but look at the comparative salaries/bonus structure of other players the Miguel included - including many younger - and $15 APY would make him the HIGHEST paid CB in the league - so while I might see that as an ending point I see a starting point lower than that.

And while I don't see them wanting to keep him at a $25 million cap hit next season, just to play devil's advocate for a second, let's remember that they CAN apply the franchise tag in 2016 and even again in 2017

In 2014 the CB tag value was just under $12 million. Now of course with Revis making $20 million next year ($25 million cap hit) there'd be a bigger jump in that than normal - but let's say its $14 million in 2016. $14 million for one year for Revis with no long term injury risk is not a bad gamble.

And at $34 million over the 2 years, that's a 2 year average of $17 million - yes, higher than a $12-$15 APY that we're talking about here, but that's the premium you pay for no long-term risk

I'm not kidding myself - that's still tough to squeeze in that $25 million cap hit (though look around the league - that's a lower cap number than say, Joe Flacco at $28.5 million the following season - let alone his $31.5 in 2017 before his final cap hit of $24 million in 2018)

But the Patriots have played the low risk short term high salary/hopefully high reward card before with Welker playing at nearly $10 million in 2012. So can I see them potentially paying Revis an average of $15 million a season from 2014-2016? Sure (I'm rationalizing the $25 million cap hit - I REALLY want more cap flexibility than that - but it's not impossible)

Again - I'm just playing a "negotiation hard-ball devil's advocate" hypothetical here - but it's not like the Pats have zero negotiating power - they've just crafted a contract that was designed with the likely intent to re-negotiate or else force the Patriots to pay a massive premium. They can keep him next season and tag him the next for a 3 year $15 million per year average.

I'd prefer to have more cap flexibility this eason myself- and Revis may want to have a longer term contract himself (barring injury I can see him productive beyond 3 years) - so hopefully they can reach an agreement

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Revis is not eligible for the franchise tag this year. He is under contract. For 2016 the tag would be 120% of his 2015 cap, or $30M, for a 2 year cost of $55M - and a 3 year cost of $91M if the Pats used the tag again in 2017 ($36M cap hit). It's all in Miguel's analysis, if you care to read it. No thanks.

Will update blog with a note that the 2014 franchise tag number for cornerbacks was $11.834 million, hence the inclusion of the $12m APY deal

mayoclinic said:

Revis is not eligible for the franchise tag this year. He is under contract. For 2016 the tag would be 120% of his 2015 cap, or $30M, for a 2 year cost of $55M - and a 3 year cost of $91M if the Pats used the tag again in 2017 ($36M cap hit). It's all in Miguel's analysis, if you care to read it. No thanks.

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Correct - I wasn't suggesting that he be capped this year since he's already under contract.

But since he's NOT being capped this year, wouldn't he be eligible for the normal cap hit?

Doesn't the 20% only kick in if it's a 2 year in a row tag? Hence wouldn't it be the one year franchise cap? Not 120% of his previous year's salary?

Oh - actually my mistake - it IS the greater of whatever is higher - in this case 120% of the previous year's salary even though he would obviously not be subject to the cap this upcoming season

Move along!

Miguel said:

Will update blog with a note that the 2014 franchise tag number for cornerbacks was $11.834 million, hence the inclusion of the $12m APY deal

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Blog updated - http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1039

The short and simple of it is the the Pats are going to want a deal that averages $12MM/yr, Revis will want something closer to $14MM. That is NOT a huge gap to overcome.

I predict a deal will be done that will look very much closer to that $14MM number, but include enough protections for the Pats should Revis' play fall off toward the end, or he misses a significant amount of games.

In the end that's what it comes down to. A mostly guaranteed $12MM deal, or a more performance based $14MM deal. I can live with either

patfanken said:

The short and simple of it is the the Pats are going to want a deal that averages $12MM/yr, Revis will want something closer to $14MM. That is NOT a huge gap to overcome.

I predict a deal will be done that will look very much closer to that $14MM number, but include enough protections for the Pats should Revis' play fall off toward the end, or he misses a significant amount of games.

In the end that's what it comes down to. A mostly guaranteed $12MM deal, or a more performance based $14MM deal. I can live with either

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Again, I think $14M/year AAV will be a relative bargain. I'm expecting something more like $15M/year.

mayoclinic said:

Again, I think $14M/year AAV will be a relative bargain. I'm expecting something more like $15M/year.

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And I hope that wont be a problem for the Pats for a game changer like Revis. Considering Brady's cap hit is so much lower than that of his peers, I'd assume there's room to fit Revis in at $15m/year.

If one thought about it another way, getting both Brady and Revis for about a $30m/year average cap hit is still a reasonable number because Brady is not getting paid anywhere near what would be his likely market value

smg93 said:

And I hope that wont be a problem for the Pats for a game changer like Revis. Considering Brady's cap hit is so much lower than that of his peers, I'd assume there's room to fit Revis in at $15m/year.

If one thought about it another way, getting both Brady and Revis for about a $30m/year average cap hit is still a reasonable number because Brady is not getting paid anywhere near what would be his likely market value

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I agree. I personally think there's a fairly narrow $14-15M/year AAV range. Anything under $14M/year is favorable to the Pats - it could happen, but given Revis' prior stance to contracts, I would be a bit surprised. Above $15MM gets costly. The guaranteed money and how the contract is structured will be more important.

As another way to look at it, the top CB's average $14M/year (Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson). The top defensive players average $16M/year (JJ Watt, Mario Williams). I think anything that pays Revis at or above the top CBs is reasonable. Given that Revis' 2 year deal with the Pats had an AAV of $16M and that a 1 year/$12M contract was a bargain, I don't think that a $12-13M AAV is likely to be realistic.

patfanken said:

The short and simple of it is the the Pats are going to want a deal that averages $12MM/yr, Revis will want something closer to $14MM. That is NOT a huge gap to overcome.

I predict a deal will be done that will look very much closer to that $14MM number, but include enough protections for the Pats should Revis' play fall off toward the end, or he misses a significant amount of games.

In the end that's what it comes down to. A mostly guaranteed $12MM deal, or a more performance based $14MM deal. I can live with either

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I would be fine with either also.

However, I also believe that there are teams willing to pay Revis more than $12M a year.

Are you think that Revis will take any less than $40M guaranteed?