Good luck the rest of the way... (plus thoughts on Ravens from a Pitt fan)

Bobs My Uncle said:

Excellent and accurate input.

I can't imagine the Pats will be able to run effectively against the Ravens D so, if the Pats OL can't cope with the Ravens front 7 in pass pro, then I suspect it will be a long day for the Pats offense.

I do like the Pats D going up against the Ravens O however. Just gotta keep Flacco from completing those long bomb type plays.

This game has a 13-10 type feel to it to me.

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Brady_to_Moss said:

I think losing Bell had more of an effect then you make it out to be. Like collinsworth said..some of those runs and catches out of the backfield..tate makes a 2 yard run while Bell would have had 6 or 7. Losing him i thought at the beginning of the week gave you guys really no shot (sorry)!

I mean Bell was what...like 20% of your O this year...maybe more? For a middle of the road team...it's really hard to overcome that

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lillloyd said:

I hear you. I just think that to say that "we lost it because Bell was out" is a cop out. IMO we lost this game in the trenches--particularly on the OL -- and that was more than just Bell being out.

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lillloyd said:

Very tough to run on Baltimore for all of the reasons above.

You guys might have better success running no-huddle than we did (we have a lot of young WRs that limited what we could do in that attack). I would think WR bubble screens would be effective (Collinsworth said something last night to the effect that Suggs had figured out some sort of 'tell' when we ran those plays, which might explain why we didn't run them much).

Of course, getting Gronk loose on a short hot read (one where he just rumbles through the secondary for 30 yards) would do a lot to slow them down

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lillloyd said:

I'm making the rounds on different forums after my Steelers were bounced from the playoffs last night ....Just wanted to say good luck the rest of the way.

Also wanted to share some final thoughts on last night's game, and how it might relate to your upcoming tilt with the Ravens:

• Pitt just got beat, pure and simple. This would have been true regardless of whether Bell played or not, as this game was lost in the trenches.
• Pitt's young OL is vastly improved over previous years, and features a couple of Pro Bowl-caliber players in DeCastro and Pouncey....But in this game, they were absolutely steamrolled by the Ravens' front 7, and this was the deciding factor. It wasn't just all the sacks per se--it was how the pressure got into the head of Roethlisberger, who had to know from the opening snap that his line was struggling badly. Ben was never comfortable, and he consistently missed on throws he usually makes.
• Pitt also failed to get to Flacco with their pass rush, despite all the injuries to the Raven's OL. Very disappointing given the home game..but ultimately an accurate reflection of how we really don't have reliable edge rushers any more.

How will this translate to next Saturday's game?

The #1 takeaway from the game last night IMHO is just how good--and deep--Baltimore's front 7 is. Their defensive tackle rotation is monstrous, not just with Ngata (who was back and routinely walking Pouncey back into the pocket), but Brandon Williams, who has become a hell of a player in his own right, and simply abused DeCastro most of the night. Factor in that Timmy Jernigan didn't even play (and I expect he could be back for the Patriots game), and you realize just how beastly the interior of their DL can be. On the outside, everyone knows about Suggs and Dumervil, but they're deep there as well -- McPhee had 8 sacks this year and is an explosive guy in his own right. It's just a very talented, physical and deep group.

I don't know the Pats' OL that well, but the reality is most OLs will struggle to consistently contain Baltimore's front 7. As troubling as Suggs and Dumervil are as bookend pass rushers, I'd argue that it's the pressure up the middle --from Ngata, Williams and potentially Jernigan--that is most problematic, as pressure up the middle messes with a QB's head and footwork. If the Pats' OL can't hold up, Brady's going to have to really stand in there and deliver even while taking shots and having guys at his feet for 60 minutes.

As great and as tough as Brady is, I think this may lead to a lower offensive output than you're expecting; I would probably bet against you running away with this game by hanging a 40-burger (or even 30 for that matter) on BALT. Yes, the Ravens are vulnerable on the back end with all of their injured CBs...but no matter how great the QB and coach, if the OL is being blown back and the QB is constantly harassed, it's tough to consistently take advantage of that mismatch. Pitt has an explosive passing game and ostensibly a major advantage on BALT's DBs... but when the OL gets manhandled it doesn't matter.

One last note on the other side of the ball -- Joe Flacco gets a ton of homer-ish flak on our boards for being a lucky, heave-ho-and-wait-for-PI kind of QB. And to be fair there's a small bit of truth to this -- Flacco tends to make one or two questionable decisions a game (we dropped our INT chances last night, but I'd expect Browner and Revis to hang on to theirs . But the reality is, Flacco is a very good playoff QB -- he throws the best deep ball in the game (which means a lot of those PI's are deserved, since the ball is placed so well) and has been pretty unflappable in the playoffs. He has seven (!!!) road playoff wins since '08, which I believe is already an all-time record. I don't think he gets the credit he probably deserves.

That all said, I think you guys will still advance, for a couple of reasons:

• You have an elite 'pressure release valve' in Gronk -- if you complete just a few hot reads to your TE, you might slow their rush down. (We also have an elite 'pressure release' in Bell, and that was one area where we definitely missed him last night).
• I fully expect your defense to get home on pressure in ways we could not. Although it's not always safe to assume backups are worse than the starters ahead of them -- in this case, the Ravens' LT, Eugene Monroe, was really struggling prior to his injury, so I don't know that the dropoff to James Hurst is as dramatic as one might expect -- but the reality is that the Ravens are missing BOTH their starting tackles. If a 37 year-old James Harrison can give their LT fits, I fully expect your guys to do the same...with the benefit of vastly superior coverage on the back end.

So if I were a betting guy I'd take the Patriots in a 27-20 or 24-17 kind of game. Your offense may struggle more than you'd prefer, and it may be uncomfortable at times, but you should still survive and advance. Just my $.02.

Good luck the rest of the way, talk to you next year when Pitt goes to Foxoboro.

lillloyd

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West Philly Patriot said:

I think there are lots of people here expecting to blow the Ravens out. Flacco hasn't been trash in the playoffs his entire career so not sure why that would happen now. A lot of people are consoling themselves with the "there is no Ray Lewis or Ed Reed to worry about" logic, completely ignoring the actual all pro caliber players the Ravens currently have in the front 7. They are Elite pressuring the QB forget the sacks(49), the pressure is what kills drives.

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MassPats38 said:

I don't know if everyone is expecting a blowout. Games against the Ravens have always been difficult, and it is silly to expect this will be other than a streetfight. The response seems appropriate for those quoting history and missing the differences in the scenarios (ie., Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and the younger versions of the current veterans.). Or that history in losing two playoff games under different circumstances projects the outcome now. If the Ravens talent is elite, then how do you explain this season - a ruse to lull teams into a false sense of security? If so, then well played. Especially when they folded in the Chargers game when it should have ended the season.

Where was this elite cadre when the Chargers put 30+ on them on a game that should have ejected them from the playoffs? Did the Steelers play full out and lose completely confident in the game plan after the loss of Bell, or did the Ravens come in more certain about what had to be done and take it to the Steelers? Brady has one of the quickest releases in the game and the Ravens are close to the bottom 3rd in pass defense with a cupcake schedule. Who did they pressure - the good or the bad teams that they could score on?

Do you believe the Ravens are better than the Broncos front 7? Or the Lions? Or the Bills? Or the Jets? The Pats won 3 titles in 4 years, but that won't help them win this. Nor will the Ravens' playoff history when on the field. The most recent game was in Baltimore, one year ago, 12/22, and the Pats thrashed them 41-7, with Dumervil and Ngata. How is this personnel grouping any different? Are the Pats better or worse than the team that crushed the Ravens then?

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lillloyd said:

One last note on the other side of the ball -- Joe Flacco gets a ton of homer-ish flak on our boards for being a lucky, heave-ho-and-wait-for-PI kind of QB. And to be fair there's a small bit of truth to this -- Flacco tends to make one or two questionable decisions a game (we dropped our INT chances last night, but I'd expect Browner and Revis to hang on to theirs .

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Jlaff said:

I expect Browner and Revis to come down with a few as well. But there is a BOATLOAD of truth to that, no QB in the league has gained more yards via PI than Fluke-O this year.

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lillloyd said:

Ben simply was never comfortable

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lillloyd said:

The Steelers were 6-1 against teams with winning records this year FWIW

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Oswlek said:

Dead on, but I couldn't help but feel like Ben himself, along with the offensive approach, had a lot to do with that. He was hesitant to pull the trigger even when his first read was open. Never going hurry up or with quick passing seemed strange as well.



That stat is impressive on the face of it, but Cincy, Cincy, Baltimore, Indy, KC and Hou might be the least impressive collection of "winning teams" as I've ever seen. You can only play who you play, of course, but that doesn't mean we can't look deeper than pure numbers in our analysis.

The game this afternoon appears to have shed a different light on things (for me, anyway). I came away from the Pitt/Cincy thinking Pitt's front seven was much improved, but the Bengals were pushed around so easily by Indy that it now appears the Steeler front just looked good against a lousy OL. Remove any improvement to the front seven, and you have a defense that was a bottom three unit in the entire NFL, and one that matches up very poorly against a deep passing offense.

So Baltimore may have dusted off their playoff offense and now come into Foxboro with a 30+ point unit..... or they took advantage of a dreadful defense that they are designed to exploit.

Pitt's OL had looked better of late, but they also closed with TN, NO, Cincy, Atlanta, KC, and Cincy again. One good front in there, and they held the Steelers to 20 points in Pitt. The prior "good" defense Pitt played was NY, who dominated them.

These are all the reasons why I never bought that the Steelers were a real threat to begin with. All the positive things you could point to were done against the weak sisters of the NFL.... with the exception of Ben's two great weeks which looked (and now look even more so) like anomalies.

Now NE needs to face the one team in the AFC that has a reasonable win scenario in the Razor. Not because of the decals on their helmets or their pedigree or any such nonsense, but because their biggest strength matches up perfectly with NE's biggest weakness. The Patriots should still win and it may very well be a blowout, but the Ravens have a good chance of slowing NE down, which of course gives them a reasonable chance of winning.

One other nugget, Ken pointed out all the yards Miller got, well I saw at least another 30 yards missed purely because of miscommunications. I also illustrated earlier how Ben had a wide open receiver on the game sealing interception - not only wide open, but completely uncovered and open immediately. There were loads of plays to be made even in spite of how much Baltimore dominated the OL. Brown may be better than any receiving option on the Patriots, but Edelman is much better than the second option on Pitt and LaFell is better than #3, so those opportunities should be available on Saturday as well.

I suspect the Patriots are going to spend a lot of time watching film of the Charger game. SD was getting pushed all over the field but, instead of the Pitt route were they got scared and tried to overcorrect to protect Ben, they went they other way, flooding the field with receivers and getting the ball out immediately. The Ravens just didn't have enough DBs to slow SD down. The other comparable is SD was able to move the ball without the same deep threat as Pitt has in Brown, another similarity to NE.

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letekro said:

Great stuff lilloyd. I agree that this will be a one score game and also agree that individual matchups, not past statistics, are most useful in analyzing football games. I think we'll struggle against that front 7. I think Pees is pretty smart and will be able to limit Gronk. Webb will be able to limit Edelman or LaFell. Whoever the third guy is, along with vereen, are going to have to have big games for the Pats to advance.

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lillloyd said:

Pitt's young OL is vastly improved over previous years, and features a couple of Pro Bowl-caliber players in DeCastro and Pouncey....But in this game, they were absolutely steamrolled by the Ravens' front 7, and this was the deciding factor. It wasn't just all the sacks per se--it was how the pressure got into the head of Roethlisberger, who had to know from the opening snap that his line was struggling badly. Ben was never comfortable, and he consistently missed on throws he usually makes.

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