How Likely Or Unlikely Was It? Super Bowl Winners 1978-2012

http://www.footballperspective.com/how-likely-or-unlikely-was-each-super-bowl-winner-since-1978/

odds judged at the time of the beginning of the playoffs

high, most likely champion: SF in 1994, 55%
low, least likely: NYG in 2007, 0.7%

surprising/sobering: our odds in 2003 and 2004 were 27.7% and 21.5%, respectively.

In 2001 we were the 3rd least likely champion in this 25 year period

Only two teams — the 1994 49ers and the 1995 Cowboys — were more likely than not to win the Super Bowl.

WINNING IS HARD!

I can't take this data seriously. When the raiders won it as a wild card would have to be the most unlikely winner to me.

phil112 said:

I can't take this data seriously. When the raiders won it as a wild card would have to be the most unlikely winner to me.

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It is. 1980. Remember though, that Raider team had the same record as the #1 seed. In fact all AFC playoff teams were 11-5 that year. And the team that came out of the NFC was not strong.

phil112 said:

I can't take this data seriously. When the raiders won it as a wild card would have to be the most unlikely winner to me.

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The 80 Raiders finished tied for best record in AFC and lost division on Net Points in Division games. Thus had to be Wild Card. And unlike the 07 Giants actually got to play a home playoff game.

phil112 said:

I can't take this data seriously. When the raiders won it as a wild card would have to be the most unlikely winner to me.

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There are 10 champions on the list that played on wild card weekend. The '80 raiders were the 3rd-least-likely among those 10. Behind the 2007 Giants and 2012 ravens.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

There are 10 champions on the list that played on wild card weekend. The '80 raiders were the 3rd-least-likely among those 10. Behind the 2007 Giants and 2012 ravens.

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Yeah, Phil's objection makes no sense on the face of it. There were other WC teams, including WC teams with worse W/L records, scoring margin and a lack of a home game.

The combined odds that we would win in 2001, 2003, and 2004: 0.13%

Makes me feel at least a little better about 2007 and 2011.

Some other interesting playoff food for thought:

http://thesportsquotient.com/nfl/2014/12/29/nfl-playoffs-a-statistical-perspective

The home field/bye data isn't surprising. But I was a bit surprised to see the data about top 5 QBs and 'streaking' teams entering the playoffs.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

low, least likely: NYG in 2007, 0.7%

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Oswlek said:

Yeah, Phil's objection makes no sense on the face of it. There were other WC teams, including WC teams with worse W/L records, scoring margin and a lack of a home game.

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Okay, I'll give you that. I didn't consider the win/loss record when the raiders popped into my mind.

Giants...I hate those guys.

The kings of fluke Super Bowl wins.

It seems that since the change to the 4 division format (per conference), there is an higher number of 'less likely' Super champion than ever before. According to the table above, for the 2002-2012 period (11 years), 7 Super Champs were at or below 10% at the start of the playoffs.

So more than free agency, it seems that the true parity was achieved by going from 6 to 8 divisions !