The FO Knows What They're Doing

ATippett56 said:

The FO Knows What They're Doing:

After reviewing the draft selections from 2008 to 2014 in the first three rounds (the meat and potatoes of the draft), I seriously question the validity of the topic.

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...os=ALL&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all

Wheatley
Crable
O'Connell
Brace
Butler
Tate
McKenzie
Cunningham
Price
Dowling
Mallett
Wilson
Bequette
Dobson ???
Ryan ???
Harmon ???

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And how does this compare to all other teams that draft late over a comparable span of time?

ATippett56 said:

The FO Knows What They're Doing:

After reviewing the draft selections from 2008 to 2014 in the first three rounds (the meat and potatoes of the draft), I seriously question the validity of the topic.

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Feel free to not participate in this thread if you feel that way.

You seem to have become very negative recently, spending more time bashing players and the team than offering constructive input. Not sure why. You're entitled to your own view, and disagreement is fine, but I personally have better things to do than to listen to bashing without constructive input, so onto the Ignore list you go.

FWIW, the point of the OP was not to hold the FA to a standard of no bad picks - no NFL FO would meet that standard. I could make an equally long list of Ozzie Newsome "WTF?" picks. I also started with 2011 because on defense at least there was a change of direction around then, and because I felt going back too far wasn't useful.

Yes, I think the FO took Wilson, Bequette, Harmon, Dobson, Boyce and White for a reason. The same brain trust that picked Jones, Hightower, Collins, Dennard, Ebner and Stork made those picks, and they were made with a fair amount of deliberation and care. Some won't work out, and some may actually have been mistakes, but they were rational picks made with a plan in mind. The team learns from their mistakes, they cut their losses fairly quickly, and they are the best in the NFL at adapting on the fly and filling in the roster to compensate for their weaknesses.

As an aside, I think that the FO does better when they don't pick players specifically as contingencies or backups to other players. Brace was picked as a Wilfork contingency plan during a period when his long term status was uncertain; Harmon was picked purely as a McCourty backup; and White was picked as a Vereen backup/contingency plan. I think those were all cases of "reaching" a bit for guys who they thought filled specific roles, but who just weren't that good.

What possible plan included drafting Tavon Feckin Wilson with the 48th overall pick?

captain stone said:

What possible plan included drafting Tavon Feckin Wilson with the 48th overall pick?

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Same plan that involved trading out of the first, and then drafting a player like Jaime Collins, who's turning into an elite Lb,and then drafting a Logan Ryan and Josh Boyce. Sometimes you hit on picks, other times you miss.

Never understood the hate for BB the GM. Name me another team that's constantly drafted end of rounds with a better resume.

captain stone said:

What possible plan included drafting Tavon Feckin Wilson with the 48th overall pick?

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I don't know. That's the friggin' point. Just because we don't understand the logic doesn't mean there wasn't one, and just because a pick doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad one. Of course there were bad picks mixed in, everyone has them, and Wilson may in fact be one. But not necessarily, and not just because we don't understand it.

The Pats entered the 2012 draft with only 6 picks: 27, 31, 48, 62, 93, and 126. Safety was an area of need, and their top safety on the roster going into the season was going into a contract year. There were only 2 safeties considered top 50 picks, and both went higher than predicted. The Pats used 93 and 126 to trade up for Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, and hit home runs with both picks. Do you blame them for that? I consider getting 2 studs a highly successful draft. With 2 remaining picks at 48 and 93, the Pats eventually managed to snag 2 solid contributors in Nate Ebner and Alfonzo Dennard.

The Pats had no ammo to move up from 48 after moving up twice in the 1st. The needed more picks. The guys picked after Wilson:

49. Kendell Reyes, DT. Good player. Would have been a good pick, but didn't really fit the direction the D was going, and a lesser need than S.
50. Isaiah Pead, RB. We didn't need and RB, and he hasn't set the world on fire.
51. Jerel Worthy, DT. GB dumped him after 2 years (after trading up to get him), and we eventually got a shot at him.
52. Zach Brown LB. Maybe, but we'd already taken an LB, and he has been inconsistent.
53. Devon Still, DT. Hasn't done anything, aside form the social interest of his family story.
54. Ryan Broyles, WR. Hasn't done anything. A huge reach.
55. Peter Konz, OL. A turnstile.
56. Mike Adams, OT. A turnstile.
57. Brock Ostweiler, QB. No comment.
58. Lavante David, LB. Home run.
59. Vinny Curry, DE. Might have been ok, but nothing special.
60. Kelechi Osemele, G. Would have been ok, but the Brian Waters situation wasn't anticipated.
61. LaMichael James, RB. Since cut.
62. Casey Heyward, CB. Solid CB, but not much more so than Alfonzo Dennard.

Not a ton of talent bursting at the seams, aside from the obvious Lavante David pick.

So we picked a player with some versatility at a position of need, when the pickings were slip because we had hit 2 home runs. And people still act like it's a worse crime than the things AHern is accused of.

If the answer was that we took 'Tavon Feckin Wilson' because we saw nothing better after using up all our draft capital, whiffed on David after already taking a LB, and couldn't find a good trade down option, I can live with it. Big effin' deal.

AzorianPats said:

Same plan that involved trading out of the first, and then drafting a player like Jaime Collins, who's turning into an elite Lb,and then drafting a Logan Ryan and Josh Boyce. Sometimes you hit on picks, other times you miss.

Never understood the hate for BB the GM. Name me another team that's constantly drafted end of rounds with a better resume.

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And which other GM has kept his team at the top for as long as BB. As you say, drafting is an imperfect science but no other GM wins the first round as regularly as BB.

manxman2601 said:

And which other GM has kept his team at the top for as long as BB. As you say, drafting is an imperfect science but no other GM wins the first round as regularly as BB.

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He gets quality players first round, but it's more to that. He's gotten impact players like a Brady, Gronk, Dan Koppen, Asante Samuel, David Givens, Deion Branch, Julien Edelman, Matt Light just to name a few in the later rounds. People forget that but wants to point out the bad ones. He's had plenty of bad picks, but to just nitpick on those and ignore the fact he nailed on some grand slams, just shows an annoying bias.

manxman2601 said:

And which other GM has kept his team at the top for as long as BB. As you say, drafting is an imperfect science but no other GM wins the first round as regularly as BB.

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I think that there are misses and there are mistakes, and they are different. Aaron Dobson may end up being a miss, but he was a reasonable pick with a ton of upside. The fact that some people preferred other targets wouldn't make it necessarily a mistake if he doesn't succeed.

Ron Brace was a clear mistake, IMO. A big reach on a player who really didn't have much to offer, as a backup plan because of Wilfork's uncertain situation.

Both occur, and we shouldn't expect perfection. The ability to recognize one's mistakes and move on from them, and find other options, is just as important.

More proof that the FO does not know what it is doing more often than one might care to admit:
Marcus…Cannon.

captain stone said:

More proof that the FO does not know what it is doing more often than one might care to admit:
Marcus…Cannon.

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Funny.. I read it exactly the other way around and think that the Cannon extension shows that they know exactly what they are doing.

Cant understand how anyone wouls think that this is a negative/clueless move..

captain stone said:

What possible plan included drafting Tavon Feckin Wilson with the 48th overall pick?

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Glad you asked. I think it's clear that the Pats valued Wilson's versatility and potential to play the "star" position as a hybrid LB/S (a role that they used him in from the outset). Compare Wilson's measurables with those of Kenny Vaccaro, another player who fits that role (and plays it for the Saints), taken #15 overall the next year:

Wilson: 5' 11 3/4", 205#; 4.52 40, 1.60 10-split; 4.16SS, 7.043C; 32" VJ, 10'4" BJ, 17 reps BP
Vaccaro: 6' 0" 214#; 4.59 40, 1.62 10-split; 4.06 SS, 6.783C; 38" VJ, 10'1" BJ, 15 reps BP

Both guys played similar roles in college, one in the Big 10, one in the Big 12. BB noted Wilson's versatility after he made the pick:

"He played plenty. You can see him plenty at Illinois," Belichick said. "You can see him against whoever you want to see him against: all the Big Ten schools, Arizona State, teams that throw the ball. He's playing corner, he's playing safety, he's playing the inside positions, the nickel position, the dime position -- Michigan State, they're a good passing team; Michigan, they're a spread-out offense team. There's a lot of passing in that conference, Northwestern, all those teams."

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http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/7865727/tavon-wilson-reach-round-2-not-bill-belichick

Wilson may not have developed as hoped, but that doesn't mean there wasn't a plan that made sense. The line between success and failure is also a thin one: Vaccaro struggled this season when he tried to play more of a true strong safety role, rather than being used as a hybrid:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/po...caro-rob-ryan-both-prefer-vaccaro-in-add-role

There aren't that many prospects with the kind of versatility and skill set that Wilson had coming out, so I can see why the Pats may have valued him. Obviously, it hasn't worked out so far, though he's shown some flashes. But it's the same kind of hybrid role that Pat Chung played well against Denver earlier this year. Chung at #34 in 2009 was considered a mild reach, too; he played a similar hybrid role as the "rover" in Oregon's defense - again, it seems that the Pats liked that kind of versatility. Chung, Wilson and Ebner all have the raw talent and potential to play that role, but it seems to be a hard one to do well. My guess is that it's an important role for BB, and he'll keep trying to fill it until he finds someone who sticks.

mayoclinic said:

Wilson may not have developed as hoped, but that doesn't mean there wasn't a plan that made sense.

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With Tavon Wilson what it comes down to me is that even though all the athletic feats seem to be in place his mind seems to be too slow. If he gets straight forward tasks he actually looks fine (e.g. double stop on 3rd and 4th down against the Chargers at the end) but in more complicated situations he seems to take too much time diagnosing what to do, plays catch up and often ends up either with a bad angle on a tackle or simply beat deep.

You can project the athletic metrics of any player in the draft as much as you want but being able to handle the speed of the NFL is very often the thing that makes or breaks a career. I am not sure how you can really measure or project that before you actually let him develop for 1-2 offseasons.

ATippett56 said:

The FO Knows What They're Doing:

After reviewing the draft selections from 2008 to 2014 in the first three rounds (the meat and potatoes of the draft), I seriously question the validity of the topic.

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...os=ALL&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all

Wheatley
Crable
O'Connell
Brace
Butler
Tate
McKenzie
Cunningham
Price
Dowling
Mallett
Wilson
Bequette
Dobson ???
Ryan ???
Harmon ???

Click to expand...

3rd Round picks are hardly guaranteed anything..
But, let's review some of these.

Tate - was a project pick. He was coming off a Torn ACL. He re-injured it during his rookie year.
McKenzie - Was doing great in rookie camp until he tore his ACL.
Mallett - he was taken as a back-up for Brady. Held that position for a couple of years and was traded this year. Not sure why you question the pick.
Tavon Wilson - Had a productive rookie year. Is a good special teams player. Has done well this year in sub situations.
Aaron Dobson - Jury is still out. The injuries are a concern. As is his ability to be productive on the field, though he was pretty productive his rookie year.
Logan Ryan - He's been a mystery man. Very inconsistent this year as the #3/#4 CB.
Duron Harmon - He's been the 1st off the bench in terms of reserve Safeties. He's actually played pretty well this year.

Tate, McKenzie, and Wheatley had catastrophic injuries happen to them. Is Belichick supposed to be clairvoyant and know that they are going to happen?

I would argue that it is impossible to hit on all your high draft picks. There is no test for measuring a player's drive, determination, courage, heart, learning abilities and pain tolerance.

i would say bb has done an exceptional job in the first round of his drafts, a so-so job in the second round and a complete disaster in the third round. Average after that.

I think bb over emphasizes football iq vs. athletic ability, especially when it comes to the secondary.

As for the drafting and development of wr's, I place a majority of the problem at Brady's feet. He is a very demanding perfectionist who gives rookies an extremely short leash and hardly ever a second chance. Wide receivers have to have a very thick skin to work with Brady. That is just a fact.

BB's work in turning other team's veteran fringe players, cuts, cast offs and traded players into productive patriots players is amazing.

BB's work with signing premium free agents, is awful.

A mixed bag, but I will take it all day long.

Ochmed Jones said:

I think bb over emphasizes football iq vs. athletic ability, especially when it comes to the secondary.

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Looking at Tavon Wilson or Logan Ryan I am not sure that is true. They both check off the most boxes in terms of athleticism but seem to have issues reacting to plays properly. It might be that they still need too much time to process what they are seeing or maybe they are simply overwhelmed when put into non-obvious situations. But I don't necessarily see a common theme of football iq vs. athletic ability..

In my opinion the acquisitions made during the season were a phenomenal job by Belichick, those players among the others already signed for the next few years and the players drafted in these last 2 years, put us in a position of a roster almost defines for the next season, of course there are free agents like Mcourty and Revis, but the core is there.

That is fantastic because will alow BB to move up in the draft since there are no room for 7 or 8 new rookies. I don't think BB will repeat the mistake of this year, losing potential players like Gallon and Jemea something in a numbers game.

I know it's a lot of ifs, but, if we sign important players like Revis, Mccourty, Ayers, Casillas, etc... if we hit on this next draft and if Brady keep the good level for another few years, I don't think it's a delusion to dream with another dynasty or at least 2 Lombardis.

mayoclinic said:

I don't know. That's the friggin' point. Just because we don't understand the logic doesn't mean there wasn't one, and just because a pick doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad one. Of course there were bad picks mixed in, everyone has them, and Wilson may in fact be one. But not necessarily, and not just because we don't understand it.

The Pats entered the 2012 draft with only 6 picks: 27, 31, 48, 62, 93, and 126. Safety was an area of need, and their top safety on the roster going into the season was going into a contract year. There were only 2 safeties considered top 50 picks, and both went higher than predicted. The Pats used 93 and 126 to trade up for Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, and hit home runs with both picks. Do you blame them for that? I consider getting 2 studs a highly successful draft. With 2 remaining picks at 48 and 93, the Pats eventually managed to snag 2 solid contributors in Nate Ebner and Alfonzo Dennard.

The Pats had no ammo to move up from 48 after moving up twice in the 1st. The needed more picks. The guys picked after Wilson:

49. Kendell Reyes, DT. Good player. Would have been a good pick, but didn't really fit the direction the D was going, and a lesser need than S.
50. Isaiah Pead, RB. We didn't need and RB, and he hasn't set the world on fire.
51. Jerel Worthy, DT. GB dumped him after 2 years (after trading up to get him), and we eventually got a shot at him.
52. Zach Brown LB. Maybe, but we'd already taken an LB, and he has been inconsistent.
53. Devon Still, DT. Hasn't done anything, aside form the social interest of his family story.
54. Ryan Broyles, WR. Hasn't done anything. A huge reach.
55. Peter Konz, OL. A turnstile.
56. Mike Adams, OT. A turnstile.
57. Brock Ostweiler, QB. No comment.
58. Lavante David, LB. Home run.
59. Vinny Curry, DE. Might have been ok, but nothing special.
60. Kelechi Osemele, G. Would have been ok, but the Brian Waters situation wasn't anticipated.
61. LaMichael James, RB. Since cut.
62. Casey Heyward, CB. Solid CB, but not much more so than Alfonzo Dennard.

Not a ton of talent bursting at the seams, aside from the obvious Lavante David pick.

So we picked a player with some versatility at a position of need, when the pickings were slip because we had hit 2 home runs. And people still act like it's a worse crime than the things AHern is accused of.

If the answer was that we took 'Tavon Feckin Wilson' because we saw nothing better after using up all our draft capital, whiffed on David after already taking a LB, and couldn't find a good trade down option, I can live with it. Big effin' deal.

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This is one of the most cogent and thoughtful replies to a Dratftnik Blowhard that I have seen. Guys like Major Rockhead, and the 'Disgrace of '55s name', give many draftniks a bad name.

They never have anything positive to say, about the Team that they purportedly follow. They are always celebrating some 'discovery', of their own, who is never heard from again; or *****ing because BB didn't draft a guy who went in the Top 10, with BBs lowly second round pick.

Well done. It is nice to see such commentary about these blowhards from a genuine and very knowledgeable Draftnik, too.

mayoclinic said:

I don't know. That's the friggin' point. Just because we don't understand the logic doesn't mean there wasn't one, and just because a pick doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad one. Of course there were bad picks mixed in, everyone has them, and Wilson may in fact be one. But not necessarily, and not just because we don't understand it.

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I think this is the same sort of argument that leads people to say "going for it on 4th and 2 was a mistake."

IMHO, there is a tendency to conflate the results of a decision with the quality of the decision-making process. Obviously these are two distinct things that should not be conflated. It is possible to have a really good decision-making process that just doesn't work for some reason (e.g., McKenzie), and to have a bad decision-making process that works out in the end (e.g., Brady, who the Patriots should not have left until 199).

ctpatsfan77 said:

I think this is the same sort of argument that leads people to say "going for it on 4th and 2 was a mistake."

IMHO, there is a tendency to conflate the results of a decision with the quality of the decision-making process. Obviously these are two distinct things that should not be conflated.

It is possible to have a really good decision-making process that just doesn't work for some reason (e.g., McKenzie), and to have a bad decision-making process that works out in the end (e.g., Brady, who the Patriots should not have left until 199).

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Well said. It's a point I've made many times, and well worth repeating.

Mind you: I believe that some Moves were flat out dumb-@$$ moves the moment they were made...which is of course the only moment that matters, as we agree. Brilliance doesn't preclude Moments of Stupidity.

Off The Grid said:

Mind you: I believe that some Moves were flat out dumb-@$$ moves the moment they were made...which is of course the only moment that matters, as we agree. Brilliance doesn't preclude Moments of Stupidity.

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Without a doubt, there are moves that just don't make sense. Trading up for Ron Brace in 2009, for example. I understand that Vince Wilfork's long term contract situation was a bit tense at the time, but that doesn't excuse a massive reach for a player, and there were better options available (e.g., Terrance Knighton).