Overstating the Obvious

Im sure a lot of this has been covered, I think we have one of the best defenses NE has seen ever, one of them. Im confident in the ability of the defense to limit points for the other team. I think it is as smash mouth tough as Seattle. Contain Russell and you win.

Offensively during last couple games not fantastic but they played teams that had a stake in the game, that means a lot to me, Jets - well thats always tough and that defense is as good as most and imho better than Denver.

I do think I would like to see a little of the rust fall off the offense but I also dont think the O line is terrible, matter of fact as stated in many places in this thread they are pretty good, I think they do better against the speed rush which Seattle has. If healthy I think the O line can do well.

My anxiety is really if NE can put points on the board in a tough SB game, or playoff game regardless. I wonder if the last two SB loses are in TB's head. I would think it isn't but....

Heard something on the radio this morning that hit home though, if NE gets to the SB and plays Seattle then NE might be the underdog, in last few years the underdog has won the big game, I think, but im sure someone will correct me if Im wrong LOL. I do think NE might match up well against Seattle if healthy, lets see how Seattle plays this week and then again no one is in the show yet.

of course the blueprint is out there to beat the Patriots. Fortunately the blueprint gets lost/un-findable sometimes -- usually right around the exact same time that the OL starts paying well. That is an eerie coincidence!

Go back to our loss to KC. Read posts/articles of the Patriots demise. Now read mine and some other responses regarding 'much of this is fixed if/when the OL is righted' (officially tooting horn, its there, go read it). Then the next game and the following games (mostly against average to better opponents) the OL played very well and again, the eerie! coincidence of the blueprint being lost.

Recently the OL has returned to playing subpar. Coincidentally the blueprint to beat the Patriots has been rediscovered by opposing defenses again. I mean that's just spooky how one and the other keep happening together!

I am praying! the blueprint get's lost again starting a week from Monday.

obgod3 said:

My anxiety is really if NE can put points on the board in a tough SB game, or playoff game regardless. I wonder if the last two SB loses are in TB's head. I would think it isn't but....

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Provided the Patriots don't get physically dominated (a la Ravens playoff game 2010), most evidence points to the Patriots being competitive right up until the end of the biggest game. Even struggling in some areas they'll find a way to grit it out with a chance to win rightt until the end/just about the end.

That end being a good one comes down to a few right play calls, a player or two making 'the play', no BS penalties and a marginally favorable bounce of the ball. They have gotten this in the end in some of the 'big game'(s) they have played in, some they have not.
One thing for sure, odds are very good no matter who the opponent is (if we make it there) it will likely be a major nail biter until the end/near the end. Watching the big game, again if the Patriots make it, will not be for the faint of heart (the gameday thread will generate some classic and timeless statements)......

Ivan said:

Given the injuries they have had on the DL I honestly don't think they would have made the playoffs without him.

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They made it to the AFCCG last year w/o him. Why would they not make the playoffs without him this year?

Branch, Siliga, Chris Jones and Walker is < w/o Wilfork but it is good enough.

Slagathor said:

...Back in 2007 when the Pats played the Eagles and Baltimore....we won those games. But those games scared me...a team I viewed as a juggernaut had a few noticeable flaws. The secondary's deficiencies were major...

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The one real "flaw" the Patriots had in 2007 was a "flaw" that every team in history has had: Injuries can change everything. The secondary was fine.

robertweathers said:

They made it to the AFCCG last year w/o him. Why would they not make the playoffs without him this year?

Branch, Siliga, Chris Jones and Walker is < w/o Wilfork but it is good enough.

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They didn't have Branch and Siliga and Chandler Jones were out as well. . Wilfork kept their interior DL on track all season and his ability to play every position on the DL allowed them to run all the sub package that confused and stymied the high powered offenses they faced. No way their defense plays this way with Chris Jones and JoeVellano as the starters. No Wilfork no playoffs.

Slagathor said:

Definitely an eye test guy. Given a sufficient time to observe...the eyes don't lie.

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Actually that's untrue though certainly not limited to you. CB (Confirmation Bias) is always connected to the eyes. Again this is not limited to/specific only to you. And if you are saying "metrics be damned, I know what I see"? CB is almost certainly in play -- just as clearly if someone said 'look at these stats, that's all that matters' (unless the stat was final score -- as that arguably is all that matters).

Ivan said:

They didn't have Branch and Siliga and Chandler Jones were out as well. . Wilfork kept their interior DL on track all season and his ability to play every position on the DL allowed them to run all the sub package that confused and stymied the high powered offenses they faced. No way their defense plays this way with Chris Jones and JoeVellano as the starters. No Wilfork no playoffs.

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How we remained in the mix with that interior DL is just wack. I'm even more thankful for this year's interior DL after that 2013 reminder.....

Ivan said:

They didn't have Branch and Siliga and Chandler Jones were out as well. .

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Ayers played well in Chan Jones absence. Walker & Branch were added in October.

Siliga was on the team last year as was Chris Jones and went to the AFCCG.

Ivan said:

Wilfork kept their interior DL on track all season and his ability to play every position on the DL allowed them to run all the sub package that confused and stymied the high powered offenses they faced. No way their defense plays this way with Chris Jones and JoeVellano as the starters. No Wilfork no playoffs.

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A team with BB & Brady thats made the playoffs 12 of 14 seasons doesn't make the playoffs b/c of Wilfork?

Keep in mind that the team added Browner, Revis, LaFell and a healthy Gronk.

I think you over-value VW.

robertweathers said:

Ayers played well in Chan Jones absence. Walker & Branch were added in October.

Siliga was on the team last year as was Chris Jones and went to the AFCCG.



A team with BB & Brady thats made the playoffs 12 of 14 seasons doesn't make the playoffs b/c of Wilfork?

Keep in mind that the team added Browner, Revis, LaFell and a healthy Gronk.

I think you over-value VW.

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Neither Branch nor Ayers were added until the season was half over and Ayers is not a DT. Siliga missed over half the season. Their DL would have been screwed without Wilfork. You undervalue him imo.

I agree with you that the additions were great pick ups but I think the season would have been lost by the time they arrived had they had b to rely on Joe Vellano?

Ivan said:

Neither Branch nor Ayers were added until the season was half over and Ayers is not a DT. Siliga missed over half the season. Their DL would have been screwed without Wilfork. You undervalue him imo.

I agree with you that the additions were great pick ups but I think the season would have been lost by the time they arrived had they had b to rely on Joe Vellano?

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Lets reset.

I understand your assertion to be that the 2014 Patriots would not make the playoffs w/o Vince Wilfork.

My assertion is that based on last year's AFCCG appearance w/o Vince and the off-season and during-the- season additions of players currently on the roster, this team would still make the playoffs w/o VW.

Would they be as good? Probably not.

robertweathers said:

Lets reset.

I understand your assertion to be that the 2014 Patriots would not make the playoffs w/o Vince Wilfork.

My assertion is that based on last year's AFCCG appearance w/o Vince and the off-season and during-the- season additions of players currently on the roster, this team would still make the playoffs w/o VW.

Would they be as good? Probably not.

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Perfectly reasonable position I just feel that given the loss of Siliga and then Jones that the Patriots DL would not have held up during that critical stretch in October and it would have Put their whole season in jeopardy, and I would have said the same had McCourty gone out in September with no Revis, imo it would be to much to hold up. Now if Siliga and Jones had both been healthy I wouldn't make the same assertion.

No way to prove it that's just how I see it.

Ivan said:

Perfectly reasonable position I just feel that given the loss of Siliga and then Jones that the Patriots DL would not have held up during that critical stretch in October and it would have Put their whole season in jeopardy, and I would have said the same had McCourty gone out in September with no Revis, imo it would be to much to hold up. Now if Siliga and Jones had both been healthy I wouldn't make the same assertion.

No way to prove it that's just how I see it.

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Fair point. Its tough to say. I think they beauty of this team is that they are very proactive, very quick and very good at filling holes- just like last year. VW goes down vs ATL, the world panics but they hire Siliga away from Papa Johns and trade for Sopoaga (who didnt really work out) .

I think it also depends on when VW became unavailable. For example, if they needed to put him on PUP from TC, do they keep Tommy Kelly? Do they bring Branch in earlier?

My point is that this team always finds a way to recover and be competitive.

Since it's a stating-the-obvious thread...

Here is where I agree: This Patriots team, unlike the 2007 team, could be beaten any of a number of ways that I can imagine. However, part of the pain of the 2008 SB was that I could not imagine them losing to that Giants team. Unlike that team, this team seems forged in occasional adversity and aware that they are "mortals" like any other NFL team. (I know they said the right thing most of the season... but at some point complacency must sink in in a year like that).

Do we really think this defense wins us the championship in "2007 and 2011"? Do we really think this defense holds those teams to <14 points (2008) and <17 points (2012,) when we are giving up an average of 19 points, against non-SB caliber teams? You can argue that this D can force a mistake that previous Ds would not have gotten for us. This year's crew gets more pressure, and Revis paired w/McCourty gives you the opportunity for the LBs and line to be aggressive and make plays. But those defenses in the 2008 and 2012 Super Bowls kept it competitive.

I'm afraid the most clear cut way
to win in February is a full-strength Gronk ... something I'll believe when I see it (still.) But in the absence thereof, there are other paths. This offense has the balance to test you both on the ground and in the air. There is still the Wright variable if needed. And of course, as is presently the case, there might be the Gronk option.

The biggest advantage this team has is the memory of the KC game. The biggest disadvantage is the scary variable O-line. This is not a group that lets TFB play a round of Candy Crush on his iPhone before getting rid of the ball. Every game is an adventure in terms of protecting Brady. They've been a work in progress all year... but they are not an elite unit. Brady's a little bit of a statue. I think the O-line toughened up, and Brady learned to let go and trust untrusted options... and then Gronk came back and life was better.

But in a Super Bowl? This Pats team will need to use every weapon and every way it can beat a team. That includes running until/unless the run is stopped, PA passes off the run, shot downfield if/when available, stout defense, and (something this D might improve on over '08 and '12) big plays/changes of possession by the defense.

That said... something similar applies to whomever we play - the big assumption being we're in the SB this year (though right now I'd say we'd be favored to make it in.)

PatsFanInVa said:

Since it's a stating-the-obvious thread...

Here is where I agree: This Patriots team, unlike the 2007 team, could be beaten any of a number of ways that I can imagine. However, part of the pain of the 2008 SB was that I could not imagine them losing to that Giants team. Unlike that team, this team seems forged in occasional adversity and aware that they are "mortals" like any other NFL team. (I know they said the right thing most of the season... but at some point complacency must sink in in a year like that).

Do we really think this defense wins us the championship in "2007 and 2011"? Do we really think this defense holds those teams to <14 points (2008) and <17 points (2012,) when we are giving up an average of 19 points, against non-SB caliber teams? You can argue that this D can force a mistake that previous Ds would not have gotten for us. This year's crew gets more pressure, and Revis paired w/McCourty gives you the opportunity for the LBs and line to be aggressive and make plays. But those defenses in the 2008 and 2012 Super Bowls kept it competitive.

I'm afraid the most clear cut way
to win in February is a full-strength Gronk ... something I'll believe when I see it (still.) But in the absence thereof, there are other paths. This offense has the balance to test you both on the ground and in the air. There is still the Wright variable if needed. And of course, as is presently the case, there might be the Gronk option.

The biggest advantage this team has is the memory of the KC game. The biggest disadvantage is the scary variable O-line. This is not a group that lets TFB play a round of Candy Crush on his iPhone before getting rid of the ball. Every game is an adventure in terms of protecting Brady. They've been a work in progress all year... but they are not an elite unit. Brady's a little bit of a statue. I think the O-line toughened up, and Brady learned to let go and trust untrusted options... and then Gronk came back and life was better.

But in a Super Bowl? This Pats team will need to use every weapon and every way it can beat a team. That includes running until/unless the run is stopped, PA passes off the run, shot downfield if/when available, stout defense, and (something this D might improve on over '08 and '12) big plays/changes of possession by the defense.

That said... something similar applies to whomever we play - the big assumption being we're in the SB this year (though right now I'd say we'd be favored to make it in.)

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To answer that first bold-ed statement: Quite possibly considering the difference between winning and losing were single scores in both losing efforts. This defense is very well rounded. Top caliber starting corner backs, a safety that has been named 2nd team all pro the last two years in a row, (if you believe the hype) two LBs that are really really coming into their own, 3 DTs lead by Vince Wilfork that are very run stopping capable, book ends with Chandler Jones and a solid Ninko.
If Arrington can get healthy (unfortunately injuries tend to not ultimately go your way), offenses are going to be be funneled into limited windows of production in a way that the other defenses, IMHO, were not as capable of doing.

Second bold: If the Patriots are able to play in the SB (odds are likely for it, and it is because the Patriots actually have the best team/most capable team in the AFC of winning any game they play), the underlying story of this game will be about pass protection (overall a Patriots team in the SB always comes ready to play). If a SB caliber team playing the Patriots can rush 4 yet get pressure on Brady on a sufficiently high percentage of plays, Brady will struggle and the Patriots will have little chance to rack up a 25 or more score, and the Patriots will need a lot of 'plays' on every side of the ball to get a successful outcome. If on the other hand the OL gives Brady plenty of time when the opposition is only rushing 4 (and most frequently when rushing 5), I have a lot of confidence the Patriots will score 25 or more. Brady + time to throw + his receivers + evolving play call adjustments = scoring. Little I have seen makes me believe that formula is untrue. And when the Patriots score at that rate they have, historically, it has been able to get W's while masking other deficiencies. This year, IMHO, those deficiencies are fewer -- in other words if this OL provides TB a high level protection I like our chances against anyone in the SB.

Slagathor said:

With a team like Seattle specifically, they are extremely fast and athletic. Between Wagner, Thomas and Chancellor, they can very easily eliminate Gronk. Sherman would definitely shut down Lafell. I am not as rosy at our chances against Seattle. They are a punch in mouth team the likes of we haven't faced yet.

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I do agree with some of what you've said, but all we can do is hope for the best. I think we can all agree that both the offense and defense have improved on 2013's squad, and they've put themselves in a decent position by "winning" the regular season and earning the #1 spot.

Winning the SB is often about getting some luck and a good bounce or two of the ball. Without that, ANY team is up against one hell of a challenge, as we've seen in 2007 and 2011. For all we know, someone may upset Seattle this year. Let's hope so, because I agree that it'd be a tough out. Both SEA and GB would be tough matchups for different reasons.

neuronet said:

I appreciate your love of the Patriots, but Antonio Brown is an amazing receiver.

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I know of a certain CB who would match up rather well with Mr. Brown, should it come down to it.

I think we can assume that Belichick would devise a fairly decent gameplan for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that's just my opinion. Different fans are going to be concerned with different teams.

From my couch I see a lot of offensive predictability recently, not sure if they are holding back or just complacent? Anticipate(hope) that once the tournament starts then our Offense will look somewhat different than it does now..

We need to utilize more than three main receivers, 4 if you count Vereen.. Develin, Wright and even Hooman(10 catches between the 3 in '14) can add value to this team.. Brady seems too focused on a few and need to utilize more to keep these D's off balance.. guys like Tyms(1 catch '14) are completely predictable. The Pats use a lot of tackle eligible formations, but never use tackle eligible plays.

Also question why they don't use the no huddle more to develop an offensive rhythm.. particularly when they get into an offensive malaise.

When we played GB Davante Adams was their leading receiver.. at the expense of Jordy Nelson. Last week the pass to John Conner(2 receptions for '14) of 26 yards allowed the Jets to stay in the game..

Not a big fan of trick plays, but have been waiting several years to see the qb skills of Edelman..

Slagathor said:

With a team like Seattle specifically, they are extremely fast and athletic. Between Wagner, Thomas and Chancellor, they can very easily eliminate Gronk. Sherman would definitely shut down Lafell. I am not as rosy at our chances against Seattle. They are a punch in mouth team the likes of we haven't faced yet.

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Seattle is a low-scoring rushing team. The run defense is the key to beating those guys. I will harp on this a lot, and it may be why they don't make it to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks have the 29th ranked passing attack in the league in yards and only have 20 passing TDs in 15 games, good for a tie for 18th.

They have the #1 rushing game in the NFL in virtually every category. Their 5.4 yards/carry is almost a yard more than the #2 rushing team.

The Patriots and Seahawks are almost identical in not turning the ball over, and ending drives with a score.

The Patriots front of Branch, Siliga, Wilfork, Chris Jones, Rob Ninkovich, and Chandler Jones is the key to that matchup.

Stop the run, stop the Seahawks.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2014/

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake

Rob0729 said:

Anyone else surprised that Deus would take a victory lap in he told us so that getting rid of Mankins was a mistake even though this time tomorrow the Pats might have HFA advantage locked up and is currently the odds on favorite to go to the Super Bowl.

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The Mankins - Wright trade is not the reason why the Patriots are where they are. Much bigger factors involve players like Revis, Browner, Stork, Blount, LaFell, Branch, Wilfork and Peyton Manning gagging on the road in the Broncos two biggest outdoor road games of the season (@ Patriots and @ Bengals.)