DaBruinz 2015 Patriots Needs Thread (early edition)

Going into the 2015 Draft, I see the two biggest needs being as follows:
NT/DT - Someone to start taking over for Vince. Branch and Siliga are better complimentary players than they are starters.

OG - The Pats need 1, possibly 2 guys for the interior of the line. I believe that Fleming will take over one of the guard positions. I believe that Kline and Devey will be good reserve players, though Kline is the better spot starter. However, they need someone who can be a Mauler inside, but also bounce outside.


The other positions:

O-Line - Solder and Vollmer both had off-years. Vollmer I am willing to over-look due to his injury history. Solder seemed to have issues with trusting the guy next to him and trying to over-compensate. The Pats have him back next year, but they will likely draft someone by the 3rd round to cover the potential of Solder moving on. Much like they drafted Solder before Light retired (and Light before Armstrong retired). The Pats have Cannon signed for another 2 years. Cannon has actually shown an ability to be the swing Tackle.

Safety - Yes, the Patriots could use someone to line up next to McCourty. Yes, I expect a long term deal with McCourty to get done. Both Harmon and Wilson seemed to make some pretty good strides this year. That being said, I don't believe that Harmon is ready to take over as the starter next to him.

CB- The Big question is whether or not they get an extension done for Revis before the season officially starts in March. My guess is that they will. That would give the Pats a group of Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, Dennard, Butler. Something has been wrong with Denanrd this year. He's not been the same player that we were used to. Ryan has been hit or miss. Arrington has played better than average.

LB- A lot will hinge on the Pats being able to re-sign Ayers and whether Mayo comes back healthy. If those two things happen, then the Patriots have a very strong core with Hightower and Collins. If not, then they will be scrambling to add quality to the LB core.

WR - I see this as a low draft priority. They have Edelman, LaFell, Amendola and Tyms right now. They also have the oft-injured Dobson and Greg Orton. And on the PS they have Boyce and Jonathan Krause. They may make a free agency signing, but, again, it will not be a huge name..

TE - The Pats have Gronkowski and Wright. They've had little luck in TEs beyond their #2. Hoomanawanui has underperformed, even as the #3. The Pats went out and signed re-tread Steve Maneri to help in jumbo packages in the run game since they weren't getting the blocking they needed from Hoomanawanui. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late round pick used on a TE prospect.

QB - The Pats drafted Garappolo and he could, very well, be the heir apparent to Brady. Only time will tell. The Patriots did sign Garrett Gilbert at the end of the 2014 season to their practice squad to give them a 3rd QB. This was after trying to sign David Fales to their PS from Chicago's only to have Chicago promote him to their pro-roster.

I generally agree with most of what you have said.

Few comments:

DaBruinz said:

Both Harmon and Wilson seemed to make some pretty good strides this year. That being said, I don't believe that Harmon is ready to take over as the starter next to him.

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After investing into safety multiple times in the last few drafts I don't think this will happen unless of a BPA situation. I think that BB actually will continue to use his Safety by Committee approach from this year with Chung, Wilson and Harmon situationally. I would not be surprised if Ebner ends up being part of the committee in specific situations next year. That is if he can make one last offseason jump.

DaBruinz said:

A lot will hinge on the Pats being able to re-sign Ayers and whether Mayo comes back healthy. If those two things happen, then the Patriots have a very strong core with Hightower and Collins. If not, then they will be scrambling to add quality to the LB core.

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I have this weird feeling that Ayers will end up in Denver next year. I don't know why but it just feels like one of those situations where they will look to get more LB depth and be prepared to pay him more than us based on his situational value for us.

Good stuff. Individual comments to follow:

DaBruinz said:

Going into the 2015 Draft, I see the two biggest needs being as follows:
NT/DT - Someone to start taking over for Vince. Branch and Siliga are better complimentary players than they are starters.

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I agree. Wilfork has been good, but not 2010-2012 good, and he's unlikely to get better. Not $9M good, which is his 2015 cap hit, almost all new money. Even if the Pats keep Wilfork for 2015, they need a succession plan. Branch and Siliga are good, but not long term impact players.

Eddie Goldman is my favorite DT in the draft, and I think he could be an impact player. He has rare mobility and foot speed for a guy his size, and his strength and power are reminiscent of Ndamukong Suh. I think he'd be worth a Chandler Jones kind of trade-up in the 1st. Malcolm Brown isn't far behind, and Jordan Phillips has freakish athleticism for a big NT. Terry Williams is a day 3 wild card with tremendous upside. I want one of those 4 guys in the 2015 draft.

DaBruinz said:

OG - The Pats need 1, possibly 2 guys for the interior of the line. I believe that Fleming will take over one of the guard positions. I believe that Kline and Devey will be good reserve players, though Kline is the better spot starter. However, they need someone who can be a Mauler inside, but also bounce outside.

O-Line - Solder and Vollmer both had off-years. Vollmer I am willing to over-look due to his injury history. Solder seemed to have issues with trusting the guy next to him and trying to over-compensate. The Pats have him back next year, but they will likely draft someone by the 3rd round to cover the potential of Solder moving on. Much like they drafted Solder before Light retired (and Light before Armstrong retired). The Pats have Cannon signed for another 2 years. Cannon has actually shown an ability to be the swing Tackle.

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I think Kline and Devey are highly upgradeable. One of my questions is whether the Pats re-sign Dan Connolly, who has been good but who cost $4M+ this year and who will be 33.

I think the Pats need to take 2 linemen in the 2015 draft. One OT/OG, and one OG. LG is clearly one of the bigger "needs" on the team, and while I don't think it has to be addressed in the 1st round, it has to be addressed on day 1-2.

I think that the "big 4" of Ronnie Stanley (if he declares), TJ Clemmings, La'el Collins and Brandon Scherff will all likely be out of reach. I'm not sure I'd spend a 1st on Ty Sambrailo or Cam Erving (though I'd trade up for Erving in the 2nd). Jake Fisher is very interesting to me - I think he has terrific upside as both a LT or a LG, in the Kyle Long mold. Very athletic, former TE. Has played guard and RT as well as LT. I'd take him in the 2nd round and put him at LG next to Solder, and if Solder's play continues to deteriorate I'd move him to LT in 2016. I think someone like Laken Tomlinson or Jarvis Harrison could be found in the late 3rd round, and could be groomed to take over at LG in 2016 if Fisher moves to tackle, or become a solid interior OL depth option.

DaBruinz said:

The other positions:

Safety - Yes, the Patriots could use someone to line up next to McCourty. Yes, I expect a long term deal with McCourty to get done. Both Harmon and Wilson seemed to make some pretty good strides this year. That being said, I don't believe that Harmon is ready to take over as the starter next to him.

CB- The Big question is whether or not they get an extension done for Revis before the season officially starts in March. My guess is that they will. That would give the Pats a group of Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, Dennard, Butler. Something has been wrong with Denanrd this year. He's not been the same player that we were used to. Ryan has been hit or miss. Arrington has played better than average.

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Extending Revis and McCourty is obvious, and lowering Revis' 2015 cap hit is critical. I also think that the Pats should extend Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington another year (through 2017) and lower their 2015 cap hits a bit. They have been huge. Those 4 players are the core of the secondary. Chung has been a solid addition and should be re-signed if not exorbitant. He is upgradeable, but has also been good value.

Ryan, Dennard, Butler, Harmon and Wilson are all upgradeable. I think Dennard is gone after 2015. A pipeline is important. I've consistently mocked an early day 3 DB. Jaquiski Tartt, Durrell Eskridge and Adrian Amos are all interesting safety prospects.

DaBruinz said:

LB- A lot will hinge on the Pats being able to re-sign Ayers and whether Mayo comes back healthy. If those two things happen, then the Patriots have a very strong core with Hightower and Collins. If not, then they will be scrambling to add quality to the LB core.

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I very much hope Ayers can come back. I think Mayo either restructures or he is gone, but I think he will restructure.

DaBruinz said:

WR - I see this as a low draft priority. They have Edelman, LaFell, Amendola and Tyms right now. They also have the oft-injured Dobson and Greg Orton. And on the PS they have Boyce and Jonathan Krause. They may make a free agency signing, but, again, it will not be a huge name.

TE - The Pats have Gronkowski and Wright. They've had little luck in TEs beyond their #2. Hoomanawanui has underperformed, even as the #3. The Pats went out and signed re-tread Steve Maneri to help in jumbo packages in the run game since they weren't getting the blocking they needed from Hoomanawanui. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late round pick used on a TE prospect.

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I would add 1-2 WRs on day 3, not earlier. DeAndre Smelter is my favorite WR in this class, and I think he's a 1st round talent who will be available day 3 due to an ACL tear and the fact that he hasn't been featured at Georgia Tech. I'd make him a priority and put him on PUP, and probably IR. I like Tony Lippett as a WR/CB dual threat. Tre McBride (William & Mary), Kasen Williams (Washington), Jake Kumerow (Wisconsin-Whitewater) and Devante Davis (UNLV) are all interesting day 3 options.

I think Hooman doesn't merit his $1.8M cap hit. With Maneri on board I'd probably wait for a UDFA TE signing. Blake Bell of Oklahoma is intriguing. If Maxx Williams declares and is available in the 2nd round he would be well worth taking (even with a slight trade up).

DaBruinz said:

QB - The Pats drafted Garappolo and he could, very well, be the heir apparent to Brady. Only time will tell. The Patriots did sign Garrett Gilbert at the end of the 2014 season to their practice squad to give them a 3rd QB. This was after trying to sign David Fales to their PS from Chicago's only to have Chicago promote him to their pro-roster.

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Where do DE and RB fit on your list? And what about ST issues (especially Gostkowski)?

I think rotational edge depth is important, even if Ayers is re-signed. I'd consider someone like Marcus Dupree , Dante Fowler or Danielle Hunter in the 1st (or early 2nd for Hunter) if they were available. I think Noah Spence is an intriguing wildcard - the skill set is a great fit, the off-field issues are an obvious concern. He needs to be checked out carefully. Bigger guys like Owagabwe Odighizuwa and Preston Smith are very intriguing as well.

Tevin Coleman is a perfect fit at RB, IMHO, but I wouldn't take him before our #2 pick and he'll probably be off the board, and even then I'd only take him if no OL/DL that I liked was available. Someone like Jay Ajayi would get consideration in the 3rd round. I view RB as a bit of a "luxury area", depending on what happens with Ridley and Vereen. We don't need to reach for one, but if the value is there is could be a consideration. A power back who was a legitimate receiving threat would add a nice dimension to the offense.

I'm torn on Gostkowski. He's been money, and uncertainty at the kicking position is a bad thing. But $4M is a lot to spend on a kicker in a tight cap situation.

What do you guys think of taking Marcus peters or dorial green beckam if they fall to the later rounds? If they fall too far I would say it would be worth it, kinda like how Alfonzo dennard dropped to us.

Also what do you guys feel about Eddie Goldman compared to Michael Bennett. I haven't watched much tape on either but I know alot of people love Goldman here.

Agree about the needs. I like Silega a little more than you. Also, thought Vollmer was well above average.

I think we're going to have to draft some valuable depth players this year. And, am reluctant to move picks. I do like the idea of getting the RIGHT DT if we can by moving up a little.

If we don't get a DT in the first, there's a pretty good prospect out of ECU we can prob get in 3rd. Terry Williams. Allows us to g OL in first. I like Cam Erving. I think he can start at LG. Emergency help at tackle. And, might be your back-up C, giving you a lot of roster flexibility.

I'm getting more concerned about db. Might go there at 64. Curious about trying Logan Ryan at safety and taking a cb. Two bigger corners I like are Collins-LSU and Q. Rollins - Miami Oh. Former hoops playet who has good length and had made a seamless transition to football.

Gabriel_p94 said:

What do you guys think of taking Marcus peters or dorial green beckam if they fall to the later rounds? If they fall too far I would say it would be worth it, kinda like how Alfonzo dennard dropped to us.

Also what do you guys feel about Eddie Goldman compared to Michael Bennett. I haven't watched much tape on either but I know alot of people love Goldman here.

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What does later rounds mean? Peters day 3 would be worth a reach, depending on other reaches. I think the Pats will pick their spots in terms of how much risk they want to assume. My 2 day 3 "risk" targets are currently DE/OLB Noah Spence (off field issues) and WR DeAndre Smelter (ACL tear).

Bennett is strictly a 3-tech, and not in the same class of prospect as Aaron Donald or Dominique Easley. Not impressed.

patsfaninpa said:

Agree about the needs. I like Silega a little more than you. Also, thought Vollmer was well above average.

I think we're going to have to draft some valuable depth players this year. And, am reluctant to move picks. I do like the idea of getting the RIGHT DT if we can by moving up a little.

If we don't get a DT in the first, there's a pretty good prospect out of ECU we can prob get in 3rd. Terry Williams. Allows us to g OL in first. I like Cam Erving. I think he can start at LG. Emergency help at tackle. And, might be your back-up C, giving you a lot of roster flexibility.

I'm getting more concerned about db. Might go there at 64. Curious about trying Logan Ryan at safety and taking a cb. Two bigger corners I like are Collins-LSU and Q. Rollins - Miami Oh. Former hoops playet who has good length and had made a seamless transition to football.

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I mentioned Terry Williams in my post as an alternative if Goldman-Brown-Phillips aren't available i noted right range. Manx has been leading that charge.

Rollins is intriguing, but 64 might be a bt rich for me right now. That could change. 3rd round would be reasonable. I don't think he's a better prospect than Phillip Gaines, who went in the mid/late-3rd last year (#87 overall).

mayoclinic said:

A power back who was a legitimate receiving threat would add a nice dimension to the offense.

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We talked about that a few months back. Having a flexback who needs to be properly respected as RB and as receiving back would be maybe more impactful than a legit deep WR to our offense. That hurry-up offense would be deadly. Have you seen any prospects lately that would fit (irrelevant of drafting spot) ?

luuked said:

We talked about that a few months back. Having a flexback who needs to be properly respected as RB and as receiving back would be maybe more impactful than a legit deep WR to our offense. That hurry-up offense would be deadly. Have you seen any prospects lately that would fit (irrelevant of drafting spot) ?

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Mike Davis out of South Carolina might fit that description. Success running the ball in the SEC. Also, used as a receiver. Nagged with injuries this year which will lower his stock. I don't think he's an unrealistic pick at 96, 97 or 102/103. Pretty good player. I want to address both lines first.

luuked said:

We talked about that a few months back. Having a flexback who needs to be properly respected as RB and as receiving back would be maybe more impactful than a legit deep WR to our offense. That hurry-up offense would be deadly. Have you seen any prospects lately that would fit (irrelevant of drafting spot) ?

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Tevin Coleman would fit perfectly. Jay Ajayi would probably fit. I'm not sure Duke Johnson can be a full time back, but he's intriguing. David Johnson, Karlos Williams and David Cobb are day 3 guys who might possibly be able to develop in that direction. I also like Josh Robinson as a CJ Anderson kind of "bowling ball" back with receiving skills.

mayoclinic said:

Where do DE and RB fit on your list? And what about ST issues (especially Gostkowski)?

I think rotational edge depth is important, even if Ayers is re-signed. I'd consider someone like Marcus Dupree , Dante Fowler or Danielle Hunter in the 1st (or early 2nd for Hunter) if they were available. I think Noah Spence is an intriguing wildcard - the skill set is a great fit, the off-field issues are an obvious concern. He needs to be checked out carefully. Bigger guys like Owagabwe Odighizuwa and Preston Smith are very intriguing as well.

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DE - Much of this depends on what way BB plans on going. If he sticks with the Hybrid system he's been running, I think that BB can run a fantastic rotation of Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Easley, Moore, and Buchanan out there..

mayoclinic said:

Tevin Coleman is a perfect fit at RB, IMHO, but I wouldn't take him before our #2 pick and he'll probably be off the board, and even then I'd only take him if no OL/DL that I liked was available. Someone like Jay Ajayi would get consideration in the 3rd round. I view RB as a bit of a "luxury area", depending on what happens with Ridley and Vereen. We don't need to reach for one, but if the value is there is could be a consideration. A power back who was a legitimate receiving threat would add a nice dimension to the offense.

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RB - The Patriots have Gray, Blount, White, and Gaffney under contract for next year. I fully expect them to bring back Develin on a multi-year deal as the FB. Ridley will probably be offered a 1yr prove it deal, which may take him elsewhere. Vereen is the real wild card. We've seen nothing from White to make anyone believe that he can replace Vereen, which is why he was taken. I hope that the Pats giver Vereen a multi-year deal and let him continue to grow the way that Faulk did. Vereen is such a versatile weapon that losing him would hurt.

Brandon Bolden - This guy has like 5 or 6 major penalties on special teams. Each one has hurt the Patriots. He's been a poor man's version of Vereen on offense and that is just barely, imho. I don't foresee the Pats tendering him as an RFA, in all honesty.

Could the Pats take a RB in the draft? Sure. I see the O-line to be a bigger issue and that no RB we take will matter if the O-line consistency issues aren't fixed. A RB who has size, decent speed, and can catch the ball probably won't be there in the 3rd round unless there are medical flags..

mayoclinic said:

I'm torn on Gostkowski. He's been money, and uncertainty at the kicking position is a bad thing. But $4M is a lot to spend on a kicker in a tight cap situation.

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I don't get this "tight cap situation" malarkey. If you are going to acknowledge that Revis isn't playing at a $25M cap number, then you have to acknowledge that the Pats aren't tight against the cap.

$4M isn't a lot for the guy who is the Pats All-Time leading Scorer. Not to mention one of the most accurate kickers in NFL History.

Also, last I looked, Gostkowski's kick-offs were still strong and this year's kick return yardage is the best of his career.

Long Snapper - The Pats will add a couple via UDFA or Free Agency again to try and find someone to beat out Aiken.

DaBruinz said:

DE - Much of this depends on what way BB plans on going. If he sticks with the Hybrid system he's been running, I think that BB can run a fantastic rotation of Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Easley, Moore, and Buchanan out there..

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I certainly hope they stick with the hybrid system. I would still like to see another DE/OLB added added.

I could see them replacing solder. Jake Fisher would be ideal. Read on walterfoot all that some see collins as more of a guard and not a first round pick FWIW

Definitely think they need wr help. They have 2. Edelmen and lafell. Everyone else is a question mark. Amendola will likely be gone unless he takes a big paycut. Could see them going after eddie royal in offseason.

Vollmer is due a huge amount of money as well almost as much as solder would be.

In order IMO - Assuming all key starters and backups are resigned in FA.

#1 - OG
#2 OT/OG
#3 SS - Chung has had a decent season but teams are starting to target him more now and he is showing though he has improved he still is not a starter you feel comfortable with.

-gap-

#4 WR depth
#5 CB depth

That is about it. Everything else is a luxury pick or not worth addressing late in the draft.

DT - Unless you pick a guy in the 1st I wouldn't pick one. You don't need a good player you need an impact starter that you replace Wilfork with. A rotation player like Siliga/Branch/Jones does not significantly upgrade the team. I think they have other areas more in need of an impact starting in 2015 so I punt on meaningfully addressing DT this year (assuming Wilfork is back).

DE = Nink/Jones/Ayers is a good 3 man rotation. Give Moore a chance to develop before you decide you want to upgrade him.

Picking a DL guy would not surprise me though which is why I made notes on why I would probably not assuming in FA we sign back Ayers & Wilfork.

DaBruinz said:

QB - The Pats drafted Garappolo and he could, very well, be the heir apparent to Brady. Only time will tell. The Patriots did sign Garrett Gilbert at the end of the 2014 season to their practice squad to give them a 3rd QB. This was after trying to sign David Fales to their PS from Chicago's only to have Chicago promote him to their pro-roster.

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As a not-so-minor point, teams can't do that. They can sign someone from another team's PS to their 53 without the current team releasing the player, but they can't snatch someone away just to put him on the PS. [This is why some of us were confused by the news that the Pats were trying to get Fales.]

BobDigital said:

DT - Unless you pick a guy in the 1st I wouldn't pick one. You don't need a good player you need an impact starter that you replace Wilfork with. A rotation player like Siliga/Branch/Jones does not significantly upgrade the team. I think they have other areas more in need of an impact starting in 2015 so I punt on meaningful addressing DT this year (assuming Wilfork is back).

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I agree that if the Pats draft DT it should be someone viewed as a Wilfork successor - a bigger DT who is capable of stopping the run, to complement Easley. Ideally someone who can push the pocket and ideally get a bit of penetration, and not just a space eater. Right now there are 5 guys who seem to me to potentially fill this role, 4 of whom I expect to be top-40 picks, and one wild card:

- Danny Shelton, Washington. 6'2" 332#. A NT, but with excellent disruptive capability.
- Eddie Goldman, Florida St. 6'4" 320#. More like Suh than a pure NT. Athletic enough that he played DE last year.
- Marcus Brown, Texas. 6'2" 320#.
- Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma. 6'6" 350#. Ridiculously athletic for a big man.
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- Terry Williams, East Carolina. 6'1" 330-350#. Some have suggested that he is a 1st round talent, though he is likely to be a late day 2 pick at best, and probably a day 3 pick. Has had off-field issues for the past, and plays for a smaller school.

I'd consider one of the first 4 guys with our 1st round pick, or possibly a slate trade back for Brown and Phillips. Otherwise I think Williams is an interesting option if he checks out. The other 2 guys who may get some interest are Carl Davis from Iowa (6'5" 315#) and junior Ellis McCarthy from UCLA (6'4" 330#), but I'm personally not sold on either.

After today's game, regardless of whether Wilfork comes back next year or not, I'd be comfortable with Branch being signed as someone who can help fill Wilfork's shoes. Branch-Siliga-Easley-Combination of Jones/draft pick/FA is a pretty good defensive tackle rotation. And it wouldn't necessarily need a high draft pick.

I still think pass rusher is the number 1 need.

Followed by offensive guard, defensive tackle and offensive tackle.

If w could pick up another wr in free agency, like we did with lafell, it would save us wasting a draft pick.

Ochmed Jones said:

I still think pass rusher is the number 1 need.

Followed by offensive guard, defensive tackle and offensive tackle.

If w could pick up another wr in free agency, like we did with lafell, it would save us wasting a draft pick.

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The draft could break like that for us. Edge pass-rushers might be the deepest position. One could fall into a slight trade-up range. Should get a good guard at 64. And, I think Terry Williams will be a solid back-up at worst if he stays out of trouble. Maybe, take him with supplemental pick. Maybe, double-dip on the ol in the 4th.

I'm a Siliga fan. I think he's starting caliber and only 24. He could still get better.

Branch looks like a quality depth player. Chris Jones isn't a bad 4th DT.

If Easley can come back strong, I like the group of Siliga, Easley, Branch, and Jones.